Lake Oswego HCA Report 3_10_23DRAFT
Source: Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR
HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS
(OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10)
20-YEAR HOUSING NEED
2023 - 2043
February 2023
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1
Acknowledgments
Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego. Johnson Economics and the City of
Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document.
City Staff
Advisory Committees
Consultants
Johnson Economics
MIG
This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8: Interpretation of Goal 10
Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and
Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of
Oregon.
City of Lake Oswego
380 A Ave.
Lake Oswego, OR 97034
(503) 635-0270
Johnson Economics
621 SW Alder Street
Suite 605
Portland, OR 97205
(503) 295-7832
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION 3
II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4
A. POPULATION GROWTH 5
B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH & SIZE 5
C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5
D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6
E. HOUSING UNITS 6
F. AGE TRENDS 6
G. INCOME TRENDS 8
H. POVERTY STATISTICS 9
I. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 9
III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 11
A. HOUSING TENURE 11
B. HOUSING STOCK 11
C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 11
D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 12
E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 13
F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 14
G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 15
IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 17
V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS - 2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 23
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3
I. INTRODUCTION
This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land
need are forecast to 2043 consistent with 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.1 This
report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land
need analysis, based on those projections.
The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were:
▪ Portland State University Population Research Center
▪ Metro
▪ U.S. Census
▪ Claritas2
▪ Oregon Employment Department
▪ City of Lake Oswego
▪ Clackamas County
▪ Other sources are identified as appropriate.
This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census, and the American Community
Survey (ACS). All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many
demographic and housing subjects.
One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets, which takes place over several years following
the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of
Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets
utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet
available, with the next data release expected in 2023.
Despite the limitations, the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed
above in Lake Oswego, as of 2020.
For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing, this analysis relies on the American Community Survey
(ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a
representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of
the relevant geography. This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5 -year estimates. The
5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates.
1 ORS 197.628; OAR 660-025
2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation. It licenses data from the Nielson
Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary
data with data from the U.S. Census, Postal Service, and other federal sources, as well as local-level sources such as Equifax, Vallassis
and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of
long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources.
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4
II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
SUMMARY
The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010
Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates, forecasted forward to
2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022.
▪ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the
Portland metropolitan region.
▪ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size
to Oregon City regionally, or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide. Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population
of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin, and about 75% the population of Tigard.
▪ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In
contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 2 6% and 25% respectively. (US
Census and PSU Population Research Center)
FIGURE 2.1: LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
▪ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households
since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in
2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state
(63%). Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period.
2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth
(Census)(Census)00-10 (PSU)10-23
Population1 35,278 36,619 4%41,550 13%
Households 2 14,824 15,893 7%17,481 10%
Families 3 9,775 10,079 3%11,842 17%
Housing Units 4 15,668 16,995 8%18,345 8%
Group Quarters Population 5 163 222 36%329 48%
Household Size (non-group)2.37 2.29 -3%2.36 3%
Avg. Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2%2.97 3%
2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth
(Census)(Census)00-10 (Proj.)10-23
Per Capita ($)$42,166 $53,652 27%$74,600 39%
Median HH ($)$71,597 $84,186 18%$123,300 46%
SOURCE: Census, Metro Consolidated Forecast, PSU Population Research Center, and Johnson Economics
Census Tables: DP-1 (2000, 2010); DP-3 (2000); S1901; S19301
1 From Census, PSU Population Research Center, growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023
2 2023 Households = (2023 population - Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size
3 Ratio of 2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS 5-year Estimates
4 2023 housing units are the '20 Census total plus new units permitted from '20 through '22 (source: Census, City)
5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-year ACS estimates 2017-2021
PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES, AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5
▪ Lake Oswego’s estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County
average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44.
A. POPULATION GROWTH
Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower
than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26% since 2000, while
other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland’s
population grew by an estimated 19% during this period (PSU Population Research Center).
B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH & SIZE
As of 2023, the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650
households. This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period. The growth since 2000 has
paced the growth in new housing units, which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year.
There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have
fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become “empty nesters.” While this
trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide, there are limits to how far the average can
fall.
Lake Oswego’s average household size of 2.4 people, with 68% family households, is similar to Clackamas County
(2.6 persons; 69% families).
Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021 (latest
data available), according to the Census. Renter households are more likely to be one-person households, with 75%
having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons.
