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Staff Report 07-24-23 PCPH 08-28-23 w-Exh LU 23-0023-R
STAFF REPORT CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO PLANNING AND BUILDING SERVICES DEPARTMENT APPLICANT FILE NO. City of Lake Oswego LU 23-0023, Ordinance 2934 LOCATION STAFF Citywide Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager DATE OF REPORT PLANNING COMMISSION HEARING DATE July 24, 2023 August 28, 2023 I. APPLICANT'S REQUEST The City of Lake Oswego is proposing to adopt an updated Housing Needs Analysis (HNA), to meet the requirements of Oregon House Bill 2003 (2019) and OAR 660-08-0045. (The current HNA was adopted in 2013.) II. APPLICABLE REGULATIONS A. Oregon Statewide Planning Goals Goal 10: Housing B. Interpretation of Goal 10: Housing (OAR Chapter 660, Division 8) OAR 660-008-0045 Housing Capacity Analysis Deadline C. ORS Chapter 197 - Comprehensive Land Use Planning ORS 197.296 Analysis of housing capacity and needed housing by Metro, cities outside of Metro and smaller cities D. City of Lake Oswego Community Development Code LOC 50.07.003.3.c Notice of Public Hearing LOC 50.07.003.4 Hearings before a Hearings Body LOC 50.07.003.16.a Legislative Decision Defined (Quasi-judicial Comp. Plan Map, Zone Map, and CDC Amendments to be processed via Major Developments Procedures) Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0290 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY LOC 50.07.003.16.c Required Notice to DLCD LOC 50.07.003.16.d Planning Commission Recommendation Required LOC 50.07.003.16.e City Council Review and Decision E. Metro Code Urban Growth Management Functional Plan Title 7: Housing Choice [MC 3.07.730] III. BACKGROUND AND DISCUSSION Lake Oswego is a community of over 41,500 residents that has experienced modest, yet steady growth in recent decades. Since 2000, the City has added nearly 6,300 people, a rate of less than 1% per year. At the same time, buildable land within the city has become scarcer, the cost of housing has increased significantly, and the city's housing needs have evolved as a result. Now, the City has an opportunity to take stock of these changes and look forward through a forecast of housing needs over the next 20 years. Per House Bill 2003 (HB 2003) (2019) and HB 3155 (2021), now codified as ORS 197.290 and 197.297(1), the City must analyze what housing is needed for its current and future residents through an update to the Housing Needs Analysis (HNA); the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) has established through OAR 660-08-0045 a timeline that requires the City to adopt an updated HNA by December 31, 2023. The City is then required to develop a Housing Production Strategy (HPS) that outlines what actions the City will take to address those needs prior to December 31, 2024, in order to comply with the law. The City Council first prioritized this work as part of their 2022 goals and initiatives, which included continuing the multi-year work plan to complete work on key housing initiatives— including HB 2003 compliance. Subsequently, the Planning Commission adopted a 2023 goal to, "Continue the multi-year work plan to comply with House Bill 2003 - Housing Needs and Production." The City contracted with consultant MIG and subconsultant Johnson Economics (collectively "consultant team") to assist with this work in Fall 2022. City staff and the consultant team conducted outreach and community engagement related to the 2023 HNA from December 2022 through July 2023. This engagement occurred through several avenues and public events, including an Online Open House, a "Community Forum" event, two Planning Commission work sessions, two City Council study sessions, and three meetings of the City-appointed Ad-Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force per Resolution 22-30, charged with providing high-level policy guidance to the Planning Commission and City Council on their efforts to comply with HB 2003. These events helped to identify general themes and topics of discussion related to initial drafts of the HNA, with later revisions directly informed by the public input collected through these events and the direction provided by the Commission and City Council. The 2023 HNA is in compliance with LCDC Goal 10, Housing, to establish an inventory of the supply of buildable lands within the city, an inventory of the housing capacity of buildable land zoned for residential use, and a projection of anticipated needed housing and how it may, or may not, be Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 2 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 accommodated throughout the city. The proposed 2023 HNA serves the primary purpose of being a factual basis for further work about the policies, programs, and actions that the City can consider to address its current and future housing needs through the HPS. Housing Needs Analysis An HNA is a document, incorporated into a city's comprehensive plan by ordinance, which assesses housing need and capacity over the course of a 20-year planning horizon. An HNA must include the inventory, determination, and analysis required under ORS 197.296(3): (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 ("Needed housing"defined) and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. The City last updated its HNA in 2013 as part of an update to the Comprehensive Plan. House Bill 2003 HB 2003 (2019) was enacted by the Oregon Legislature to meet the housing needs of residents throughout the state by requiring that cities with over 10,000 residents: (1) analyze the future housing needs of their community through an HNA, and (2) develop strategies that promote the development of such needed housing through a Housing Production Strategy (HPS). In November 2020, DLCD adopted implementing rules for HB 2003, which are contained, in part, in OAR 660-008-0045 through -0070. These rules established criteria for compliance, including the components that are required to be included within an HPS Report. Lake Oswego is required by OAR 660-08-045 to adopt an updated HNA by December 31, 2023, and by ORS 197.297(1), enacted in 2021, to update its HNA once every six years thereafter. As such, the City's next HNA is required to be adopted by December 31, 2029. On June 21, 2022, the City Council approved staff's work plan for compliance with HB 2003, including issuing a request for proposals (RFP) to solicit consultant services. Council also committed to appoint an Ad-Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force ("Task Force") to provide high-level policy guidance to the Commission and City Council as the City proceeds with HB 2003 compliance. The Commission held its first work session on this subject on June 27, 2022, providing guidance to staff on the proposed work plan prior to issuing the RFP. (Report continues on next page) Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 3 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 Housing Production Strategy Task Force On October 4, 2022, the City Council adopted Resolution 22-30 creating the Task Force and appointing its members.'The Task Force is comprised of individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds, identities, income ranges, and professions, with representation from elected and appointed officials, members of City boards and commissions, DLCD representatives, housing producers, and housing consumers within Lake Oswego. The goal of the Task Force is to represent a wide range of experiences and ideas related to housing, and to develop recommendations addressing those perspectives. The role of the Task Force is to provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission by reviewing draft materials, providing feedback related to their personal or professional experience and opinions, and informing the broader public about this process through their individual networks. The Task Force may also recommend outreach strategies, Comprehensive Plan amendments, or other actions to update the City's HNA and develop an HPS, consistent with adopted goals and initiatives related to housing. The Task Force is charged with meeting a minimum of five times from December 2022 through late 2024 in order to develop these policy recommendations. At this stage of the project, the Task Force has met three times: • On December 16, 2022, the Task Force held a "kickoff meeting" to establish the organization and management of the Task Force, receive overview of House Bill 2003, and review the project work plan; • On March 24, 2023, the Task Force held their second meeting to review and provide input on initial drafts of two components of the HNA—the Draft Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA) and Draft Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI); and • On June 23, 2023, the Task Force met for a third time to review comments received during the first round of public engagement related to the initial HNA draft, review and provide input on revised drafts of the BLI and HCA, and receive a presentation with an introductory overview of Housing Production Strategy categories. Other Public Engagement In addition to the work of the Task Force, City staff and the consultant team offered opportunities for public engagement and comment through the following events: • On January 23, 2023, a second work session was held at the Planning Commission that included a presentation outlining the requirements of HB 2003 and a proposed public involvement plan for the City's 2023 HNA; • On February 21, a second study session was held at City Council that included a presentation outlining the requirements of HB 2003 as related to the City's 2023 HNA and developing an HPS; 1 Subsequently,City Council adopted Resolution 23-06 on February 7,2023,to add an official liaison from the Diversity, Equity,and Inclusion Board to the Task Force,and Resolution 23-29 on June 20,2023,to add liaisons from DLCD to the Task Force. Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 4 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 • On March 20, the draft BLI and HCA documents were distributed to City-recognized neighborhood associations, City boards and commissions, and interested members of the public for their input and review; • On March 31, the City opened an Online Open House that explained the information in the draft BLI and HCA documents and allowed for public input through April 21; • On April 6, the City held a virtual "Neighborhood Forum" to provide information and receive direct public input on the draft BLI and HCA; • On April 10, 2023, a third work session was held with the Planning Commission to review the draft HNA findings and provide direction to staff; • On April 18, 2023, a third study session was held with City Council to review the draft HNA findings and provide direction to staff; and • On May 22, 2023, an update was provided to the Planning Commission with a summary of comments received during public engagement related to initial drafts of the HNA. Staff and the consultant team have revised the draft BLI and HCA based on public input and the direction provided by the Commission and City Council. See Revisions to Draft BLI and HCA, below. Housing Needs Analysis Report Summary The 2023 HNA Report compares the amount and type of land available for future residential uses, as determined by the BLI, with the amount and types of housing units needed, as determined by the HCA. The BLI identifies land that can be expected to provide residential capacity for Lake Oswego in the next 20 years. The general steps taken to produce the draft BLI include: • Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification. This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses, using information such as comprehensive plan/zoning designation, ownership information, and tax assessor data. Land that is in public ownership (such as owned by a school district or commonly owned by a homeowner's association) or religious/fraternal ownership is generally not considered available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development. This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that may limit development. Land affected by these constraints is totally or partially removed from the inventory. • Step 3: Development Status. This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. Partially vacant land has an existing structure but is assumed to be available for future infill —for example a single home on a lot that is large enough to accommodate more homes. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity. This step removes land for future rights-of- way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation, then estimates number of units. Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 5 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 As shown in the BLI, there are approximately 175 developable acres of residentially-zoned land and 10 developable acres of land zoned for mixed-use, resulting in a total of 185 developable acres within the City. The estimated unit capacity for this area is approximately 851 dwelling units. The BLI identifies an additional capacity for 110 units of middle housing infill and 366 units that have been approved by the City but not yet constructed, resulting in a total capacity of 1,327 dwelling units. The HCA includes research and analysis to outline a forecast of housing need within Lake Oswego by 2043. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: • Portland State University Population Research Center (current population); • Metro (forecasts of future population); • U.S. Census; • Claritas;2 • Oregon Employment Department; • City of Lake Oswego; and • Clackamas County. This analysis relies heavily on census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS). All census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. The HCA includes the following components: • A demographic profile, including population growth, income trends, and poverty statistics; • Current housing conditions, including housing tenure (rental/ownership), age of housing stock, unit types, and assisted housing; • An assessment of current housing demand, based on population characteristics and the availability of housing units; and • An assessment of future housing need, based on forecasted population growth and a variety of other anticipated demographic and housing market trends. The HCA shows that Lake Oswego has an estimated current population of 41,550 residents, representing a 13% increase between 2010 and 2023. The City currently has an estimated existing stock of 18,345 housing units, representing an 8% increase since 2010. The average household size in Lake Oswego is currently 2.36 persons per household. 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation. It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census, Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 6 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 The estimated population in Lake Oswego for 2043 is 41,961 residents, with an average household size of 2.16 persons per household.This represents a relatively modest projected annual growth rate of 0.05%, which is markedly lower than the amount of growth the City experienced in the last few decades. The decrease in household size from 2.36 (2023) to 2.16 (2043) is notable, as even though the growth rate is expected to decrease, the number of persons per household is also expected to decrease. This results in a projection of more new households than new residents over the 20- year study period, with 1,816 new households projected in the City by 2043, and an estimated need for 1,968 new housing units, or 20,313 units in total. The HNA Report includes a reconciliation of the anticipated future housing needs identified in the HCA and the land supply identified in the BLI. The results show a projected deficit of 642 dwelling units, or 86 acres, in the City by 2043. This includes a deficit of 192 units (38 acres) in low-density zones, 249 units (31 acres) in medium-density zones, and 201 units (17 acres) in high-density zones. For more background on the BLI and HCA, see Exhibit D-3. Revisions to Draft BLI and HCA Following the release of initial drafts of the BLI and HCA, staff and the consultant team revised the documents in response to the comments received during public engagement events, as well as direction from the Commission and City Council. These changes included defining the BLI study area as being coterminous with the City boundary. Previous versions of the BLI used a broader study area that included land outside of the City boundary. Staff and the consultant team coordinated with the Task Force and DLCD to clarify the geographic scope of the analysis; the study area for the BLI has been re-defined as being within the City boundary to ensure consistency with the HCA. In addition, the BLI was revised to include a more accurate forecast that better considers Conditions, Covenants, and Restrictions (CC&Rs)that could preclude the development of middle housing in certain areas. (CC&Rs are private legal agreements that are not enforced or maintained by the City.) The City has not conducted a comprehensive review to identify CC&Rs that may preclude middle housing; to do so would require obtaining the CC&R—and there is no central repository other than at the county clerk's office, but they don't have an index only of CC&RS— and then staff review of each of the CC&Rs. While the initial draft of the BLI included an assumption that 3% of all detached single-family units would be converted to duplexes or other types of middle housing, the revised version anticipates that only 1.5% of detached single-family units will convert to middle housing due to the widespread presence of density-restrictive CC&Rs for lands within the city. Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 7 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 The revised BLI also does not anticipate middle housing conversions in areas with known Planned Developments (PDs) and Planned Unit Developments (PUDs), since a land use application would be required to modify an existing PD or PUD to include additional middle housing units3. The BLI has also been updated to include a more accurate reflection of the amount of residential capacity approved at the former Marylhurst university site. IV. NOTICE OF APPLICATION A. Newspaper Notice On August 16, 2023, public notice of the proposed Comprehensive Plan amendments and Planning Commission public hearing will be published in the Lake Oswego Review. B. DLCD and Metro Notices Pursuant to ORS 197.610 and LOC 50.003.07.16.c, staff has provided notice of the proposed CDC text amendments to the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). (Staff incorporated DLCD-suggested edits into the finalized HNA Report.) Staff notified Metro as required by Metro Code 3.07.820(a). V. COMPLIANCE WITH APPROVAL CRITERIA A. CLASSIFICATION OF AMENDMENTS AS A LEGISLATIVE DECISION The proposed Comprehensive Plan amendment requires a "legislative decision" (LOC 50.07.003.16)4. : A legislative decision is generally a policy decision which is up to the discretion of the City Council, but shall: i. Comply with any applicable state law; ii. Comply with any applicable statewide planning goal or administrative rule adopted pursuant to ORS Chapter 197. and iii. In the case of a legislative amendment to this Community Development Code, comply with any applicable provision of the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan. 3 Per LOC 50.07.003.11.a,a land use application would be needed to modify a previously-approved PD or PUD to include additional middle housing units.Areas with existing PDs and PUDs were excluded from the analysis of forecasted middle housing units because the requirement to submit a formal land use application serves as a barrier to middle housing development. 4 LOC 50.07.003.16.a.i: "A'legislative decision' is an amendment to the policies, procedures,standards,criteria or map designations of the Comprehensive Plan." Although adoption of the HNA is not an amendment to the Comprehensive Plan policies, it could serve as the basis for that. In addition,the adoption of the HNA as part of the Comprehensive Plan is not a quasi-judicial decision,which is the only other type of classification of land use decisions. Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 8 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 The criteria are listed in Applicable Regulations, above, and are addressed in Sections B-D. B. OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOALS Amendments to the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan must comply with Oregon's Statewide Planning Goals and Guidelines (OAR Chapter 660 Division 15), when amending the Comprehensive Plan policies (which the HNA does not) and the existing Comprehensive Plan policies (except if they are amending the policies). Findings: The proposed HNA has been prepared pursuant to applicable Statewide Planning Goals and will replace the 2013 HNA, which was adopted as part of the Comprehensive Plan, as follows: Goal 10: Housing—The proposed 2023 HNA was developed consistently with State Goal 10, Housing, and OAR 660-007 and -008. The proposed amendment is to adopt the 2023 HNA as a part of the Comprehensive Plan. Conclusion: The proposed 2023 HNA is consistent with all applicable Oregon Statewide Planning Goals. For the reasons stated above, the proposed 2023 HNA update is established on a factual basis, is consistent with existing City policies, and has been sufficiently coordinated with needed housing in the Metro region, in accordance with OAR 660-008- 030(1). C. METRO CODE Metro Urban Growth Management Functional Plan, Title 7: Housing Choice[MC 3.07.730]: Requirements for Comprehensive Plan and Implementing Ordinance Changes Cities and counties within the Metro region shall ensure that their comprehensive plans and implementing ordinances: (a) Include strategies to ensure a diverse range of housing types within their jurisdictional boundaries. (b) Include in their plans actions and implementation measures designed to maintain the existing supply of affordable housing as well as increase the opportunities for new dispersed affordable housing within their boundaries. (c) Include plan policies, actions, and implementation measures aimed at increasing opportunities for households of all income levels to live within their individual jurisdictions in affordable housing. Findings: These requirements are intended to ensure that Lake Oswego's implementing ordinances include strategies to ensure the production of a diverse range of housing types and increase opportunities for new affordable housing dispersed throughout the City. The 2023 HNA analyzes the future housing needs of the community and will provide the factual basis to later enact policies and strategies to further the City's compliance with Title 7 by developing strategies that promote the development of needed housing through the HPS. This work will lay the foundation for future plan policies, actions, and implementation Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 9 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 measures aimed at increasing opportunities for households of all income levels to live within Lake Oswego in affordable housing. Conclusion: To the extent applicable, the 2023 HNA is consistent with Metro Urban Growth Management Functional Plan, Title 7: Housing Choice. D. ORS CHAPTER 197 -COMPREHENSIVE LAND USE PLANNING) ORS 197.296—Analysis of housing capacity and needed housing by Metro, cities outside of Metro and smaller cities (2) (a) A local government shall demonstrate that its comprehensive plan or regional framework plan provides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years: (B) As scheduled by the commission: (ii) At least once each six years for a metropolitan service district; (D) The 20-year period shall commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the review under paragraph (a) of this subsection. (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 ("Needed housing"defined) and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. (4) (a) For the purpose of the inventory described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, "buildable lands"includes: (A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses under the existing planning or zoning; and (D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment. (b) For the purpose of the inventory and determination of housing capacity described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, the local government must demonstrate consideration of: Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 10 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 (A) The extent that residential development is prohibited or restricted by local regulation and ordinance, state law and rule or federal statute and regulation; (B) A written long term contract or easement for radio, telecommunications or electrical facilities, if the written contract or easement is provided to the local government; and (C) The presence of a single family dwelling or other structure on a lot or parcel. (c) Except for land that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment, a local government shall create a map or document that may be used to verify and identify specific lots or parcels that have been determined to be buildable lands. (5) (a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) and(c) of this subsection, the determination of housing capacity pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section must be based on data relating to land within the urban growth boundary that has been collected since the last review under subsection (2)(a)(B) of this section. The data shall include: (A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development that have actually occurred; (B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development; (C) Market factors that may substantially impact future urban residential development; and (D) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred on the buildable lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. (b) A local government shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this subsection using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (c) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period longer than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the analysis of a wider geographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more accurate, complete and reliable data relating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis performed pursuant to paragraph (a) of this subsection. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in a determination performed under this paragraph. Conclusion: The 2023 HNA Report was prepared based upon these criteria and complies, as discussed within the 2023 HNA Report. VI. RECOMMENDATION Based on the information presented in this report, staff recommends approval of the 2023 HNA as a part of the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan. Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 11 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 EXHIBITS A. Draft Ordinance A-1 Ordinance 2934, draft July 24, 2023 Attachment 1: Reserved for City Council Findings (not included) Attachment 2: 2023 Housing Needs Analysis, draft July 24,2023 B. Findings, Conclusions and Order [No current exhibits; reserved for hearing use] C. Minutes [No current exhibits; reserved for hearing use] D. Staff Reports D-1 Staff Memo, dated June 15, 2022 for Work Session-1 on June 27, 2022 D-2 Staff Memo, dated January 10, 2023 for Work Session-2 on January 23, 2023 D-3 Staff Memo, dated March 28, 2023 for Work Session-3 on April 10, 2023 D-4 Staff Memo, dated May 12, 2023 for the Planning Commission meeting on May 22, 2023 E. Graphics/Plans [No current exhibits; reserved for hearing use] F. Written Materials [No current exhibits; reserved for hearing use] G. Letters [No current exhibits; reserved for hearing use] Staff reports and public meeting materials that were prepared for these Comprehensive Plan amendments can be found by visiting the project web page for LU 23-0023. Use the link below to visit the City's "Project" page. https://www.ci.oswego.or.us/all-projects (Under "Search" enter LU 23-0023, then press "Enter") Planning Commission Public Hearing Page 12 of 12 LU 23-0023 August 28,2023 DRAFT: 07/24/2023 ORDINANCE 2934 AN ORDINANCE OF THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ADOPTING THE 2023 HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS AS A PART OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN (LU 23-0023). WHEREAS, notice of the public hearing for consideration of this Ordinance was duly given in the manner required by law; and WHEREAS, the 2013 Housing Needs Analysis was adopted by Ord. 2640, Sec. 3, as part of the Comprehensive Plan; and WHEREAS, in 2019 the Oregon Legislature enacted House Bill 2003, Sec. 4 (2019), which requires Oregon cities of more than 10,000 residents to study the future housing needs of their residents and to develop strategies that encourage the production of housing their residents need [now ORS 197.290]; and WHEREAS, in November 2020, the Department of Land Conservation and Development adopted OAR 660-008-0045 through -0070 to implement, in part, HB 2003 (2019); and WHEREAS, per OAR 660-08-0045 Housing Capacity Analysis Deadline, the City of Lake Oswego is required to adopt an updated Housing Capacity Analysis by December 31, 2023; and WHEREAS, in 2021 the Oregon Legislature enacted House Bill 3155, Sec. 2 (2021), which requires cities within Metro and a population greater than 10,000 to at least once every six years "[c]onduct an analysis of the city's existing and projected needed housing under statewide planning goals and rules related to housing by type, mix, affordability and density range to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type under section 23 of this 2023 Act for the next 20 years" [now ORS 197.297(1)]; and WHEREAS, the Council has held three separate study sessions regarding the implementation of HB 2003 (2019) from June 2022 through April 2023; and WHEREAS, on October 4, 2022, the Council adopted Resolution 22-30 creating an Ad-Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force ("Task Force") "consisting of persons interested in helping the City Council and Planning Commission identify critical housing needs and recommend strategies to address them in order to reach compliance with House Bill 2003;" and WHEREAS, Resolution 22-30 included the approval of appointments of 18 members to the Task Force, including elected and appointed officials, members of City boards and commissions, housing producers, and housing consumers within Lake Oswego; and WHEREAS, Resolution 22-30, Section 3, charged the Task Force with "making recommendations to the City Council and Planning Commission consistent with the following objectives: Ordinance 2934 EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 1 OF 3 DRAFT: 07/24/2023 *** • • Ensure compliance with HB 2003 (House Bill 2003-Housing Needs and Production); • Provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission as the City identifies current and future housing needs and develops strategies to address them; • Follow a schedule that allows the Planning Commission to consider Comprehensive Plan amendments to update the City's Housing Needs Analysis by September 2023, so that the City Council may adopt an HB 2003-compliant Housing Needs Analysis no later than December 2023; ***„ • WHEREAS, the Task Force has so far conducted three meetings between December 2022 and June 2023, where public input was accepted, in order to provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission in identifying current and future housing needs; and WHEREAS, on March 31, the City released an "Online Open House" explaining the initial draft findings of the 2023 Housing Needs Analysis and allowing for public input through April 21; and WHEREAS, in April 2023, staff hosted a virtual "Community Forum" in order to provide information and receive direct public input on initial draft findings of the 2023 Housing Needs Analysis; and WHEREAS, the Planning Commission held three work sessions and received one staff update regarding HB 2003 from June 2022 through May 2023, with public comment to aid the Planning Commission in clarifying the scope and key issues of the 2023 Housing Needs Analysis; and WHEREAS, a public hearing before the Planning Commission was held on August 28, 2023, at which the staff report, testimony, and evidence were received and considered; and WHEREAS, the Planning Commission has adopted findings, conclusions and an order recommending to the City Council that the 2023 Housing Needs Analysis Report (LU 23-0023) be adopted as a part of the City's Comprehensive Plan; and WHEREAS, a public hearing on LU 23-0023 was held before the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego on October 3, 2023, at which the staff report, testimony, and evidence were received and considered; and WHEREAS, the Council finds that the 2023 Housing Needs Analysis be adopted as a part of the Comprehensive Plan; The City of Lake Oswego ordains as follows: Section 1. The City Council hereby adopts the Findings and Conclusions (LU 23-0023), attached as Attachment 1. Ordinance 2934 EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 2 OF 3 DRAFT: 07/24/2023 Section 2. The 2023 Housing Needs Analysis in Attachment 2, dated , 2023 is hereby adopted as part of the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan. Enacted at the meeting of the Lake Oswego City Council of the City of Lake Oswego held on the day of , 2023. AYES: NOES: ABSENT: ABSTAIN: EXCUSED: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor Dated: ATTEST: Kari Linder, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney Ordinance 2934 EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 3 OF 3 ATTACHMENT 1 Reserved for City Council Findings (not included) r { r Ei lc ! r 74. 14. li R4' 4 N C - • • 114 tti .. Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 July 2023 JOH NSON ECONOMICS LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 1 OF 1 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Lake Oswego Housing Task Force Kasey Adler,Transportation Advisory Board Yoko Kinoshita, Resident Kyrsten Baumgart, Housing producer Rebecca Lane, Resident Phil Bertrand, Housing producer Rosalie Nowalk, Resident Joseph M. Buck, City Council Liaison John E. Pauley, Resident Thea Croman, DLCD Bruce Poinsette, Development Review Commission Kelly Reid, DLCD Phillip Stewart, Planning Commission Liaison Douglas Corder, 50+Advisory Board David Tangvald, Housing producer Pat Ginn, Resident Kimvi To, D.E.I. Advisory Board Diana Howell, Resident John Turchi, Resident Cara Kao-Young, Resident Sarah Walker, Housing producer Betty Jung, Resident Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Andrew Parish, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 2 OF 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH &SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS 8 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY 10 I. INCOME TRENDS 11 J. POVERTY STATISTICS 12 K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 12 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 14 A. HOUSING TENURE 14 B. HOUSING STOCK 14 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 14 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 15 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 16 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 17 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 18 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 20 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 26 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED(2043)&LAND SUPPLY 32 APPENDIX A: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY 35 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 3 OF 1 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043,consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: • Portland State University Population Research Center • Metro • U.S. Census • Claritas2 • Oregon Employment Department • City of Lake Oswego • Clackamas County • Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego, as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. 1 ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 4 OF 1 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin,and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population1 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;519301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-year ACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 5 OF 1 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000, while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households.This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period. The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons; 69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census.Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2:NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more 0% Renter 6-person 1% Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in 2° 4-person 11% 18% = 3-person 11% 19% 2-person 35% ° 38/0 1-person 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 6 OF 1 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census,the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8%of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households.In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits:An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000,with 24%being multi-family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi-Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 1500 00 ■ 1111111 . 1 Oco Orb O 'L yR tico ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 7 OF 1 FIGURE 2.4:AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% N o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti Ln o v o � o 15% * - r m N o 4 o `� c O o -1 O ,_1 i '_1 o r-I 10% al I `" D o 0 e In 5% 111 1 . 0, N N c-I 0% x y��ea,5 ���eate ���ea,5 ��a(2, h��ea<5 ���e, ���e, ��aea,h Je. a aec �o �o ,o �o co ,co �o cb SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5:SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 10% 10% 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: 611005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 8 OF 1 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS The following figure presents the distribution of Lake Oswego's population by race and Hispanic ethnicity. The community grew more diverse between the 2010 and 2020 Census, with the population's white (non-Hispanic) share falling from 90%to 80%. The Asian population makes up 8% of the population, and the Hispanic or Latino population makes up 5%of residents.9%of residents identify as two or more races. FIGURE 2.6:RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY,2010—2020(LAKE OSWEGO) 100% o Share of Population by Race o Lake Oswego(2010) 00 80% •Lake Oswego(2020) 60% I •Clackamas Co. 40% Oregon 20% o o oo o e al Ln o o ME -. Li., c -a a, c +' CV 0 oLE o c > 0 m c O 47, wU N co Q C (o CO N CC v C co J N O l i ` Q U H 3Ii 1= ~ VI E SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P1,P2(2010,2020) In comparison,the share of the population identifying as white is also 80%in Clackamas County,and 75%statewide. The share of Lake Oswego's population identifying as Hispanic or Latino is 5% of the population, indicating over 2,100 people as of the 2020 Census.This is lower than the 14%share statewide. FIGURE 2.7:AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Average Household Size by Race & Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 2.5 White alone 2.4 Black or African American alone 2.5 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 2.8 Asian alone 2.8 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 3.5 Hispanic or Latino 3.7 Some Other Race alone 4.0 Two or more races: 2.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Avg.Number of Persons per Household SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P17A-H,(State of Oregon,2020) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2010).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature unusually large margins of error due to the small sample size. