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Lake Oswego Buildable Lands - Methodology and Initial Results 3.17.23Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 1 LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY DRAFT Methodology and Initial Results | March 17, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) for the City. The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI 1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification. This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development. This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status. This step assigns a “Development Status” of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity. This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation, then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1. The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits and unannexed areas with City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan designations. 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGR_Appendix2_Buildable_Lands_Inventory.pdf Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 2 Figure 1. Study Area Map Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets. These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego’s Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1. This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other. Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the “Implementing Zones” column. Zoning and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 3 Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Designations Implementing Zones Zone Purpose Residential Low Density R-15 To provide lands for single-family residential development with densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross acre, and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-10 R-7.5 Residential Medium Density R-5 To provide lands for single- and multi-family residential development with densities ranging from seven to eight dwelling units per gross acre, and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-DD Zone (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise, light, glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area’s transition to higher density residential use, to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size, cost and other amenities and supports the economic feasibility of new construction and development, and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses, including commercial, residential, park, open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities, and which have scenic, historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved and integrated with new development. R-6 The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan. The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures, maintain adequate light and air between structures, and complement the neighborhood’s architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages, off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. (6) Preserving FAN’s historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. Residential High Density R-3 To provide lands for single- and multi-family residential development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per R-2 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 4 Comprehensive Plan Designations Implementing Zones Zone Purpose R-0 gross acre, and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Commercial Neighborhood Commercial (NC) To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood, smaller public facility uses, and residential uses. General Commercial (GC) To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan, as well as residential, public facilities, and cultural uses. Highway Commercial (HC) To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented retail uses which require access to a market area larger than the general commercial zone. This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. Mixed Commerce (MC) To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and which provide a strong visual identity. Intended uses include local and regional convention type facilities, office uses and supporting retail uses. Office Campus (OC) To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus Research and Development (CR&D) To provide a mix of clean, employee-intensive industries, offices and high-density housing with associated services and retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit and the regional transportation network. Campus Institutional (CI) The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. East End General Commercial (EC) To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of higher intensity commercial, residential, and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Industrial Zone (I) The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where general industrial development can be located. Industrial Park Zone (IP) To provide lands where primarily light industrial and employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. Mixed Use West Lake Grove Zones (Townhome Residential - WLG R-2.5, Residential Mixed Use - WLG RMU, and Office- Commercial - WLG OC) To provide zoning for townhome residential, commercial, and mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that accommodates lower intensity commercial, public facility and residential uses; and to provide a transition between the Lake Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. These districts are intended to supply services to a market area that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 5 Comprehensive Plan Designations Implementing Zones Zone Purpose Foothills Mixed Use (FMU) To foster a mix of housing, retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River. Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area. Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community. The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: i. Connect the FMU area with downtown, Tryon Creek, Old Town, the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving, active, and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character, yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings, of long lasting materials, to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses, with urban density, and neighborhood scale retail and office development; and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego’s sense of place. Public Use Public Functions (PF) The Public Functions (PF) zone is intended to specify appropriate land uses and development standards for public uses, such as government services, education, and similar activities. Park and Natural Area (PNA) Park and Natural Area (PNA) The purposes of the Park and Natural Area (PNA) zone are to: i. Protect, preserve, conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational uses, and accessory uses, on property for the future use and enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8, Recreational Needs; and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 6 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 7 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City’s need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for “Publicly Owned/Other” land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City’s residential and employment needs – sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for “Publicly Owned/Other” land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and “Publicly Owned/Other” land, as follows. This land is not included in the inventory. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 8 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City’s employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for “Public/Other” land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County, State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners’ Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University, which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW Parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 9 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 10 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially – in this case the more restrictive constraint applies. Assumptions for these constraints are listed below – they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. 5% Developable Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Hazard Areas Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. 5% Developable Greenway Management Overlay District Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted uses include single-family dwellings and accessory structures associated with such dwellings. 