FIGURE 2.2: NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD, CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO
SOURCE: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC
Census Tables: B25009 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS
As of the 2021 ACS, 68% of Lake Oswego households were family households, up from an 63.4% of households in
2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.
The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living
together. In 2023, family households in Lake Oswego has an estimated average size of 2.97 people.
20%
38%
19%
18%
4%
2%
0%
40%
35%
11%
11%
3%
1%
0%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
1-person
2-person
3-person
4-person
5-person
6-person
7-or-more
Share of Households
Ho
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
S
i
z
e
Renter
Owner
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6
D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION
As of the 2020 Census, the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8% of the total
population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons,
dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters . For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are
removed from the estimated population total, before determin ing the number of other types of housing that are
needed for non-group households. In Lake Oswego, nearly 90% of the group quarters population is found in assisted
living facilities.
E. HOUSING UNITS
Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units
since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the
growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace
with growing need.
As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households.
This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%.
Residential Permits: An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000, with 24% being multi-
family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade.
FIGURE 2.3: HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS, CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO
SOURCE: HUD
F. AGE TRENDS
The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census
and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates.
As the chart shows, there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population,
while older cohorts have grown in share. This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby
Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county, with a similar share of children,
but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Housing Permits Multi-Family
Single Family
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7
FIGURE 2.4: AGE COHORT TRENDS, 2000 - 2021
SOURCE: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC
Census Tables: QT-P1 (2000); S0101 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
▪ The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years. Still, an estimated
79% of the population is under 65 years of age.
▪ In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39
years nationally.
Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for
comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with
children. However, at 21%, the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures.
FIGURE 2.5: SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN/ POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS (LAKE OSWEGO)
SOURCE: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC
Census Tables: B11005; S0101 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
20
%
10
%
10
%
16
%
21
%
11
%
6%
4%
1%
18
%
10
%
9%
12
%
16
%
14
%
14
%
5%
2%
17
%
11
%
12
%
14
%
13
%
13
%
12
%
5%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Lake Oswego (2000)
Lake Oswego (2021)
Clack. Co. (2021)
31%
28%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Lake Oswego Oregon USA
Share of Households with Children
21%
18%16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Lake Oswego Oregon USA
Share of Population Over 65 Years
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8
G. INCOME TRENDS
The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego’s income trends.
FIGURE 2.6: INCOME TRENDS, 2000 – 2023
▪ Lake Oswego’s estimated median household income was $123,000 in 2023. This is nearly 40% higher than the
Clackamas County median of $88,500, and 75% higher than the statewide median of $70,000.
▪ Lake Oswego’s per capita income is roughly $75,000.
▪ Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an
estimated 34% over this period, so the local median income has well exceeded inflation. This is not the case in
many regions and nationally, where income growth has not kept pace with inflation.
Figure 2.7 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are
those households earning between $200k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k
(27%).
▪ 41% of households earn less than $100,000.
▪ Roughly 19% of households earn less than $50k per year.
FIGURE 2.7: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS, 2021
SOURCE: US Census, Census Tables: S1901 (2021 ACS 5-yr Est.)
2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth
(Census)(Census)00-10 (Proj.)10-23
Per Capita ($)$42,166 $53,652 27%$74,600 39%
Median HH ($)$71,597 $84,186 18%$123,300 46%
SOURCE: Census, Metro Consolidated Forecast, PSU Population Research Center, and Johnson Economics
Census Tables: DP-1 (2000, 2010); DP-3 (2000); S1901; S19301
PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
3%
2%
4%
4%
6%
11%
11%
20%
12%
27%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000 or more
Household Income Groups
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9
H. POVERTY STATISTICS
According to the US Census, the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4% over the most recent period
reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official
poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%, and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period:
▪ The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups, but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%. The
rate is 4% among those 18 to 64 years of age. The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%.
▪ For those without a high school diploma, the poverty rate is 11%.
▪ Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%, while it is 7% for those who are unemployed.
Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report.
FIGURE 2.8: POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY (LAKE OSWEGO)
SOURCE: US Census
Census Tables: S1701 (2021 ACS 5-yr Est.)
I. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS
This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing.
Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according
to the Census Employment Dynamics Database. These figures reflect “covered employment” as of 2019, the most
recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal
unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and
therefore is not a complete picture of local employment. The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators
of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures.