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 9 OF 1 Minority households tend to have a larger average household size than the average of all households(Figure 2.7). (This figure presents statewide data due to the high margin of error for local data in this data set.) Households identifying as"white alone" have the lowest average household size(2.4 persons),while all other racial and ethnic categories have a larger estimated average household size. Some of the non-white categories, such as black households and those of two or more races,are still similar in average size(2.5 and 2.7 persons,respectively).Those with the largest estimated households are Latinos, Pacific Islanders,and those identifying as"some other race." Larger average household size indicates a need for units with more bedrooms on average among many minority households. Each household has its own housing needs in terms of the number of bedrooms and other factors, based on the specific makeup of each family. Based on voluntary guidelines provided by HUD for public housing programs, households of between 2 persons generally need a one-bedroom unit, households with 3 persons might need two bedrooms, and those with 4 persons might need three bedrooms. Larger households may need four or more bedrooms,which are typically found in single detached homes. Based on statewide data, many racial and ethnic minorities are currently less likely to own the homes they occupy (Figure 2.8)—meaning that they tend to occupy rental units.These communities face systemic obstacles to home ownership,including lower generational wealth, less access to capital and financing,and a history of discrimination in lending and geography(e.g.,redlining).While the country and state try to address explicit discrimination through the law, the legacy of these barriers continues to hamper home ownership for many minority households. Going forward, many communities would benefit from more entry-level homebuying opportunities for these households, as well as additional rental housing for those who are still unready or unable to buy a home. FIGURE 2.8:HOME OWNERSHIP RATE BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Owner-Occupied Households by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 63% White alone 65% Black or African American alone 36% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 48% Asian alone 63% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 32% Hispanic or Latino 45% Some Other Race alone 43% Two or more races: 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ownership Rate SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25003A-H,(State of Oregon,2021 ACS 5-year) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2020).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature larger margins of error due to small sample size in some of the racial categories. Populations from some racial and ethnic minority groups also have lower average incomes and are more likely to have income below the official poverty level when compared to the total population. Such income levels are correlated with a greater share of renter households and impact the types of housing these populations consume, as discussed in further detail below. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 10 OF 1 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY An estimated 8%of the population of Lake Oswego, or 3,140 people, report having some form of disability.This is lower than the statewide rate of 14%and the Clackamas County rate of 12%of people with a disability.(The Census reports these statistics for the"non-institutionalized population.") The following figure presents Census estimates of the types of disability reported among Lake Oswego residents. Any type of disability impacts the type of housing that may be appropriate for a resident,but those with the greatest impact on needed unit type are generally an ambulatory, self-care, or independent living disability.Those with an ambulatory disability often need units with expanded access for a wheelchair,walker,or scooter.Those with self- care or independent living disabilities may require additional safety precautions around the home to protect a resident who cannot always be directly monitored. FIGURE 2.9:LAKE OSWEGO SHARE OF THE POPULATION WITH DISABILITY,BY TYPE Share of Population Population with a disability 7.8% Hearing difficulty 2.4% Vision difficulty 1.7% Cognitive difficulty 2.7% Ambulatory difficulty 2.9% Self-care difficulty 1.1% Independent living difficulty 2.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) FIGURE 2.10:LAKE OSWEGO POPULATION WITH A DISABILITY,BY AGE Share of Population with Disability by Age Total population 7.8% Under 18 years . 2.0% 18 to 64 years EIM 5.8% 65 years and over 19.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 11 OF 1 Older residents are more likely to report a disability, including nearly 20%of those over 65 years.Of those aged 18 to 64 years, 6% of the local population reports a disability, and 2% of children. Because Census data tends to undercount the homeless and other vulnerable populations, there are likely more disabled residents in Lake Oswego than reflected in these data. I. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.11: INCOME TRENDS,2000—2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH ($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 ■ Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500, and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. ■ Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. ■ Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. FIGURE 2.12: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to$99,999 11% $50,000 to$74,999 11% $35,000 to$49,999 6% $25,000 to$34,999 4% $15,000 to$24,999 4% $10,000 to$14,999 2% Less than$10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables:S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) Figure 2.12 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k(27%). ■ 41%of households earn less than$100,000. ■ Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 12 OF 1 J. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%,and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: • The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups, but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. • For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. • Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.13:POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college,associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher -9 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database.These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these, an estimated 2,250 or 10%, are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities Census Tables:S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates);Methodology The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 13 OF 1 in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now, a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.14: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Metzger FA riPit Milwauiie Hopi CAP970L H[LL0 U Tryon Creek State s3 �I iIwa l le a TA Natural Area . F-". . 1 — - - - J. I ili Cunthp rpe - 94E -. lard r '' w.:'L_Y ORC-rIAI?- Osweg o 20,900 2,250 15,800 '' Live and work Work in Lake Oswego, F Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere \ in Lake Oswego work elsewhere rya rit - ://: 1n- lio� Durham Ai _ } ritage Centr_....4.6-- fla°L / 10% 12% / 88% i r . u r MIARYLHUFS]I_ II 4 River rov - . • - - Stafford '''w--J'' .ualatin \ 0 Legacy Meridian R I L■ I' I f Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 14 OF 1 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide(63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 0% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census. Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16% of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 15 OF 1 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter IMMI 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom ° 27% 2% Studio ° 6% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes,which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 16 OF 1 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% I Rental 59% g 60% 0 40% 20% 18/ 10/° 13% 6% 6% 0% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% 23% 23% Renter 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% 10% 10% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% II I. 1% I 0% of 3� Year Housing Unit Built c; SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units, older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 17 OF 1 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others,and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30%of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households o 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% A 60% 51% L0 U, N tto 40% •c = 20% 12% 16% v 0% n Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs, including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent4 for local renter households only.This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. °The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)."Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 18 OF 1 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% 25% 22% 0 a, 20% =• 15% 14% • 10% 7% N 5% 3% ■ 0% olo ti)olo ��Io ��Io ��olo oe, o O O 0 Lod \ 01 of %of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents. The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families.Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds, as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or 5 Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 19 OF 1 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18),and 26 youth (aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender, 60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities,including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. 6 HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act,who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 20 OF 1 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources: Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%.This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home (tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 21 OF 1 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2:ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007, B25106,B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be $400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate,but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term. The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 22 OF 1 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference,or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% S9/ Rental 60% 0 v 40% 18% 20% 10% 0 13% - 6 a % 0% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004, B25032,B25063, B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 23 OF 1 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY, ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 = 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 - 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004, B25032,B25063, B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 24 OF 1 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 6,000 •Est.Owner Households N = 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level D - 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 0 2,000 o 1,000 � xk 0 M ■ ■ ■ I 0 0 0 0 < < < x0 ) ) ) ' 0' 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 h, p, p, op e c c 0 t gyp, 1, 0 0 0hy hL hgy h h 'lc) O • • • • • h ra� 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ys� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00h, h, �h, 0, Ah' 0, h, 0 He hti hu h' h h 0 � h h'\ hti hti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 •Est.Renter Households E1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level t° 1,000 a) U, = 500 x 0 ■ ■ 1II I I I I . h h h h h ti ti ' O wren 000 000 000 000 000 00 00 00 hL �e`'� htih hlh, h''' 4'0 huh 000 1h0 h00 h,• h, 'IN/ Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The home value and rent segments which show a"surplus"in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around those levels.These levels will be too costly for some(i.e.require more than 30%in gross income)or"too affordable" for others(i.e.they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose). In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing.There is a need for more rental units at lower rent levels(<$900/mo.). HOME SALE PRICES It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively low housing costs.This indicates that one owner household is living in a"lower value"unit. It does not indicate that units at this price point are available on the current market. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 25 OF 1 If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current achievable market prices. For this reason,many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant. For reference,this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the market(Figure 4.7). • The median sale price was$860,000. • The average(mean)sale price was$1,075,000. • The average price per square foot was$430/s.f. • The median square footage was 2,300 s.f. FIGURE 4.7:LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES(12 MONTHS) Home Sales by Unit Type Home Sales by Price Level $900,000+ 319 $800,000-$899,000 66 20% $700,000-$799,000 67 $600,000-$699,000 56 8% $500,000-$599,000 ■ 39 0 ° 72% $400,000-$499,000 . 31 $300,000-$399,000 . 47 $200,000-$299,000 ■ 43 $100,000-$199,000 13 Detached Home Manuf. Home <$100,000 0 Attached Home Condo 0 100 200 300 400 Sources: RMLS,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • 48%of sales were priced above$900,000. • 34%of sales were priced between$500,000 and$899,000. • Only 18%of sales were priced at less than $500,000. • Only 7%of sales were priced below$300,000. Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75%of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least $600,000. Homes in this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the median household income of$123,000. Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the current for-sale market(75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households. The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following section. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 26 OF 1 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The projected future(20-year)housing profile(Figure 5.1) in the study area is based on the current housing profile (2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate. The projected future growth is the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region.This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1%per year. FIGURE 5.1:FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE(2043),LAKE OSWEGO PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023-2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1.7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied Units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0% Stabilized vacancy assumption Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Metro,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC *Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population,household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1 The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons,meaning more smaller households to house the same population. (The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.) PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND(2043) The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step. Therefore,the need identified below is the total need for actual households in occupied units(19,298). The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of each.The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households. The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing costs,from 30%for low income households down to 20%for the highest income households. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%,with 10% down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the future, CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 27 OF 1 these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand. Income levels and price levels are presented in 2023 dollars. Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand(current and new households,without vacancy) in 2043. FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND(2043),LAKE OSWEGO Ownership #of Price Range Households Income Range %of Total Cumulative $0k-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% Extremely <30%MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low <50%MFI $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% Income $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80%MFI $350k-$440k 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental #of Rent Level Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $0-$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% Extremely <30%MFI $400-$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% Low Income $700-$900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50%MFI $900-$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% Income $1300-$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80%MFI $1800-$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 %of All: 30.3% 19,298 Sources: Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next 20 years to under 70%from 71%. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 28 OF 1 COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above(Figure 5.2)was compared to the current housing inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and price range(Figure 5.3). This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units. An average vacancy rate of 5%is assumed for the purpose of this analysis. FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS(2043),LAKE OSWEGO OWNERSHIP HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0% Percentage: 69.2% 12.9% 3.1% 5.6% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0% Percentage: 5.5% 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% Sources: PSU,City of Lake Oswego,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043. • Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be rental units.This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than ownership units. • There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges($300k to$600k). • The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points. Market rents are currently clustered in the $1,300 to $2,200 range in current dollars.Therefore, most units are to be found in this range. • There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to maintain housing costs that are affordable(see more detail below). CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 29 OF 1 Needed Unit Types The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership households over the next 20 years. However,an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers. ■ 39%of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is projected to be some form of attached housing. ■ Single attached units(townhomes on individual lots)are projected to meet roughly 11%of future need. These are defined as units on separate tax lots,attached by a wall but separately metered,the most common example being townhome units. ■ Duplex,triplex,and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16%of the total need, reflecting new state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement unit.) ■ 34%of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+attached units. ■ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of some low-income households for both ownership and rental. ■ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are projected to be attached forms. ■ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings,with 62% projected in rental properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes. Group Housing Needs:There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population growth is modest. In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego's group housing population lives in nursing facilities. NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment,based on the projected demographics of new households to the market area.The needed affordability levels presented here are based on current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels. Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of "low income" used to set rent and income limits for various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income in Clackamas County of$106k in 2022, based on a family of four,while the median income in Lake Oswego was a higher$123k. For this analysis,the estimated Median Family Income(MFI)for a family of four($106k)was adjusted to match the average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the city average. Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable unit or voucher to find housing affordability.Those at 60%to 100%MFI may find housing in older and substandard market rate rentals, manufactured homes,and middle housing types. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 29 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 30 OF 1 FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Income Level Owner Renter Household Income Segment Total Share Common Housing Product (Rounded) Units Units Government-subsidized;Voucher; Extremely Low Inc. <30%MEI <$27,500 56 149 205 10% Shelter;Transitional Aging/substandard rentals; Very Low Income 30%-60%MFI $27.5k-$55k 95 221 317 16% Government-subsidized;Voucher; Manufactured homes Aging apartments;Government- Low Income 60%-80%MEI $55k-$73k 71 120 190 10% subsidized; Plexes;Aging single- detached;Small homes Single-detached homes; Middle Income 80%-120%MFI $73k-$11ok 134 172 306 16% Townhomes;Condominiums; Newer apartments Single-detached homes; Upper Income >120%MFI >$110,000 669 282 951 48% Townhomes;Condominiums; New apartments TOTAL: 1,024 944 1,968 100% Sources: HUD,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS ■ Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current need for more affordable units. For all households,current and new,to pay 30%or less of their income towards housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to become less expensive to meet the needs of current households. ■ There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum($900 and less). ■ The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes, condos,and small detached homes,often on smaller lots. Subsidized Affordability Housing Need As alluded to in Figure 5.4,some low-income households,and particularly the lowest income households,typically need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and other household spending needs. Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043.The table uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common affordability level for tax credit properties. ■ There is an existing and on-going need at these levels,based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas County. An estimated 12%of households qualify as at least"low income"or lower on the income scale,while 9% of households qualify as "extremely low income". (Again, this is based on the official state measure of Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs, which is relatively high.) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 30 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 31 OF 1 FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT Low INCOME LEVELS, LAKE OSWEGO Current Need(2022) Future Need(2043) NEW Need(20-Year) Affordablilty Level Income Level* #of Units %of All #of Units %of All #of Units %of All Extremely Low Inc. <_30%MFI <_ $26,800 1,492 9% 1,697 9% 205 10% Very Low Income 30%-50%MFI 5 $44,700 1,560 9% 1,771 9% 212 11% Low Income 50%-80%MFI <_ $71,600 2,075 12% 2,370 12% 295 15% TOTAL: 580%MFI 5 $71,600 5,127 29% 5,839 30% 712 36% Tax Credit <_60%MFI <_ $53,700 3,962 23% 4,483 23% 521 26% Sources: OHCS,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,HUD * Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg.Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons. ■ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income households and many other low-income households at "affordable" housing cost levels. Often the lowest income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are more likely to serve those earning 50%to 60%of MFI. Housing Need for People Experiencing Homelessness: Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to maintain a fairly stable number of unhoused individuals and households over this period. Unhoused individuals and families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances,ranging from emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-income population shown in prior figures. Agricultural Worker Housing:There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the planning period. However,this population may also be served by other available affordable units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 31 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 32 OF 1 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED (2043) & LAND SUPPLY This section summarizes the results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). The BLI is presented in detail in an accompanying memo to this report. The BLI was conducted for land within the city limits, assessing vacant and partially vacant lands based on residential zoning, and environmental and other constraints that may impact development. The following table (Figure 6.1) presents the estimated new unit capacity of the buildable lands identified in the City of Lake Oswego and within the UGB. Residential zones, as well as mixed-use zones that can accommodate some residential uses, were included in the inventory, and are broken into broad categories based on housing density. FIGURE 6.1: ESTIMATED BUILDABLE LANDS CAPACITY BY ACREAGE AND NO.OF UNITS(2023) ACRES ACREAGE Land Type Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Acres Area(Acres) Area(Acres) Acres Capacity Residential 3,530 802 2,784 174 705 Mixed Use 490 96 397 10 146 Non-Residential 172 21 150 - - Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - - Acres Total: 7,339 2,193 5,230 185 851 UNITS UNIT TYPE Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Unit Housing Type Units Units Units Capacity Residential 648 39 17 705 Mixed Use 5 23 118 146 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Vacant and Partially Vacant Total: 653 62 135 851 Additional Capacity Approved Developments 2 23 341 366 Additional Middle Housing Infill - 110 - 110 TOTAL HOUSING UNIT CAPACITY: 655 195 476 1,327 Source: MIG • There is a total estimated remaining capacity of 1,327 units of different types within the study area. • The estimated remaining capacity for low density housing units remains the greatest share at capacity for 655 units,or 49%of the total. • There is a total estimated capacity for 195 middle housing units, including future infill in low density zones. This is roughly 15%of the total unit capacity. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 32 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 33 OF 1 • There is a total estimated capacity for 476 housing units in higher density multi-dwelling properties. This is roughly 36%of the total unit capacity. • 28%of the total capacity(366 units) is found in units already approved for development as of the time of this analysis.Additional infill opportunities identified on large-lot residential and some commercial lands account for an estimated 8%of capacity. See the attached Appendix for full Buildable Land Inventory details and methodology. The following table summarizes the forecasted future unit need for Lake Oswego. These are the summarized results from Section V of this report, presented here for reference. FIGURE 6.2: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED FUTURE UNIT NEED(2043) TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3 or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% New Units Needed Single Detached Homes 760 a) Townhomes 220 2 -4 Plex Units 309 oa c 3 5 or More Units 677 Manufactured Homes 3 00 OO OO 00 0`)'L O cb y0 Housing Units Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Census,Johnson Economics Comparison of Housing Need and Capacity There is a total forecasted need for nearly 2,000 units over the next 20 years based on the forecasted growth rate. This is greater than the estimated total capacity of 1,327 units. Figure 6.3 below presents a comparison of the BLI capacity for new housing units, compared to the estimate for new unit need by 2043. It breaks down need by general zoning category(LDR, MDR, HDR). • The projected demand for low-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 192 units,or the equivalent of 38 acres of low density residential land. • The results find a deficit for medium-density housing of 249 units, or 31 acres. • The projected demand for high-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 201 units,or the equivalent of 17 acres of high density residential land. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 33 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 34 OF 1 • These findings assume that under newly adopted state rules,3%of available buildable parcels in the LDR zone will be used for the various types of attached units(single-family attached townhomes,duplex—fourplex). FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate(0.05%) Zone& Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached & plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics • These findings point to a need for additional residential land in a range of zones over the 20-year planning period. Available inventory may meet an estimated 67% of total housing needs over the first half of the planning period, but a deficit is projected in the long run. • A range of potential housing policies and strategies will be considered in future development of a Housing Production Strategy by the City, including the ability of future plan areas to meet the need for different types of housing during the 20-year planning period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 34 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 35 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 APPENDIX A: LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY Methodology and Results I July 18, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1:Study Area and Land Classification. This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development.This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation,then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits.' 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGRAppendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf 2 A prior version of this Buildable Lands Inventory included unannexed land outside of the Lake Oswego City Limits which has a City Comprehensive Plan designation.This land has been removed from the study area following APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 35 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 36 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 1. Study Area Map r` - SW STf PHf N5O ST �p LP p U PU � 's /`��RA,WY ESEF��v m F p _I O , ..j .16 P a 1 `d � z �� a f} t F "' MELROSE ST �y� ,tr b- 5 RV dL` Iela RD rim y z ;a KRUSE WAY 0g Qa ` A p�,E ai MEgDt7W5 RD c t. �1 C gg 5 W BCa R+ ❑ g.CA`� Q) yw 0•k:''' N 1Alry 8 D L. ��r . .. FIR ! Sc E a a A 0 O 0 w Z G a UP 17Q9..4p.V. 4'°RE IQ I/ LJ UP t X�1-. •� N 1 !* flJ P P" 5 0 Li ., q GREENTREE F9 a L .Cry e�'b4 FR•F ¢ 3 o S: + �� v41111 ti. �rl ' 0,ei0'2r[aR is 6ERd15•R6 d'S+AY � OFF JO, , o V. 4 --i7 !y O a '-a • spa 11%4_ �.A Flo, `�,Lv Ad.• 5 .fE. r r C 4?o �•'CHlLDS RDO. f-.� 1 Lr �}. Miles °REC,O'4 1CTV 0 0.25 0.5 i Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Study Area h Study Area Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other.Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning discussion with the City's Housing Production Strategy Task Force and Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)staff. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 36 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 37 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones R-15 Residential Low To provide lands for single-family residential development with R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential development with densities ranging from seven to eight R-5 dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities and supports the economic feasibility of new construction R-DD Zone and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved Residential and integrated with new development. Medium Density The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, R-6 and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 37 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 38 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Residential High R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per Density R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the Highway needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Commercial(HC) retail uses which require access to a market area larger than the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity. Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that Mixed Use (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 38 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 39 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area. Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 39 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 40 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations CPonla7 a ommu e) Col lege-r71.5 . • Tryon Creek 224 S I State Natural ' I I• R7.5 -- a -- -- �] � Milwaukie � Hel hts Tigard �fa or,Mai -' r- �'`�� g 'i ,� •:•. R 5 R-ia R-i - ►0 P 1r: R 6 Oak Grove s R-ya q �, ;a . - �� l PNA QEC Bonita r r la m SW spnha Rd r N.67. R75 S /1 - 'a "�PNA • • in �-a SW❑urharn F., I fee > R-Lo f R y•5 Concord -`R PP I.01 R•7.5 Look Park PNAA C Trolley Trad Durham o R,1e 165? 'I F ■ 4�r r alatln • - r r PNA or tr-y Club P p I R-t5 �� Jer T rIS I atln PNA,, I Rag Eari.NASA,NSA,USGS,FEW,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, 1 Rivergrove __ Garmin,SafeGraph,G*Teehnologies,Inc,METI/NASA USGS.Bureau of Land Management,EPA,PIPS, - USDA ir „ Ma ry S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts Legend 0 Lake osuegc ,HC IF =R.6 LAYER O I 0 PHA iI R-7.S CI BE IP -R•0 R•0O =Cl/OC ©NC Q R•i0 'R•W =CR&h CI NC I=R-15 1=WLG GC p EC =NC/R-C p R-2 =l WLG R-2.5 lin EC/12-0 d GC 0 R-3 l=l WLGRHU 0 0.25 0.5 1 n GC 0 OC/Pe3 0 P.-5 Miles APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 40 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 41 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations I Portland • I �ommn ar - , 24i 5 CoIfege-5ylva Tryon Creek _ Y State Natural 21 I I.. :11Mn"y�`� • yp Ell R75 i _ 4-.j g PNA _ ,� Milwau kfe Tigard . . PF ' ,, ♦ Rn 'L e Ft `� heights Pa` 5 .sF.9 �y R-s R.,a � ■ y ►„�'' Oak Grove '' •fIC II, lipr ,1 77 I7 - .L!I 4 ft 4 ._. tea' MC -_- OCIR-3 L -.-NA Rao - CEC Bonita •- CR50 R=u '' red; —. t PNA R„,SW EicnIu Rd �Z it• PN •mow v, a •SP. asdWPNA• - `k l,' N lr• - t o - ^R-7.5 L / 5W Durham Rd I i.'V • R-m �I • • ---- ! R-2.5• Fs O ■C� Concord • a,5 r { R�5 CI` _ook Pa-k 11t• PNA S Trolley Trail Durham I lc L r . ono Pr ` PF ■ alln eery CIut, A =c Ty R-�5 oror ¢ Rii I _ 1 - Jer f R Esri,NASA,NGq IRIS,FE MA.Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, Tualatin Rive rg rove • Gamin,SaleGr,th,Goptechnolagles,Inc METVNASA,fr5G5,Bureau of Land Managernen I,EPA,APS, Ns>7A Mary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 bake Croatia, HC 0 PHa =I R-75 LAYER O IP 1.1 R-0 R•W -CI O MC O 12-10 0 5P i CR03 O NC O R-15 O WLG OC L]EC 0 NC/R-0 O R-2 O WIG R-2.5 Q EC(R-o 01 DC O 12-3 M WLG ORE C FMU O OCR-3 L 12-5 =eel other s,rees> 0 0.25 0.5 —GC OPF MR-6 Miles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for "Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows. This land is not included in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 41 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 42 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County, State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University, which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW As noted above, properties in this category are generally not included in the inventory. However, some specific parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 42 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 43 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification - lit yr Wu!iv \ I 1 I /.ftallird. .. . v.V1774AN 161 rum g C) - ,,k1,..,Sei.AO lit-, TensCalt , •', 41i/--', .... _ r 1 .....n.o.,t4..,E-,i;:._ 0 11 '1 italIFIL --4-0-411:4 liffrat.-_. .- ...:.1..7.0- - - -1 , - . 1 1, dig -.411.4004-*, tifitype.4 ,4 r '" art., 3A.-..TUr% 0 :.-?•'-''''' -EL"'ir....iu..._"!IWAILAI"1 /11‘4111111144iii T9 119 1 A Z-Liff a i I a sei• nifi'r it "Nash Pri 4-01111844%P.:, c!-'41 (let- t P iev me .1.1.1:41, t Ar-..L.41.11.11 Mill 1111C't nqiiiiiiimo 0 4. A n' A 04k lifilaiir 1 't 'p rilikaml. f . rid#11104;',4.411, IIPM111. 1 „..q,,-"Iiii.,j......' .40'•tillibtell./ "li ii rift Rd ItierrAfjt..4114721:,t1 61.6 oieror.1,,tipornx.....,.......61 .. 644" 1,..-Ilk. .. i I Illav 4/44,arr.:,1411 r: , lir er*.e.,_,, :„ "F‘will' MantedallPimeli. " l''' 11 I , 41111:07 digterIP.-- ''' . 0000,1,1111i, 40 '''.•...I ditmw..I 1, .%'.1. itra4":01Mli:M..! 1 lei Lii...--J4 op- ih, ,rU-",..icliiip f"16117. .at mr „Ey ..... rimmBIlla Ub 1 r 1/10,11111.11.0.fe- r riaroi _pr-ii"arlkehr4-t4 AerdtivegciLimR ..p. . , . ,...j I '5•7a 2,m ffi A-mJAtl iM1 6 —r- ijra.-jipsoarlv.i.. \C"c, 4 / e -, d4 , 1 r2 - 0.g ri• _ Rivirirroval iell __ i :II 1 ....... 0 I Miles _ C'ktGID.'5‘ Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type Study Area Land Type Residential 17 1 Mixed Use Non-Residential Public/Other APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 43 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 44 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies. Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated,while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts,which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 44 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 45 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development •� ' — I ISW STFPHENSUN STF FSs �kWE•^ 11 1 i I pN�'. m `.� f� r l' MFLROSE STII �` 1-. I�' i Alt'] •.' i �� s i " �r elcouyTRr b.. a 4 I• NS . + j E JIl.AIRO . 'lrdlkr SW .C�� 4c. `` g ,. -1 � ? n �_ _-- _- i , 21-- M1f n 2'�a...,f i� . S�`■`'Y`r - • V 4 r- a x I f n i ❑ c r• ! `e � 5 � ■ u n aT:•el { ti " la w ❑] may .r • `7 . p ! O. Y • y _ n GEEE N iS E EV, •• .' 'yM- -44 Rpm ' -0/44� cL, Li I ci 1 a 9 �6 e■ x E 6J�5SooE S 1- 5 BERG15�iiD + .;. 'C' Se. . LAY r ~�►ti 4.►.. r:. f".- Al +f 04 n f t: ■ riy 4� Ill IA* ilk '..' 1 ' i-- t ��DS yS� F2pO r _.. . . �i El c.,5 J.S Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints .�. Study Area Major Roads Taxlots Greenway Mgmt. - Overlay District Slopes>25% FEMA Floodplain Sensitive Lands Overlay Habitat Benefit Area! (HBA) Resource Conservation Areas (RC) Resource Protection Areas(RP) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 45 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 46 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 Mixed Use 490 96 397 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Publicly Owned/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Tax assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value; • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces; • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information; • Review of recent aerial imagery; and • Discussion and review with City staff and the Housing Production Strategy(HPS)Task Force. Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted.Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 46 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 47 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 • Partially Vacant.This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones,this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with a building value below$200,000, %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size: These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix (see Error! Reference source not found.3) are a pplied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site. Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus Zone. Campus Research & 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of residential/non- (FMU) residential mix General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 47 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 48 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots,total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type. A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 175 Mixed Use 490 96 397 14 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 _ Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 189 APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 48 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 49 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land oi T 0-1. - �� +Sin TTTT r `. ~' SW STEPHFNSON ST 1 �p i y �" - . \ \ •^h9FI ROSE.ti F I * - r +f, y ` r caUryrRr c. •a�� , 1 R _vt T }K RUSE WA U! �� !I 11VF --� MEADOWS RG r r _Y �� • 111 4= _ SW'f3nNI7A RCt - �Eq4 QG ` y�`4'���� ��,Oi]N7A�h•[�LV - IR ip• 2 �� s 'IY 141 - -ii A". :.SO . (wt�6 - - - ' ...es # o tiREEYTRF F_l'R❑_ ..7`+yC ". /. �Qg" LFR r. D r • !! w �Fy�C70K-�.I im--,5 @FRGISikt7 • . �-"c. j 71 ! •. r .OV _ T t x _ •rye r[ I 01 i' ,__ .( I 7;r- -:- '-....,.,,...t::,,.-5.- ,:„.......,_!iii , ., . _. . . .0. .,,s,. ,..,. .., ,...„4 1, +^ - 47 ^r CHILL75 Ii C1ilk V-2' �' �y6 ,i_,- rn, en -' . . f -0 D.25. .D.S `1w _.•Arab it J' .I Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status IIIII Constraints Development Status Developed Partially Vacant Vacant ./ Study Area APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 49 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 50 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones. This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density and Housing Mix Table 4 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis.The proportion of units expected to be developed as Single Family Detached, Middle Housing, and Multi-Family are also shown. Table 4. Unit Density and Mix Assumptions Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net 95% 5% DU/AC net R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area.4.3 4.3 du/ac net 95% 5% du/ac net. R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 5.8 du/ac 95% 5% du/ac net • Residential-Medium Density Zones • R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, 'r8 du/ac per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for 90% 5% 5% single-family. 1,500 for townhouse. • R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac —8 du/ac 95% 5% theoretically possible. R-6 First Addition —7 du/ac Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for 95% 5% Single-Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 50 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 51 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 —12 du/ac 70% 10% 20% min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac).Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-W ^'12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% Mixed Use Zones West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes "'5 du/ac Grove "R-5 density or greater" Residential - 50% 50% Mixed Use (WLG RMU) West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes 35 du/ac expected in Grove Office- "R-5 density or greater" BFR Staging Site, - 20% 80% Commercial nothing in other areas (WLG OC) Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes Generally applies to Institutional "R-5 density or greater." Marylhurst University, (CI) Must have commercial on which is treated - - 100% ground floor. separately. Campus 54 du/ac for projects Research& that include residential Table 50.03.002-2 notes Development (-30%of the district, as - - 100% (CR&D) "R-5 density or greater" above) based on LU 19- 0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes ^'56 du/ac Commercial "R-5 density or greater." o (EC) Must have commercial on - - 100/ ground floor. Foothills Table 50.03.002-2 notes ^'56 du/ac Mixed Use "R-5 density or greater" - - 100% (FMU) General Table 50.03.002-2 notes —27 du/ac based on Commercial "R-5 density or greater." Mercantile project (LU (GC) Must have commercial on 18-0026) ground floor. Residential o 0 not allowed "In the GC- 25/ 75/ zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road." Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes 8 du/ac(or R-5 density) Commercial "R-5 density or greater" for the 10%that may - - 100% (HC) develop as residential APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 51 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 52 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes 67 du/ac for the 50% Commercial "R-5 density or greater." that may develop as (NC) Must have commercial on residential (based on LU - 50% 50% ground floor. _ 07-0031) Office Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes 21 du/ac for the 50% (OC) "R-5 density or greater" that may develop as residential (based on - - 100% Galewood Commons Apartments) Summary of Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area, and Table 6 shows the breakdown of capacity by zoning designation. Land with a known development approval has been removed and is accounted for in a later step. Table 5. Capacity of Residential and Mixed Use Land Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Residential 174 705 Mixed Use 10 146 Non-Residential - - Public/Other - - Total 185 851 Table 6. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Land Type Unit Capacity Residential Land 705 Mixed Use Land 146 EC/R-0 5 CR&D 14 R-0 2 EC 67 R-10 241 GC 12 R-10 Comp Plan 14 NC 23 R-15 131 NC/R-0 9 R-3 28 OC/R-3 5 R-5 116 R-0 8 R-7.5 149 WLG-OC 7 R-7.5 Comp Plan 3 WLG-R RMU 1 R-DD 12 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 3 Total Capacity: 851 Units APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 52 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 53 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 7.Mix of Unit Capacity on Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Unit Capacity Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Units Units Units Residential 705 648 39 17 Mixed Use 146 5 23 118 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Total 851 653 62 136 Additional Capacity: In addition to the capacity listed above,the following categories of additional residential unit capacity have been identified.These are listed in Table 7, along with the expected mix of housing units. • Approved Development. Several parcels have land use approvals and/or are actively undergoing development. Where information about the unit capacity of these approvals is known,that information is used as future capacity(rather than an average assumption based on the zoning designation).These approvals are listed in Table 8. • Additional Middle Housing Capacity: Due to the City's middle housing legislation, most single family lots can be converted to duplexes or other middle housing types.The number of new units expected to be created through this process in the planning horizon is estimated at 1.5%of developed lots with single-detached dwellings outside of PUDs/easements.This totals 110 Units3. • Redevelopment of Commercial Land and Town Centers: An initial "strike price" analysis4 found very few properties that appear to be good candidates for redevelopment at$30/sf.Value per square foot for many properties along Kruse Way and in Town Centers is generally$50/sf or greater.There may be some opportunity to utilize parking areas for new residential uses, depending on the City's development code and many other factors,though additional commercial infill is also a possibility. For the purposes of this BLI, no redevelopment capacity is assumed. 3 A previous version of this analysis assumed 3%of all single detached units, regardless of whether they were located in a PUD. Feedback from stakeholders and DLCD was that this infill assumption seemed high and was unrealistic due to the prevalence of CC&Rs in Lake Oswego. "Strike Price" is a measure of land and building value per square foot at which a developer is assumed to be able to profitably redevelop a piece of property.The 2018 Metro BLI used a strike price of$12/sf for suburban jurisdictions—this analysis examine a more aggressive$30/sf and still found very few candidates for redevelopment. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 53 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 54 OF 1 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 8. Parcels with Approved Development and Assumed Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Multi- Land Type Taxlot(s) Family Capacity Units Housing Units Units 21E18AB00400 Habitat for Humanity 21E18AB00300 Townhomes 21E18AB00200 23 0 23 0 [Link] 21E18AB00100 21E18AA00400 5400 Meadows [Link] 21E07BA00900 160 0 0 160 21E08AB02100 Twin Fir Road 2 2 0 0 21E08AB02000 The Boulder 21E07DD02300 [Link] 21E07DD02500 11 0 0 11 21E14DB02900 21E14 00300 21E14 00400 21E14 00401 21E14 00402 Marylhurst University 21E14 00403 170 0 0 170 21E14 00404 21E14 90000 21E14 900A1 21E14 900B2 Total 366 2 23 341 Table 9.Summary of Unit Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Capacity Units Units Units Vacant & Partially 851 653 62 136 Vacant Land Approved 366 2 23 341 Developments Additional Middle Housing Infill 110 110 Total 1,327 655 195 477 Next Steps This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. It forms part of the factual basis for City policies to address any deficiencies in unit capacity. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 54 LU 23-0023 ATTACHMENT 2 (Ordinance 2934)/PAGE 55 OF 1 �LA F MEMORANDUM Iv �wow 0 fa TO: Planning Commission/Commission for Citizen Involvement FROM: Erik Olson, Senior Planner SUBJECT: House Bill 2003 Work Session #1 DATE: June 15, 2022 MEETING DATE: June 27, 2022 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY&ACTION REQUESTED This memo provides background on the Commission's upcoming work session scheduled for June 27, 2022, which will include a presentation from staff regarding a proposed work plan to comply with the requirements of House Bill 2003, enacted by the State Legislature in 2019 (HB 2003). The bill requires cities to analyze what housing is needed for current and future residents through a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA), and to adopt a Housing Production Strategy (HPS) that outlines what actions the City will take to address the needs identified. The State Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) has established a timeline for cities to comply with HB 2003. The City of Lake Oswego is required to update its HNA by December 31, 2023, and to complete an HPS by December 31, 2024. The City Council prioritized this work as part of its 2022 goals and initiatives, which included attaining compliance with HB 2001 (Middle Housing), completed earlier this year, and HB 2003. Staff has drafted a multi-phased work plan to amend the City's Comprehensive Plan, with work conducted simultaneously on the HNA and HPS from approximately October 2022 through July 2024. The purpose of the July 27 work session is for the Commission to provide guidance to staff on the proposed work plan to comply with the requirements of HB 2003 prior to issuing a request for proposals (RFP) to solicit consultant services to assist with the work. BACKGROUND House Bill 2003 HB 2003 was adopted by the Oregon Legislature in 2019, concurrently with HB 2001, in order to help local jurisdictions meet the housing needs of residents throughout the state (see Attachment B). The bill requires Oregon cities with over 10,000 residents to analyze their future housing needs, including the needs of existing and future residents, through an HNA, and to develop strategies designed to promote the development of such needed housing through 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO BOX 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 1 OF 136 Page 2 an HPS. The bill also launched a prototype Regional Housing Needs Analysis (RHNA) in order to explore a statewide program where housing need is studied and addressed on a regional level; the RHNA program is still under development by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). Historically, HNAs have been coordinated at the county level, except that in the Portland metro area, Metro has provided regional population and employment forecasts to guide local planning. DLCD conducted rulemaking efforts related to HB 2003 the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) has adopted relevant Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR 660- 008-0045 through -0070) in November 2020. These rules established the components that are required to be included within an HPS Report, as well as the criteria for compliance for cities that do not meet their identified housing need. Housing Needs Analysis An HNA is a document, incorporated into a city's comprehensive plan by ordinance, which assesses housing need and capacity over the course of a 20-year planning horizon. An HNA must include the inventory, determination, and analysis required under ORS 197.296 (Factors to establish sufficiency of buildable lands within urban growth boundary)(3): (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 ("Needed housing"defined) and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. The City last updated its HNA in 2013 as part of an update to the Comprehensive Plan; the HNA is currently an appendix to the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing chapter of the Comprehensive Plan (see Attachment A). Under the requirements of HB 2003, cities with over 10,000 residents within the Portland Metro Boundary are now required to update their Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) every six years. Though it has been more than six years since the City adopted its HNA, DLCD maintains a schedule (Attachment D) that requires Lake Oswego to adopt an updated HNA by December 31st, 2023. Staff intends to issue an RFP for consultant services to assist with the technical work, which will include a projection of housing needs, an inventory of residential buildable lands, an analysis of residential development capacity, and the adoption of a final HNA into the City's Comprehensive Plan (see Attachment F). 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 2 OF 136 Page 3 Housing Production Strategy After the HNA has been updated, HB 2003 requires that cities then proceed to adopt an HPS within one year of the date of HNA adoption. The HPS must identify a set of specific tools, actions, and policies that the City will utilize in order to address the housing needs identified in the HNA, as well as a timeline for adopting and implementing each strategy. As outlined in Attachment C, there are five major components of an HPS: 1. Contextualized Housing Need— Identify the relevant social and demographic trends, existing adopted measures, market conditions, barriers to housing, and housing needs of underrepresented populations; 2. Engagement—Conduct meaningful engagement with both consumers and producers of needed housing; 3. Strategies to Meet Future Housing Need—Outline the strategies proposed to meet housing need, including a timeline for adoption, a timeline for implementation, and the anticipated depth and breadth of the impact of the strategies; 4. Achieving Fair and Equitable Housing Outcomes— Describe how the proposed strategies will achieve equitable outcomes with respect to location /transportation, fair housing, housing choice, homelessness, opportunities for affordable housing, and gentrification /displacement; and 5. Conclusion—Address any opportunities, constraints, or negative externalities associated with adoption of the elements of proposed strategies, provide a detailed list of actions to implement the strategies, and describe which metrics will be used to measure progress. The HPS review process will be managed by DLCD, who will review and approve an HPS based on the accuracy and sufficiency of the strategies being proposed, based upon the following factors: • Unmet housing need; • The proportion of households identified as severely rent-burdened; • Recent housing development; • Recent adoption of an HPS or implementation of actions therein; • City response to addressing needs of those experiencing homelessness; • Increased access to housing opportunity; • Elimination of barriers to fair and equitable housing options; and • Other relevant attributes that the Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission deems to be relevant. Cities are also required to provide updates to DLCD at "mid-term checkpoints" every three years in order to evaluate the progress and effectiveness of their HPS. This process will ask cities to reflect upon which strategies were successful, which were not successful, and to 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 3 OF 136 Page 4 identify ways for cities to modify their strategies to ensure housing needs are adequately being addressed. To help cities as they produce HPS Reports for compliance with HB 2003, DLCD created a guidance document containing a list of potential housing production strategies that jurisdictions can select from in order promote housing production within their community (see Attachment E). The strategies in this document are broken out into distinct categories for easy reference, ranging from zoning and code changes to financial incentives, financial resources, reducing regulatory impediments, tax exemption and abatement, and securing land for needed housing. PROPOSED WORK PLAN Staff has drafted a multi-phased work plan in order to amend the City's Comprehensive Plan to comply with HB 2003 while meeting the deadlines mandated by the state (see Attachment F). The proposed work plan begins with the issuance of an RFP in August of this year, in order to select a consultant to commence work in October 2022. The selected consultant would then work with City staff to initiate the "project kickoff" process, including a kickoff meeting with critical project stakeholders, research and information gathering related to housing needs in Lake Oswego, the refinement of a public involvement plan, and the creation of outreach materials to keep the public informed of upcoming engagement opportunities related to HB 2003. After the project kickoff, the consultant would proceed to work with City staff to conduct extensive research, data gathering, and public outreach in order to produce a projection of housing need, an inventory of buildable residential lands, an analysis of residential land needs, and other components required to be included the updated HNA document. Staff would then bring the draft HNA forward for public hearings at the Planning Commission and City Council in order to ensure that the HNA is adopted into the City's Comprehensive Plan before December 31St, 2023. The project would transition towards the development of an HPS in late 2023, starting with the identification of different housing strategy alternatives available to the City in order to address the housing needs identified in the HNA. These alternatives would be refined through continued public outreach and engagement, which will then guide the development of a draft HPS Report for City consideration. The HPS would then be brought forward to public hearings at the PC and City Council in order to ensure that it is adopted into the City's Comprehensive Plan within less than a year of the most recent HNA's adoption. As another component of this process, staff has recommended that City Council appoint an Ad- Hoc Advisory Committee to provide high-level guidance to the Planning Commission and City Council as they work to identify critical housing needs and recommend strategies to address them. Staff suggests that a Housing Strategy Advisory Committee (HSAC) be comprised of a representative group of elected and appointed officials including members of City boards and 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 4 OF 136 Page 5 commissions, housing producers, and housing consumers within Lake Oswego, with a specific focus on equity outcomes from the City's housing work—including meeting the needs of low- income communities, communities of color, people with disabilities, and other state and federal protected classes (as defined in OAR 660-008-0050(3)(d)(C)). The committee would meet regularly between October 2022 and March 2024 to review and provide feedback on consultant work products. Staff also proposes regular "check-ins" with the Commission and City Council prior to the consideration of a draft HNA at public hearings, as well as "check-ins" in early 2024 prior to the consideration of a draft HPS Report. These meetings will provide the Commission with several opportunities to refine policy direction relevant to the identification of housing needs and the development of housing production strategies, and will allow the Commission to receive more updated guidance from City Council in order to better inform more detailed decision-making later in the process. ATTACHMENTS (LINKS) A. City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis, 03/19/2013, click here B. Enrolled House Bill 2003, 06/30/2019 C. Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Q&A, 02/23/2021 D. Housing Capacity Analysis Update Schedule, 01/04/2022 E. Housing Production Strategy Program - List of Tools, Actions, and Policies, 02/14/2022 F. HB 2003 Proposed Work Plan and Schedule, 06/08/2022 To view these documents and other documents in the public records file, visit the Planning Project webpage: https://www.ci.oswego.or.us/planning/pp-22-0005-housing-needs-and-production-strategies 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 5 OF 136 EXHIBIT 4 ORDINANCE 2640 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis June 26, 2012 Updated March 19, 2013 C'of LAKE OSWEGO OREGON 03//1922/1.�3ppop 5 ir,h Exhpiibiitt 44/-Page 1 March 19, 2013 Update 03//1992/1.�3pppp ir,� Exhibit 4/Page 2 F p $ PEAT-8 3 AEXN T-D=�ITA�EC/ JF'1S62 March 19, 2013 Update Acknowledgements The City appreciates grant funds received from the State of Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)for technical consultant assistance to complete this document. We thank the following citizens for their dedicated work on this topic. Comprehensive Plan Citizen Advisory Committee: Councilor Sally Moncrieff, Chair Katie Abbott Dorothy Atwood Tom Brennan Christopher Clee Doug Cushing Tom Fahey Bill Gaar Nancy Gronowski Liz Hartman Jim Johnson Tim Mather Bob Needham Teri Oelrich David White Goal 9 & 10 Work Group: Tom Brennan Doug Cushing Julia Glisson Jon Gustafson Liza Hartman Councilor Sally Moncrieff Dan Vizzini Planning Commission: John Gustafson, Chair Lynne Paretchan, Vice Chair Puja Bhutani Julia Glisson Jim Johnson Russell Jones Todd Prager Jeff Gudman, Council Liaison City Staff: Dennis Egner, AICP, Assistant Planning Director Sidaro Sin, LEED AP, Senior Planner Sarah Selden, Associate Planner Laura Weigel, AICP, LEED AP, Associate Planner Jane Blackstone, Economic Development Manager Debra Andreades, AICP, Senior Planner Consultants: Kirstin Green, AICP, Principal Cogan Owens Cogan Steve Faust, AICP, Senior Planner, Cogan Owens Cogan Todd Chase, AICP, LEED AP, FCS Group This document updates and builds upon the work the Draft Housing Needs Assessment created by Winterbrook Planning and ECONorthwest in 2009-2010. 03/19/13 it Exhibit 4/Page 3 PEO3.pp 0� 3 AEXNTBIJD='1TAUSUF'1 62 March 19, 2013 Update TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 5 Introduction: Background and Context 9 Requirements 9 Vision and Goals (Local Aspirations) 10 Demographic and Population Overview 11 Demographic Trends and Forecasts 11 Housing Sales and In-Migration Trends 17 Population Forecast 21 Housing Land Supply and Capacity Analysis 21 Buildable Land Inventory 22 Redevelopment Analysis 24 Housing Needs Analysis 26 Housing Requirements 26 Comparison of Residential Capacity and Projected Demand 29 Future Needed Housing Types and Land 29 Summary and Policy Options 32 Implementation Strategies 32 Demographic Trends 32 Vacant Land Supply/Redevelopment 33 Metropolitan Housing Rule 33 Other Housing Strategies for Consideration 34 APPENDIX A. Housing Attainability Analysis for Lake Oswego USB 35 APPENDIX B. Federal Poverty Thresholds 36 APPENDIX C. Options for Providing New Dwellings within Lake Oswego USB 37 03//199/1. p 3 it Exhibitit 4/Page 4 PEO3p 0� 3 AEXNTBI D='1TAUVO ' 6 2 March 19, 2013 Update EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides an evaluation of Lake Oswego's 20-year housing needs to inform the update of the City's Comprehensive Plan. Specifically, it provides the technical background to assist the City and community in developing policies that will implement the community's vision for 2035 while complying with state housing goals and requirements. This report was originally drafted during winter- spring 2011 and was updated in June 2012 primarily to reflect most recent Census information and 2012 median family income levels. The report was updated again in March 2013 to reflect consistency with the Metro adopted 2035 forecast. The Housing Needs Analysis will be adopted by reference when the Comprehensive Plan is adopted by ordinance in 2013, and serve as a factual basis for goals and policies. Lake Oswego's draft vision for Complete Neighborhoods and Housing states: We have a wide variety of neighborhoods with high quality, attractive and compatible housing that serves a range of ages, incomes and households. Our distinct and walkable neighborhoods contribute to the city's small town feel. Mixed-use districts enhance adjacent residential areas by providing access to quality jobs, housing, transit, entertainment, services and shopping. Higher density housing is located strategically and sensitively, including along transportation corridors and town centers to preserve the character of our existing neighborhoods. The State Goal for Housing states that: Buildable lands for residential use shall be inventoried and plans shall encourage the availability of adequate numbers of needed housing units at price ranges and rent levels which are commensurate with the financial capabilities of Oregon households and allow for flexibility of housing location, type and density. Demographic and Housing Forecast To meet both local and state goals, this document looks at population projections and demographic trends, along with Lake Oswego's housing trends. It then evaluates the current inventory of buildable land, which includes land that is vacant, partially-vacant (could be divided), and likely to redevelop (more intensely developed) over the 20-year planning period. Next the report allocates the total number of needed dwelling units to price ranges, dwelling types, and zoning categories to meet the needs of area households. Finally the report reconciles the housing need with land supply, and describes possible strategies to meet future needs along with implementing the community's vision and state requirements. In the fall of 2012, Metro completed its updated employment and housing forecast for 2035. Metro's updated forecasts incorporate local input to make the forecast consistent with the work conducted as part of the City's 2011 draft Housing Needs Analysis. The Metro numbers are slightly higher than the Household Forecast described this report, however the difference of less than two hundred households over twenty-five years is not significant enough to be of concern for planning purposes. Updated City and Metro forecasts are shown on the following page. The Lake Oswego City Council was presented with these forecasts along with the employment forecasts in September 2012, and on October 9, 2012 accepted the forecasts listed below, which were presented in the October 9, 2012 Council Report. The Metro Council adopted this Metro forecast for households on November 29, 2012. 03//199/1.3pp ,q�T,�Exhibit 4/Page 5 G F g PL33 0� 3 " EXHIBIT U=1T1311 g TsY 6P1362 March 19, 2013 Update 2010 2035 2010 -2035 Average Units Estimate Projection Change Annual Change Population 43,094 51,000 8,006 320 City Forecast— 19,166 22,726 3,560 142 Households Metro Forecast— 19,556 23,299 3,743 150 Households According to U.S. Census estimates, the median age of Lake Oswego residents increased from 41.2 years in 2000 to 45.8 years of age in 2010. This is more than nine years older than the median age of residents within the Portland Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (36.7). As older Baby Boomers tend to desire to remain in their current residence or community as long as possible, the population over age 75 is expected to increase measurably over the coming decades, while the 24-55 cohort is projected to shrink. If trends continue, the younger population cohorts (age 5-14) are likely to remain flat or experience negative growth. Housing Land Supply Lake Oswego's land area is designated primarily for residential use, with nearly 60% of the land within the USB zoned for low-density residential development with minimum lot sizes of 7,500-15,000 sq. ft. Lake Oswego has a relatively new housing stock, with only 13% built prior to 1950, and 26% built since 1990. The housing is primarily owner-occupied, though attached and multi-family housing represented an increasing share of new development since 2000 (65%). Median home prices reached their peak in 2005 and have since fallen an average of nearly 33%, to $338,100. Lake Oswego has approximately 600 acres of vacant and part-vacant land, the large majority of which fall into the part-vacant category, meaning they are at least 2.5 times the minimum lot size for the zone, and could be divided to form additional lots. Over 90 percent of this land is located on lots zoned for a minimum size of at least 7,500 sq. ft. The buildable land inventory also includes an analysis of redevelopment potential on medium and high-density residential land, and on commercial land where housing is a permitted use along with commercial uses (referred to in this document as "mixed use" zones). This analysis examines where these zones have developed below their potential capacity, and may add additional units in the future, assuming that properties have redevelopment potential when the building value is up to 150% of the land value. The analysis demonstrated a large capacity for new high-density units in mixed-use areas like Downtown and Lake Grove Village Center. Including vacant, part-vacant, and redevelopable land, Lake Oswego's total buildable land inventory could accommodate approximately 5,500 new units. Housing Need In addition to determining the total number of needed units based on population forecast, the State requires jurisdictions to provide housing that is "commensurate with the financial capabilities of Oregon households." This report used Clackamas County's demographics to demonstrate attainability needs for future residents. Based on the County income distribution, Lake Oswego's demographic trends and land supply, the following mix of housing types was estimated to meet future needs: 03/19/13 Exhibit 4/Page 6 PL33.18 q�T�� ITA'S GT 0 F3 g 2 March 19, 2013 Update Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All Dwelling Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Units Housing Tenure Distribution: 60.0% 40.0% 100% Housing Unit/Type Distribution Detached Large Lot SF (>5,000 sq.ft. lot size) 34% 4% 22.0% Detached Small Lot SF "cottages" (<+5,000 sq.ft. lot size) 18% 5% 12.8% Attached SF (Rowhouses, Secondary Dus, 30% 8% 21.2% Zero Lot Line DUs) Duplex/Triplex 10% 11% 10.4% Multifamily (Apartments, Condos) 8% 72% 33.6% Total 100% 100% 100% Conclusion The results of the housing analysis (see Table 20, p. 29) indicate that the Lake Oswego Urban Services Boundary has an adequate amount of vacant and part-vacant, and redevelopable land area to meet the 2035 forecasts for its projected housing needs. While the low-density dwellings can be accommodated on vacant and part vacant land, the community will need to rely on redevelopment in existing medium- and high-density residential zones and mixed-use zones to meet the projected need for smaller and attached housing types. In order to realize the housing redevelopment potential described in this report, the City will need to develop new strategies such as incentives or requirements for new development in the town centers to include a minimum number of housing units. In addition, re-zoning and redevelopment of the area identified in the Foothills District Plan provides an additional opportunity to create high-density housing units and may lower the needed capacity for high-density housing units through redevelopment in mixed-use and high-density residential areas. In addition to supporting the right size and type of dwelling unit, the city may need to establish strategies to help ensure a range of housing prices is maintained over time, in particular to provide affordable housing for residents earning less than 80 percent of the median family income, which represents 45 percent of Clackamas County households and 30 percent of Lake Oswego households. To meet the State's Metropolitan Housing Rule, Lake Oswego will be updating its development code to ensure that all new housing may be developed under clear and objective review standards that do not have the effect of discouraging housing or reducing the proposed housing density as allowed through zoning. Finally, the Housing Rule requires cities within the Metro Urban Growth Boundary to provide minimum zoned density levels. Lake Oswego must provide for an average density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. Lake Oswego has demonstrated compliance with this rule at each Periodic Review since the City's original acknowledgement of its 1978 Comprehensive Plan. In 1994, DLCD acknowledged Lake Oswego's average density at 10.2 dwelling units/acre. Consistent with the City's 03//199/1.3pp ,q�T,�Exhibit 4/Page 7 G F g PL33 0� 3 " EXHIBIT- g-rFalak Tf 0FC 362 March 19, 2013 Update last acknowledgement, Lake Oswego plans to demonstrate its average density "based on the jurisdiction BLI at the time of acknowledgment as updated," which the City's preliminary analysis shows continues to meet the 10 dwelling units/acre requirement. The information in this report, along with a preferred land use scenario and updated population forecast, will form the starting place of the community's Comprehensive Plan policy discussion for Complete Neighborhoods and Housing, meeting Lake Oswego's housing needs for the next 20 years by providing "high quality, attractive and compatible housing that serves a range of ages, incomes and households." 03/19/13 Exhibit 4/Page 8 PEO3. 3 YXHIiI IF• GY 8 F3 g 2 March 19, 2013 Update INTRODUCTION: BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The City of Lake Oswego is conducting a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) as required by its State of Oregon Comprehensive Plan Periodic Review Work Program to update its long-range Comprehensive Plan (Plan) by June, 2013. The City received grant funds from the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) for technical consultant assistance to help update Goal 10 of the Plan. The City also elected to take advantage of periodic review to create a comprehensive vision for the City to guide policies, investments and associated implementing actions. This HNA presents current and projected demographic and housing data within the statewide land use planning regulatory context. The assessment of housing needs and development potential frames preliminary implementation actions for the City to consider in order to provide housing opportunities consistent with legal requirements and community aspirations. Requirements As part of its Comprehensive Plan update, the City must address its Plan chapter associated with statewide land use planning Goal 10 (OAR 660-015-0000), its implementing/guiding measure, the Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007), and the Portland Metropolitan Area Functional Plan Title 1, Requirements for Housing and Employment Accommodation. The intent of Goal 10 is to ensure provision for the housing needs of citizens of the State; and to ensure that each city accommodates its fair share of regional housing needs. To this end, Goal 10 requires that cities demonstrate sufficient buildable land that could produce a range of housing types appropriate to meet housing needs'. State laws in this area require that a range of housing types must be accommodated within Lake Oswego. Approval standards for needed housing types and densities must be "clear and objective" and must not have the effect, individually or cumulatively, of discouraging needed housing through unreasonable cost or delay.2 Statewide Metropolitan Housing Rule In the Portland Metro region, Goal 10 is also implemented through the Metropolitan Housing Rule (MHR), OAR Chapter 660, Division 007. The rule applies to the cities and three counties within the Metro Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), including Lake Oswego, and addresses the Metro area as a regional market in terms of housing demand and buildable land supply and establishes minimum housing type and density standards for each city. An important requirement of the MHR for Lake Oswego is to zone land to provide the opportunity for new residential construction to consist of at least 50% attached housing, and to provide an overall density of 10 or more dwelling units per net buildable acre3. 1 See ORS 197.295 through 197.314, also known as"the needed housing statutes." 2 See ORS 197.307(6): "Any approval standards, special conditions and the procedures for approval adopted by a local government shall be clear and objective and may not have the effect, either in themselves or cumulatively, of discouraging needed housing through unreasonable cost or delay." See also OAR 660-007-0015: "Clear and Objective Approval Standards Required Local approval standards, special conditions and procedures regulating the development of needed housing must be clear and objective, and must not have the effect, either of themselves or cumulatively, of discouraging needed housing through unreasonable cost or delay." 3 OAR 660-007-(3) Multnomah County and the cities of Portland, Gresham, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Lake Oswego and Tigard must provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. These are larger urbanized jurisdictions with regionally coordinated population projections of 50,000 or more for their active planning areas, which encompass or are near major employment centers, and which are situated along regional transportation corridors. 03/19/13 Exhibit t44/Page 9 PEO3.pp p G g 0n3 EXHIBIT U /PA�G�T 0FC F 36g 2 March 19, 2013 Update Metro's Urban Growth Management Functional Plan Title 1 Title 1 of Metro's Urban Growth Management Functional Plan is intended to promote efficient land use for housing and employment within the Metro UGB. This Functional Plan is essentially a regional Comprehensive Plan and seeks to assure that each city plans for adequate capacity of buildable land to accommodate future housing. The primary tool for achieving this objective is for local governments to determine the location of 2040 Growth Concept design types (town centers, main streets, corridors, etc.) and incorporate these designations into adopted comprehensive plans. In 1999, the 2040 Growth Concept design types were incorporated into the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan by Ordinance 2204. Title 1 previously established dwelling unit capacity targets for each local government based primarily on the amount of buildable land and refill assumptions for each jurisdiction. In 1998 and 2002, Metro found that Lake Oswego met Title 1 capacity requirements. In December 2010, the Metro Council adopted Ordinance 10-1244B, known as the "capacity ordinance." This ordinance replaced the dwelling capacity target number with a "no net loss policy." Title 1 now requires the City to maintain the existing dwelling unit capacity by ensuring that any proposed zone change does not reduce the City's overall dwelling unit capacity. The draft Metro Urban Growth Report (UGR) (December 2009) is currently being updated with an expected completion date of December 2011. Lake Oswego will continue working with Metro toward a coordinated local dwelling unit forecast for 2035 through their periodic review Plan update process. Vision and Goals (Local Aspirations) The City of Lake Oswego has prepared a draft 2035 vision statement which includes seven specific action areas. Goal 10 is addressed by the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing action area, which states: We have a wide variety of neighborhoods with high quality, attractive and compatible housing that serves a range of ages, incomes and households. Our distinct and walkable neighborhoods contribute to the city's small town feel. Mixed-use districts enhance adjacent residential areas by providing access to quality jobs, housing, transit, entertainment, services and shopping. Higher density housing is located strategically and sensitively, including along transportation corridors and town centers to preserve the character of our existing neighborhoods. While Lake Oswego's vision for Complete Neighborhoods and Housing includes an aspiration to accommodate a range of ages, incomes and households, demographic trends indicate an aging population. The largest population cohort in Lake Oswego is the 45 to 64 year age group, compared to Clackamas County and the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), where the 20 to 44 year old cohort is the largest. This suggests that people are remaining in or moving to Lake Oswego to retire. This trend indicates a need to plan for housing oriented toward older age groups that typically desire well-located, safe, smaller units with lower property maintenance requirements. For more information on the needs of this age group, see A Community Vision for Aging in Lake Oswego, Report on the City of Lake Oswego 50+ Community Dialogues. Lake Oswego also has relatively few younger, working-age families when compared with Clackamas County and the region. Discussions with the Comprehensive Plan Citizen Advisory Committee and the community as a whole have indicated a specific desire to attract more young families with children, which are vital to the city and schools in particular. 