25% Developable Sensitive Lands Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated, while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP – Density transfer possible. RC - Mostly applies to public land and open space tracts, which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, OS tracts in private developments, typically). HBA - Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. RP – 50% Developable RC – 0% Developable HBA – 95% Developable Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 11 Figure 5. Constraints to Development The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres – Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres – Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres – Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 5,889.2 1,307.0 4,582.2 Mixed Use 615.2 120.2 495.0 Non-Residential 212.2 8.4 203.8 Publicly Owned/Other 1,699.0 906.2 792.8 Total 8,415.6 2,341.5 6,090.4 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 12 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed. The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces. • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information. • Review of recent aerial imagery • Discussion and review with City staff and Housing Task Force Generally, vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant – Platted. Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). “Developable Acres” is shown as “0” because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. • Partially Vacant. This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones, this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size: These lots are categorized as “Partially Vacant.” ¼ acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with building value below $200,000 - ¼ acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size: These lots are categorized as “Developed” if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 13 Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix (see Table 3) are applied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Designation Residential Portion Nonresidential Portion Notes West Lake Grove Residential Mixed Use (WLG RMU) 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the same building West Lake Grove Office-Commercial (WLG OC) 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging Site… Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district (see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional (CI) 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I of the Marylhurst Campus. Marylhurst Campus zone – probably needs a special look at any vacant area. Refine based on analysis of Marylhurst campus… ask DR planner? Campus Research & Development (CR&D) 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area East End Commercial (EC) 80% 20% Foothills Mixed Use (FMU) 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of res/non-res mix General Commercial (GC) 30% 70% Highway Commercial (HC) 10% 90% Neighborhood Commercial (NC) 50% 50% Office Campus (OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots, total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type. A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 14 Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Land Type Gross Acres Constrained Area (Acres) Unconstrained Area (Acres) Developable Acres Residential 4,413 951 3,547 345 MixedUse 493 96 399 15 Non-Residential 181 21 160 - Public/Other 3,491 1,309 2,215 - Total 8,578 2,377 6,320 360 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 15 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones. This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage. The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20% of vacant properties, 0% of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20% of vacant properties, 0% of partially vacant properties Assumed Density Table 7 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego. This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis. Table 4. Unit Capacity on Residential and Mixed Use Land Zoning Designation Density Notes Assumption for BLI Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 DU/AC net 2.9 DU/AC net (could increase slightly to assume some middle housing) R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area. 4.3 du/ac net. 4.3 du/ac net. (could increase slightly to assume some middle housing) R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 du/ac net 5.8 du/ac net (could increase slightly to assume some middle housing) Residential-Medium Density Zones R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for single- family. 1,500 for townhouse. ~8 du/ac R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac theoretically possible. ~8 du/ac R-6 First Addition Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for Single- Family. 1,500 for townhouse. ~7 du/ac Residential-High Density Zones Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 16 Zoning Designation Density Notes Assumption for BLI R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac). Townhomes up to 29 du/ac ~12 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac R-W ~12 du/ac Mixed Use Zones West Lake Grove Residential Mixed Use (WLG RMU) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater” ~5 du/ac West Lake Grove Office-Commercial (WLG OC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater” 35 du/ac expected in BFR Staging Site, nothing in other areas Campus Institutional (CI) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater”. Must have commercial on ground floor. Generally applies to Merylhears University, which is treated separately. Campus Research & Development (CR&D) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater” 54 du/ac for projects that include residential (~30% of the district, as above) based on LU 19-0041 East End Commercial (EC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater”. Must have commercial on ground floor. ~56 du/ac Foothills Mixed Use (FMU) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater” ~56 du/ac General Commercial (GC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater”. Must have commercial on ground floor. Residential not allowed “In the GC-zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road” ~27 du/ac based on Mercantile project (LU 18-0026) Highway Commercial (HC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater” 8 du/ac (or R-5 density) for the 10% that may develop as residential Neighborhood Commercial (NC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater”. Must have commercial on ground floor. 67 du/ac for the 50% that may develop as residential (based on LU 07-0031) Office Campus (OC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes “R-5 density or greater” 21 du/ac for the 50% that may develop as residential (based on Galewood Commons Apartments) Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 17 Summary Table 4 describes the net residential developable acres in Mixed Use zones, accounting for employment uses on mixed-use land and assumed right-of-way. Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area. Table 5. Net Developable Acres of Residential and Mixed Use Land Land Type Gross Acres Constrained Area (Acres) Unconstrained Area (Acres) Developable Acres Unit Capacity Residential 4,413 951 3,547 345 1,218 MixedUse 493 96 399 15 178 Non-Residential 181 21 160 - - Public/Other 3,491 1,309 2,215 - - Total 8,578 2,377 6,320 360 1,396 Figure 7. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Residential 1,218 EC/R-0 5 R-0 2 R-10 215 R-10 Comp Plan 468 R-15 114 R-3 22 R-5 104 R-7.5 136 R-7.5 Comp Plan 133 R-DD 10 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 8 Mixed Use 178 CR&D 39 EC 67 GC 12 NC 23 NC/R-0 9 OC/R-3 5 R-0 8 R-3 5 WLG-OC 7 WLG-R RMU 3 Grand Total 1,396 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 18 Additional Capacity: • Remaining Marylhurst University approval: 70 units • Additional Middle Housing Capacity (estimated at 3% of developed lots with single-detached dwellings): 410 Units • Redevelopment on Multifamily and Mixed Use Land: TBD. Further analysis will include a look at “strike price” (current value per square foot), age of structure, and recent trends related to converting office uses to residential uses. Total Unit Capacity: 1,876 Units. Mix (e.g. single detached, middle housing, multi-dwelling) TBD. Next Steps The contents of this inventory will be reviewed by City staff, the Housing Task Force, and other stakeholders. Further analysis into potential redevelopment, the characterization of “partially vacant” land, densities, housing mix, and other attributes of the BLI are expected. This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years.