3 Census Tables: S1701 (2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
3%
4%
5%
2%
7%
11%
10%
7%
3%
0%5%10%15%20%
Under 18 years
18 to 64 years
65 years and over
Employed
Unemployed
Less than high school
High school
Some college, associate's
Bachelor's degree or higher
Poverty Level of Subgroups
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10
As of 2017, the most recent year available, the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment
jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these, an estimated 2,250 or 10%, are held by local residents, while nearly 21,000
employees commute into the city from elsewhere. This general pattern is fairly common among many communities
in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here. The most common homes of local workers commuting
into the city are Portland, Beaverton, or Tigard.
Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their
employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller
shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley.
FIGURE 2.9: COMMUTING PATTERNS (PRIMARY JOBS), LAKE OSWEGO
Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio. There are an estimated 23,000
jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego. This represents 1.3 jobs per
household. There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities, but it can provide a guide
to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city .
There is an average of 1.0 jobs held for each Lake Oswego households, a majority of which are located outside the
city.
20,900
Work in Lake Oswego,
live elsewhere
15,800
Live in Hillsboro,
work elsewhere
2,250
Live and work
in Lake Oswego
90% / 10%12% / 88%
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11
III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS
This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego. This profile forms
the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared.
A. HOUSING TENURE
Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households. The 2021 ACS estimates that
71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed
since 2000. The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County (73%) and lower statewide (63%).
B. HOUSING STOCK
As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5%
(includes ownership and rental units). The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000, or growth
of over 17%.
FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS, BY PROPERTY TYPE, 2023
SOURCE: US Census, City of Lake Oswego
Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census. Detached single-family homes
represent an estimated 63% of housing units.
Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21% of units, and other types of attached homes
represent 16% of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are
separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1% of the inventory.
C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS
Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have . In general,
owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms, while renter -occupied units are much
more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms.
63%
9%
1%6%
21%
0%0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Single
Detached
Single
Attached
Duplex 3- or 4-plex 5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Lake Oswego, Oregon
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12
FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS, 2021
SOURCE: US Census
Census Tables: B25042 (2021 ACS 5-year Estimates)
D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE
As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes, which is related to
why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among
a range of structure types. About 18% of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes,
while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60% of rental units are in larger apartment complexes.
FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE, FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING
OWNERSHIP HOUSING
RENTAL HOUSING
Sources: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS, CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO
0%
2%
14%
33%
39%
11%
6%
27%
43%
19%
5%
1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
Studio
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
3 bedrooms
4 bedrooms
5 or more
Number of Bedrooms
Renter
Owner
Single
Detached
Single
Attached Duplex 3- or 4-plex 5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Total
Units
Totals:10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008
Percentage:81.2%9.9%0.1%2.6%6.0%0.2%0.0%100%
OWNERSHIP HOUSING
Single
Detached
Single
Attached Duplex 3- or 4-plex 5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Total
Units
Totals:934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337
Percentage:17.5%6.2%4.7%12.7%58.9%0.0%0.0%100%
RENTAL HOUSING
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13
FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE, BY SHARE
Sources: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS, CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO
E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK
Lake Oswego’s housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time. The greatest periods of development
in Lake Oswego were in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Roughly 15% of the housing stock has been built since 2000.
FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS
SOURCE: US Census
Census Tables: B25036 (2021 ACS 5-year Estimates)
▪ Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on-
site survey of all local housing that is beyond the scope of this analysis . Census categories related to housing
condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing, which was
more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation. Age of units serves as the closest
reliable proxy for condition with available data.
▪ For ownership units, older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some
repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear -and-
81%
10%
0%3%6%0%0%
18%
6%5%
13%
59%
0%0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Single
Detached
Single
Attached
Duplex 3- or 4-plex 5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Sh
a
r
e
o
f
U
n
i
t
s
Unit Type
Lake Oswego, Oregon
Owner
Rental
7%8%
17%
20%
23%
10%
7%
3%
5%
9%8%
20%
25%
23%
5%5%
1%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Year Housing Unit Built
Owner
Renter
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14
tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not
universally true.
F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES
Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household
income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30% or less on housing costs is a common measure
of “affordability” used by HUD and others, and in the analysis presented in this report.)
As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30% of their income on housing,
while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing
costs. Of those earning less than $20,000, an estimated 91% of owner households spend more than 30% of income
on housing costs and 100% of renters. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a
majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher
income levels, there are relatively few households in these lower income segments, compared to most other cities.