03/PLlT3 8 3 ARNIVD='1/ IV a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update DEMOGRAPHIC AND POPULATION OVERVIEW Demographic Trends and Forecasts Lake Oswego is located in the desirable inner-urban area within the greater Portland region. This location is considered advantageous for accessing downtown Portland and its surrounding communities within a manageable commute. Downtown Lake Oswego's ongoing renaissance and the city's excellent parks, schools and community facilities continue to serve as attributes that make it a desirable place to live, work and visit. As Figure 1 indicates, the U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 census count estimated there to be approximately 36,619 people in the City of Lake Oswego'', which is an increase of 1,341 people since the 2000 U.S. Census.5 This figure also demonstrates the rate of growth by decade over the last century, which slowed considerably in the last ten years. For comparison purposes, Figure 2 shows the more recent twenty-year growth trend and population estimates prepared by Portland State University, which indicate a population of 36,845 within the Lake Oswego city limits as of July 1, 2010. Figure 1. Lake Oswego Historic Population Trends, 1920-2010 City of Lake Oswego Population Trends, 1920- 2010 (source: U.S. Census) 40,000 36,619 35,000 35,278 30,000 30,570 25,000 22,527 20,000 14,573 15,000 - io 000 8,906 3,316 5,000 1,818 1 1,285 1,727 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census;compiled by FCS Group. 4 The Census area is slightly larger than the city limits,but smaller than the urban services boundary(USB). a Limited Census 2010 information was available at the conclusion of the grant period.Where information was available,it was included. o3/Pp 13 Exhibit 4/Page 11 EO3a9n3 ARN WD='TAEVi 6 61F(N 2 March 19, 2013 Update Figure 2. Lake Oswego Recent Population Trends, 1990-2011 City of Lake Oswego Population Trends, 1990 - 2011 (source:PSU) 40,000 35,000 - - 30000 25,000 20000 z5,000 i❑,n❑n 5❑00 o 1440 1441 1447 7943 1944 194'3 194{3 194/ 19414 11999 .,' II:, ;trur /011/ 71t74 f11n4 rxxr_, ;i3ur, 7tl[tl auuis 2003 2E M1} 7011 ntyPap_30,570 31,022'31,480j31,945 32,417 32,896.33.383:33,876,34,377 38405.400.35,565 35,733 35,840-•=.._I =,5,055 36,33036,325,36,570'36,755 36,84536,725 Source:Portland State University, Population Research Center;compiled by FCS Group. Lake Oswego experienced a net gain of approximately 1,097 households since year 2000, with an increase of 414 family households and 710 nonfamily households, which represents an increase in the share of nonfamily households when compared to the 2006-08 Census data. Another notable shift as indicated in Table 1 on the following page, is the decrease in average household size from 2000-2010, which indicates a recent trend when compared to the increase in household size that occurred between 2000 and 2006-8. More recent 2010 estimates by City of Lake Oswego Long Range Planning staff for the Lake Oswego USB indicate a relatively lower ratio of population to total dwelling units. Using GIS data, City staff estimates that there were 43,09 people and 19,166 dwelling units in the Lake Oswego Urban Service Boundary (USB) in 2010; with a ratio of people per dwelling unit of 2.25. The fact that this ratio is lower than the average household size estimate reported by the U.S. Census is to be expected, since the U.S. Census tallies only occupied dwelling units and population that resides in households (not group quarters) population. 03/PLlT �0H3 A Rilib 11/PAU97 6 2 March 19, 2013 Update Table 1. Lake Oswe•o Demo•raphic and Socio-economic Trends Census 2000 Census 2010 Change Population 35,237 36,619 1,382 Group Quarters Population 163 222 59 Households 14,796 15,893 1,097 Family Households 9,665 10,079 414 Nonfamily Households 5,104 5,814 710 Average Household Size 2.38 2.29 (0.09) Average Family Size 2.95 2.88 (0.07) Median Age 41.2 45.8 4.6 lK i&IIDII _1OKIIII:15tier Median Household Income (unadjusted) $71,597 $81,097 $9,500 Median Family Income (unadjusted) $94,587 $105,722 $11,135 Per Capita Income (unadjusted) $42,166 $47,704 $5,538 Median Household Income (inflation adjusted)* $98,883 $86,977 ($11,906) Median Family Income (inflation adjusted)* $130,634 $113,387 ($17,247) Per Capita Income (inflation adjusted)* $58,235 , $51,163 ($7,073) *Income data were adjusted to current June 2012 dollars by FCS Group based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,inflation calculator. Source:U.S. Census,2000 and 2010 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey, data compiled by FCS Group According to U.S. Census estimates, the median age of Lake Oswego residents also increased from 41.2 years in 2000 to 45.8 years of age in 2010. This is more than nine years older than the median age of residents within the Portland Vancouver MSA region (36.7). In fact, Lake Oswego has more residents over age 65 than all other cities in the greater Portland region, with the exception of King City. Table 2 indicates that Lake Oswego continues to retain and attract upper-income households. The portion of all households with annual income levels of more than $100,000 increased slightly from 35% to 38% from 2000 to 2008-10. While the portion of households earning below$75,000 fell slightly, this income level (just above the 2012 Median Family Income for Clackamas County) still represents 47% of all Lake Oswego Households. Table 2. Households b Income Level, Lake Oswego Income Cohort I C 7 Nu less than $14,999 861 5.8% 770 4.9% (91) -0.9% $15,000 to$34,999 2,338 15.8% 1,951 12.5% (387) -3.3% $35,000 to $74,999 4,472 30.2% 4,615 29.5% 143 -0.7% $75,000 to $99,999 1,931 13.0% 2,359 15.1% 428 2.1% $100,000 to$149,999 2,550 17.2% 2,361 15.1% (189) -2.1% $150,000 to$199,999 1,090 7.4% 1,602 10.2% 512 2.8% $200,000 or more 1,582 10.7% 1,989 12.7% 407 2.0% Total 14,824 100% 15,647 100% 823 -0.1% Source:2000 U.S. Census data income levels expressed in 1999 dollars, and 2008-2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey, income levels expressed in 2009 dollars. 03/PLlT T-0H3 AEXHI ill D=y/PAu9% a 6 2 March 19, 2013 Update According to the U.S. Census 2008-2010 American Community Survey, Lake Oswego's average per capita income was $47,704, median household income was $86,977, and median family income was $113,387 in 2012 dollar amounts. While average income levels in Lake Oswego have increased in nominal dollars, inflation adjusted income levels have fallen since 2000. This trend towards lower real income levels has been well- documented in the Portland region and nationally, and is primarily attributed to the shrinking income levels in middle-income households and higher costs of living for items such as housing, transportation, food, energy and health care. Poverty levels in Lake Oswego are relatively low in the region, however according to the U.S. Census 2006-2008 American Community Survey, Lake Oswego still has an estimated 2,602 people in poverty. A closer look at population age cohort patterns for Lake Oswego reflects the aging "Baby Boom" population, defined as those born between 1946 and 1965. As indicated in Figure 3 and Table 4, population cohorts that experienced the most significant increase are Baby Boomers within the 55-64 and 65-74 age ranges. These Baby Boomers age 55-74 recorded a combined gain of 4,315 people since 2000. As summarized in Figure 3 and Table 4 below, since 2000 there have been significant increases in the 55-64 and 65-74 age cohorts, with increases of 70% and 113% respectively. The only other increase occurred among the 15-19 age cohort with a minor 15 person gain. The 20-54 age cohorts experienced the most significant population decline, followed by the birth-age 14 cohort. Figure 3. Population Age Cohort Trends, Lake Oswego, 2000 and circa 2010 Population Pyramid for Lake Population Pyramid for Lake Oswego, 2000 Oswego, 2010 %of total pop.;source: U.S. Census %of total pop.;source: U.S. Census Age 75 + 2.1 s 1 female Age 75 + 1 2.7 4.9 female 65 to 74 2. 1.6 % 65 to 74 4.0 4.6 % 55to64 5.2 5.3 55 to 64 8.1 9.1 45 to 54 9.9 10 7 45 to 54 8.2 9.6 25 to 44 12.4 14 3 25 to 44 10,0 11,0 20 to 24 2.0 2.2 20 to 24 1.9 1.9 15 to 19 3. 1.2 15 to 19 3.4 3.2 10 to 14 4.2 .7 10 to 14 3,9 3,5 5 to 9 3. .4 5 to 9 3.0 2.8 Age5 - 26 24 Age 5 - 2.1 2.0 o3/Pp 13 Exhibit 4/Page 14 EO3a9n3 ARNIVD='1/ WA O '13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Table 4. Lake Oswe•o Area Po•ulation A•e Cohort Trends Percent Age Cohort (years) Census 2000 Census 2010 Change Change under 5 1,746 1,489 (257) -15% 5 to 9 2,426 2,129 (297) -12% 10 to 14 _ 2,810 2,694 (116) -4% 15 to 19 2,424 2,439 15 1% 20 to 24 1,470 1,403 (67) -5% 25 to 44 9,441 7,697 (1,744) -18% 45 to 54 7,267 6,548 (719) -10% 55 to 64 3,676 6,302 2,626 71% 65 to 74 1,477 3,166 1,689 114% 75+ 2,541 2,752 211 8% Total 35,278 36,619 1,341 4% Source: U.S. Census, 2000 and 2010. Lake Oswego area is slightly larger than city limits but smaller than the Urban Service Boundary. Figure 4. Lake Oswego Population Trends and Forecasts Source:U.S. Census(trend)and FCS GROUP(forecast) 100% 90% 80% - a 75+ 70% - 65 to 74 55 to 64 60% -; 45 to 54 50% - - - - -- _ 25 to 44 II 20 to 24 40% • 15 to 19 30% -'. :1 10 to 14 - _ ■ 5to9 20% - - - ■ under 5 10% - 0% - „ e ,,,c) ,„,, ,4) 6)9 6-v(i e 6-5 , „, r‘, r,... ,,, 11, `1, r),. 03/19/13 Exhibit 4/Pay 15 LO � n3 AliN ifnT/A ucA ,p62 March 19, 2013 Update Source:FCS Group. As older Baby Boomers tend to desire to remain in their current residence or community as long as possible, the population over age 75 is expected to increase measurably over the coming decades. However, the younger population cohorts (age 5-14) are likely to remain flat or experience negative growth. Table 5. Lake Oswe•o Area Annual Historic Po•ulation Growth Rates 10-Year Trend Long-Term Trend 2000 to 2010 1990 to 2010 Number AAGR% Number AAGR% Total Population 134 0.4% 302 0.9% Male 33 0.2% 133 0.8% Female 101 0.5% 169 1.0% Age Cohort(years) under 5 (26) -1.6% (14) -0.9% 5 to 9 (30) -1.3% 5 0.2% 10 to 14 (12) -0.4% 26 1.1% 15 to 19 2 0.1% 26 1.2% 20 to 24 (7) -0.5% 2 0.2% 25 to 44 _ (174) -2.0% (159) -1.7% 45 to 54 (72) -1.0% 101 1.9% 55 to 64 _ 263 _ 5.5% 188 4.7% 65 to 74 169 7.9% 58 2.3% 75+ 21 0.8% 69 3.6% Source: US Census.AAGR=average annual growth rate. A declining younger (school age) population is also evidenced by Lake Oswego School District enrollment levels. After maintaining enrollment levels above 7,000 students between 1995 and 2001, School District enrollment levels have declined over the past several years. Between 2001 and 2009, total school district enrollment declined to 6,702 students. The most significant enrollment decline occurred in the elementary school level, which lost 368 students over the 2001-2009 time period, while the junior high school enrollment dropped by 110 students. This decline was countered by a slight increase in high school enrollment of 26 students during this time period. Current 10-year student enrollment forecasts prepared by the Lake Oswego School District range from no growth (best case) to a loss of 342 students (most likely scenario) to a loss of 632 students (worst case). The School District intends to have an updated forecast in December 2012. Since housing demand is generally a function of population change and household size, it is important to understand how changing demographics translate into evolving housing needs. As indicated in Table 6A, U.S. Census estimates show the fastest growing segment of household formations in Lake Oswego since 2000 has occurred among senior households, while the household segment with members less than age 18 declined by 429 since 2000. o3/Pp 23a883 AUXNIVD='1/ UA a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update An analysis of marital status in Table 6A indicates that Lake Oswego is attracting and retaining single (unmarried) households and is "losing" married households with children; which often occurs as kids move away to college or for work, and the household becomes reclassified as "empty nesters." As evidenced by the data shown in Table 6A, the city is still attractive to single-parent households, but the number of married households with kids is declining. Table 6A. Lake Oswe•o Area Household Formation Trends twithold Type Census 2000 Census 2010 HHs with 1 or more<18 yrs 4,862 4,433 (429) HHs with 1 or more 18 to 65 yrs 7,049 6,996 (53) HHs with 1 or more >65 yrs 2,858 4,310 1,452 Total 14,769 15,739 970 Married,w/Kids under 18 yrs 3,918 3,522 (396) Married, no Kids 4,377 4915 538 Single, under age 65 2,958 3939 981 Single, over age 65 1,163 1,875 712 Other* 2,353 1,488 (865) Total 14,769 15,739 970 *Includes non-related people living together. Source: U.S. Census, 2000 and 2010, compiled by FCS Group. Table 6B below also shows that renter households have a significant share of the total households with children under age 18. This is an important consideration in the city's planning for future housing types and desire to attract more families with school-age children. Table 6B. Lake Oswego Households Tenure by Age of Related Children, 2010 Household Type Owner Renter Total With Children Under 18 3,473 1,085 4,558 With Children under 6 497 284 781 With Children between 6-17 449 622 1,071 With no Children under 18 7,477 3,858 11,335 Total 10,950 4,943 15,893 Source: U.S. Census, 2000 and 2010 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey, data compiled by FCS Group Housing Sales and In-Migration Trends The recent 2008-2009 economic recession created turmoil in the housing market for Lake Oswego, as with most cities across the United States. Median home prices in Lake Oswego have fallen about 33% since hitting a peak of$502,000 in February 2008. Median sales prices in Lake Oswego were $338,100 as of April 2012 according to Zillow.com, As indicated in Table 7, average home prices in Lake Oswego recorded a significant 13.5% decline from one year ago, with the median sales price now lower than West Linn. 03/PLlT 30H3 AEXH �D=i1/I'AU-ZZ &F 62 March 19, 2013 Update Table 7. Median Home Sales Price Trends in Selected Markets Year-Over Year Market Location Median Sales Price Median Sales Change,April 2011 Price to April 2012 Lake Oswego -13.5% $338,100 West Linn 16.5% $353,800 Tualatin 19.6% $337,900 Beaverton -3.0% $209,000 Portland 1.7% $252,800 Source:Zillow.corn In 2010, Lake Oswego's housing prices on a per-square-foot of floor area basis exceed neighboring jurisdictions in all price levels, with one exception in Portland. Average price/sq ft levels were higher in Lake Oswego relative to other jurisdictions with the exception of Portland homes priced between $350,000 and $500,000 as shown in tables Table 8 and Figure 5. Recent home sales in the Portland market in the $350,000 to $499,000 price category were dominated by relatively new condominium units with relatively small floor plans, hence the cost per square foot tends to exceed Lake Oswego in this price category. There are many reasons why a variation in sales price per square foot occurs, such as: relative property taxes, quality of public education/schools; community image; and perceived quality of life. Other factors, such as the relative age of housing structure and level of amenities also play a role in the sales price per square foot. With regard to the homes priced above $1 million, many of the most expensive homes in Lake Oswego are relatively new or rehabilitated dwellings with Mt. Hood Views and/or Oswego Lake access; amenities that command price premiums. Table 8. Average Home Sales Price Per SF of Floor Area in Selected Market Areas Average Home Sales Price Per SF of Floor Area in Selected Market Areas Price Range Lake Oswego Portland West Linn Tualatin Beaverton $349k or less $166 $157 $153 $137 $133 $350-499k $159 $166 $150 $146 $138 $500-699k $209 $197 $162 $156 $156 $700.999k $233 $184 $148 $184 $177 $1M or more $358 $255 n/a n/a n f a Lake Oswego Average Home Sales Prices Per SF Compared to: Price Range Portland West Linn Tualatin Beaverton $349k or less 106% 109% 122% 125% $350.499k 96% 106% 109% 115% $500-699k 106% 129% 134% 134% $700.999k 127% 157% 127% 132% $1M or more 140% n/a n/a n/a Source:Zillow.corrr;based on sample of actual housing sales over past 12months,•as of March 31, 2010 o3/Pp 13 Exhibit 4/Page 18 EO3a9n3 ARNIVD='1/ UA a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Figure 5. Average Home Sales Price Per SF by Price Range, March 2009 to March 2010 Average Home Sales Price Per Square Foot by Price Range, March 2009 to March 2010 (source Zillow.com) $400 $358 $350 $300 • Lake Oswego $255 $250 $233 • Portland $209 $1,7 West Linn $Z00 184 $184 $166 $166 162 $17 157 $159 $150 $156 $156 • Tualatin :::: $153 $146 14 $i133i"r8 Beaverton $50 $- $349k or less $350-499k $500-699k $700-999k $1M or more Source:FCS Group. One reason for the relatively high cost of Lake Oswego housing is the average age of the structure. Lake Oswego's housing stock is relatively new in comparison to the Portland market. In Lake Oswego, nearly 26% of the dwellings were built since 1990, while less than 17% of the inventory in Portland was built since 1990. In Lake Oswego, only 13% of the housing inventory was built before 1950, whereas in Portland, 57% of the inventory predates 1950. Lake Oswego housing is predominantly owner-occupied, with 64% of the total housing inventory occupied by owners and 29% occupied by renters. However, the share of multifamily dwellings as a percentage of the total housing inventory is increasing. As indicated in Figure 6 and Table 9, recent increases in the housing inventory have been predominantly made up of multifamily structures (apartments and condominiums) and single family attached (townhome) units, which together accounted for 65% of the total housing inventory additions since 2000, according to U.S. Census estimates. o3/Pp 23a88 3 ARRIT1 WAWA a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Figure 6. Lake Oswego Housing Inventory Additions, 2000 to 2010 (Source: U.S. Census) Mobile Horne 1% Adlit 1 li Single-Family g Y 1111. Detached 34% Multi-Family 48% Single-Family Attached/ Plexes 17% *Estimates for circa 2007 reflect data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey 2006-2008. Table 9. Lake Oswe s o Housin• Characteristics Census 2000 Census 2010 Change Dwelling Units Owner-Occupied 10,423 10,950 527 Renter-Occupied 4,346 4,943 597 Vacant* 972 1,102 130 Total Unit Count 15,741 16,995 1,254 Structure Type Census 2000 IW ACS 2008-10 Mang- Single-Family Detached 10,055 10,425 370 Single-Family Attached/Plexes 2,117 2,295 178 Multi-Family 3,470 3,984 514 Mobile Home 26 42 16 Total Unit Count 15,668 16,746 1,078 Illreretigi-. MS Median Home Value $296,200 $535,300 $239,100 Median Gross Rent $839 $1,111 $272 *indicates that data was obtained from 2010 census Source: U.S. Census, 2000 and 2010 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey, data compiled by FCS Group o3/PEAT-8813 AEXHh9 lvirPAucA p c 6 2 March 19, 2013 Update In light of the increase in seniors over the age of 65 and increase in married and single households without kids, the desired mix of future housing demand will likely be strongest for relatively smaller two bedroom dwelling units, including single family "cottages", multifamily apartments and low rise flats or condominiums. This report estimates about 10% of the population over the age of 75 will opt to live in assisted living facilities. Given that assumption, the City will likely see a measured increase in the demand for senior care assisted living facilities, but the vast majority of Lake Oswego Baby Boomers will opt to remain in their current residence as long as possible to "age in place". A significant share may also opt to relocate into smaller dwellings within Lake Oswego, if attainable housing alternatives exist. Population Forecast The population growth forecast for the Lake Oswego USB considered for this HNA are summarized in Table 10. Base year (2010) housing counts reflect current Lake Oswego Planning Department staff estimates for housing units within the Lake Oswego USB. Population 2010 base year estimates for the Lake Oswego USB assume 2.25 people per occupied housing unit, based on Lake Oswego Planning Department estimates. For regulatory compliance, Lake Oswego is required to adopt a forecast"consistent" with that which Metro establishes for Lake Oswego. At the time this report was originally developed in 2011, the most recent long-term jobs and households forecast for the Lake Oswego area was adopted by the Metro Council in 2005 (Metroscope Generation 2.3).The May 2011 draft of this report used two growth forecasts to explore a range of options while Metro worked with local jurisdictions to update the forecasts. In June 2012, the report was updated to be consistent with draft projections by Metro, and the forecast range was narrowed to the single "Medium Growth Forecast" originally presented in the May 2011 draft. In the fall of 2012, Metro completed its updated employment and housing forecast for 2035, which maintained consistency with the "Medium Growth Forecast" for households originally developed by the City. Updated City and Metro forecasts are shown on the table below. The Lake Oswego City Council was presented with these forecasts along with the employment forecasts in September 2012, and on October 9, 2012 accepted the forecasts listed below, which were presented in the October 9, 2012 Council Report. The Metro Council adopted Metro forecast for households on November 29, 2012. This forecast is based on Lake Oswego's capacity for future housing units on vacant, part-vacant and redevelopable land among other trends and market assumptions. Table 10. Summary of Growth Forecast 2010 2035 2010 - 2035 Average Units Estimate Projection Change Annual Change Population 43,094 51,000 8,006 320 City Forecast— 19,166 22,726 3,560 142 Households Metro Forecast— 19,556 23,299 3,743 150 Households o3/Pp 23 8 3 AUMVD='1T/ EE56 DIF'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update HOUSING LAND SUPPLY AND CAPACITY ANALYSIS The housing demand and vacant buildable lands inventory (BLI) methodology in this section should be consistent with the state Metropolitan Housing Rule (MHR) requirements. The following steps were performed: 1. Calculated gross BLI of vacant and part-vacant residential-zoned land in Lake Oswego USB. 2. Removed environmental constraints and land for public facilities. 3. Determined minimum and maximum housing capacity allowed with current zoning on vacant buildable lands. 4. Determined 20-year housing needs based on the growth forecast. 5. Compared dwelling demand forecast to dwelling capacity on vacant, part vacant and redevelopment lands using current zoning. 6. Applied MHR requirements: - Provide the opportunity for a 50/50 mix of attached and detached housing. - Provide for an overall density of 10 dwelling units/acre for needed land. - Provide types and densities for present and future area residents of all incomes. Buildable Land Inventory The City of Lake Oswego Planning Department estimates that the City has approximately 600 acres of buildable lands in residentially designated zones, including approximately 77 acres of vacant land and over 500 acres of part-vacant residentially zoned land as shown in Table 11. Part vacant land may have a structure on it, but the footprint of that structure could easily allow for further residential unit(s) on the site under current zoning. This analysis considered lots partially vacant if they were at least 2.5 times the minimum lot size for the zone. Table 11. Summary of Vacant and Part-Vacant Residential Buildable Land Inventory and Expected Dwelling Capacity Levels Residentially Designated Land and Buildable Land Inventory, Lake Oswego USB Total Area as Total Zone/Plan Acres % of Vacant Part Vacant/ Designation within Total Acres Vacant Part Vacant USB Land in Acres Acres USB R-0 225.7 2.7% 0.0 5.6 5.6 R-2 10.1 0.1% 2.2 0 2.2 R-2.5 3.2 <0.1% 0.4 0 0.4 R-3 166.6 2.0% 0.5 12.5 13.0 R-5 503.7 6.0% 4.4 18.1 22.5 R-6 104.2 1.2% 0.6 0 0.6 _ R-7.5 2122.2 25.2% 33.0 242.7 275.7 R-10 1921.8 22.8% 18.5 179.5 198.0 R-15 822.8 9.8% 17.7 80.5 98.2 Total I 77.3 538.9 616.2 Source: City of Lake Oswego, 2009. Table 12 shows that the vacant land area is zoned to accommodate approximately 447 new dwelling units under current zoning. o3/Pp 23a88 3 ARM Etl1r/ M57UFCNi2 March 19, 2013 Update Table 12. Summary of Vacant Residential Buildable Land Inventory and Expected Dwelling Capacity Levels Maximum Maximum Zone/Plan Vacant Allowed Allowed/ Designation Acres Density Permitted (DU/Acre) Dwellings R-0 0.0 34.0 0 R-2 2.2 28.5 63 R-2.5 0.4 28.5 11 R-3 0.5 12.9 6 R-5 4.4 8.7 38 R-6 0.6 7.3 4 R-7.5 33.0 5.8 191 R-10 18.5 4.4 81 R-15 17.7 2.9 51 Total 77.3 5.8 447 Source:City of Lake Oswego, Winterbrook Planning. As shown in Table 13, Lake Oswego's current development opportunities on vacant and part-vacant land are primarily concentrated among lower-density land use zone/plan designations. The part- vacant land inventory is estimated to accommodate 1,708 net new dwellings under current land use zone/plan designations. Table 13. Summary of Part-Vacant Residential Buildable Land Inventory and Expected Dwelling Capacity Levels Maximum Dwelling Less Maximum Zone/Plan Part Vacant Allowed Unit Cap Existing Net New Designation Acres Density (Max) Dwelling Dwellings (DUs/Acre) Units R-0 5.6 34.0 191 44 147 R-2 0 28.5 0 0 0 R-2.5 0 28.5 0 0 0 R-3 12.5 12.9 162 33 129 R-5 18.1 8.7 158 43 115 R-6 0 7.3 0 0 0 R-7.5 242.7 5.8 1,409 631 778 R-10 179.5 4.4 782 332 450 R-15 80.5 2.9 234 145 89 Total 538.9 5.5 2,936 1,228 1,708 Source: City of Lake Oswego, January 2011. Combining the number expected dwelling units on vacant land (447) and part-vacant land (1,708) results in a dwelling capacity of 2,155 units. o3/Pp 23a88 3 ARM Fill D='1/ uA a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Redevelopment Analysis In order to better understand how many new housing units may be constructed on land within the Lake Oswego USB, FCS Group and Lake Oswego Planning staff also estimated the potential number of net new units that could reasonably be expected to redevelop in medium and high-density residential and mixed-use zones. The residential redevelopment analysis focuses on medium and higher density residential zones in the USB (R-0, R-2, R-2.5, R-3, R-5) where there is capacity for additional units to be added through redevelopment. The analysis includes lots with an assessed improvement value to land value ratio of 1.5 or less and tax lots over 0.20 acres (8,712 SF) in net buildable land area, which are considered likely to redevelop by 2035. Environmental constraints were removed, and the maximum capacity calculated based on net acreage by zone. Existing dwellings were estimated based on total developed residential floor area (assuming an average of 1,250 square feet per dwelling unit) then subtracted from the potential capacity to determine the net potential for additional units. As shown in Table 14 below, the preliminary redevelopment analysis identifies the potential for up to 1,331 net new dwellings in medium and high-density residential zones. Table 14. Summary of Redevelopment Potential in Medium and High-Density Residential Zones Maximum Max. Potential Buildable Allowed Less DUs at Net New Redevelopment DUs Per Estimated Existing DU Zoning Acres Acre Existing DUs Zoning Capacity R-0 17.4 34.0 148 657 509 R-2 4.2 28.5 31 91 60 R-2.5 1.3 28.5 2 36 34 R-3 36.9 12.9 196 493 297 R-5 67.4 8.7 160 590 432 Total 127.1 537 1,867 1,331 Source:Analysis by FCS Group and City of Lake Oswego Long Range Planning staff, 2011. A redevelopment analysis also was conducted for mixed use zones that allows both residential and commercial uses (GC/R-0, NC/R-0, OC/R-3, EC, GC, HC, EC/R-0). This analysis focused on the following key districts: Foothills, Downtown, Kruse Way and the Boones Ferry Corridor. The same methodology used to remove constraints and determine vacant and part-vacant buildable land was used in the redevelopment analysis. In addition, this analysis assumes a range of building floor areas allocated toward housing, as noted in Table 15, under"Estimated Residential FAR as % of Total FAR." The residential allocation assumptions reflected here differ by zone based on City staff and consultant observations in the city and region. o3/Pp 23a88 3 ARNIVD='1/ UA ?itt9 2 March 19, 2013 Update Table 15. Summary of Redevelopment Potential in Mixed-Use Zones Estimated Estimated Maximum Net Estimated Max Estimated New Buildable FAR Max Building SF Residential Dwellings Less Estimated Redevelop- Per at Zoned FAR as%of at Zoned Existing Max Net Zoning men Acres* Zoning Capacity Total FAR Capacity** DUs 1 New DUs GC 21.3 0.30 278,218 50% 121 - 121 NC/R-0 2.3 0.25 25,047 50% 11 1 10 OC/R3 12.0 0.30 157,208 50% 68 2 66 EC 14.8 3.00 1,936,678 80% 1,347 9 1,338 HC 29.0 0.30 378,319 _ 10% 33 - 33 CR&D 0 - - - - - - EC/R-0 0 - - - - - - OC 1.6 0.30 20,386 50% 9 - 9 Total 80.9 2,795,855 1,589 12 1,577 *includes tax lots with existing land improvement value to land value ratio of 1.5 or less. **assumes 1,150 square feet average floor area per future dwelling unit. FAR=Building Floor-to-Land Area ratio. DUs=dwelling units. Source:Analysis by FCS GROUP based on City of Lake Oswego redevelopment assumptions. The findings, as shown in Table 15, result in 80.9 acres of mixed-use zoned land area that is likely to redevelop over the next 20 years. This redevelopment acreage is zoned to accommodate nearly 2.8 million square feet of building floor area, though not all of this development will be housing. An analysis of potential housing units results in up to 1,589 dwellings that could potentially be provided in these mixed-use areas under current zoning. After accounting for the existing 12 dwellings on these properties, the net new residential development potential on mixed-use redevelopment lands in the Lake Oswego USB is expected to be 1,577 dwelling units. The remaining portion of these redeveloped lands could serve non-residential development and employment/job growth. Based on the preceding analyses, the Lake Oswego USB has the potential of accommodating approximately 5,063 net new dwelling units under current zoning capacity. As indicated in Table 16, the vacant, part vacant and redevelopment lands have the potential of accommodating about 1,646 single family detached dwellings, 1,017 medium-density dwellings (townhomes, duplexes, etc.) and 2,400 multifamily dwellings (apartments and mid-rise flats) under current zoning. 03/PEO3 8 3 ARNIVD='1/ U3D ,'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Table 16. Summary of Net New Residential Dwelling Unit Capacity in Lake Oswego USB Medium Higher Low Density Density Density Land Classification Dwellings 5 Dwellings 6 Dwellings7 Total Dwellings Vacant Land in "R Zones" 1 329 44 74 447 Part Vacant Land in "R Zones" 2 1,317 244 147 1,708 Redevelopment Land in Medium & High Density"R Zones" 3 - 729 602 1,331 Redevelopment Land in "Mixed-Use Zones" 4 - - 1,577 1,577 Total 1,646 1,017 2,400 5,063 Notes: 1 derived from Table 14. 2 derived from Table 15. 3 derived from Table16. a reflects land zoned R-6, R-7.5, R-10, and R-15. 5reflects land zoned R-3, and R-5. 6reflects land zoned R-0, R-2, and R-2.5;and the mixed-use zones(GC, NC/RO, OC/R-3, EC, HC, CR&D, EC/RO and OC). Source:Analysis by FCS GROUP based on City of Lake Oswego redevelopment assumptions. HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS Housing Requirements Housing Mix Requirement According to state Metropolitan Housing Rule requirements (OAR 660-007-0000) , Lake Oswego "must provide the opportunity for at least 50 percent of new residential units to be attached single family housing or multiple family housing or justify an alternative percentage based on changing circumstances." Lake Oswego meets this requirement by allowing zero lot line (attached single family) dwellings in all residential zones. Population Forecast Through the Periodic Review process, Lake Oswego must have a forecast that is coordinated with Metro. Based on the expected development capacity levels described earlier, Lake Oswego could potentially provide up to 5,063 dwelling units without changes to existing zone/plan standards. This capacity exceeds the total demand anticipated by the forecast. Housing Density Requirements The MHR also requires Lake Oswego to provide for needed housing at an overall residential density of 10 or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. Lake Oswego's approach to meeting this rule is discussed on page 31. o3/Pp 23a883 ARNIVD='1/ EE3T a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Housing Attainability Requirements The MHR requires cities in the Metro region to meet the needs of the "area" or region (not city) residents at "all income levels". For Lake Oswego, the area being considered is Clackamas County. Table 17 below summarizes regional income ranges by very low, low, lower middle, upper middle and high income ranges, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Table 17. Income Levels and Distribution in 2010 Qualifying Income 1 Region 2 Lake Oswego 3 Lower- Upper- Percent Percent Income Cohort end end Households Dist. Households Dist. High (120%or more of Median Income) $87,600 or more 303,230 35% 8,222 54% Upper Middle (80% to 120%of Median Income) $58,400 $87,600 170,460 20% 2,511 16% Lower Middle (50% to 80%of Median Income) $36,500 $58,400 124,204 14% 1,684 11% Low (30%to 50%of Median Income) $21,900 $36,500 167,890 20% 2,052 13% Very Low(less than 30%of Median Income) or less $21,900 91,654 11% 857 6% 857,439 100% 15,326 100% Notes: 1. Consistent with current regional HUD income limits for Urban Clackamas County, shown in Appendix A. 2. Region includes Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties, Oregon. Derived from American Community Survey, 2008-2010. 3. Reflects data for Lake Oswego city;derived from American Community Survey, 2006-2010. The income levels and distribution in Table 17 have been translated into a range of housing prices, unit types and allocation for future dwellings. To reflect the demographic trend of an aging population and shrinking household size, along with the desire to attract more young households, the allocations in Table 18 have been adjusted slightly in favor of additional allocation toward the upper and lower middle income range. o3/Pp 231188n3 AnN WAWA IIF'1362 March 19, 2013 Update Table 18. Home T pes and Price Points to Meet Attainabilit Goals* Owner-Occupied Housing Net New DU Allocation to Attainable Housing Address Approximate Attainable Home Price* Low Range High Range Product** Attainability SFD or other high end High (120%or more of Median Income) $434,000 or more type(ie.,condos) 35% SFD or other mid- value type(ie., Upper Middle (80% to 120%of Median Income) $289,000 $434,000 townhomes) 20% Small-lot"cottage" SFD,SFA, apt. &gov. Lower Middle (50% to 80%of Median Income) $181,000 $289,000 assisted housing 14% Duplex/Triplex/ Quad plexes&gov. Low (30%to 50%of Median Income) $109,000 $181,000 assisted housing 20% Condos/Plexes&gov. Very Low(less than 30%of Median Income) or less $109,000 assisted 11% 100% *Assumes 30%of income is used for mortgage payment, 20%downpayment, 6%interest, 30-year mortgage. **consistent with regional HUD income limits shown in Appendix A. Renter-Occupied Housing Net New DU Allocation to Attainable Housing Address Approximate Attainable Monthly Rents* Low Range High Range Product Attainability Any housing type, High (120%or more of Median Income) $2,190 or more higher price 35% Any housing type, Upper Middle (80% to 120%of Median Income) $1,460 $2,190 lower price 20% Small-lot"cottage" SFD,SFA, apt. &gov. Lower Middle (50% to 80%of Median Income) $913 $1,460 assisted housing 14% Apartments, plexes& Low (30%to 50%of Median Income) $548 $913 gov.assisted housing 20% Apartments, plexes& Very Low(less than 30%of Median Income) or less $548 gov.assisted housing 11% 100% o3/Pp 23a883 ARNIT1D='1/ u33 a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update *Assumes 30%of income is used for rental payments. **consistent with regional HUD income limits shown in Appendix A. In light of the most current findings regarding demographics, housing tenure, and recent housing additions, it appears that the market for housing in Lake Oswego is appropriate at a 60:40 owner/renter ratio of housing inventory, rather than a 64.5:35.5 ratio that was determined previously in the May 2011 draft report. We would also expect the planned mix of multifamily to rise to about 40% of all new dwellings (up from 22.9% assumed previously), and the planned increase in other housing types to fall. Table 19. Pro'ected Residential Housin• Need Mix, Lake Oswe•o USB, 2010 to 2035 Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All Dwelling IP , - I , - Housing Tenure Distribution: 60.0% 40.0% 100% Housing Unit/Type Distribution Detached Large Lot SF (>5,000 sq.ft. lot size) 34% 4% 22.0% Detached Small Lot SF "cottages" (<+5,000 sq.ft. lot size) 18% 5% 12.8% Attached SF (Rowhouses, Secondary Dus, 30% 8% 21.2% Zero Lot Line DUs) Duplex/Triplex 10% 11% 10.4% Multifamily(Apartments, Condos) 8% 72% 33.6% Total 100% 100% 100% COMPARISON OF RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY AND PROJECTED DEMAND Future Needed Housing Types and Land Based on the preceding analysis, the Lake Oswego USB can accommodate approximately 5,574 net new dwelling units under current zoning capacity assumptions. There may also be additional dwelling unit opportunities that could be provided through new secondary dwelling units (SDUs), which are currently allowed but conservatively excluded from these capacity forecasts. As indicated in Table 20, after applying the housing attainability assumptions (shown in Table 18) to the low and medium growth forecasts, it appears that the city can accommodate the low growth forecast for all housing and zone types, but would need to adopt some new policies to fully accommodate the expected medium housing density need associated with the medium growth forecast. Specifically, the analysis indicates that under the medium forecast, there is an additional need to accommodate approximately 349 medium density (townhouse, duplex, SDU, etc.) dwelling units, which would require approximately 48 acres. This need could mainly be addressed by redevelopment in appropriate locations within the existing USB area. The City may also want to explore if some or all o3/Pp 23a883 ARNIVD='1/ u34 a'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update of the medium density need could technically be met through the high density supply, under the assumption that high-density housing can be provided at price levels at or below medium-density price levels. The projected housing deficit for medium density housing could be addressed through a combination of local land use policy measures discussed in the Implementation section. 03/PEO3t8H3 AUMIfiE liTAU35 &'13G2 March 19, 2013 Update Table 20. Residential Dwelling Capacity and Projected Housing Demand, Lake Oswego USB, 2010 to 2035 Dwelling Unit Capacity and Demand Potential Land Need in by Potential Net Buildable Land Area in Acres Forecast�st Year 2035 1� NewT Dwelllings Needed to Redeye Meet Pop. Potential Potential opment: Potential Forecast& Dwelling Likely Residential Redevel- Mixed- Dwelling Attain- Unit Residential Land Part opment: Use Unit abiltiy Surplus by Land Need Surplus or Land Use Vacant Vacant R Zones Zones Total Capacity Levels 2035 by 2035 (Deficit) by Classifications (acres) (acres) (acres) (acres) Acres (dwellings) (dwellings) (dwellings) (acres) 2035 (acres) Low Density (primarily large lot SFD in R-7.5, 69.2 502.7 - - 571.9 1,646 783 863 272.1 299.8 R-10, R-15 zones) Medium Density (primarily small 5.5 30.6 104.3 - 140.4 1,017 456 561 62.9 77.5 lot SFD in R-3, R-5 zones) High Density (primarily MF in RO, R-2, R-2.5, 2.6 5.6 22.8 80.9 111.9 2,400 2,321 79 108.2 3.7 GC, NC/RO, OC/R3, EC, HC, CR&D, EC/RO, OC zones) Total 77.3 538.9 127.1 80.9 824.2 5,063 3,560 1,503 443.3 380.9 03/19/13 Exhibit 4/Page 31 PL333 0n3 ARM VD='1TA I 61F%gi2 March 19, 2013 Update SUMMARY AND POLICY OPTIONS Considering the supply of vacant, part-vacant, and redevelopable land, Lake Oswego appears to have a surplus of buildable low-density and high-density land, but a deficit of medium density land to serve middle income levels and meet the State's housing attainability requirement. This need may be met in part or whole through the redevelopment capacity for high-density housing. The City will need to consider if this would provide the desired mix of housing options and meet the community vision. Appendix C lists potential strategies and potential density levels associated with potential new development within the Lake Oswego USB for consideration during housing implementation discussions. Although the City appears to meet its MHR requirements for attached/detached mix, needed housing types and locations, the City will need to review its code and make updates as needed to ensure that all needed housing types can be developed under clear and objective standards. In other words, policies and regulations should not prohibit or discourage the provision of affordable and needed housing. In addition, the City may want to consider new policies and incentives specifically aimed at providing opportunities for senior residents to age in place, and for young people and families to find a home in Lake Oswego. By the conclusion of Periodic Review in April 2013, the Lake Oswego City Council will need to adopt a single population projection and update these strategies if and as needed. IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES The following set of policy options have been developed in response to state requirements and local aspirations. These considerations and recommendations have been compiled from previous housing strategies as well as conversations with the Comprehensive Plan Citizen Advisory Committee, Goal 9 and 10 Work Group and Planning Commission. The policy options are intended to create a menu of options for the City and its advisory groups to consider as they work to update the Comprehensive Plan based on the findings that have been identified through this HNA process. Demographic Trends The demographic analysis suggests that people are remaining in or moving to Lake Oswego to retire and indicates a need to plan for housing oriented toward older age groups that typically demand smaller units with lower property maintenance requirements. The location of senior-oriented housing options in relation to senior needs and community amenities will also be an important part of this policy discussion. Discussions with the Citizen Advisory Committee and the community as a whole have indicated a specific desire to attract more young families with children, which are vital to the city and schools. The demographic and housing trends and conditions suggest that higher housing costs in Lake Oswego compared with neighboring jurisdictions may be a barrier for young families. In order to provide a diversity of housing types and densities, the City may want to consider providing additional opportunities for housing types more affordable for these families. 03/19/13 Exhibit 4/Page 32 PEO3t8 3 A-TMifiD= T pCt 96 2 March 19, 2013 Update Vacant Land Supply/Redevelopment Lake Oswego has a relatively limited supply of vacant land area inside the USB, and now must rely on redevelopment and optimization of the remaining vacant land inventory to meet future needs and be consistent with MHR requirements. Possible Strategy Continue to emphasize policies that encourage or support redevelopment at designated areas (such as mixed-use and neighborhood centers); and policies and code that support new secondary dwelling units; single family attached housing; and multifamily housing, especially in designated centers. Metropolitan Housing Rule Housing Mix. Lake Oswego is required to meet the State's MHR requirements for housing mix (opportunity for 50/50 mix of attached and detached housing) and average density on buildable land (see page 7). Lake Oswego has a limited amount of vacant land and needs to develop strategies to meet future housing needs and MHR requirements in a way that fits within the city's unique character. Lake Oswego's residential zones allow for attached "zero lot line" housing and meets this requirement. Clear and Objective Standards. The MHR also requires the City to provide an opportunity for all needed housing to be developed under clear and objective development standards. "Needed housing" includes all single family, multifamily, attached and detached housing; this requirement is not exclusive to the "buildable" portion of the city. Multifamily and single family housing with three or more attached units in Lake Oswego currently goes through a design review process with the Design Review Commission and is reviewed against a set of building design standards. The City received a Periodic Review grant from DLCD to update its development code to ensure the opportunity for these housing types to be developed under clear and objectives standards. The City plans to adopt revised standards within the timeframe of Periodic Review to comply with this provision of the Metropolitan Housing Rule. Minimum Density. To help maintain the Metro Urban Growth Boundary and efficient land use patterns, the MHR requires cities within the Metro UBG to provide minimum average zoned density levels. Lake Oswego must provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. The city was assigned this density category because it is one of the "larger urbanized jurisdictions with regionally coordinated population projections of 50,000 or more for their active planning areas, which encompass or are near major employment centers, and which are situated along regional transportation corridors." Lake Oswego has demonstrated compliance with this rule at each Periodic Review since the city's original acknowledgement of its1978 Comprehensive Plan. In 1994, DLCD acknowledged Lake Oswego's average density at 10.2 dwelling units/acre. The City may demonstrate compliance with this rule using one of two buildable land inventory approaches as outlined in OAR 660-007-0045 (2). Consistent with the City's last acknowledgement, Lake Oswego plans to demonstrate its average density "based on the jurisdiction BLI at the time of acknowledgment as updated." Lake Oswego's preliminary analysis shows that zone/plan changes since acknowledgement have not had the effect of decreasing zoned density below 10 dwelling units/net buildable acre. 03/19//133 .ppp Exhibit 4/Page 33 p,��E pF$ PL33-p8 3 A-XNM�D='IT U% 6 2 March 19, 2013 Update Other Complete Neighborhood and Housing Strategies for Consideration Other strategies for consideration: o Strategically explore re-designation in select locations near centers with transportation options and other amenities to focus new development and redevelopment in the best areas for Lake Oswego while maintaining the integrity of single family neighborhoods. o Amend development standards in appropriate areas targeted for mixed-use development to remove barriers to mixed-use housing and employment uses. Amendments could include adjustments to allowable heights and densities, reduction of parking requirements, allowances for meeting landscaping requirements, permitting greater floor lot coverage to make structured parking more feasible, and/or removing or limiting subjective buffering standards. o Consider the following strategies to meet the need for lower income housing attainability: • Establish a minimum percentage of affordable units in all developments that receive assistance from the Lake Oswego Redevelopment Agency. • Work toward a goal of"no net loss" of existing affordable housing through incentives and other means. • Improve the permitting process to allow for needed housing types including secondary dwelling units while respecting neighborhoods. • Avoid "one size fits all" approaches for different geographic areas in Lake Oswego. 03/19/13 .ppp Exhibit 4/Page 34 p,��E pF$ PLlT3 p 3 A�XNIVD='ITAIE39 $ 5 2 March 19, 2013 Update APPENDIX A. HOUSING ATTAINABILITY ANALYSIS FOR LAKE OSWEGO USB Urban Clackamas County Median Family Income Level (2012)* $73,000 Market Segment by Income Level Lower-end Upper-End High (120%or more of MFI) 120% Upper Middle (80% to 120%of MFI) 80% 120% Lower Middle (50% to 80%of MFI) 50% 80% Low(30%to 50%) 30% 50% Very Low (less than 30%of MFI) 30% Qualifying Income Level Lower-end Upper-End High (120%or more of MFI) $87,600 or more Upper Middle (80% to 120%of MFI) $58,400 $87,600 Lower Middle (50% to 80%of MFI) $36,500 $58,400 Low(30%to 50%) $21,900 $36,500 Very Low(less than 30%of MFI) $21,900 or less Available Annual Housing Payment(@30%of income level) Lower-end Upper-End High (120%or more of MFI) $26,280 or more Upper Middle (80% to 120%of MFI) $17,520 $26,280 Lower Middle (50% to 80%of MFI) $10,950 $17,520 Low(30%to 50%) $6,570 $10,950 Very Low(less than 30%of MFI) $6,570 or less 1111, Available Monthly Rent or Payment (@30%of income level) Lower-end Upper-End High (120%or more of MEI) $2,190 or more Upper Middle (80% to 120%of MFI) $1,460 $2,190 Lower Middle (50% to 80%of MFI) $913 $1,460 Low(30%to 50%) $548 $913 Very Low(less than 30%of MFI) $548 or less Approximate Attainable Home Price** Lower-end Upper-End High (120%or more of MEI) $434,000 or more Upper Middle (80% to 120%of MFI) $289,000 $434,000 Lower Middle (50% to 80%of MFI) $181,000 $289,000 Low(30%to 50%) $109,000 $181,000 Very Low(less than 30%of MFI) $109,000 or less Notes: *based on Housing and Urban Development thresholds for Clackamas County in 2012. Note, this analysis is generally consistent with 4-person household size characteristics. **assumes 20%down payment on 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.0%interest. Source:analysis by FCS Group using Housing and Urban Development, and US Census data. 03/19/pp1322 A�ppop iT,EExhibit 4/Page 35 p,� E p $ PEAT-8 3 AEXHlY'D=yIT U% & 6 2 March 19, 2013 Update APPENDIX B. FEDERAL POVERTY THRESHOLDS BY FAMILY SIZE, URBAN CLACKAMAS COUNTY, CURRENT YEAR DOLLAR AMOUNTS (NOT INFLATION ADJUSTED) • ,_ . 2012—Income Limits for LIHTC 8.Tax-Exempt Bonds ZpiAt Clackamas County.OregonIra For mere detailed WISP income limit information,please via t HUDs wehsite: C�/�' http:i..,,vw r.h u duser.orglparta Vde to s etstmtsp.htrn I Actual 2012 Median $73,000 Nfnl Non-Metro 201290eo'ian $52,409 (applies to9%creariis orgy innon-me2oareas) 202 HERA Special Median $73,400 (applies to projects in existence be5ore January 1,2009) Mediae incomes cakulfed based on a 4per-ran household What Income Limit Should You Use? Is the I OCati on considered RURAL by USDA?oyes,t is el'pi bee to use the Me Non-Metro Median for 9%projects). Not All Clackamas County is considered urban with in it's major cities.to verify your address and accuracy,please Visit: jrrlo XeloibiBn.at copy usde c avle lioib illvlwelco m eRction do?oageAc lion=sfo&NavKev-orooertv1912 —The following income limits indicate the highest income limit allowable-- Did the project eXf5t`in 2008? If NO,did it exist: If NO,did it exist:: —if it's a 4%Tax Credit Project Between Jan 1,2008-Nov 30th,2011 After Dec let 2011 Use:HERA Special2012 --It it's a 4%Tax Credit Project --If it's a 4%Tax Credit Project —?fits a 9%Tax Credit Project Use'Actua)Irrcnrr>es 2012 Use Actual Incomes 2012 Use.:HERA Special 2012 --If it's a 9%Tax Credit Project —If it's a 9%Tax Credit Project Use:Actual incomes 2012 Use:Actual fnoomes 2092 Actual Income Limits 2012 %MFI 1 Pers 2 Pars 3 Pers 4 Pers 5 Pars 8 Pers 7 Pers 8 Pers 30% 515,330 517,520 $19,710 $21,900 523.670 $25,410 527,180 $28,920 35% 917,885 520,440 $22,995 $25,560 527,615 $20,645 S31,710 $33,740 40% 620.440 523360 626:280 $29.200 531.560 $33.880 536.240 638:560 45% 622.995 526.230 $29.585 532.850 535.505 538.115 540.770 $43.380 50% $25,550 $29,200 $32,950 $36,500 $39,450 $42,350 $45,300 $48,200 55% $28.105 532.120 $36.135 540.150 543.395 $46.686 549.830 $53,020 60% $30,660 536.040 $39,420 $43,800 547.340 $50,820 554.360 $57,840 80% 648,880 546.720 552.580 $58,400 563.120 $67,760 572.480 $77,120 HERA Special Income Limits 2012 %MFI 1 Pars 2 Pers 3 Pers 4 Pers 5 Pers 6 Pars 7 Pers 8 Pers 30% 545,420 517.640 $19,830 $22,020 523,790 $25,560 527,330 529,070 35% 617.990 520:580 $23,135 $25.690 527,755 629.820 531:885 $33,916 40% 620,560 523.520 $26,440 $29,360 531,720 $34,080 536.440 $38.760 45% $21,130 526.460 $29,745 $33,030 535.685 $38,340 540.095 $43.605 50% $25,700 $29,400 $33,050 $36,700 $39,850 $42,600 $45,550 $48,450 .55% $28.270 532.340 $36,355 $40.370 543.615 $46.860 550.105 $53,295 60% 530,840 535,280 $39,660 $44,040 547,580 $51,120 554,660 658,140 80:5 $41.120 547,040 $52,880 $58,720 $63,440 568,160 672,880 $77,520 Ntnl Non-Metro Income Limits 2012 96 MFI 1 Pers 2 Pers 3 Pars 4 Pers 5 Pers 6 Pers 7 Pere 8 Pere 30% $11.010 512,570 $14,160 $15,720 516,980 $18,240 S19,500 $20,760 35% 512.845 514.665 616.520 518.340 519.810 621,280 522.750 $24.220 40% $14,680 516,760 $18,860 $20,960 522,640 $24,320 526,000 $27,680 45% 815.515 $18,855 $21,240 $23.680 $26,470 $27,360 $29,250 $31,140 50% St0,350 $20,950 $23,000 $26,200 $28,300 $30,400 $32,500 $34,600 55% $20,185 523,04,5 $25,960 $26,820 531,130 $33,440 535.750 $38,060 80% $22,020 525,14,0 $28,320 $31,440 533,960 536,480 539,000 $41,520 80'34, $29.360 533:520 637:760 $41.920 545:280 $48.640 552.000 655,360 Notes: 1:Projects win previous'Rural'designalians toll are no longer considered le be located n rural areas(by the USDA)ere permihed to use the prevnus year's National Nen-Metro income'mils should they be higher then the currerri years income lints. The National Non-Melro income!Mils are ovine here: hits flwvnv.ohcs.oreg On.gov43HCS+HPM income fin is-thtm I 2'Exist-defined by WC as the projects placed-in-service(PIS)date.Projects censi sling of reuhple b uikrigs,where each butding a bens treated as pert of a multRle building project(see vine Bb on IRS Form BB09),will be considered as being 5n axial ence"prvvned et lease one butding was PIS during the erected year. The nco mer 11m is Wad above are bend on the Multifamily Tax Subsidy Program(MTSP)in core a emits published by HUD on December 1.2011.Per Revenue Ruing 04-57,owners wit have unli January 15,20121e Implement lhas a new MTSP income.links{45 days from(hat'affective date).Please note/hat all deflnhens and erplo nelions herein may be subject Io change upon rater IRS a n dfor HUD clrifca hon. OHCS,1 2/1 212 0 1 1 03/19/pp1322 A�ppop iT,EExhibit 4/Page 36 p,� E p $ PLlT 308 3 AEXH �btliTA J c 6'1 62 March 19, 2013 Update APPENDIX C. OPTIONS FOR PROVIDING NEW DWELLINGS WITHIN LAKE OSWEGO USB Estimated Potential Acres in Dwelling Avg. USB (net Potential Density buildable) (net new (DU/acre) 1. Vacant and Part Vacant Land Inventory a. Low Density 571.9 1,640 2.9 b. Medium Density 36.1 292 8.1 c. Higher Density 8.2 221 30.0 2. Redevelopment: Net New Dwellings on Medium & High Density R-Zones (R-0, R-2, R-2.5, R-3, R-5) 127 1,331 10.5 3. Redevelopment: Net New Dwellings on Mixed-Use Zones (GC/R-0, NC/R-0, OC/R-3, EC, GC, HC, EC/R-0) I 80.9 1,577 19.5 4. Redevelopment: Increase housing in Boones Ferry Corridor (various strategies may be used) n/a n/a n/a 5 Specific Plan and Zone Change for Foothills Industrial Area n/a 1,735 n/a 6. New Goals and Standards for SDUs n/a n/a n/a Source: Compiled by City of Lake Oswego Long Range Planning Department, and FCS Group, April 29, 2011. 03/19/pp1322 A�ppop iT,EExhibit 4/Page 37 p,� E p $ PEAT-8 3 A LAW'D=yIT E•t% OF 6 2 EXHIBIT 5 ORDINANCE 2640 City of Lake Oswego Draft Economic Opportunities Analysis May 26, 2011 Updated March 18, 2013 Ci O f LAKE OswEGo OREGON 03//1882/1.�3ppop iT,� Exhibit N5/Pagep1,� p $ PEAT-8 3 A RITID=yITA�E & 6 2 March 2013 Update 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 2 PEAT-8 3 ARMY'EAT/F4M5% &pp1 2 March 2013 Update Acknowledgements The City appreciates grant funds received from the State of Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)for technical consultant assistance to complete this document. We thank the following citizens for their dedicated work on this topic. Comprehensive Plan Citizen Advisory Committee: Councilor Sally Moncrieff, Chair Katie Abbott Dorothy Atwood Tom Brennan Christopher Clee Doug Cushing Tom Fahey Bill Gaar Nancy Gronowski Liz Hartman Jim Johnson Tim Mather Bob Needham Teri Oelrich David White Goal 9 & 10 Work Group: Tom Brennan Doug Cushing Julia Glisson Jon Gustafson Liz Hartman Councilor Sally Moncrieff Dan Vizzini Planning Commission: John Gustafson, Chair Lynne Paretchan, Vice Chair Puja Bhutani Julia Glisson Jim Johnson Russell Jones Todd Prager Jeff Gudman, Council Liaison City Staff: Dennis Egner, AICP, Assistant Planning Director Sidaro Sin, LEED AP, Senior Planner Sarah Selden, Associate Planner Laura Weigel, AICP, LEED AP, Associate Planner Jane Blackstone, Economic Development Manager Debra Andreades, AICP, Senior Planner Consultants: Kirstin Green, AICP, Principal Cogan Owens Cogan Steve Faust, AICP, Senior Planner, Cogan Owens Cogan Todd Chase, AICP, LEED AP, FCS Group 03//1882/1.�3ppp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep3,� c�pF$ PEO3 0� 3 A-XNM�D='1T U OF'1362 March 2013 Update TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 5 Introduction 10 Requirements 10 Methodology 11 Vision and Goals (Local Aspirations) 12 Economic Conditions, Trends and Forecasts 13 Demographic Trends 13 Income 18 Availability of Workforce 19 Commuting Patterns 20 Changes in Employment 20 Lake Oswego's Competitive Advantages and Challenges 23 Potential Growth Industries in Lake Oswego 26 Target Industries 27 Inventory of Suitable Sites (Land Supply) 29 Redevelopment Potential 30 Site Suitability Analysis (Land Demand) 31 Assessment of Employment Land Needs 34 Short-Term Land Supply and Need Determination 34 Implementation 36 Vacant Land Supply/Redevelopment 36 Commitment to Provide a Short-Term Land Supply 36 Commitment to Provide Adequate Sites and Facilities 36 Other Considerations 37 Appendix A. Assumptions for Vacant Land Needs Forecast 38 Appendix B. Redevelopment Allocations and Land Needs by Forecast 40 Appendix C. Vacant Building Absorption Assumptions 42 Appendix D. Stakeholder Interview Summary 43 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 4 PEAT-8 3 AiTeRIF V/AU iF%6$2 March 2013 Update EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Lake Oswego is conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) as required by its Periodic Review work program to update Goal 9 (Economic Development) of its Comprehensive Plan. The City received grant funds from the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) for technical consultant assistance to complete this task. The City elected to take advantage of this required plan update to create a long-range vision for the City. Part of this vision addresses economic development over the next 20 years. 2013 Update This EOA was originally drafted in 2011 to inform the update of Comprehensive Plan goals and policies. As noted in the Site Suitability (Land Demand) section of this document (page 30), at that time, Metro was in the process of coordinating with local jurisdictions to develop updates to its regional employment and housing forecasts through 2045. The most recent adopted Metro forecast at that time was from 2005. This forecast, along with preliminary forecast numbers contained within the 2009 Regional Growth Report guided the development of four employment growth scenarios for Lake Oswego in the 2011 Draft EOA. In the fall of 2012, Metro completed its updated employment and housing forecast for 2035. Metro's updated forecasts incorporate local input to make the forecast more consistent with the work conducted as part of the City's 2011 draft Economic Opportunities Analysis. The Metro numbers are slightly higher than the City's Medium-High Employment Forecast described in Table 12 of this report. The differences are not significant enough to be of concern for planning purposes; the Metro numbers are slightly higher than the City's numbers partially because the Lake Oswego boundaries used by Metro' are slightly larger than the City's USB. Updated City and Metro forecasts are shown in the table below. The Lake Oswego City Council was presented with these forecasts in September 2012, and on October 9, 2012 accepted the housing and employment forecasts listed below, which were presented in the October 9, 2012 Council Report. The Metro Council adopted this forecast on November 29, 2012. Comparison of 2010 to 2035 City Forecasts with the Metro Adopted TAZ Forecasts for the Current Lake Oswego USB Forecast 2010 Total 2035 Total 2010-2035 Change City Forecast- Households 19,166 22,726 3,560 Metro Forecast- Households 19,556 23,299 3,743 City Forecast- Employment 20,538 25,398 4,860 Metro Forecast- 21,804 27,095 5,291 Employment While a range of four employment forecast options is described throughout this report, the Medium-High employment forecast should be considered the correct forecast for the Metro's forecast numbers are developed for Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ)within the metro area, with certain TAZ assigned to each jurisdiction. The TAZ do not align perfectly with jurisdictional lines, for example one TAZ assigned to Lake Oswego includes a portion of Tualatin's commercial area near I-5. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep5,� E pF$ PP 23-�0� 3 ARM EATA�E 7 '136 2 March 2013 Update purpose of employment land planning. Additional updates were made to this report to reflect more recent demographic information available from the 2010 Census. Vision and Goals (Local Aspirations) The strategies in this report are designed to help City leaders improve economic vitality for Lake Oswego, as described in the draft Lake Oswego Community Vision for 2035: We are a community where people can live, work, play and meet their daily needs for goods and services. We build upon the intellectual capital of the community to attract new ventures, retain local businesses and connect to the global economy. We are business-friendly and a regional model for employment and mixed-use centers that attract quality jobs. The City also developed a set of Community Economic Development Objectives (CEDOs) that are intended to help guide the development of the EOA and move the community towards implementation of its vision for Economic Vitality. Draft Community Economic Development Objectives: • Maintain and grow a strong local employment base to provide jobs for Lake Oswego residents and support a high quality of life. • Support and grow existing and locally-owned businesses. • Support business incubation and employment growth within the city by providing a diversity of space/site opportunities. • Provide flexibility in employment zones that supports economic resilience and sustainability while minimizing negative impacts. • Focus redevelopment and intensification of jobs (e.g., jobs per acre) in employment corridors and centers. • Provide opportunities for a range of industrial and employment uses. Actively pursue environmentally responsible businesses. • Pursue a range of employment opportunities, such as an emphasis on creative class opportunities and clusters that build on Lake Oswego's intellectual capital, proximity to universities and colleges and connection to the I-5 corridor. These could include but would not necessarily be limited to science, engineering, education, computer programming, research, arts, media and design. • Explore long term redevelopment opportunities in the southwest industrial area, along Bangy Road, along the Kruse Way corridor, and in Foothills. • Create the opportunity for employment well served by transportation options. • Maintain Lake Oswego's exceptional quality of life by investing in infrastructure and services that support residents and businesses. Demographic Trends The City's most current population estimate for the Lake Oswego Urban Services Boundary is approximately 43,000 people and 19,166 dwelling units. By 2035, the population within the Lake Oswego urban services boundary is expected to be between 47,000 to 51,000 people. According to U.S. Census estimates, the median age of Lake Oswego residents increased from 41.2 years in 2000 to 42.1 years of age in 2006/2008. This is more than five years older than the median age of residents within the Portland Vancouver Metropolitan Statistical Area (36.7). As older Baby Boomers tend to desire to remain in their current residence or community as long as possible, the population over age 75 is expected to increase measurably over the coming decades, while the 24-55 cohort is projected to shrink. If trends continue, the younger population cohorts (age 5-14) are likely to remain flat or experience negative growth. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep6,� E c pF$ PLlT3 0� 3 A�XNIVD='1T U% OF'1362 March 2013 Update Economic Conditions, Trends and Forecasts Lake Oswego is located in the desirable "inner-urban area" within the greater Portland region. This location is considered advantageous for accessing downtown Portland and its surrounding communities within a manageable commute. Downtown Lake Oswego's ongoing renaissance and excellent parks, schools and community facilities continue to serve as attributes that make it a desirable place to live, work and visit. The Kruse Way Corridor from 1-5 to Boones Ferry Road is another significant economic engine for Lake Oswego, with over 2,700 on-site jobs, an annual direct payroll of$243 million, and an annual regional economic output of$1.4 billion. Lake Oswego had 18,871 jobs at 2,297 places of work in 2009. The average wage per employee was about $52,700. The sectors with the most employment and above average wages were Finance and Insurance, and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. This data also indicates that between 9% and 12% of Lake Oswego's workforce is located on land that is not designated for employment uses, figures that are consistent with the City's business license database which shows that 9% of Lake Oswego businesses are home-based. An analysis of how Lake Oswego fits into the Clackamas County economy based on job concentration by employment sector indicates the City of Lake Oswego has different economic strengths than the rest of Clackamas County. What defines Lake Oswego is its high concentration of wages in the Finance, Insurance, and Professional Consulting Services sectors compared to the County as a whole. The most pertinent employment trends for Lake Oswego over the next 20-years are: growth in financial firms, growing importance of health care, and growth in other services that require high quality office space. Target Industries Based on current employment trends, the City's competitive advantages, and City land-use and economic development policies, types of businesses that may be attracted to Lake Oswego include: • Finance and Insurance • Professional, Scientific, Technical Services and Information • Real Estate • Corporate or Regional Headquarters • Green Businesses • Health Care • Services for Residents • Services for Seniors • Government and Public Services • Advanced Continuing Education • Arts Assessment of Employment Land Needs A range of employment land need forecasts were prepared for consideration in this report. A description of the forecasts can be found on page 30 in the land demand analysis. While four potential forecasts (low, medium, medium-high and high growth) have been considered in this report, feedback from the City's advisory groups and Metro indicate that the high forecast likely represents a higher level of job growth than is currently expected or feasible for Lake Oswego over the next 20 years. Lake Oswego is in the process of coordinating with Metro on job forecasts and will narrow the range to a single forecast prior to the completion of Periodic Review. 03//188/1.3po iT,� Exhibit N5/Pagep7,� E c� p $ PEAT-88 3 A RITID=yIT U% O* 6 2 March 2013 Update The table on page 4 summarizes Lake Oswego's land supply and demand for each employment growth forecast. The Economic Opportunities Analysis requirements focus on an assessment of vacant employment land, however due to Lake Oswego's limited supply of vacant employment land, this report also assesses the potential to add jobs through redevelopment and through filling vacant office space. The results in the table below show that with the exception of Institutional demand in the medium-high employment forecast, Lake Oswego's supply of vacant and redevelopable land along with vacant office space, could provide the capacity for over 4,000 new jobs under the medium job growth forecast. The limited vacant land supply can most easily accommodate the low growth forecast without more focused economic strategies to support job growth. While commercial and mixed-use land demand can only be met by vacant land in the low scenario, the redevelopable land supply provides sufficient capacity to meet commercial/mixed-use demand in all but the high growth forecast. For institutional uses, the vacant land supply can accommodate the low and medium demand forecasts, while an additional 2.1 to 14.1 acres of land would be needed for the medium-high and high forecasts. For industrial uses, the low to flat demand in all but the high scenario, combined with over 30 acres of redevelopment potential in the southwest Industrial Park zone, results in a surplus of industrial land for the low, medium and medium-high employment forecasts. Employment Vacant Land Needs and Vacant Land Supply, Lake Oswego USB, 2010 to 2035 (gross buildable acres) Vacant&Redevelopment Potential Land Acreage Medium Med-High High Low Growth Growth Growth Growth Scenario Commercial&Mixed-Use Scenario Scenario Scenario Land Supply-Vacant 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 Land Supply-Redevelopment 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.7 Land Supply Subtotal 119.0 119.0 119.0 119.0 Vacant Land Demand 10.0 20.0 40.0 95.0 Redevelopment Land 8.7 21.8 49.4 91.7 Land Demand Subtotal 18.7 41.8 89.4 186.7 Overall Land Surplus/ 100.3 77.2 29.6 (67.7) Institutional Land Supply-Vacant 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Land Supply-Redevelopment n/a n/a n/a n/a Land Supply Subtotal 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Vacant Land Demand 1.0 1.0 9.0 21.0 Redevelopment Land 0.5 1.0 16.7 37.6 Land Demand Subtotal 1.5 2.0 25.7 58.6 Overall Land Surplus/ 5.4 4.9 (18.8) (51.7) Industrial Land Supply-Vacant 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Land Supply-Redevelopment 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 Land Supply Subtotal 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 Vacant Land Demand 1.0 2.0 - 24.0 Redevelopment Land - - - 46.4 Land Demand Subtotal 1.0 2.0 - 70.4 Overall Land Surplus/ 37.5 36.5 38.5 (31.9) 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 8 PEO3a9 3 A-XStrEAT U p6 2 March 2013 Update Note:Redevelopment assumptions assume portion of job growth is addressed though building refill/vacancy absorption as noted in Appendix C. Conclusion Lake Oswego has a limited 20-acre supply of vacant land area inside the USB, seven acres of which are located on the Marylhurst/Mary's Woods campus. The redevelopment analysis, however, demonstrates a large capacity for redevelopment in commercial and mixed use zones that could accommodate 1,600 net new jobs. In addition, the redevelopment analysis shows the potential for a significant amount of redevelopment in the City's southwest Industrial Park zone. The assessment of vacant office space also indicates the capacity for 1,500 additional jobs without additional land needs. In order to realize Lake Oswego's employment land redevelopment potential, the City will need to develop and implement strategies to encourage employment redevelopment in strategic locations. As the City begins to update the Economic goals and policies in its Comprehensive Plan, it should look at strategies to encourage redevelopment and optimization of the remaining vacant land inventory that implement the draft Community Economic Development Objectives and move the city toward its vision for Economic Vitality in 2035. 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 9 PEO3 p 3 AETA DNT U cO pF 2 March 2013 Update INTRODUCTION The City of Lake Oswego is conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) as required by its Periodic Review work program to update Goal 9 (Economic Development) of its Comprehensive Plan. The City received grant funds from the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) for technical consultant assistance to complete this task. The City elected to take advantage of this required plan update to create a long-range vision for the City. Part of this vision addresses economic development over the next 20 years. The focus of Goal 9 is "to provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare and prosperity of Oregon's citizens." Goal 9 describes an EOA report as "an analysis of the community's economic patterns, potentialities, strengths, and deficiencies as they relate to state and national trends" and states that a principal determinant in planning for employment should be the competitive advantage of the region within which the developments would be located. The assessment of economic development potential in Lake Oswego is therefore presented in this analysis along with preliminary policies and strategies that would help the City provide economic development opportunities consistent with state requirements and its community aspirations. The implementation section identifies policies and strategies for meeting the economic development needs of existing and future Lake Oswego residents. These will merit further discussion and analysis in the implementation phase 2011-2012. Requirements This EOA describes how the City has and will comply with state and local requirements related to economic development. Specifically, as part of its Comprehensive Plan update, the City must address the requirements of Goal 9 (OAR 660-009) and the Metro Functional Plan Title 4 (Industrial and Other Employment Areas). Planning in the State of Oregon is governed by 19 Goals that express the State's aspirations on land use planning and related topics, including economic development. Each goal includes guidelines for local jurisdictions' comprehensive plans. The substantive content of an EOA is governed by Oregon Administrative Rule, 660-009-0015 which implements Goal 9: Economic Development. This rule requires inclusion of the following three interrelated elements inventory (supply), need, and policies as shown in Figure 1. Metro's Urban Growth Management Functional Plan Title 4 of Metro's Urban Growth Management Functional Plan is intended to provide and protect a supply of sites for industrial uses and to cluster those industries so they may operate more productively. Title 4 also seeks to provide for the efficient movement of goods and services and to encourage the location of other types of employment in Centers, Employment Areas, Corridors, Main Streets and Station Communities. Title 4 requires that jurisdictions adopt land use regulations that: • Derive specific plan designations and zoning district boundaries of industrial areas in an Employment and Industrial Areas Map. • Limit the size of new buildings for retail commercial uses and retail and professional services to ensure that they serve primarily the needs of workers in the area. Title 6 of the Functional Plan addresses Centers, Corridors, Station Communities and Main Streets in the regional 2040 Growth Concept. It recognizes these areas as "the principal centers of urban life in the region". It defines the elements (boundary, assessment, policies and action strategies) needed for regional growth including federal investments. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep100� pF$ PP 23-8 3 AUXNl�D='1T UC6 ?F 6J 2 March 2013 Update Figure 1. Lake Oswego Economic Opportunities Analysis Methodology PartA Part 61.111.1r Part C Employment Land Employment Land Local Economic Inventory Need Development Policies -Step 2A:Analyze -Step 1:Inventory Economic Trends -Step 3:Articulate Employment Land Economic OAR 6601009-0015(1) Development Objectives step 2B:Assess i OAR 660-09- -Step 1A:Identify Comparative * 0020(1)(a) Vacant Buildable i Advantages Employment Land OAR 660-009-0015(4) - OAR 660-009- 0015(3) -Step 2C:Forecast Employment Growth -Step 1B:Qescribel OAR fi60 009 0015{1] Characteristics of Buildable Sites -Step 2D:Identify OAR 660-009- Required Sties 0025(3)(a) j OAR 660-009-0015(2) -Step 4:Estimate -Step 1C:Identify Land Need Based on Short-term Land Site Needs Supply OAR 660-009-0025 OAR 660-009- 0025(3)(a)(C) 116.71) -Step 6:Adopt Economic Development Policies OAR 660-09-0020(1) EMIStP ine Employment Land -Step 7:Designate fficiencyLands for Industrial D D9 OD25(2] and Commercial Uses OAR 660-09-0025 FCS G RO UP Methodology The technical and political approach used for the EOA and related steps are consistent with the DLCD Goal 9 administrative rule, and the supporting OAR 660 guidance, as well as other supporting guidance provided per the DLCD Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook (2005), and the Updated Draft Economic Development and Employment Land Planning Guidebook (July 2010). 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep111� c pF$ PEO3 0� 3 AEXN ATI VITA i OF 5 2 March 2013 Update VISION AND GOALS (LOCAL ASPIRATIONS) While this report complies with state rules and regulations, more importantly, it provides a vision for how the City of Lake Oswego, within a land use context, will plan for and provide economic opportunities for its citizens from 2010 to 2035. The strategies in this report are designed to help City leaders improve economic vitality for Lake Oswego, as described in the draft Lake Oswego Community Vision for 2035: We are a community where people can live, work, play and meet their daily needs for goods and services. We build upon the intellectual capital of the community to attract new ventures, retain local businesses and connect to the global economy. We are business-friendly and a regional model for employment and mixed-use centers that attract quality jobs. To this end, the City of Lake Oswego developed a set of Community Economic Development Objectives (CEDOs) that are intended to help guide the development of the EOA and move the community towards implementation of its vision for Economic Vitality. Some community objectives may, in the Implementation Phase rise to the level of a goal or policy and be formally incorporated into the updated Comprehensive Plan. Others may be more appropriately refined to become strategies for implementation. The objectives were developed based on the City's existing Comprehensive Plan, the Economic Development Strategy, other local market analyses and were reviewed and updated by the Goal 9 & 10 Work Group, the Citizen Advisory Committee and the Planning Commission. Draft Community Economic Development Objectives: • Maintain and grow a strong local employment base to provide jobs for Lake Oswego residents and support a high quality of life. • Support and grow existing and locally-owned businesses. • Support business incubation and employment growth within the city by providing a diversity of space/site opportunities. • Provide flexibility in employment zones that supports economic resilience and sustainability while minimizing negative impacts. • Focus redevelopment and intensification of jobs (e.g., jobs per acre) in employment corridors and centers. • Provide opportunities for a range of industrial and employment uses. Actively pursue environmentally responsible businesses. • Pursue a range of employment opportunities, such as an emphasis on creative class opportunities and clusters that build on Lake Oswego's intellectual capital, proximity to universities and colleges and connection to the I-5 corridor. These could include but would not necessarily be limited to science, engineering, education, computer programming, research, arts, media and design. • Explore long term redevelopment opportunities in the southwest industrial area, along Bangy Road, along the Kruse Way corridor, and in Foothills. • Create the opportunity for employment well served by transportation options. • Maintain Lake Oswego's exceptional quality of life by investing in infrastructure and services that support residents and businesses. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep122� c pF$ PLlT3 0� 3 A�XN VD='1T U OF'1362 March 2013 Update ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, TRENDS AND FORECASTS Lake Oswego exists as part of the larger economy of the Portland metropolitan area and is strongly influenced by regional economic conditions. For many factors, such as workforce, Lake Oswego does not differ significantly from the broader region. For other factors, such as income, it does. Thus, Lake Oswego benefits from being a part of the larger regional economy and plays a specific role in the regional economy. Demographic Trends Lake Oswego is located in the very desirable "inner-urban area" within the greater Portland region. This location is considered advantageous for accessing downtown Portland and its surrounding communities within a manageable commute. Downtown Lake Oswego's ongoing renaissance and excellent parks, schools and community facilities continue to serve as attributes that make it a desirable place to live, work and visit. As Figure 2 indicates, the U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 census count estimated there to be approximately 36,619 people in the City of Lake Oswego,2 which is an increase of 1,341 people since the 2000 U.S. Census. 3 For comparison purposes, Figure 3 shows population estimates prepared by Portland State University that indicate a population of 36,845 within the Lake Oswego city limits as of July 1, 2010. Figure 2. Lake Oswego Historic Population Trends, 1920-2010 City of Lake Oswego Population Trends, 1920- 2010 (source: U.S. Census) 40,000 36,619 35,000 35,278 30,000 30,570 25,000 22,527 20,000 14,573 15,000 10,000 8,906 3,316 5,000 1,818 1 1,285 1,727 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source:U.S. Census;compiled by FCS Group. 2 The Census area is slightly larger than the city limits, but smaller than the urban services boundary (USB). Limited Census 2010 information was available at the conclusion of the grant period. Where information was available, it was included. 03//188/1.3p Exhibit N5/Page133 PEAT-88 3 EXH D=yIT UCA ap 6$2 March 2013 Update Figure 3. Lake Oswego Recent Population Trends, 1990-2011 City of Lake Oswego Population Trends, 1990 - 2011 (source:PSU) 40,000 15.000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 — 5,000 — 0 — — 1990 1991 1992 1993 1991 1995 1995 1997 ' 1991 i999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20011 2005 2006 2007 200E 2009 2010 12011 , !City Pop.911,7.M:11,9A!31,4Y11 il,94',:if,41! iJ,H4i,33,381 a,H/1,34,.i!I.12,S84l1 ,4[$).1'',,S(,S 3',,/33 3S,$4i1 3',4111 dU.[Yi, TU Li!.ilh:il'a:iii,.'fft)30.1.'i.'e 3G,tS4.',I3G,1.15 Source:Portland State University, Population Research Center;compiled by FCS Group. Lake Oswego experienced a net gain of approximately 898 1,097 households since year 2000, with an increase of 472 414 family households and 426 710 nonfamily households, which represents an increase in the share of nonfamily households when compared to the 2006-08 Census data. Another notable shift as indicated in Table 1 on the following page, is the decrease in average household size from 2000-2010, which indicates a recent trend when compared to the increase in household size that occurred between 2000 and 2006-8. As indicated in Table 1, according to the U.S. Census, the average household size and average family size in Lake Oswego increased over the 2000 to 2008 time period. The average household size was 2.48 and the average family size was 3.10 people per household according to the U.S. Census, 2006-2008 American Community Survey. More recent 2010 estimates by City of Lake Oswego Long Range Planning staff for the Lake Oswego USB indicate a relatively lower ratio of population to total dwelling units. Using GIS data, City staff estimates that there were 43,09 people and 19,166 dwelling units in the Lake Oswego Urban Service Boundary (USB) in 2010; with a ratio of people per dwelling unit of 2.25. The fact that this ratio is lower than the average household size estimate reported by the U.S. Census is to be expected, since the U.S. Census tallies only occupied dwelling units and population that resides in households (not group quarters) population. 03//1882/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep14� pF$ PL33-08 3 ARM EAT U b ' 5 2 March 2013 Update Table 1. Lake Oswego Demographic and Socio-economic Trends Census 2000 Census 2010 Chan: Population 35,237 36,619 1,382 Group Quarters Population 163 222 59 Households 14,796 15,893 1,097 Family Households 9,665 10,079 414 Nonfamily Households 5,104 5,814 710 Average Household Size 2.38 2.29 (0.09) Average Family Size 2.95 2.88 (0.07) Median Age 41.2 45.8 4.6 Census 2000 ACS 2008-10 Median Household Income (unadjusted) $71,597 $81,097 $9,500 Median Family Income (unadjusted) $94,587 $105,722 $11,135 Per Capita Income (unadjusted) $42,166 $47,704 $5,538 Median Household Income (inflation adjusted)* $98,883 $86,977 ($11,906) Median Family Income (inflation adjusted)* $130,634 $113,387 ($17,247) Per Capita Income (inflation adjusted)* $58,235 $51,163 ($7,073) *Income data were adjusted to current June 2012 dollars by FCS Group based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation calculator. Source: U.S. Census, 2000 and 2010 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey, data compiled by FCS Group Prepared by FCS GROUP. According to U.S. Census estimates, the median age of Lake Oswego residents also increased from 41.2 years in 2000 to 45.8 years of age in 2010. This is more than nine years older than the median age of residents within the Portland Vancouver MSA region (36.7). In fact, Lake Oswego has more residents over age 65 than all other cities in the greater Portland region, with the exception of King City. A closer look at population age cohort patterns for Lake Oswego reflects the aging Baby Boom population (born between 1946 and 1965). As indicated in Figure 4 and Table 2, population cohorts that experienced the most significant increase include Baby Boomers within the 55-64 and 65-74 age ranges. These Baby Boomers (age 55 to 74) recorded a combined gain of 4,315 people since 2000. 03//188/1.3p iT, Exhibit N5/Page155 PEAT-88 3 A RYID=yIT UM ap 6$2 March 2013 Update Figure 4. Population Age Cohort Trends, Lake Oswego, 2000 and circa 2010 Population Pyramid for Lake Population Pyramid for Lake Oswego,2000 Oswego,2010 %of lulu/pop.;%ourre:[1__S.Ceriso. %of total pop.;source.:U.S.Census Age 75+ 21 s,1 female Age 25 + 9,g 65 to 74 2.5 1.4 %' 65 to 74 4_o�:I 4.5 female 55 to 64 s.2. s 3 55 to 64 t3.1 NA, 45 to 54 .)=s it),/ 45 to 54 x_1 9..fr.I. 25 to 44 12,4 14.3 25 to 44 io.n i 20 to 24 e.0 ..: 20 to 24 ,_Li ,o 15 to 19 3.7 3.2 15 to 19 s.4 J.2 10 to 14 a.? .3.7 10 to 14 3.9 5 to 9 3__, 5 to 9 3.0 21 Age s- 2.5 2,4 Age s- ?..1 ,n Table 2. Lake Oswe•o Area Po•ulation A•e Cohort Trends Percent Age Cohort (years) Census 2000 Census 2010 Change Change under 5 1,746 1,489 (257) -15% 5 to 9 2,426 2,129 (297) -12% 10 to 14 2,810 2,694 (116) -4% 15 to 19 2,424 2,439 15 1% 20 to 24 1,470 1,403 (67) -5% 25 to 44 9,441 7,697 (1,744) -18% 45 to 54 7,267 - 6,548 (719) -10% 55 to 64 3,676 6,302 2,626 71% 65 to 74 1,477 3,166 1,689 114% 75+ 2,541 2,752 211 8% Total 35,278 36,619 1,341 4% Source:U.S. Census, 2000 and 2010. Lake Oswego area is slightly larger than city limits but smaller than the Urban Service Boundary. As summarized in Figure 4 and Table 2 above, since 2000 there have been significant increases in the 55-64 and 65-74 age cohorts, with increases of 70% and 113% respectively. The only other increase occurred among the 15-19 age cohort with a minor 15 person gain. The 20-54 age cohorts experienced the most significant population decline, followed by the birth-age 14 cohort. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep166� pF$ PP 23-8 3 AR �D='1T ucA by 6 2 March 2013 Update As older Baby Boomers tend to desire to remain in their current residence or community as long as possible, the population over age 75 is expected to increase measurably over the coming decades. However, the younger population cohorts (age 5-14) are likely to remain flat or experience negative growth. Table 3. Lake Oswe•o Area Annual Historic Population Growth Rates 10-Year Trend Long-Term Trend 2000 to 2010 1990 to 2010 Il Number AAGR% Number AAGR% Total Population 134 0.4% 302 0.9% Male 33 0.2% 133 0.8% Female 101 0.5% 169 1.0% Age Cohort (years) under 5 (26) -1.6% t14) -0.9% 5 to 9 (30) -1.3% 5 0.2% 10 to 14 (12) -0.4% 26 1.1% 15 to 19 2 0.1% 26 1.2% 20 to 24 (7) -0.5% 2 0.2% 25 to 44 (174) -2.0% (159) -1.7% 45 to 54 (72) -1.0% 101 1.9% 55 to 64 263 5.5% 188 4.7% 65 to 74 169 7.9% 58 2.3% 75+ 21 0.8% 69 3.6% Source: US Census. AAGR = average annual growth rate. Prepared by FCS GROUP. 03//188/1.3po iiTT,,�� Exhibit NN5/Pagepp177�� p $ PEAT-88 3 A RI ill s=�IT EE as 2 March 2013 Update Income Table 4 indicates that Lake Oswego continues to retain and attract upper-income households. The portion of all households with annual income levels of more than $100,000 increased slightly from 35% to 38% from 2000 to 2008-10. While the portion of households earning below $75,000 fell slightly, this income level (just above the 2012 Median Family Income for Clackamas County) still represents 47% of all Lake Oswego Households. Table 4. Households b Income Level, Lake Oswe•o, 2000 and 2006-2008 Income Cohort Census 2000 ACS 2008-2010 Change Number Dist. % Number Dist. % Number Percent less than $14,999 861 5.8% 770 4.9% (91) -0.9% $15,000 to $34,999 2,338 15.8% 1,951 12.5% (387) -3.3% $35,000 to $74,999 4,472 30.2% 4,615 29.5% _ 143 -0.7% $75,000 to $99,999 1,931 13.0% 2,359 15.1% 428 2.1% $100,000 to $149,999 2,550 17.2% 2,361 15.1% (189) -2.1% $150,000 to $199,999 1,090 7.4% 1,602 10.2% 512 2.8% $200,000 or more 1,582 10.7% 1,989 12.7% 407 2.0% Total 14,824 100% 15,647 100% 823 -0.1% Source:2000 U.S. Census data income levels expressed in 1999 dollars, and 2008-2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey, income levels expressed in 2009 dollars. Prepared by FCS GROUP. According to the U.S. Census 2008-2010 American Community Survey, Lake Oswego's average per capita income was $47,704, median household income was $86,977, and median family income was $113,387 in 2012 dollar amounts. While average income levels in Lake Oswego have increased in nominal dollars, inflation adjusted income levels have fallen since 2000. This trend towards lower real income levels has been well-documented in the Portland region and nationally, and is primarily attributed to the shrinking income levels in middle-income households and higher costs of living for items such as housing, transportation, food, energy and health care. Poverty levels in Lake Oswego are relatively low in the region, however according to the U.S. Census 2006-2008 American Community Survey, Lake Oswego still has an estimated 2,602 people in poverty 4. 4 Federal Poverty Level is defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development(HUD) as 70% of median income in a given year. 03//1882/1.�3ppp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep188��E pF$ PL33- 0� 3 AUXNl�D='1TA�E-6D , S 6 2 March 2013 Update Availability of Workforce The availability of trained workers in Lake Oswego will impact development of Lake Oswego's economy over the planning period. Key trends that will affect the workforce in Lake Oswego through 2035 include growing population, demographic factors (e.g., aging of the population; income), availability of educated and skilled workers, and regional commuting patterns. Lake Oswego has access to workers in the Portland metropolitan region workforce and is likely to continue to be able to draw workers from the regional workforce in the future. Educational attainment The availability of trained, educated workers affects the quality of the workforce in a community. Educational attainment is an important workforce factor because firms need to be able to find educated workers. In addition, educational attainment is correlated with income. The fastest growing occupations in the U.S. require an academic degree and, on average, have higher incomes than occupations that do not require an academic degree.5 Figure 5 shows educational attainment in Oregon, Clackamas County, and Lake Oswego in 2007. In 2007, Lake Oswego had a higher share of residents above the age of 25 with a bachelor's degree or higher (64%) than residents of Clackamas County (32%) or Oregon (28%). Access to Lake Oswego's workforce may be attractive to businesses that need highly educated and skilled workers, such as Corporate Headquarters or Professional and Scientific Services. Figure 5. Educational attainment for the population 25 years and over, Oregon, Clackamas County and Lake Oswego, 2007 Graduate or professional degree Bachelor's degree Associate degree E - `� Some college, I no degree High school graduate I (includes equivalency) w 9th to 12th grade, no diploma Less than 9th grade 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent of Population Age 25+ ■Oregon ❑Clackamas County ❑Lake Oswego Source:2007 American Community Survey;prepared by ECONorthwest. 5 Arlene Dohm and Lyn Shniper,"Occupational Employment Projections to 2016,"Monthly Labor Review,November 2007, pp.86- 125. 03//188/1.3ppp T,� Exhibit N5/Paggep199��E pF$ PLlT3 p 3 ARM EATt,AIE�T a 6 2 March 2013 Update Commuting Patterns Commuting plays an important role in Lake Oswego's economy. Lake Oswego residents have a slightly shorter commute than most residents of Clackamas County or the Portland metropolitan region. About 70% of Lake Oswego's residents commute 29 minutes or less, compared to 60% of Clackamas County residents and 65% of residents in the Portland metropolitan region. About 2% of Lake Oswego's residents had a commute of 60 minutes or more, compared to 6% of residents of Clackamas County and the Portland metropolitan region.6 Lake Oswego's residents commuted across the Portland metropolitan region in 2006,7 with about 90% of workers working in Multnomah County, Clackamas County, and Washington County. About 37% of Lake Oswego's residents worked in the City of Portland, 14% in Lake Oswego, and 5% or more in Beaverton, Tigard, and Tualatin.8 Lake Oswego's workforce commuted from across the Portland metropolitan region in 2006, with about 85% of workers coming from Multnomah County, Clackamas County, and Washington County. About 22% of Lake Oswego's workforce lived in the City of Portland, 14% in Lake Oswego, and 5% or more from Beaverton or Tigard.9 This means that Lake Oswego's companies have access to workers from across the Portland metropolitan area but especially from the City north to Portland and from Beaverton east to I- 205. These commuting patterns create demand for automotive and other forms of transportation, both within Lake Oswego and on roads throughout the Portland metropolitan area. Changes in Employment The global economy is evolving. Nationally, this is reflected in changes observed during the 1980's to the current period. These changes affected the composition of Oregon's economy, including the Portland metropolitan area and Lake Oswego. The most important shift during this period at the national-level was the shift in employment from a focus on manufacturing to services. The most important shift in Oregon has been the shift from a timber-based economy to a more diverse economy, with the greatest employment in services. The most important trends and changes in employment for Lake Oswego over the next 20-years are: growth in financial firms, growing importance of health care, and growth in other services that require high quality office space (e.g., professional and technical services). Lake Oswego had 21,044 jobs at 2,272 establishments in 20061°, with an average firm size of 9.3 employees." The average wage per employee was about $49,400. The sectors with the most employment and above average wages were Finance and Insurance ($65,335 average wage) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services ($73,100). Other sectors with at least 5% of the City's employment and above average wages were: Wholesale Trade ($86,400), Construction ($58,000), and Manufacturing ($54,700). The sectors with the greatest number of 6 2007 American Community Survey. The most current data on commuting patterns is for 2006.This data is available from U.S.Census Bureau: LED on the Map. 8 U.S. Census Bureau: Longitudinal Employer-Housing Dynamics mapping tool. 9 U.S. Census Bureau: Longitudinal Employer-Housing Dynamics mapping tool. 10 This study uses 2006 QCEW data to be consistent with the base employment data used by Metro in the recent work on the Urban Growth Report 2009-2030. 11 The number of employees per firm is calculated based on the covered data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce(QCEW).Other data sources give different firm size. For example,Table A-11 presents employment data from Lake Oswego's business license database,which shows an overall firm size of 6.1 employees per firm and 9.1 employees per firm, excluding home occupations.The best available data about firm size is from the QCEW data because businesses with employees covered by unemployment insurance are required by the Federal Government to report all employment on a monthly basis. 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 20 PP23pp 3 ARIVDNTAUC6 ?F p6 J 2 March 2013 Update employees were: Finance and Insurance (17%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (12%), Government (11%), Accommodation and Food Services (9%), Health Care and Social Assistance (8%), and Retail (7%). These sectors accounted for 13,245 or 63% of Lake Oswego's jobs. The sectors with the most employment and below average wages were Accommodation and Food Services ($16,300), Retail ($24,100), Government ($34,100), and Health Care and Social Assistance ($36,000). Other sectors with at least 5°/0 of the City's employment and below average wages were: Other Services ($27,200),12 and Administrative Support and Waste Management ($30,500). A substantial amount of Lake Oswego's employment is located on land that is not designated for employment. • Home occupations. Table 6 shows home occupations, which account for about 9% of employment in the City's License Database. Home occupations tend to have a lower average firm size, 1.5 employees per firm, compared to 9.1 employees per firm for non- home occupations operating in Lake Oswego.13 The most common types of home occupations are general construction, interior design, design, consultants, and mortgage brokers. Table 6. Licensed businesses in Lake Oswego, 2009 Firms Employees Percent Percent Avg. Number of total Number of total Emp/Firm Businesses operating within Lake Oswego 1,373 61% 12,532 91% 9.1 Home Occupations 887 39% 1,294 9% 1.5 Total 2,260 100% 13,826 100% 6.1 Source: City of Lake Oswego Business License Database;prepared by ECONorthwest. • Employment located on non-employment plan designations. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data in Table 7 includes employment that is located in non-employment plan designations, mostly residential plan designations. This employment includes home occupations (e.g., home offices or construction contractors working out of their home), as well as businesses located in non-employment plan designations (e.g., or assisted living facilities). 12 Other Services includes services such as repair and maintenance,dry cleaning services,personal care services(e.g.,barber shops or nail salons),and organizations. 13 This estimate of the number of employees per firm is based on employment data from Lake Oswego's business license database. The best available data about firm size is from the QCEW data because businesses with employees covered by unemployment insurance are required by the Federal Government to report all employment on a monthly basis.The purpose of presenting the data about firm size in this paragraph is to illustrate that home occupations have fewer employees than the City's average firm size. 13 This estimate of population is based on the housing and population forecast in the 2009 Housing Needs Analysis conducted by Winterbrook Planning. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep211��E pF$ PP 23-�0� 3 ARM�D='1T IE-63 a 6 2 March 2013 Update Table 7. Em•to ment in Lake Oswe•o's urban services bounda , 2009 Avg.Pay Employment Sector Firms Jobs %of Emp. Per Job Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing&Hunting 3 17 0% $20,271 Utilites 3 10 0% $46,504 Construction 162 686 4% $54,995 Manufacturing 10 191 1% $31,175 Wood Product Manufacturing 13 226 1% $43,018 Primary Metal Manufacturing 25 468 2% $77,453 Wholesale Trade 265 1,115 6% $91,833 Retail Trade 96 1,216 6% $24,689 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book,and Music Stores 51 158 1% $20,844 Transportation and Warehousing 12 126 1% $32,818 Postal Service 6 75 0% $57,373 Information 40 537 3% $106,415 Finance and Insurance 290 2,549 14% $78,665 Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 130 436 2% $45,251 Professional,Scientific and Technical Services 407 2,538 13% $74,203 Management of Companies and Enterprises 24 335 2% $81,397 Admin.,Waste Mgmt.and Remediation Services 100 838 4% $34,892 Educational Services 55 1,862 10% $36,550 Health Care and Social Assistance 191 1,709 9% $38,217 Arts, Recreation and Entertainment 25 330 2% $18,404 Accommodation and Food Services 1 118 1,659 9% $17,596 Other Services 246 798 4% $29,324 Public Administration/Government 4 988 5% $45,633 All Other 21 12 0% $56,410 Total 2,297 18,879 100% $52,685 Source: Oregon Employment Department Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW). Summary by industry and percentages calculated by FCS GROUP. Note: Only employment in "covered"jobs that include workman's comprehensive insurance payments are reflected in Table 7. Analysis of the QCEW data shows that about 2,450 employees are located in non-employment plan designations, accounting for 12% of Lake Oswego's employment. The most common types of employment located on non-employment plan designations are: Health Care and Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; Construction; and Other Services. It is likely that there is overlap in the employment reported from these data sources. The QCEW data probably includes some home occupations, such as contractors working from home or telecommuters that work for firms not located in Lake Oswego. The information in this analysis suggests that between 9% and 12% of Lake Oswego's workforce is located on land that is not designated for employment uses. 03//188/1.3ppp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep222��E pF$ PEO3a98 3 AR �D='1T uct% a'1362 March 2013 Update Lake Oswego's Competitive Advantages and Challenges Economic development opportunities in Lake Oswego will be affected by local conditions in addition to national and state economic conditions. Economic conditions in Lake Oswego relative to other portions of the Portland metropolitan area form Lake Oswego's competitive advantage for economic development. Lake Oswego's competitive advantages have implications for the types of firms most likely to locate and expand in Lake Oswego. Lake Oswego's primary competitive advantages are quality of life, prestige, market buying power, location, and access to highly educated and skilled labor. These factors make Lake Oswego attractive to residents and businesses that want a high quality of life where they live and work. A recent analysis by FCS GROUP revealed that Lake Oswego, and particularly the Kruse Way Corridor, is a major economic engine within Clackamas County. 14As shown in the figure below, the Lake Oswego Boones Ferry Road Corridor is one of the leading clusters of employment activity within Clackamas County (map depicts level of relative annual economic output per 10- acre grid that occurred in 2008). In 2008, the businesses within the Kruse Way Corridor (the 81 net acre area extending along Kruse Way from 1-5 to Boones Ferry Road) included 199 separate businesses with a total covered workforce of 2,747 direct jobs (on site) and generated an annual direct payroll of$243 million, and annual direct/indirect regional economic output of $1.4 billion. While, total employment within the Kruse Way Corridor has declined since 2008 in the aftermath of the recent economic recession, this area continues to provide significant employment and economic output within the greater Portland region. _` ypsyr .`�i'#,-ram- ;-r _ . .r ' .r y " .• '1 r • .' .' . Ar %=$ :fit.fr. ■ T .- . .., -". 14 Clackamas County Economic Landscape, Economic Profiles, 2010; report for Clackamas County by FCS GROUP, Cogan Owens Cogan, and Real Urban Geographics. 03//1882/1.�3pppp T,� Exhibit N5/Paggep233��E pF$ PL33T-B 3 A�XNIVD='1Tt,AIE�5 a'1362 March 2013 Update The local factors that form Lake Oswego's competitive advantage are summarized below. • Quality of life. Lake Oswego's high quality of life and significant amenities are a primary competitive advantage for attracting businesses to the City. Lake Oswego's quality of life attributes include: high-quality housing, urban amenities (restaurants and shopping opportunities), Oswego Lake and lake front properties, parks and open space, proximity to Portland, beautiful setting, and access to urban and outdoor recreation. Lake Oswego's high quality of life is likely to attract businesses and entrepreneurs that want to locate in a high amenity area. • Prestige. Office space in Lake Oswego, especially along Kruse Way, is considered a prestigious location. Businesses that want to locate in a prestigious, high amenity area are likely to be attracted to Lake Oswego. • Buying power of markets. The buying power of Lake Oswego's households provides a strong market for goods and services. According to estimates on household spending by Oregon Prospector,15 households in Lake Oswego spent over$1.2 billion in 2008, about 18% of total household expenditures in Clackamas County. Lake Oswego households spend an average of$78,900 on commonly purchased items. Expenditures by households in Lake Oswego were 135% of the County average ($58,443 per household). The buying power of households in Lake Oswego is a competitive advantage for attracting retail and services. • Location. Lake Oswego is located in the Portland metropolitan area, immediately south of the City of Portland and near the intersection of I-5 and 1-205. Lake Oswego is located near Tigard, Tualatin and West Linn. Lake Oswego is located in the northwestern part of Clackamas County, near Multnomah and Washington counties. Lake Oswego's location affects economic development in the City because: the city is located in the most populous part of Oregon; residents have access to easy shopping in and around the city; residents have access to cultural and urban amenities in Lake Oswego and adjacent cities; and businesses in Lake Oswego have access to transportation and business infrastructure in the Portland metropolitan area. • Transportation. Businesses and residents in Lake Oswego have access to a variety of modes of transportation: automobile (1-5, 1-205, Highway 43, Highway 217, and local roads); transit (Tri-Met buses, possible future bus rapid transit or Portland Streetcar extension); and air (Portland International Airport). Businesses that need relatively easy automobile access to 1-5 and other major roads in the region may be attracted to Lake Oswego. • Labor market. The availability of labor is critical for economic development. Availability of labor depends not only on the number of workers available, but the quality, skills, and experience of available workers as well. Commuting is common in Lake Oswego. The commuting patterns show that businesses in Lake Oswego are able to attract skilled and unskilled workers from across the Portland metropolitan region. Businesses that need access to workers from across the Portland metropolitan region and that want a pool of local highly educated and skilled workers may be attracted to Lake Oswego. • Public policy. Public policy can impact the amount and type of economic growth in a community. The City can impact economic growth through its policies about the provision of land, redevelopment, and infill development. Success at attracting or retaining firms may depend on availability of attractive sites for development and public support for redevelopment. Although firms may be attracted to Lake Oswego because of 15 Oregon Prospector is the State of Oregon's economic development website. It has city profiles,which include information about expenditures by residents of the city.The website can be accessed at: http://www.oregonprospector.com/. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep24��E pF$ PP 23-8 3 A�XN V D='1TAIE-6E biFS 5 2 March 2013 Update the City's competitive advantages, the choice to locate in Lake Oswego may be based, in large part, on public assistance with redevelopment (e.g., parcel assembly) because of the challenges associated with redevelopment. • Business taxes. Multnomah County levies a 1.45% business income tax. Clackamas and Washington Counties do not have a business income tax, which gives cities in these counties an advantage for attracting businesses over cities in Multnomah County. Lake Oswego's proximity to Multnomah County presents an opportunity to attract firms that want to locate near Multnomah County. Lake Oswego also has a number of real or perceived challenges for economic development, relative to the Portland metropolitan region. Interviews with stakeholders identified the following barriers to economic development in Lake Oswego. • Land. The availability of land in Lake Oswego was the most commonly mentioned challenge to economic development. The challenges included: availability of vacant land, availability of sites over a few acres, and cost of land. The lack of light industrial land with highway access or flex space is a concern because the City has so little industrial land. • Infill and redevelopment. Infill and redevelopment, especially of sites larger than an acre, is difficult. This is especially true in Downtown, where parcel assembly of sites is very difficult because of the highly fragmented pattern of ownership. In addition, the City's policies make it challenging to change existing uses through rezoning. • Parking. High land costs make providing parking costly, especially for structured or underground parking. The need for parking, both because of the lack of transportation alternatives and City policies, is cited by the stakeholders as a challenge to increasing densities in areas with office buildings. In addition, it is perceived that a lack of parking in Downtown makes retail uses more challenging, especially for small retailers that cannot afford to build parking structures. This seems to be more perception than reality based on a 2010 Downtown Parking Study. • Providing infrastructure. The cost of providing new infrastructure to increase intensity of uses and funding maintenance of existing infrastructure are also cited by stakeholders as a challenge to economic development. • Downtown. The distance from Downtown to 1-5 and the capacity of Highway 43 and local roads are cited as a challenge to development in Downtown, with observations that the distance from 1-5 will prevent Downtown from providing regional retail or services. In addition, increasing densities in Downtown substantially may create capacity issues on the street system, especially if people come from outside of Lake Oswego for retail and services. • Affordable housing. The lack of affordable housing, especially workforce housing, is seen as a challenge to businesses with lower paid employees. These employees generally cannot afford to live in Lake Oswego and must commute from other communities. • Community attitudes. Community attitudes are viewed as a challenge to development, especially development near established neighborhoods. In addition, community concerns about development often make the development process (from concept to receiving development approval from the City) slower. • City government. The complexity and speed of the planning process were cited in stakeholder interviews as a challenge to economic development. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep255��E pF$ PP 23-�0� 3 ARM EATA�E-67 J'136 2 March 2013 Update Potential Growth Industries in Lake Oswego The types of jobs and target industries Lake Oswego is focusing on have the following attributes: high-wage, stable jobs with benefits; jobs requiring skilled and unskilled labor; employers in a range of industries that will contribute to a diverse and sustainable economy; and industries that are compatible with Lake Oswego's community values. Regional and Local Business Clusters Overall, Clackamas County's clusters can be organized into five broad categories: Manufacturing; Warehousing & Transportation; Wholesale Trade; and Finance, Insurance, and Professional Services. Combined, the direct economic impacts of the 10 clusters account for roughly 39.8% of the Clackamas County economy. When secondary impacts, such as those realized by up- and downstream cluster suppliers are considered, the 10 clusters account for about 65% of the county economy. An analysis of how Lake Oswego fits into the Clackamas County economy based on job concentration by employment sector defined the region as nine counties from Salem to Vancouver.16 Location quotients (LQ) were calculated using value added of an industry as the best measure of economic importance.17 Related industry sectors are grouped into clusters and ranked according to size and LQ using value added. Key clusters are described in terms of size and other economic characteristics. The summaries were constructed using 2006 IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANing software) data, supplemented by QCEW data. The analysis identified ten "key clusters" in Clackamas County. Each of these clusters met two basic criteria: (1) highest value added location quotients in Clackamas County relative to the nine county CMSA; and (2) a contribution of at least 0.25% to the County's total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (as measured by value added). Table 8 provides the results of this analysis. Table 8. Clackamas County key industry clusters, with selection criteria, 2006 (dollar figures in millions of$) Value Added cyo Cluster Name LQ Direct % . Total County Region County Region 1. Warehousing 2.58 $ 102.3 0.8% 0.1% $ 149.7 1.2% 0.1 2. Fabricated Metal Manufacturing 2.36 345.7 2.7% 0.3% 602.7 4.7% 0.6% 3. Nurseries and Greenhouses 2.10 197.6 1.5% 0.2% 273.6 2.1% 0.3% 4. Primary Metal Manufacturing 1.65 188.2 1.5% 0.2% 325.8 2.5% 0.3% 5. Truck Transport 1.62 235.9 1.8% 0.2% 433.0 3.3% 0.4% 6. Wood Product Manufacturing 1.43 134.8 1.0% 0.1% 255.8 2.0% 0.2% 7. Professional Consulting Services 1.41 677.8 5.2% 0.6% 1,168.4 9.0% 1.1% 8. Finance and Insurance 1.27 1,680.4 13.0% 1.6% 2,637.8 20.4% 2.5% 9. Wholesale Trade 1.22 1,453.4 11.2% 1.4% 2,283.9 17.7% 2.2% 10. Machinery Manufacturing 1.17 131.6 1.0% 0.1% 276.1 2.1% 0.3% Clusters Total N/A $ 5,147.7 39.8% 4.9% $ 8,406.8 65.0% 8.0% Source:ECONorthwest, using 2006 IMPLAN data. Note: "Region"is the nine-county Portland CMSA region as defined earlier;the Finance and Insurance cluster excludes banks. 16 This region is defined by the U.S.Census as the Portland Consolidated Metropolitan Service Area(CMSA).This area includes Clackamas,Columbia,Marion, Multnomah,Polk,Washington,and Yamhill counties in Oregon;and Clark County and Skamania County in Washington. 17 It is more typical for cluster studies to use employment as the basis for comparison. But the highest employment does not necessarily produce the highest value added.While the measures are highly correlated,value added is a theoretically preferable measure of an industry's or cluster's impact on the economy. 03//188/1.3pp T,� ExhibiittN5/Pagep266��E pF$ PEO3 08 3 A�XM EATAIE-68 6 2 March 2013 Update Location quotients for industry sectors (defined by 2-digit North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes) were calculated for Lake Oswego compared to Clackamas County, using data on wages for covered employees for 2006. Because of the different methodologies used, these results are not directly comparable to the clusters identified for the County. However, this analysis does shed some light on the relationships between the Lake Oswego and Clackamas County economies. Four industries in Lake Oswego had more than double the employment concentration than Clackamas County, indicating possible employment clusters. Those sectors were Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. These sectors roughly correlate to two of the key industry clusters identified in Clackamas County: Professional Consulting Services, and Finance and Insurance. This analysis indicates the City of Lake Oswego has different economic strengths than the rest of Clackamas County. Manufacturing, Transportation and Warehousing are some of the County's key clusters, compared to the Portland metropolitan region. Employment in these clusters is not concentrated in Lake Oswego. On the other hand, Finance, Insurance, and Professional Consulting Services were identified as key clusters in the County, where Lake Oswego has a high concentration of wages in these sectors, compared to the County as a whole. Were it not for the strength of these sectors in Lake Oswego, it is unlikely that Clackamas County would show a comparative advantage in these clusters. Target Industries Based on current employment trends, the City's competitive advantages, and City land-use and economic development policies, types of businesses that may be attracted to Lake Oswego include: • Finance and Insurance. Lake Oswego currently has a high concentration of employment in finance and insurance. The City's high quality of life, prestige, proximity to Downtown Portland, concentration of employment in finance and insurance, and access to high quality labor may make Lake Oswego firms particularly competitive in this industry. • Professional, Scientific, Technical Services and Information. The availability of highly educated and skilled labor, concentration of existing professional firms, and the high quality of life in Lake Oswego make it attractive to professional service firms and information firms. These types of businesses could include engineering, research, law firms, accounting firms, software development, and other professional services that are attracted to high-quality settings. • Real Estate. Lake Oswego's high quality housing stock and reputation as a desirable commercial location make Lake Oswego attractive to real estate firms. The growth in this industry, however, may be limited because of limited supply of land (and real estate opportunities) in Lake Oswego. The City may continue to attract real estate firms that primarily operate in communities outside of Lake Oswego. • Corporate or Regional Headquarters. The availability of office space on Kruse Way (and other parts of Lake Oswego), quality of life, prestige, proximity to Portland, location along 1-5, availability of executive housing, and availability of highly educated workers may make Lake Oswego attractive as a place to locate corporate or regional headquarters. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep277��E fi pF$ PP 23-8 3 AEXN VD='1T U 69 O$ 5 2 March 2013 Update • Green Businesses. There is no clear definition of what constitutes a green industry or business. In general, green businesses are those that produce products or services that improve or maintain environmental quality. Opportunities for environmentally conscious businesses are growing. The type of green businesses that may choose to locate or expand in Lake Oswego includes: training and support firms, research firms, or small scale, light industrial firms with environmentally friendly practices. • Health Care. One of the fastest growing sectors in the national and State economy is Health Care. The aging of the population in Lake Oswego, and the Portland metropolitan region, make Health Care a sector that is likely to grow in Lake Oswego. The types of health care businesses likely to locate or expand in Lake Oswego are medical offices rather than large complexes, given land supply. • Services for Residents. Population growth will drive development of retail and government services in Lake Oswego. • Services for Seniors. The Portland metropolitan region and Lake Oswego's growing population of retirees or people nearing retirement, creates demand for services for seniors, such as medical services or high-amenity senior housing, which may be attracted to Lake Oswego. • Government and Public Services. Lake Oswego will continue to be the location for institutions such as: Lake Oswego City Services, the Lake Oswego School District, and Marylhurst University. • Advanced Continuing Education. Lake Oswego has shown a commitment to lifelong learning opportunities and is strategic located near Marylhurst University, Portland Community College, Oregon Health and Sciences University and Lewis and Clark University. • Arts. Lake Oswego supports and promotes the arts through the Arts Council of Lake Oswego, Lakewood Center for the Arts and annual Festival of the Arts among other opportunities. This is an integral part of the community that contributes to the excellent quality of life, one of the City's competitive advantages. The draft employment land needs analysis will need to consider any special site requirements from these types of target clusters to ascertain whether the existing land supply and zoning regulations are adequate for retaining and enhancing job growth in these employment sectors. 