In total, the US Census estimates that over 31% of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30% of income towards
housing costs (2021 American Community Survey, B25106)
FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP
Sources: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
Census Table: B25106 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
Housing is generally one of a household’s largest living costs, if not the largest. The ability to find affordable housing
options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income
households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs, allow for more household income
to be put to other needs, including saving.
The following figures shows the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent4 for local renter
households only. This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49% of renters spending more than 30% of
their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29% of renters are spending 50% or more of their income on housing
and are considered severely rent-burdened.
4 The Census defines Gross Rent as “the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities (electricity, gas, and water and sewer)
and fuels (oil, coal, kerosene, wood, etc.) if these are paid by the renter (or paid for the renter by someone else).” Housing costs for homeowners
include mortgage, property taxes, insurance, utilities and condo or HOA dues.
91%
82%
74%
51%
12%
100%
92%88%
64%
16%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Less than
$20,000
$20,000 to
$34,999
$35,000 to
$49,999
$50,000 to
$74,999
$75,000 or
moreSh
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Household Income
Owner Households
Renter Households
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15
Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners . Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly
for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable
rental units in Lake Oswego, as in most communities.
FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT, LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS
Sources: US Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
Census Table: B25070 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING
Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in
Lake Oswego, with a total of 76 units. These are properties that are funded through HUD programs, tax credits and
other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households. All of these units, save one, are offered
for elderly residents. The Marylhurst Commons, currently under de velopment, is planned to offer 100 affordable
units for families. Completion is expected in 2024.
The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow
low-income participants to find rental units to anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find
participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market -rate rental unit. The unit does not
have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property.
The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an
ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points.
Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers.
This population may also be served by other available affordable units.
Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the homeless population in the total
Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory
locations such as RV parks or campgrounds, as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make
an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed th at the homeless are undercounted in the
Census.
The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households
experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County5 found 597 homeless individuals on the streets, in shelters, or
5 Figures are for the entire County
3%
22%
25%
14%
7%
29%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
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% of Income to Gross Rent
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16
other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 homeless individuals represent 0.1% of the county’s
total estimated population in 2022.
▪ An estimated 45% of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter, while 55% were unsheltered.
▪ The total included 51 children (under age 18), and 26 youth (aged 18-24).
▪ Of those indicating a gender, 60% of those counted identified as men, 40% women.
▪ 5% of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5% in the general population.
▪ 304 individuals, or 51%, were counted as “chronically homeless”.6
While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count homelessness across the country in
a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of homeless individuals and
households. People who are doubled up, couch surfing, or experiencing domestic violence may not always be
accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing
homelessness, the count is conducted in late January, when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year
due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting.
A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a
regional basis included estimates of the homeless population in Oregon communities, including Lake Oswego. The
approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of homeless
school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act. The analysis estimates 239 homeless households in
Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with
friends or relatives. These households are a component of cur rent and future housing need.
The persistence of homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing
types to shelter this population, from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability
of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low -income people and the potential shortfall is
included in the following sections of this report.
6 HUD defines “chronically homeless” as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act, who has been in
uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo. or on four separate occasions in the last three years; or has been in institutional care for less
than 90 days; or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition.
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17
IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO)
The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State
University Population Research Center (PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is
forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010.
FIGURE 4.1: CURRENT HOUSING PROFILE (2023)
*This table reflects population, household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1
We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living
situations). Average household size is 2.4 persons.
There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%. This includes
units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent.
ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND
Following the establishment of the current housing p rofile, the current housing demand was determined based
upon the age and income characteristics of current households.
The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their
home (tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate
housing cost level of each. This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census
American Community Survey (tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates).
The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs . For
instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income
households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands
would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher
income households pay a decreasing share down to 20% for the highest income households.
While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30% of their income for housing, this
is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units
affordable to them at no more than 30% of income, rather than more expensive units.
SOURCE
Total 2023 Population:41,550 PSU Pop. Research Center
- Estimated group housing population:329 (0.8% of Total)US Census
Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population:41,221 (Total - Group)
Avg. HH Size:2.36 US Census
Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households:17,481 (Pop/HH Size)
Total Housing Units:18,345 (Occupied + Vacant)Census 2010 + permits
Occupied Housing Units:17,481 (= # of HH)
Vacant Housing Units:864 (Total HH - Occupied)
Current Vacancy Rate:4.7%(Vacant units/ Total units)
Sources: Johnson Economics, City of Lake Oswego, PSU Population Research Center, U.S. Census
CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS (2023)
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18
Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences) equal to the number of households in
the study area (17,481). The breakdown of tenure (owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS.
FIGURE 4.2: ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND (2023)
Sources: PSU Population Research Center, Claritas Analytics., Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
Census Tables: B25007, B25106, B25118 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
Claritas Analytics: Estimates of income by age of householder
The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the
Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less
than $15,000) would have to cost $80,000 or less. Affordable rent for someone in this category would be $400 or
less.
The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization, at an interest rate of 5% (somewhat
less than the current market rate, but in line with historic norms), with 10% down payment. These assumptions are
designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households . The 30-year mortgage
commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000’s, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending
standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most
buyers, it is common for homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, to pay significantly less than this using available
programs.
Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to
forecast beyond the short term. The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years. The
Price Range # of
Households Income Range % of
Total Cumulative
$0k - $80k 330 Less than $15,000 2.7%2.7%
$80k - $130k 267 $15,000 - $24,999 2.2%4.9%
$130k - $180k 357 $25,000 - $34,999 2.9%7.8%
$180k - $250k 636 $35,000 - $49,999 5.2%13.0%
$250k - $350k 1,051 $50,000 - $74,999 8.6%21.7%
$350k - $440k 1,147 $75,000 - $99,999 9.4%31.1%
$440k - $510k 1,109 $100,000 - $124,999 9.1%40.2%
$510k - $560k 892 $125,000 - $149,999 7.3%47.5%
$560k - $680k 1,827 $150,000 - $199,999 15.0%62.5%
$680k +4,577 $200,000+37.5%100.0%
Totals:12,191 % of All:69.7%
Rent Level # of
Households Income Range % of
Total Cumulative
$0 - $400 348 Less than $15,000 6.6%6.6%
$400 - $700 383 $15,000 - $24,999 7.2%13.8%
$700 - $900 554 $25,000 - $34,999 10.5%24.3%
$900 - $1300 621 $35,000 - $49,999 11.7%36.0%
$1300 - $1800 837 $50,000 - $74,999 15.8%51.9%
$1800 - $2200 764 $75,000 - $99,999 14.4%66.3%
$2200 - $2500 505 $100,000 - $124,999 9.6%75.9%
$2500 - $2800 410 $125,000 - $149,999 7.8%83.6%
$2800 - $3400 271 $150,000 - $199,999 5.1%88.7%
$3400 +596 $200,000+11.3%100.0%All Households
Totals:5,290 % of All:30.3%17,481
Rental
Ownership
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19
general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980’s, but coming out of the recent inflationary period,
the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to
levels not seen in almost 20 years.
CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY
The profile of current housing demand (Figure 4.2) represents the preference and affordability levels of households.
In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some
households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household’s
own/rent preference, or being unaffordable (requiring more than 30% of gross income).
A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake
Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types
(single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5 -year estimates
from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates.
▪ An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental
units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit
higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels. The inventory includes vacant units.
▪ 81% of ownership units are detached homes, and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5% percent of rental
units are either single family homes or manufactured homes, while 59% are in structures of 5 units or more.
▪ Of total housing units, an estimated 63% are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37% percent are some
sort of attached unit type.
FIGURE 4.3: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE (2023)
Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
Census Tables: B25004, B25032, B25063, B25075 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
▪ The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing
units by value (ownership) or gross rent (rentals).
▪ Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end
of the rental spectrum.
▪ Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or
homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of
81%
10%
0%3%6%0%0%
18%
6%5%
13%
59%
0%0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Single
Detached
Single
Attached
Duplex 3- or 4-plex 5+ Units MFR Manuf.
home
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Owner
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CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20
current property value or current housing cost to the owner , not the current market pricing of homes for sale
in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently
estimated to have low value.
FIGURE 4.4: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY, ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY (2023)
Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
Census Tables: B25004, B25032, B25063, B25075 (2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates)
▪ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least
$125,000 per year, which is close the median income. There is very little housing available to those in lower
income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable
to those earning less than this.
COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY
A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies
between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the
number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%.
In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while
the upper end of the market is generally well supplied. This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at
higher property values, which matches the community’s high average household incomes but leaves some
households underserved.
The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range.
Therefore, this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered . However, the greatest unmet need is
found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in
housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent.
Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form, comparing the estimated number of households in given
income ranges, and the supply of units currently valued (ownership) or priced (rentals) within those income ranges.
The data is presented for owner and renter households.
Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated
Price Level Units Rent Level Units
Less than $15,000 $0k - $80k 135 $0 - $400 70
$15,000 - $24,999 $80k - $130k 129 $400 - $700 43
$25,000 - $34,999 $130k - $180k 170 $700 - $900 106
$35,000 - $49,999 $180k - $250k 406 $900 - $1300 518
$50,000 - $74,999 $250k - $350k 735 $1300 - $1800 1,852
$75,000 - $99,999 $350k - $440k 839 $1800 - $2200 1,289
$100,000 - $124,999 $440k - $510k 753 $2200 - $2500 602
$125,000 - $149,999 $510k - $560k 924 $2500 - $2800 223
$150,000 - $199,999 $560k - $680k 2,217 $2800 - $3400 229
$200,000+$680k +6,700 $3400 +404
71%13,008 29%5,337
Income Range
Ownership Housing Rental Housing
Share of Total Units
1%
1%
2%
5%
14%
12%
7%
6%
13%
39%
0%10%20%30%40%
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21
FIGURE 4.5: COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO
ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS (2023)
Sources: PSU Population Research Center, City of Lake Oswego, Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
FIGURE 4.6: COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO
ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS (2023)
Sources: PSU Population Research Center, City of Lake Oswego, Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
The home value and rent segments which show a “surplus” in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property
values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around
those levels. These levels will be too costly for some (i.e. require more than 30% in gross income) or “too affordable”
for others (i.e. they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose).
In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner
households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing. There is a need for more
rental units at lower rent levels (<$900/mo.).
HOME SALE PRICES
It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property
value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For
instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively
0
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2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
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Income Cohorts
Owner Households vs. Current Units
Est. Owner Households
Units Valued at Income Level
0
500
1,000
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2,000
#
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Income Cohorts
Renter Households vs. Current Units
Est. Renter Households
Units Affordable at Income Level
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22
low housing costs. This indicates that one owner household is living in a “lower value” unit. It does not indicate that
units at this price point are available on the current market.
If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current
achievable market prices. For this reason, many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section
will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant.
For reference, this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the
market (Figure 4.7).
• The median sale price was $860,000.
• The average (mean) sale price was $1,075,000.
• The average price per square foot was $430/s.f.
• The median square footage was 2,300 s.f.
FIGURE 4.7: LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES (12 MONTHS)
Sources: RMLS, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
• 48% of sales were priced above $900,000.
• 34% of sales were priced between $500,000 and $899,000.
• Only 18% of sales were priced at less than $500,000.
• Only 7% of sales were priced below $300,000.
Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75% of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least $600,000. Homes in
this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the
median household income of $123,000.
Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the
current for-sale market (75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households.
* * *
The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following
section.
72%0%
8%
20%
Home Sales by Unit Type
Detached Home Manuf. Home
Attached Home Condo
0
3
43
47
31
39
56
67
66
319
0 100 200 300 400
<$100,000
$100,000 - $199,000
$200,000 - $299,000
$300,000 - $399,000
$400,000 - $499,000
$500,000 - $599,000
$600,000 - $699,000
$700,000 - $799,000
$800,000 - $899,000
$900,000+
Home Sales by Price Level
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23
V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS - 2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO)
The projected future (20-year) housing profile (Figure 5.1) in the study area is based on the current housing profile
(2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate . The projected future growth is the
forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated
Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region. This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest
growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1% per year.
FIGURE 5.1: FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE (2043)
Sources: PSU Population Research Center, Metro, Census, JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC
*Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population, household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1
The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but
with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is
expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons, meaning more smaller households to house the same population.
(The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units
includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.)
PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND (2043)
The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of
current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy
assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step . Therefore, the need identified below is the
total need for actual households in occupied units (19,298).
The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their
home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of
each. The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households.
The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing
costs, from 30% for low income households down to 20% for the highest income households.
The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization, at an interest rate of 5%, with 10%
down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the fut ure,
SOURCE
2023 Population (Minus Group Pop.)41,221 (Est. 2022 pop. - Group Housing Pop.)PSU
Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05%Metro Coordinated Forecast (2021)Metro
2043 Population (Minus Group Pop.)41,629 (Total 2043 Population - Group Housing Pop.)
Estimated group housing population:332 1.7% of total pop. (held constant from 2022)US Census
Total Estimated 2043 Population:41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast (2021)Metro
Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households:19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast (2021)Metro
New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816
Avg. Household Size:2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census
Total Housing Units:20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant
Occupied Housing Units:19,298 (= Number of Non-Group Households)
Vacant Housing Units:1,016 (= Total Units - Occupied Units)
Projected Market Vacancy Rate:5.0%Stabilized vacancy assumption
PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS (2023 - 2043)
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24
these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand . Income levels and price
levels are presented in 2023 dollars.
Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand (current and new households, without v acancy)
in 2043.
FIGURE 5.2: PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND (2043)
Sources: Census, Claritas Analytics, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is
anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next
20 years to under 70% from 71%.
Price Range # of
Households Income Range % of Total Cumulative
$0k - $80k 364 Less than $15,000 2.7%2.7%Extremely
$80k - $130k 295 $15,000 - $24,999 2.2%4.9%Low Income
$130k - $180k 394 $25,000 - $34,999 2.9%7.8%Very Low
$180k - $250k 702 $35,000 - $49,999 5.2%13.0%Income
$250k - $350k 1,160 $50,000 - $74,999 8.6%21.7%Low Income <80% MFI
$350k - $440k 1,266 $75,000 - $99,999 9.4%31.1%
$440k - $510k 1,224 $100,000 - $124,999 9.1%40.2%
$510k - $560k 984 $125,000 - $149,999 7.3%47.5%
$560k - $680k 2,017 $150,000 - $199,999 15.0%62.5%
$680k +5,053 $200,000+37.5%100.0%
Totals:13,458 % of All:69.7%
Rent Level # of
Households Income Range % of Total Cumulative
$0 - $400 385 Less than $15,000 6.6%6.6%Extremely
$400 - $700 423 $15,000 - $24,999 7.2%13.8%Low Income
$700 - $900 611 $25,000 - $34,999 10.5%24.3%Very Low
$900 - $1300 686 $35,000 - $49,999 11.7%36.0%Income
$1300 - $1800 924 $50,000 - $74,999 15.8%51.9%Low Income <80% MFI
$1800 - $2200 843 $75,000 - $99,999 14.4%66.3%
$2200 - $2500 558 $100,000 - $124,999 9.6%75.9%
$2500 - $2800 453 $125,000 - $149,999 7.8%83.6%
$2800 - $3400 299 $150,000 - $199,999 5.1%88.7%
$3400 +658 $200,000+11.3%100.0%All Units
Totals:5,840 % of All:30.3%19,298
<30% MFI
<50% MFI
Ownership
Rental
<30% MFI
<50% MFI
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25
COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY
The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above (Figure 5.2) was compared to the current housing
inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and
price range (Figure 5.3).
This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in
most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units . An average
vacancy rate of 5% is assumed for the purpose of this analysis.
FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS (2043), LAKE OSWEGO
Sources: PSU, City of Lake Oswego, Census, Claritas Analytics, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
▪ The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043.
▪ Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be
rental units. This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental
units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate
will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than
ownership units.
▪ There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income
trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges ($300k to $600k).
▪ The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points . Market rents are
currently clustered in the $1,300 to $2,200 range in current dollars. Therefore, most units are to be found in
this range.
▪ There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached
single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to
maintain housing costs that are affordable (see more detail below).
Single
Detached
Single
Attached 2-unit 3- or 4-
plex
5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Total
Units
% of
Units
Totals:708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0%
Percentage:69.2%12.9%3.1%5.6%9.0%0.2%0.0%100%
Single
Detached
Single
Attached 2-unit 3- or 4-
plex
5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Total
Units
% of
Units
Totals:52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0%
Percentage:5.5%9.2%7.7%15.7%61.9%0.0%0.0%100%
Single
Detached
Single
Attached 2-unit 3- or 4-
plex
5+ Units
MFR
Manuf.
home
Boat, RV,
other temp
Total
Units
% of
Units
Totals:760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100%
Percentage:38.6%11.2%5.3%10.4%34.4%0.1%0.0%100%
Unit Type:
OWNERSHIP HOUSING
Multi-Family
Unit Type:
RENTAL HOUSING
Multi-Family
Unit Type:
TOTAL HOUSING UNITS
Multi-Family
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26
Needed Unit Types
The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single
detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership
households over the next 20 years. However, an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached
housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers.
▪ 39% of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is
projected to be some form of attached housing.
▪ Single attached units (townhomes on individual lots) are projected to meet roughly 11% of future need. These
are defined as units on separate tax lots, attached by a wall but separately metered, the most common example
being townhome units.
▪ Duplex, triplex, and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16% of the total need, reflecting new
state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an
accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement
unit.)
▪ 34% of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+ attached units.
▪ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of
some low-income households for both ownership and rental.
▪ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are
projected to be attached forms.
▪ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings, with 62% projected in rental
properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are
projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes.
Group Housing Needs: There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based
on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current
levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population
growth is modest.
In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego’s group housing population lives in nursing
facilities.
NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS
Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment, based on the projected
demographics of new households to the market area. The needed affordability levels presented here are based on
current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels.
Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of “low income” used to set rent and income limits for
various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income
in Clackamas County of $106k in 2022, based on a family of four, while the median income in Lake Oswego was a
higher $123k.
For this analysis, the estimated Median Family Income (MFI) for a family of four ($106k) was adjusted to match the
average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the
city average.
Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income
ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable
unit or voucher to find housing affordability. Those at 60% to 100% MFI may find housing in older and substandard
market rate rentals, manufactured homes, and middle housing types.
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27
FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS
Sources: HUD, Census, Claritas, JOHNSON ECONOMICS
▪ Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current
need for more affordable units. For all households, current and new, to pay 30% or less of their income towards
housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This
indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to
become less expensive to meet the needs of current households.
▪ There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum ($900 and less).
▪ The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be
insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the
estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for
sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes,
condos, and small detached homes, often on smaller lots.
Subsidized Affordability Housing Need
As alluded to in Figure 5.4, some low-income households, and particularly the lowest income households typically
need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and
other household spending needs.
Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043. The table
uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common
affordability level for tax credit properties.
▪ There is existing and on-going need at these levels, based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas
County. An estimated 12% of households qualify as at least “low income” or lower on the income scale, while
9% of households qualify as “extremely low income”. (Again, this is based on the official state measure of
Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs,
which is relatively high.)
Income Level
(Rounded)
Owner
Units
Renter
Units Total Share Common Housing Product
Extremely Low Inc.< 30% MFI < $27,500 56 149 205 10%Government-subsidized; Voucher;
Shelter; Transitional
Very Low Income 30% - 60% MFI $27.5k - $55k 95 221 317 16%
Aging/substandard rentals;
Government-subsidized; Voucher;
Manufactured homes
Low Income 60% - 80% MFI $55k - $73k 71 120 190 10%
Aging apartments; Government-
subsidized; Plexes; Aging single-
detached; Small homes
Middle Income 80% - 120% MFI $73k - $110k 134 172 306 16%
Single-detached homes;
Townhomes; Condominiums;
Newer apartments
Upper Income > 120% MFI > $110,000 669 282 951 48%
Single-detached homes;
Townhomes; Condominiums; New
apartments
TOTAL:1,024 944 1,968 100%
Household Income Segment
CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO | HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28
FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT LOW INCOME LEVELS, LAKE OSWEGO
Sources: OHCS, Claritas, JOHNSON ECONOMICS, HUD
* Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg. Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons.
▪ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income
households and many other low-income households at “affordable” housing cost levels. Often the lowest
income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are
more likely to serve those earning 50% to 60% of MFI.
Homeless Population Housing Need: Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to
maintain a fairly stable number of homeless individuals and households over this period. Homeless individuals and
families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances, ranging from emergency
shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-
income population shown in prior figures.
Agricultural Worker Housing: There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on
the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this
indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the
planning period. However, this population may also be served by other available affordable units.
# of Units % of All # of Units % of All # of Units % of All
Extremely Low Inc.≤ 30% MFI ≤$26,800 1,492 9%1,697 9%205 10%
Very Low Income 30% - 50% MFI ≤$44,700 1,560 9%1,771 9%212 11%
Low Income 50% - 80% MFI ≤$71,600 2,075 12%2,370 12%295 15%
TOTAL:≤ 80% MFI ≤$71,600 5,127 29%5,839 30%712 36%
Tax Credit ≤ 60% MFI ≤$53,700 3,962 23%4,483 23%521 26%
Income Level*NEW Need (20-Year)Affordablilty Level Current Need (2022)Future Need (2043)