03//1882/1.�3ppp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep288� pF$ PEO3 0� 3 A-XNM�D='1T U '1362 March 2013 Update INVENTORY OF SUITABLE SITES (LAND SUPPLY) Consistent with the employment land demand forecast, the buildable land inventory (BLI) for the Lake Oswego EOA documents industrial and commercial inventory that currently exists within the Lake Oswego USB. The BLI includes an analysis of existing vacant and partially vacant (sub-dividable) tax lots by current zoning classification and deducted all significant environmental constraints (wetlands, floodplains, stream corridors and slopes greater than 25%) to estimate buildable land area within the Lake Oswego USB. The buildable land area for each tax lot was derived by analyzing GIS data pertaining to environmental features that would constrain the amount of potential site development on vacant and partially vacant areas. The vacant and part-vacant land inventory includes tax lots or parcels that have at least 10,000 square feet (about 1/4 acre) of buildable land area (net of existing developed buildings and environmental and slope constraints). The land supply analysis focused on the land use classifications that can accommodate job growth within the USB and does not include zones with no buildable land. As shown in Table 9, Lake Oswego has four commercial, one institutional and one industrial zoning designation that meet these criteria. Table 9. Lake Oswego Employment Zone Designations Commercial East End General Commercial (EC) General Commercial (GC) West Lake Grove Office Commercial/Neighborhood Commercial (OC/NC) Campus Research & Development (CR&D) Institutional Campus Institutional (CI) Industrial Industrial Park (IP) Prepared by FCS GROUP. The vacant and partially vacant land inventory for the Lake Oswego USB includes 12 tax lots with a total buildable land area of 20.11 acres, as indicated in Table 10. Table 10. Distribution of Vacant and Part Vacant Lands by Land Use Zone Classification, Lake Oswego USB Vacant and Part-Vacant Property Zone 0.26 to 1 Acre 1 to 3 Acres 3 to 6 Acres > 6 Acres Total Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Commercial 7 2.98 2 4.63 1 4.67 10 12.3 EC 2 0.57 2 0.6 GC 4 1.89 2 4.63 6 6.5 OC/NC 1 0.52 1 0.5 CR & D 1 4.67 1 4.7 Institutional (CI) 1 6.92 1 6.92 Industrial (IP) 1 0.91 1 0.91 Total 8 3.89 2 4.63 1 4.67 1 6.92 12 20.11 Prepared by FCS GROUP. 03//188/1.3p iT, Exhibit N5/Page299 PEAT-88 3 A RYID=yIT UGA %p 6$2 March 2013 Update Redevelopment Potential In addition to the vacant and part-vacant BLI development opportunities, the City of Lake Oswego is also anticipating the potential for significant redevelopment to occur within these and other employment zones. This includes employment zones: Industrial (I), General Commercial (GC) Highway Commercial (HC); and mixed-use zones: Office Campus/Townhome Residential (OC/R-2.5); Neighborhood Commercial/Residential High Density (NC/R-0); Office Campus/Residential High Density (OC/R-3); and East End Commercial/Residential High Density (EC/R-0). Unique Refill and Redevelopment Considerations • Office vacancy rates end of 2010 were 18.3% in Kruse Way and 12.2% in Lake Oswego/West Linn. Equals 635,000 square feet of vacant space. ■ Vacant buildings could support about 1,500 jobs in Lake Oswego (with no vacant land need). • Retail has relatively low vacancy rates (4%). • Industrial had negative absorption during 2010 in Lake Oswego (lost 24,000 SF with 6% vacancy rate). • There are about 103 acres of mixed-use land area with medium to very high redevelopment potential in Lake Oswego (could accommodate about 1,600 net new jobs). The analysis of redevelopment opportunities is based on the ratio of assessed improvement value to land value for each tax lot using 2010 Clackamas County Assessor data where parcels with an improvement value of 150% or less of the land value are considered redevelopable. The results provided in Table 11 indicate that there is a significant amount of redevelopment potential within the Lake Oswego USB. The redevelopment analysis identifies more than 121 acres with economic development potential in the Downtown, Foothills, Kruse Way and Boones Ferry areas. Table 11. Potential Mixed-Use Redevelopment Parcels with less than 1.5:1 improvement- to-land-value ratio and greater than '/4 Acre, Lake Oswego USB Zoning Downtown Foothills Kruse Way Boones Ferry Subtotal GC 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.3 21.3 NC/RO 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 OC/R3 0.0 0.0 9.9 2.1 12.0 EC 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 HC 0.0 0.0 29.0 0.0 29.0 CR&D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EC/RO 0.0 25.7 0.0 0.0 25.7 I (Foothills area) 0.0 14.6 0.0 0.0 14.6 OC 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 Total 14.8 40.2 38.9 27.3 121.2 Source:Analysis by City of Lake Oswego and FCS GROUP, 2011. 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 30 PP3pp 3 ARIVDNT UGh ?Fp6 2 March 2013 Update SITE SUITABILITY ANALYSIS (LAND DEMAND) In the case of Lake Oswego, the city is located within the Metro planning boundary and also needs to maintain consistency between adopted regional plans and requirements. The most recent adopted jobs and population forecast for the Lake Oswego area is from 2005 (Metroscope Generation 2.3) and is now being updated by Metro staff(release date expected December 2011). Preliminary employment and population forecasts for the Lake Oswego area have also been released as part of the 2009 Metro Urban Growth Report, as reflected in the "High" employment growth forecast. Lake Oswego is in the process of coordinating with Metro to update jobs and population forecasts, which are planned for release by Metro in December 2011. The draft EOA will be updated to reflect this forecast prior to final submittal. Hence, for planning purposes, four job growth forecast scenarios are assumed and summarized in Table 12:18 Low Growth Forecast is based on the average annual growth rate (AAGR) from the 2010 census between 2000 and 2010 and assumes that the overall job growth is consistent with population growth in the Lake Oswego USB, with no changes to existing land supply or zoning. In light of recent trends and local objectives, we have assumed no gain/loss in jobs within the government and industrial sectors, and growth to occur in the retail and service sectors. Medium Growth Forecast utilizes the most current trend and forecast data available from the Oregon Employment Department. Like the low growth forecast, it also is based on the AAGR from the 2010 census between 2000-2010 and assumes that the overall job growth is consistent with population growth in the Lake Oswego USB, with no changes to existing land supply or zoning. In light of recent trends and local objectives, we have assumed no gain/loss in jobs within the government and industrial sectors, and growth to occur in the retail and service sectors. To create this forecast, FCS GROUP adjusted the Lake Oswego USB 2009 employment estimates to year 2010 using current employment statistics for the January to December 2010 time period by job sector based on Oregon Employment Department data for Clackamas County. Medium-High Growth Forecast assumes future job growth is consistent with the Oregon Employment Department 2008-2018 employment sector forecasts for Region 15 (Clackamas County). Long-term average annual growth rates for employment sectors are based on the most recent 10-year (2008-2018) employment forecast for job sectors in Clackamas County (Region 15), and are extrapolated to year 2035. High Growth Forecast assumes that the job growth rate is consistent with the 2009 Metro Urban Growth Report (UGR) assumptions (which are still being refined for release in December 2011). 18 Base year(2010) has been updated to reflect current Oregon Employment Dept.job estimates for Lake Oswego USB (Dec. 2009) adjusted to Dec. 2010 using current monthly employment statistics for Clackamas County. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep311� pF PLlT3 0� 3 ARM EAT UGA a'1362 March 2013 Update Table 12. Employment Growth Forecasts, Lake Oswego USB, 2010-203519 2010 2035 Change Average Low Growth Forecast Estimate Projection 2010-2035 Annual AAGR* Change Employment 20,538 22,546 2,008 57 0.37% Retail 1,551 1,760 209 6 0.51% Commercial/Services 13,382 15,181 1,799 51 0.51% Industrial 2,834 2,834 0% Government/Education 2,771 2,771 0% Medium Growth 2010 2035 Change Average Forecast Estimate Projection 2010-2035 Annual AAGR* Change Employment 20,538 24,354 3,815 109 0.68% Retail 1,551 1,948 396 11 0.91% Commercial/Services 13,382 16,801 3,419 98 0.91% Industrial 2,834 2,834 0% Government/Education 2,771 2,771 0% Medium-High 2010 2035 Change Average Growth Forecast Estimate Projection 2010-2035 Annual AAGR* Change Employment 20,538 25,398 4,859 194 0.85% Retail 1,551 2,142 590 24 1.30% Commercial/Services 13,382 17,297 3,915 157 1.03% Industrial 2,834 2,492 (142) (14) -0.51% Government/Education 2,771 3,468 697 28 0.90% 2010 2035 Change Average High Growth Forecast Estimate Projection 2010-2035 Annual AAGR* Change Employment 20,538 34,280 13,741 550 2.07% Retail 1,551 2,691 1,140 46 2.23% Commercial/Services 13,382 23,001 9,619 385 2.19% Industrial 2,834 4,251 1,417 57 1.63% Government/Education 2,771 4,336 1,565 63 1.81% *AAGR=average annual growth rate Note:a portion of the total net new job growth shown in Table 12 can and will occur within vacant buildings, including Kruse Way Corridor and locations, and a portion will need to be accommodated on vacant lands and through redevelopment opportunities. Prepared by FCS GROUP. Once the annual average job growth rates and job forecasts were created, a series of assumptions were used to allocate: jobs to building types; building types to square feet of floor area; and building floor area to redevelopment or vacant lands by general zone classification. The following key assumptions are generally consistent with the Metro Urban Growth Report (UGR) and local experience. The methodology used to translate the employment growth forecast into the vacant land needs forecasts involved a series of assumptions to allocate jobs to building types, and assumptions to allocate building types into redevelopment and new construction floor area requirements; and then building types into general land use classifications (see Appendix A). The assumptions for 19 In October 2012, the Lake Oswego City Council accepted the 2035 forecasts contained in the table on page 4 of this report. The City's forecast reflects the Medium-High forecast from Table 12, which most closely aligns with Metro-adopted forecast for Lake Oswego of 5,291 new jobs between 2010 and 2035. 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 32 PP3pp 3 AUNliiEATAI GA ap 2 March 2013 Update translating job forecasts into building and land needs were derived by FCS GROUP and City of Lake Oswego Long Range Planning staff based on local observations; with assumptions that are generally consistent with the methodology utilized by Metro in the Draft 2009-2030 UGR. See Appendix B for more information. As shown in Table 13, the long-term analysis of vacant land need for employment growth within the Lake Oswego USB by year 2035 identifies a range in employment land needs from 14 acres (low) to 23 acres (medium) to 56 acres (medium-high) and up to 141 acres (high). Table 13. Vacant Employment Land Demand Forecast, Lake Oswego USB, 2010 to 2035 (gross buildable acres) Vacant Land Demand Land Use Classification Low Medium Med-High High Commercial and Mixed Use 10 20 40 95 Institutional 1 1 9 21 Industrial 1 2 0 24 Total Vacant Land Demand 14 23 56 141 Source:compiled by FCS GROUP. 03//188/1.3p Exhibit N5/Page333 7�p PEAT-88 3 EXH D=yIT U �F'1 652 March 2013 Update ASSESSMENT OF EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS A range of land need forecasts were prepared for consideration, including: low, medium, medium-high and high land needs scenarios. Table 14 summarizes Lake Oswego's land supply and demand for each employment growth forecast. The Economic Opportunities Analysis requirements focus on an assessment of vacant employment land, however due to Lake Oswego's limited supply of vacant employment land, this report also assesses the potential to add jobs through redevelopment and through filling vacant office space. The results in Table 14 show that with the exception of Institutional demand in the medium-high employment forecast, Lake Oswego's supply of vacant and redevelopable land along with vacant office space, could provide the capacity for over 4,000 new jobs under the medium-high job growth forecast. The limited vacant land supply can most easily accommodate the low growth forecast without more focused economic strategies to support job growth. While commercial and mixed-use land demand can only be met by vacant land in the low scenario, the redevelopable land supply provides sufficient capacity to meet commercial/mixed-use demand in all but the high growth forecast. For institutional uses, the vacant land supply can accommodate the low and medium demand forecasts, while an additional 2.1 to 14.1 acres of land would be needed for the medium-high and high forecasts. For industrial uses, the low to flat demand in all but the high scenario, combined with over 30 acres of redevelopment potential in the southwest Industrial Park zone, results in a surplus of industrial land for the low, medium and medium-high employment forecasts. Short-Term Land Supply and Need Determination In addition to the long-term land supply, OAR 660-009-0005 also requires the identification of a short-term supply of land meaning "suitable land that is ready for construction within one year of an application of a building permit or request for a service extension." OAR 660-009-0025 also requires that cities must provide "at least 25 percent of the total land supply within the urban growth boundary designated for industrial and other employment uses as short-term supply." In Lake Oswego's case all of the vacant employment land supply currently included within the Lake Oswego USB has urban services and infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, storm water drainage)facilities to handle some level of potential development, or such facilities could be expanded within a 1-3 year time frame to render the inventory suitable for accommodating short-term development. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep34� Z pF$ PL33-0� 3 AEXN �D='1T U lFS 5 2 March 2013 Update Table 14. Employment Vacant Land Needs and Vacant Land Supply, Lake Oswego USB, 2010 to 2035 (gross buildable acres) Vacant & Redevelopment Potential Land Acreage Low Growth Medium Med-High High Growth Growth Growth Scenario Scenario Commercial & Mixed-Use Scenario Scenario Land Supply- Vacant 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 Land Supply-Redevelopment 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.7 Land Supply Subtotal 119.0 119.0 119.0 119.0 Vacant Land Demand 10.0 20.0 40.0 95.0 Redevelopment Land Demand 1 8.7 21.8 49.4 91.7 Land Demand Subtotal 18.7 41.8 89.4 186.7 Overall Land Surplus/(Deficit) 100.3 77.2 29.6 (67.7) Institutional Land Supply- Vacant 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Land Supply-Redevelopment n/a n/a n/a n/a Land Supply Subtotal 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Vacant Land Demand 1.0 1.0 9.0 21.0 Redevelopment Land Demand 2 0.5 1.0 16.7 37.6 Land Demand Subtotal 1.5 2.0 25.7 58.6 Overall Land Surplus/(Deficit) 5.4 4.9 (18.8) (51.7) Industrial Land Supply-Vacant 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Land Supply-Redevelopment 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 Land Supply Subtotal 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 Vacant Land Demand 1.0 2.0 - 24.0 Redevelopment Land Demand 3 - - - 46.4 Land Demand Subtotal 1.0 2.0 - 70.4 Overall Land Surplus/(Deficit) 37.5 36.5 38.5 (31.9) Note: Redevelopment assumptions assume portion of job growth is addressed though building refill/vacancy absorption as noted in Appendix C. 03//188/1.3po iiTT,,�� Exhibit NN5/Pagepp355�� 72p $ PEAT-88 3 A RI ill s crAu �F 6 2 March 2013 Update IMPLEMENTATION Vacant Land Supply/Redevelopment According to the City's BLI, Lake Oswego has a limited supply of vacant land area inside the USB of approximately 20 acres, seven of which are at Marylhurst/Mary's Woods. Therefore, the City must rely on its redevelopment capacity, and optimize of the remaining vacant land inventory to retain and attract business investment and employment opportunities. Possible Strategies for Policy Consideration 1. Identify areas for increased, redeveloped employment densities. 2. Strengthen the City's redevelopment program; identify redevelopment tools, strategies and priorities. 3. Use incentive-based approaches and/or regulatory strategies to promote redevelopment and greater development intensity (mixed-use redevelopment with combined retail or office uses and housing), especially in centers and corridors. Options include, but are not limited to: • Using urban renewal and tax increment financing for the development of infrastructure necessary to stimulate economic growth • Exploring reduced system development charges where merited • Changing development standards or restrictions (overall or for certain types of desired development) • Assembling land • Investing in structured parking, requiring less parking and/or increasing public transportation use Commitment to Provide a Short-Term Land Supply Cities must provide a competitive short-term supply of land. Short-term is defined as developable within one year. Cities must also include detailed strategies for preparing the total land supply for development and replacing the short-term supply of land as it is developed. The policies should identify a process for regular review of the short-term supply of employment land. Possible Strategies Monitor and update the Buildable Lands Inventory to assess annually the adequacy of short and long-term supplies of buildable employment land. Commitment to Provide Adequate Sites and Facilities Cities must include policies to designate an adequate number of sites of suitable sizes, types and locations for their employment need. Cities also must have policies that provide necessary public facilities and transportation facilities through public facilities and transportation system planning. Possible Strategy Address the public facility needs of business and economic development through identifying and programming needed public facilities and services. Update public facility plans according to the economic development vision, objectives and strategies. Discuss and resolve the desired balance between industrial and employment land. 03//188/1.3pp T,� Exhibit N5/Pagep366� 7 pF$ PP 23-�0� 3 ARM EAT Elci aF'136 2 March 2013 Update Other Considerations Small Businesses Home occupations are an important form of land use efficiency in Lake Oswego. Home occupations offer employment land use efficiency because they are typically located in existing dwellings and do not require additional land or built space. Possible Strategy Emphasize policies that encourage or support home-based employment for sole practitioners while balancing neighborhood quality of life. Provide more opportunities by adding greater flexibility with home occupations. 03//1882/1.�3ppop iT,� Exhibit N5/Pagep377� Z p $ PLlT 301n3 ALAWidE liT U O*C1 62 March 2013 Update Appendix A. Assumptions for Vacant Land Needs Forecast Assumptions for Allocating Employment Sectors to Building Types Building Types Employment Sectors Office Institutional Flex/Bus. General Warehouse Retail Total Park Industrial Retail 5% 1% 5% 0% 0% 89% 100% Services 72% 1% 5% 0% 0% 22% 100% Industrial 0% 0% 67% 31% 2% 0% 100% Government/ 30% 60% 5% 0% 0% 5% 100% Education Source:Metro Draft 2009-2030 Urban Growth Report;modified to reflect local observations. Assumptions for Allocating Building Types to Land Needs* Office Government/ Flex/Bus. General Warehouse Retail Institutional Park Industrial Vacant Building/Redevelopment 70% 20% 70% 70% 70% 50% Job Allocation' Vacant Land Allocation2 30% 80% 30% 30% 30% 50% Building SF Per Job2 250 600 550 700 1,100 500 Floor-Area-Ratio2 0.50 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.30 Public Facility Net:Gross Adjustment3 1.10 1.05 1.10 1.05 1.05 1.10 Work at Home Adjustment4 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.05 *Assumptions are intended to reflect a long-term average. 1.Adjusts for building refill& vacancy allowances. 2. Building density assumptions for building types are generally consistent with the 2009 Metro Draft 2009-2030 Urban Growth Report development forecast methodology/assumptions. 3.Allowances take into account land dedicated to public/utility easements. 4.Allowance based on local business license data;and is generally consistent with national statistics by US Dept. of Labor, Bureau of of Labor Statistics, Technical information: "Work at Home in 2004". Source:assumptions are generally consistent with the Metro Draft 2009-2030 Urban Growth Report;modified to reflect local observations. Potential Employment Growth Forecasts and Required Building Floor Area, Lake Oswego USB, 2010 to 2035 Potential Demand for Vacant Buildings/Redevelopment (floor area in Sq.Ft.) Low Medium Med-High High Office 133,000 253,000 437,000 1,064,000 Institutional 2,000 3,000 51,000 115,000 Flex/Business Park 25,000 48,000 11,000 550,000 General Industrial (47,000) 196,000 Warehouse (5,000) 20,000 Retail 95,000 180,000 324,000 Total 255,000 484,000 771,000 1,945,000 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 38 PL33-p8 3 ARM Fill D='1T uct% aF 6 2 March 2013 Update Potential Demand for Development on Vacant Lands (floor area in Sq.Ft.) Low Medium Med-High High Office 57,000 108,000 187,000 456,000 Institutional 6,000 12,000 203,000 458,000 Flex/Business Park 11,000 21,000 5,000 236,000 General Industrial (20,000) 84,000 Warehouse (2,000) 9,000 Retail 95,000 180,000 324,000 732,000 Total 169,000 321,000 697,000 1,975,000 Total Potential Building Floor Area Demand (floor area in Sq.Ft.) Low Medium Med-High High Office 190,000 361,000 624,000 1,520,000 Institutional 8,000 15,000 254,000 573,000 Flex/Business Park 36,000 69,000 16,000 786,000 General Industrial (67,000) 280,000 Warehouse (7,000) 29,000 Retail 190,000 360,000 648,000 732,000 Total 424,000 805,000 1,468,000 3,920,000 Source:compiled by FCS GROUP, 2011. Building to Land Use Assignment Assumptions Local Zoning Office Institutional Flex/Bus. General Warehouse Retail Classification Park Industrial Commercial 60% 30% 10% 10% 0% 65% Mixed Use 30% 10% 5% 5% 0% 30% Institutional 10% 60% 0% 0% 10% 0% Industrial 0% 0% 85% 85% 90% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Assumptions by FCS GROUP and City of Lake Oswego planning staff based on local observations. 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 39 PERT-B 3 ARM FillD='1TAIEg 'I aF 6 2 March 2013 Update Appendix B. Redevelopment Allocations and Land Needs by Forecast Redevelopment Forecast, Low Growth Scenario, Lake Oswego USB, 2010-2035 Net New Potential Potential Demand Absorption Absorption Potential Avg. Redevel- for in Existing in Existing Absorption Building Most Building opment Building Vacant Vacant for New Sq.Ft. Likely Floor- Land Floor Area Buildings Buildings Redevelop- Per Job Job Area- Need Building Type (Sq.Ft.) 1 (%) 2 (SF) ment(SF) 3 Growth Ratio 3 (acres) Office 190,000 100% 190,000 - 250 760 0.50 - Institutional 8,000 50% _ 4,000 4,000 600 13 0.35 1 Flex/Business Park 36,000 100% 36,000 - 550 65 0.35 - General Industrial - - - - 700 - - - Warehouse - - - - 1,100 - - - Retail 190,000 40% 76,000 114,000 500 380 0.30 9 Total 424,000 306,000 118,000 1,219 9 Redevelopment Forecast, Medium Growth Scenario, Lake Oswego USB, 2010-2035 Net New Potential Potential Demand Absorption Absorption Potential Avg. Redevel- for in Existing in Existing Absorption Building Most Building opment Building Vacant Vacant for New Sq.Ft. Likely Floor- Land Floor Area Buildings Buildings Redevelop- Per Job Job Area- Need Building Type (Sq.Ft.) 1 (%) 2 (SF) ment(SF) 3 Growth Ratio 3 (acres) Office 361,000 100% 361,000 - 250 1,444 0.50 - Institutional 15,000 50% 7,500 7,500 600 25 0.35 1 Flex/Business Park 69,000 100% 69,000 - 550 125 0.35 - General Industrial - - - - 700 - - - Warehouse - - - - 1,100 - - - Retail 360,000 21% 75,600 284,400 500 720 0.30 22 Total 805,000 513,100 291,900 2,314 23 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 40 PL33308 3 ARM FillD='1TAU6 67F'1362 March 2013 Update Redevelopment Forecast, Medium-High Growth Scenario, Lake Oswego USB, 2010-2035 Net New Potential Potential Demand Absorption Absorption Potential Avg. Redevel- for in Existing in Existing Absorption Building Most Building opment Building Vacant Vacant for New Sq.Ft. Likely Floor- Land Floor Area Buildings Buildings Redevelop- Per Job Job Area- Need Building Type (Sq.Ft.) ' (%) 2 (SF) ment(SF) 3 Growth Ratio 3 (acres) Office 624,000 80% 499,200 124,800 250 2,496 0.50 6 Institutional 254,000 10% 25,400 228,600 600 423 0.35 17 Flex/Business Park 16,000 100% 16,000 - 550 29 0.35 - General Industrial (67,000) - - (67,000) 700 (96) - - Warehouse (7,000) - - (7,000) 1,100 (6) - - Retail 648,000 12% 77,760 570,240 500 1,296 0.30 44 Total 1,468,000 618,360 849,640 4,142 66 Redevelopment Forecast, High Growth Scenario, Lake Oswego USB, 2010-2035 Net New Potential Potential Demand Absorption Absorption Potential Avg. Redevel- for in Existing in Existing Absorption Building Most Building op ment Building Vacant Vacant for New Sq.Ft. Likely Floor- Land Floor Area Buildings Buildings Redevelop- Per Job Job Area- Need Building Type (Sq.Ft.) 1 (%) 2 (SF) ment(SF) 3 Growth Ratio 3 (acres) Office 1,520,000 40% 608,000 912,000 250 6,080 0.50 42 Institutional 573,000 5% 28,650 544,350 600 955 0.35 38 Flex/Business Park 786,000 10% 78,600 707,400 550 1,429 0.35 46 General Industrial 280,000 - - 280,000 700 400 - - Warehouse 29,000 - - 29,000 1,100 26 - - Retail 732,000 11% 80,520 651,480 500 1,464 0.30 50 Total 3,920,000 795,770 3,124,230 10,354 176 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 41 PL33T-B 3 ARM FillD='1TAIEt3 aF'1362 March 2013 Update Appendix C. Vacant Building Absorption Assumptions Vacant Building Absorption Assumption (building floor area in sq. ft.) Low Medium Med-High High Growth Growth Growth Growth Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario 1. Commercial & Mixed-Use (floor area sq.ft.) 266,000 436,600 576,960 688,520 2. Institutional (floor area sq. ft.) 4,000 7,500 25,400 28,650 3. Industrial (floor area sq. ft.) 36,000 69,000 16,000 78,600 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 42 PLlT 301n3 ALAWids=v,Au% i$s 2 March 2013 Update Appendix D. Stakeholder Interview Summary ECONorthwest conducted interviews with five stakeholders in Lake Oswego. The stakeholders were identified by City staff and included the following people: 1. Matt Coles with Shorenstein Properties 2. Jerry Wheeler with the Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce 3. Steve Dodds with Norris, Beggs & Simpson 4. Robert LeFeber with Commercial Realty Advisors, Northwest LLC 5. Barry Cain and Matt Grady with Gramor Development We asked the stakeholders what the opportunities and barriers to economic development in Lake Oswego are. This appendix presents the themes from the interviews. Opportunities for economic development in Lake Oswego Interviewees identified the following opportunities to doing business in Lake Oswego: 1. High amenity. The amenities in Lake Oswego provide opportunities for business. The amenities attract high-quality workers to the City and make the City attractive to businesses that want to locate in a high amenity area. The amenities most frequently mentioned were: high-end housing, parks, high environmental quality, the Lake, restaurants, and retail. 2. Demographics. Lake Oswego's demographics are an opportunity, especially for retail businesses. The demographics identified were: the concentration of high income households, the aging population, family households, and high educational attainment. The types of businesses that might be attracted to Lake Oswego because of the City's demographics include services for the aging population (e.g., medical services) or high- end retail. 3. Transportation access. The City's location along 1-5, access to 1-205, and access to Highway 43 are an opportunity for businesses in Lake Oswego. The City's automotive access provides easy access to the rest of the Portland metropolitan region. If the streetcar is extended to Lake Oswego, that would provide earlier non-automotive access to Portland. 4. Location. Lake Oswego's proximity to Portland and location near other communities in the area is an opportunity, especially for businesses that prefer to locate near Portland or other nearby businesses. 5. Small businesses. The greatest opportunity for business development in Lake Oswego is for small businesses (those with 50 or fewer employees). Lake Oswego provides opportunities for entrepreneurs, as well as high-paying services (e.g., attorneys, engineering firms, or accounting firms). 6. Home occupations. Lake Oswego is attractive to people that want to live and work at home, in a high amenity area. The City may have opportunity for reducing employment land needs and providing opportunities for economic development through home occupations and home offices. 7. Retail development. Lake Oswego has opportunities for retail development, such as boutique retail and retail for residents in Downtown. Other areas of Lake Oswego 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 43 PL33-p8 3 AgeNitreD='1T WA R'1362 March 2013 Update provide opportunities for retail development, such as village development in Lake Grove or high-end retail and services (e.g., a spa or financial institutions) in Lake View Village. 8. Office development. Kruse Way and Meadow Road provide opportunities for office development and location of businesses that want a prestigious location, such as regional or corporate headquarters. Building vacancies provide opportunities for attracting new businesses to Lake Oswego. 9. Downtown. Lake Oswego's downtown provides small, infill or redevelopment opportunities, as well as mixed-use opportunities with retail on the ground floor and commercial uses on the upper floors. 10. City government. The City government has opportunities to improve the business climate in Lake Oswego. Suggestions included: doing more to coordinate and promote economic development (e.g., assist with parcel assembly to make larger redevelopment project possible); modifying the planning process to make it easier and faster; modifying the zoning code to allow more flexibility with building design, building height (to allow five story buildings), and allow more flexibility with parking requirements. Several interviewees acknowledged that the City has made progress in making the development process easier but they felt it could be further improved. 11. Infill and redevelopment. The opportunities for employment growth in Lake Oswego are primarily through increasing densities through infill and redevelopment. There is little vacant land available for development but there is demand for commercial and retail growth in Lake Oswego. 12. Potential UGB expansion. If Metro expands the UGB and Lake Oswego expands into the Stafford basin, this would provide opportunities for light industrial and flexible commercial space. Additional land for employment uses would increase economic activity in Lake Oswego. Most interviewees said that they do not expect the City to expand into the Stafford basin in the foreseeable future. 13. Urban renewal. The urban renewal district in Downtown has made funding infrastructure improvements possible. Some interviewees suggested that the City should expand the urban renewal district to other areas that need improvements, such as the Foothills area. Barriers to economic development in Lake Oswego Interviewees identified the following barriers to doing business in Lake Oswego: 1. Land. The availability of land in Lake Oswego was the most commonly mentioned barrier to economic development. The barriers included: availability of vacant land, availability of sites over a few acres, and cost of land. The lack of light industrial land with highway access or flex space is a problem because the City has so little industrial land. 2. Infill and redevelopment. Infill and redevelopment, especially of sites larger than an acre, is difficult. This is especially true in Downtown, where parcel assembly of sites is very difficult because of the highly fragmented pattern of ownership. In addition, the City's policies make it difficult to change existing uses through rezoning. 3. Parking. High land costs make providing parking costly, especially for structured or underground parking. The need for parking, both because of the lack of transportation alternatives and City policies, make it difficult to increase densities in areas with office 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 44 PLlT3 8 3 ARM EAT UCA blFS 5 2 March 2013 Update buildings. In addition, the lack of parking in Downtown makes retail uses more difficult, especially for small retailers that cannot afford to build parking structures. The City could address this issue by building public parking structures. 4. Providing infrastructure. The cost of providing new infrastructure and funding maintenance of existing infrastructure is a barrier to economic development. The lack of needed infrastructure or maintenance is a barrier to economic development. 5. Downtown. The distance from Downtown to 1-5 and the capacity of Highway 43 and local roads are a barrier to development in Downtown. The distance from 1-5 will prevent Downtown from providing regional retail or services. In addition, increasing densities in Downtown substantially may create capacity issues on the street system, especially if people come from outside of Lake Oswego for retail and services. 6. Affordable housing. The lack of affordable housing, especially workforce housing, is a barrier to businesses with lower paid employees. These employees generally cannot afford to live in Lake Oswego and must commute from other communities. 7. Community attitudes. Community attitudes about development are a barrier to development, especially development near established neighborhoods. In addition, community concerns about development often make the development process slower. 8. City government. The complexity and speed of the planning process is a barrier to economic development. Interviewees identified the following barriers to economic development in City policies: • The City's design review process is inflexible and difficult. • The City's sign regulations are highly restrictive and do not allow retail businesses enough latitude to advertise their business. • The City's zoning ordinance prevents increases in density in some instances, with height limitations and parking requirements. The high cost of land combined with zoning restrictions may make some projects unviable, including some that the City might find desirable. For example, developers cannot build over four stories tall and must provide a certain amount of parking. The cost of the land, parking, and construction may make the project financially unviable. The same project might be financially viable if the building could be one or two stories tall. 03/18/13 Exhibit 5/Page 45 PL33-p8 3 A-XNMifiD='1T UCO bF'1362 80th OREGON LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY--2019 Regular Session Enrolled House Bill 2003 Sponsored by Representative KOTEK; Representatives FAHEY, KENY-GUYER, WILDE CHAPTER AN ACT Relating to buildings; creating new provisions; amending ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319, 197.320, 215.416, 215.441, 227.175, 227.500 and 455.062 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, and section 3, chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39); and declaring an emergency. Be It Enacted by the People of the State of Oregon: SECTION 1. (1) As used in this section: (a) "Area median income" means the median income for households established by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. (b) "Existing housing stock" means housing, by affordability level and type, actually constructed in a city or Metro. (c) "High income" means above 120 percent of the area median income. (d) "Housing shortage" means the difference between the estimated housing units of different affordability levels and housing types needed to accommodate the existing popu- lation and the existing housing stock, measured in dwelling units. (e) "Low income" means income above 50 percent and at or below 80 percent of the area median income. (f) "Metro" means a metropolitan service district organized under ORS chapter 268. (g) "Moderate income" means income above 80 percent and at or below 120 percent of the area median income. (h) "Region" has the meaning given that term in ORS 284.752. (i) "Very low income" means income at or below 50 percent of the area median income. (2) The Housing and Community Services Department, in coordination with the Depart- ment of Land Conservation and Development and the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, shall develop a methodology for calculating: (a) A regional housing needs analysis that identifies the total number of housing units necessary to accommodate anticipated populations in a region over the next 20 years based on: (A) Trends in density and in the average mix of housing types of urban residential de- velopment; (B) Demographic and population trends; (C) Economic trends and cycles; and (D) Equitable distribution of publicly supported housing within a region. (b) An estimate of existing housing stock of each city and Metro. (c) A housing shortage analysis for each city and Metro. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 1 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 1 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 88 OF 136 (d) An estimate of the number of housing units necessary to accommodate anticipated population growth over the next 20 years for each city and Metro. (3) The methodologies for calculating the regional housing needs analysis, the estimate of existing housing stock, the housing shortage analysis and the estimate of housing neces- sary to accommodate growth that are developed under subsection (2) of this section must classify housing by: (a) Housing type, including attached and detached single-family housing, multifamily housing and manufactured dwellings or mobile homes; and (b) Affordability, by housing that is affordable to households with: (A) Very low income; (B) Low income; (C) Moderate income; or (D) High income. (4) No later than September 1, 2020, the Housing and Community Services Department, in coordination with the Department of Land Conservation and Development and the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, shall conduct for each region a regional housing needs analysis and, for each city and Metro, shall estimate existing housing stock, conduct a housing shortage analysis and estimate the housing necessary to accommodate growth. (5) In developing the methodologies and conducting the analyses under this section, the Housing and Community Services Department may: (a) Consult or contract with subject matter experts, cities and Metro, regional solutions centers described in ORS 284.754 (2) and other jurisdictions that have created or conducted regional housing needs analyses. (b) Consider the most recent consolidated population forecast produced by the Portland State University Population Research Center in making any relevant calculation or forecast. (c) Consider any other relevant existing analyses, data and other information collected or produced by state agencies or public entities. (d) Make changes to the regional boundaries in order to make regions more accurately align with shared employment, transportation or housing market dynamics. SECTION 2. (1) No later than March 1, 2021, the Housing and Community Services De- partment, in consultation with the Department of Land Conservation and Development and the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, shall submit a report, in the manner provided in ORS 192.245 to an appropriate committee of the Legislative Assembly, that summarizes the findings of the regional housing needs analysis, estimate of housing stock, housing shortage analysis and estimate of housing necessary to accommodate growth con- ducted under section 1 (4) of this 2019 Act. (2) No later than March 1, 2021, the Department of Land Conservation and Development, in consultation with the Oregon Department of Administrative Services and the Housing and Community Services Department, shall submit a report, in the manner provided in ORS 192.245, to an appropriate committee of the Legislative Assembly that evaluates: (a) Whether a regional housing needs analysis and housing shortage analysis described in section 1 of this 2019 Act could appropriately allocate among the cities or local govern- ments in a region the housing shortage described; (b) How a regional housing needs analysis and housing shortage analysis may compare to existing assessments of housing need and capacity conducted by local governments under ORS 197.296 (3) and (10) in terms of: (A) Cost and cost effectiveness; (B) Reliability and accuracy; (C) Repeatability; and (D) Predictability; Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 2 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 2 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 89 OF 136 (c) How a regional housing needs analysis and housing shortage analysis may relate to statewide planning goals related to housing and any rules and policies adopted pursuant to these goals and ORS 197.295 to 197.314; (d) Whether different boundaries would be more appropriate for defining regions within the regional housing needs analysis based on: (A) Relevance of data in appropriately defining a commuting, employment or housing market; or (B) Ease or cost of collecting or analyzing data; (e) Other ways in which the regional housing needs analysis or housing shortage analysis could be improved; and (f) Whether the regional housing needs analysis, or an improved version, could serve as an acceptable methodology statewide for land use planning relating to housing. (3) In preparing the report required under subsection (2) of this section, the Department of Land Conservation and Development may consult or contract with other state agencies, subject matter experts, private firms, local governments, regional solutions centers de- scribed in ORS 284.754 (2) and other jurisdictions that have created or conducted regional housing needs analyses. SECTION 3. Sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act are added to and made a part of ORS 197.295 to 197.314. SECTION 4. (1) A city with a population greater than 10,000 shall develop and adopt a housing production strategy under this section no later than one year after: (a) The city's deadline for completing a housing capacity analysis under ORS 197.296 (2)(a); (b) The city's deadline for completing a housing capacity analysis under ORS 197.296 (10)(b); or (c) A date scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development Commission following the allocation of housing capacity to the city by a metropolitan service district under ORS 197.299 (2)(d). (2) A housing production strategy must include a list of specific actions, including the adoption of measures and policies, that the city shall undertake to promote development within the city to address a housing need identified under ORS 197.296 (6) for the most recent 20-year period described in ORS 197.296 (2)(b). Actions under this subsection may include: (a) The reduction of financial and regulatory impediments to developing needed housing, including removing or easing approval standards or procedures for needed housing at higher densities or that is affordable; (b) The creation of financial and regulatory incentives for development of needed hous- ing, including creating incentives for needed housing at higher densities or that is affordable; and (c) The development of a plan to access resources available at local, regional, state and national levels to increase the availability and affordability of needed housing. (3) In creating a housing production strategy, a city shall review and consider: (a) Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households living in existing needed housing; (b) Market conditions affecting the provision of needed housing; (c) Measures already adopted by the city to promote the development of needed housing; (d) Existing and expected barriers to the development of needed housing; and (e) For each action the city includes in its housing production strategy: (A) The schedule for its adoption; (B) The schedule for its implementation; (C) Its expected magnitude of impact on the development of needed housing; and (D) The time frame over which it is expected to impact needed housing. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 3 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 3 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 90 OF 136 (4) The housing production strategy must include within its index a copy of the city's most recently completed survey under section 1 (2), chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018. (5) The adoption of a housing production strategy is not a land use decision and is not subject to appeal or review except as provided in section 5 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 5. (1) No later than 20 days after a city's adoption or amendment of a housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act, a city shall submit the adopted strategy or amended strategy to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. (2) The submission under subsection (1) of this section must include copies of: (a) The signed decision adopting the housing production strategy or amended strategy; (b) The text of the housing production strategy clearly indicating any amendments to the most recent strategy submitted under this section; (c) A brief narrative summary of the housing production strategy; and (d) The information reviewed and considered under section 6 (2) of this 2019 Act. (3) On the same day the city submits notice of the housing production strategy or amended strategy, the city shall provide a notice to persons that participated in the pro- ceedings that led to the adoption of the strategy and requested notice in writing. (4) Within 10 days of receipt of the submission under subsection (1) of this section, the department shall provide notice to persons described under ORS 197.615 (3). (5) The notices given under subsections (3) and (4) of this section must state: (a) How and where materials described in subsection (2) of this section may be freely obtained; (b) That comments on the strategy may be submitted to the department within 45 days after the department has received the submission; and (c) That there is no further right of appeal. (6) Based upon criteria adopted by the Land Conservation and Development Commission, including any criteria adopted under section 6 (2) of this 2019 Act, the department shall, within 120 days after receiving the submission under subsection (1) of this section: (a) Approve the housing production strategy; (b) Approve the housing production strategy, subject to further review and actions under section 6 (2) of this 2019 Act; or (c) Remand the housing production strategy for further modification as identified by the department. (7) A determination by the department under subsection (6) of this section is not a land use decision and is final and not subject to appeal. SECTION 6. (1) The Land Conservation and Development Commission, in consultation with the Housing and Community Services Department, shall adopt criteria for reviewing and identifying cities with a population greater than 10,000 that have not sufficiently: (a) Achieved production of needed housing within their jurisdiction; or (b) Implemented a housing production strategy adopted under section 4 of this 2019 Act. (2) The criteria adopted by the commission under subsection (1) of this section may in- clude the city's: (a) Unmet housing need as described in ORS 197.296 (6); (b) Unmet housing need in proportion to the city's population; (c) Percentage of households identified as severely rent burdened as described in section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018; (d) Recent housing development; (e) Recent adoption of a housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act or adoption of actions pursuant to a housing production strategy; (f) Recent or frequent previous identification by the Department of Land Conservation and Development under this section; or (g) Other attributes that the commission considers relevant. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 4 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 4 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 91 OF 136 (3) The Department of Land Conservation and Development may review cities under the criteria adopted under subsection (2) of this section for the purposes of prioritizing actions by the department, including: (a) Awarding available technical or financial resources; (b) Providing enhanced review and oversight of the city's housing production strategy; (c) Requiring a report and explanation if a city does not implement an action within the approximate time frame scheduled within a housing production strategy; (d) Entering into agreements with the city relating to the city's modification or imple- mentation of its housing production strategy; or (e) Petitioning the commission to act under ORS 197.319 to 197.335 to require the city to comply with ORS 197.295 to 197.314 or statewide land use planning goals related to housing or urbanization. SECTION 7. No later than December 31, 2019, the Land Conservation and Development Commission shall adopt a schedule by which metropolitan service districts and cities de- scribed in ORS 197.296 (2)(a)(B) and (10)(c)(B) shall demonstrate sufficient buildable lands. Dates in the schedule may not be earlier than two years following the commission's creation of rules implementing sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act and the amendments to ORS 197.296 and 197.299 by sections 8 and 9 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 8. ORS 197.296 is amended to read: 197.296. (1)(a) The provisions of subsections (2) to (9) of this section apply to metropolitan ser- vice district regional framework plans and local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of 25,000 or more. (b) The Land Conservation and Development Commission may establish a set of factors under which additional cities are subject to the provisions of this section. In establishing the set of factors required under this paragraph, the commission shall consider the size of the city, the rate of popu- lation growth of the city or the proximity of the city to another city with a population of 25,000 or more or to a metropolitan service district. (2)(a) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] A local government shall demonstrate that its comprehensive plan or regional framework plan pro- vides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years: (A) At periodic review under ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) As scheduled by the commission: (i) At least once each eight years for local governments that are not within a metropol- itan service district; or (ii) At least once each six years for a metropolitan service district; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide plan- ning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. (b) The 20-year period shall commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the [periodic or legislative] review under paragraph (a) of this subsection. (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of housing need by type and density range, in accordance with ORS 197.303 and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. (4)(a) For the purpose of the inventory described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, "buildable lands" includes: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 5 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 5 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 92 OF 136 (A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses under the existing planning or zoning; and (D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment. (b) For the purpose of the inventory and determination of housing capacity described in sub- section (3)(a) of this section, the local government must demonstrate consideration of: (A) The extent that residential development is prohibited or restricted by local regulation and ordinance, state law and rule or federal statute and regulation; (B) A written long term contract or easement for radio, telecommunications or electrical facili- ties, if the written contract or easement is provided to the local government; and (C) The presence of a single family dwelling or other structure on a lot or parcel. (c) Except for land that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment, a local government shall create a map or document that may be used to verify and identify specific lots or parcels that have been determined to be buildable lands. (5)(a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) and (c) of this subsection, the determination of housing capacity and need pursuant to subsection (3) of this section must be based on data relating to land within the urban growth boundary that has been collected since the last [periodic] review [or] under subsection (2)(a)(B) of this section [five years, whichever is greater]. The data shall include: (A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development that have actually occurred; (B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development; (C) Demographic and population trends; (D) Economic trends and cycles; and (E) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred on the buildable lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. (b) A local government shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity and need. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (c) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period for economic cycles and trends longer than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the analysis of a wider geographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more ac- curate, complete and reliable data relating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis per- formed pursuant to paragraph (a) of this subsection. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in a determination performed under this para- graph. (6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section, the local government shall take one or more of the following actions to accommodate the additional housing need: (a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, the local government shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public school districts and the local government that has the authority to approve the urban growth boundary; (b) Amend its comprehensive plan, regional framework plan, functional plan or land use regu- lations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential develop- ment will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 6 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 6 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 93 OF 136 expansion of the urban growth boundary. A local government or metropolitan service district that takes this action shall monitor and record the level of development activity and development density by housing type following the date of the adoption of the new measures; or (c) Adopt a combination of the actions described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this subsection. (7) Using the analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, the local government shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, the local government, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. (8)(a) A local government outside a metropolitan service district that takes any actions under subsection (6) or (7) of this section shall demonstrate that the comprehensive plan and land use regulations comply with goals and rules adopted by the commission and implement ORS 197.295 to 197.314. (b) The local government shall determine the density and mix of housing types anticipated as a result of actions taken under subsections (6) and (7) of this section and monitor and record the ac- tual density and mix of housing types achieved. The local government shall compare actual and anticipated density and mix. The local government shall submit its comparison to the commission at the next [periodic review or at the next legislative] review of its urban growth boundary[, which- ever comes first] under subsection (2)(a) of this section. (9) In establishing that actions and measures adopted under subsections (6) and (7) of this sec- tion demonstrably increase the likelihood of higher density residential development, the local gov- ernment shall at a minimum ensure that land zoned for needed housing is in locations appropriate for the housing types identified under subsection (3) of this section and is zoned at density ranges that are likely to be achieved by the housing market using the analysis in subsection (3) of this section. Actions or measures, or both, may include but are not limited to: (a) Increases in the permitted density on existing residential land; (b) Financial incentives for higher density housing; (c) Provisions permitting additional density beyond that generally allowed in the zoning district in exchange for amenities and features provided by the developer; (d) Removal or easing of approval standards or procedures; (e) Minimum density ranges; (f) Redevelopment and infill strategies; (g) Authorization of housing types not previously allowed by the plan or regulations; (h) Adoption of an average residential density standard; and (i) Rezoning or redesignation of nonresidential land. (10)(a) The provisions of this subsection apply to local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of less than 25,000. (b) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] As required under paragraph (c) of this subsection, a city shall, ac- cording to rules of the commission: (A) Determine the estimated housing needs within the jurisdiction for the next 20 years; (B) Inventory the supply of buildable lands available within the urban growth boundary to ac- commodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection; and (C) Adopt measures necessary to accommodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection. (c) The actions required under paragraph (b) of this subsection shall be undertaken: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 7 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 7 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 94 OF 136 (A) At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) On a schedule established by the commission for cities with a population greater than 10,000, not to exceed once each eight years; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the applica- tion of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. [(c)] (d) For the purpose of the inventory described in this subsection, "buildable lands" includes those lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. SECTION 8a. If House Bill 2001 becomes law, section 8 of this 2019 Act (amending ORS 197.296) is repealed and ORS 197.296, as amended by section 5, chapter , Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled House Bill 2001), is amended to read: 197.296. (1)(a) The provisions of subsections (2) to (9) of this section apply to metropolitan ser- vice district regional framework plans and local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of 25,000 or more. (b) The Land Conservation and Development Commission may establish a set of factors under which additional cities are subject to the provisions of this section. In establishing the set of factors required under this paragraph, the commission shall consider the size of the city, the rate of popu- lation growth of the city or the proximity of the city to another city with a population of 25,000 or more or to a metropolitan service district. (2)(a) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] A local government shall demonstrate that its comprehensive plan or regional framework plan pro- vides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years: (A) At periodic review under ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) As scheduled by the commission: (i) At least once each eight years for local governments that are not within a metropol- itan service district; or (ii) At least once each six years for a metropolitan service district; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide plan- ning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. (b) The 20-year period shall commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the [periodic or legislative] review under paragraph (a) of this subsection. (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. (4)(a) For the purpose of the inventory described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, "buildable lands" includes: (A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses under the existing planning or zoning; and (D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment. (b) For the purpose of the inventory and determination of housing capacity described in sub- section (3)(a) of this section, the local government must demonstrate consideration of: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 8 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 8 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 95 OF 136 (A) The extent that residential development is prohibited or restricted by local regulation and ordinance, state law and rule or federal statute and regulation; (B) A written long term contract or easement for radio, telecommunications or electrical facili- ties, if the written contract or easement is provided to the local government; and (C) The presence of a single family dwelling or other structure on a lot or parcel. (c) Except for land that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment, a local government shall create a map or document that may be used to verify and identify specific lots or parcels that have been determined to be buildable lands. (5)(a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) and (c) of this subsection, the determination of housing capacity pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section must be based on data relating to land within the urban growth boundary that has been collected since the last review [or six years, whichever is greater] under subsection (2)(a)(B) of this section. The data shall include: (A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development that have actually occurred; (B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development; (C) Market factors that may substantially impact future urban residential development; and (D) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred on the buildable lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. (b) A local government shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (c) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period longer than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the analysis of a wider ge- ographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more accurate, complete and reliable data relating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis performed pursuant to paragraph (a) of this subsection. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in a determination performed under this paragraph. (6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section, the local government shall take one or both of the following actions to accommodate the additional housing need: (a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, the local government shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public school districts and the local government that has the authority to approve the urban growth boundary. (b) Amend its comprehensive plan, regional framework plan, functional plan or land use regu- lations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential develop- ment will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without expansion of the urban growth boundary. A local government or metropolitan service district that takes this action shall adopt findings regarding the density expectations assumed to result from measures adopted under this paragraph based upon the factors listed in ORS 197.303 (2) and data in subsection (5)(a) of this section. The density expectations may not project an increase in resi- dential capacity above achieved density by more than three percent without quantifiable validation of such departures. For a local government located outside of a metropolitan service district, a quantifiable validation must demonstrate that the assumed housing capacity has been achieved in areas that are zoned to allow no greater than the same authorized density level within the local jurisdiction or a jurisdiction in the same region. For a metropolitan service district, a quantifiable validation must demonstrate that the assumed housing capacity has been achieved in areas that are Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 9 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 9 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 96 OF 136 zoned to allow no greater than the same authorized density level within the metropolitan service district. (c) As used in this subsection, "authorized density level" has the meaning given that term in ORS 227.175. (7) Using the housing need analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, the local government shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, the local government, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. (8)(a) A local government outside a metropolitan service district that takes any actions under subsection (6) or (7) of this section shall demonstrate that the comprehensive plan and land use regulations comply with goals and rules adopted by the commission and implement ORS 197.295 to 197.314. (b) A local government shall determine the density and mix of housing types anticipated as a result of actions taken under subsections (6) and (7) of this section and monitor and record the ac- tual density and mix of housing types achieved following the adoption of these actions. The local government shall compare actual and anticipated density and mix. The local government shall sub- mit its comparison to the commission at the next [periodic review or at the next legislative] review of its urban growth boundary[, whichever comes first] under subsection (2)(a) of this section. (9) In establishing that actions and measures adopted under subsections (6) and (7) of this sec- tion demonstrably increase the likelihood of higher density residential development, the local gov- ernment shall at a minimum ensure that land zoned for needed housing is in locations appropriate for the housing types identified under subsection (3) of this section, is zoned at density ranges that are likely to be achieved by the housing market using the analysis in subsection (3) of this section and is in areas where sufficient urban services are planned to enable the higher density development to occur over the 20-year period. Actions or measures, or both, may include but are not limited to: (a) Increases in the permitted density on existing residential land; (b) Financial incentives for higher density housing; (c) Provisions permitting additional density beyond that generally allowed in the zoning district in exchange for amenities and features provided by the developer; (d) Removal or easing of approval standards or procedures; (e) Minimum density ranges; (f) Redevelopment and infill strategies; (g) Authorization of housing types not previously allowed by the plan or regulations; (h) Adoption of an average residential density standard; and (i) Rezoning or redesignation of nonresidential land. (10)(a) The provisions of this subsection apply to local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of less than 25,000. (b) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] As required under paragraph (c) of this subsection, a city shall, ac- cording to rules of the commission: (A) Determine the estimated housing needs within the jurisdiction for the next 20 years; (B) Inventory the supply of buildable lands available within the urban growth boundary to ac- commodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection; and (C) Adopt measures necessary to accommodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 10 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 10 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 97 OF 136 (c) The actions required under paragraph (b) of this subsection shall be undertaken: (A) At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) On a schedule established by the commission for cities with a population greater than 10,000, not to exceed once each eight years; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the applica- tion of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. [(c)] (d) For the purpose of the inventory described in this subsection, "buildable lands" includes those lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. SECTION 9. ORS 197.299 is amended to read: 197.299. (1) A metropolitan service district organized under ORS chapter 268 shall complete the inventory, determination and analysis required under ORS 197.296 (3) not later than six years after completion of the previous inventory, determination and analysis. (2)(a) The metropolitan service district shall take such action as necessary under ORS 197.296 (6)(a) to accommodate one-half of a 20-year buildable land supply determined under ORS 197.296 (3) within one year of completing the analysis. (b) The metropolitan service district shall take all final action under ORS 197.296 (6)(a) neces- sary to accommodate a 20-year buildable land supply determined under ORS 197.296 (3) within two years of completing the analysis. (c) The metropolitan service district shall take action under ORS 197.296 (6)(b), within one year after the analysis required under ORS 197.296 (3)(b) is completed, to provide sufficient buildable land within the urban growth boundary to accommodate the estimated housing needs for 20 years from the time the actions are completed. (d) The metropolitan service district shall consider and adopt new measures that the governing body deems appropriate under ORS 197.296 (6)(b) and shall allocate any housing capacity that is not accommodated under this section to be accommodated by the application of ORS 197.296 (6)(b) by cities within the metropolitan service district with a population greater than 10,000. (e) Cities to which housing capacity is allocated under paragraph (d) of this subsection shall take steps, at least once every six years as scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development Commission, to demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential develop- ment will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years as required by ORS 197.296 (6)(b). (3) The [Land Conservation and Development] commission may grant an extension to the time limits of subsection (2) of this section if the Director of the Department of Land Conservation and Development determines that the metropolitan service district has provided good cause for failing to meet the time limits. (4)(a) The metropolitan service district shall establish a process to expand the urban growth boundary to accommodate a need for land for a public school that cannot reasonably be accommo- dated within the existing urban growth boundary. The metropolitan service district shall design the process to: (A) Accommodate a need that must be accommodated between periodic analyses of urban growth boundary capacity required by subsection (1) of this section; and (B) Provide for a final decision on a proposal to expand the urban growth boundary within four months after submission of a complete application by a large school district as defined in ORS 195.110. (b) At the request of a large school district, the metropolitan service district shall assist the large school district to identify school sites required by the school facility planning process de- scribed in ORS 195.110. A need for a public school is a specific type of identified land need under ORS 197.298 (3). (5) Three years after completing its most recent demonstration of sufficient buildable lands un- der ORS 197.296, a metropolitan service district may, on a single occasion, revise the determination Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 11 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 11 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 98 OF 136 and analysis required as part of the demonstration for the purpose of considering an amendment to the metropolitan service district's urban growth boundary, provided: (a) The metropolitan service district has entered into an intergovernmental agreement and has designated rural reserves and urban reserves under ORS 195.141 and 195.145 with each county lo- cated within the district; (b) The commission has acknowledged the rural reserve and urban reserve designations de- scribed in paragraph (a) of this subsection; (c) One or more cities within the metropolitan service district have proposed a development that would require expansion of the urban growth boundary; (d) The city or cities proposing the development have provided evidence to the metropolitan service district that the proposed development would provide additional needed housing to the needed housing included in the most recent determination and analysis; (e) The location chosen for the proposed development is adjacent to the city proposing the de- velopment; and (f) The location chosen for the proposed development is located within an area designated and acknowledged as an urban reserve. (6)(a) If a metropolitan service district, after revising its most recent determination and analysis pursuant to subsection (5) of this section, concludes that an expansion of its urban growth boundary is warranted, the metropolitan service district may take action to expand its urban growth boundary in one or more locations to accommodate the proposed development, provided the urban growth boundary expansion does not exceed a total of 1,000 acres. (b) A metropolitan service district that expands its urban growth boundary under this sub- section: (A) Must adopt the urban growth boundary expansion not more than four years after completing its most recent demonstration of sufficient buildable lands under ORS 197.296; and (B) Is exempt from the boundary location requirements described in the statewide land use planning goals relating to urbanization. SECTION 10. ORS 197.303 is amended to read: 197.303. (1) As used in ORS [197.307] 197.295 to 197.314, "needed housing" means all housing on land zoned for residential use or mixed residential and commercial use that is determined to meet the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at price ranges and rent levels that are affordable to households within the county with a variety of incomes, including but not limited to households with low incomes, very low incomes and extremely low incomes, as those terms are defined by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development under 42 U.S.C. 1437a. "Needed housing" includes the following housing types: (a) Attached and detached single-family housing and multiple family housing for both owner and renter occupancy; (b) Government assisted housing; (c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to 197.490; (d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family residential use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions; and (e) Housing for farmworkers. (2) Subsection (1)(a) and (d) of this section does not apply to: (a) A city with a population of less than 2,500. (b) A county with a population of less than 15,000. (3) A local government may take an exception under ORS 197.732 to the definition of "needed housing" in subsection (1) of this section in the same manner that an exception may be taken under the goals. SECTION 10a. If House Bill 2001 becomes law, section 10 of this 2019 Act (amending ORS 197.303) is repealed and ORS 197.303, as amended by section 6, chapter , Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled House Bill 2001), is amended to read: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 12 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 12 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 99 OF 136 197.303. (1) As used in ORS 197.295 to 197.314, "needed housing" means all housing on land zoned for residential use or mixed residential and commercial use that is determined to meet the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at price ranges and rent levels that are affordable to households within the county with a variety of incomes, including but not limited to households with low incomes, very low incomes and extremely low incomes, as those terms are de- fined by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development under 42 U.S.C. 1437a. "Needed housing" includes the following housing types: (a) Attached and detached single-family housing and multiple family housing for both owner and renter occupancy; (b) Government assisted housing; (c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to 197.490; (d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family residential use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions; and (e) Housing for farmworkers. (2) For the purpose of estimating housing needs, as described in ORS 197.296 (3)(b), a local government shall use the population projections prescribed by ORS 195.033 or 195.036 and shall consider and adopt findings related to changes in each of the following factors since the last [peri- odic or legislative review or six years, whichever is greater,] review under ORS 197.296 (2)(a)(B) and the projected future changes in these factors over a 20-year planning period: (a) Household sizes; (b) Household demographics [in terms of age, gender, race or other established demographic cate- gory]; (c) Household incomes; (d) Vacancy rates; and (e) Housing costs. (3) A local government shall make the estimate described in subsection (2) of this section using a shorter time period than since the last [periodic or legislative review or six years, whichever is greater,] review under ORS 197.296 (2)(a)(B) if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing need. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (4) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period longer than the time period described in subsection (2) of this section if the analysis of a wider geographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more accurate, complete and reliable data re- lating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis performed pursuant to subsection (2) of this section. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in an estimate performed under this subsection. (5) Subsection (1)(a) and (d) of this section does not apply to: (a) A city with a population of less than 2,500. (b) A county with a population of less than 15,000. (6) A local government may take an exception under ORS 197.732 to the definition of "needed housing" in subsection (1) of this section in the same manner that an exception may be taken under the goals. SECTION 11. ORS 197.319 is amended to read: 197.319. (1) Before a person may request adoption of an enforcement order under ORS 197.320, the person shall: (a) Present the reasons, in writing, for such an order to the affected local government; and (b) Request: (A) Revisions to the local comprehensive plan, land use regulations, special district cooperative or urban service agreement or decision-making process which is the basis for the order; or (B) That an action be taken regarding the local comprehensive plan, land use regulations, spe- cial district agreement, housing production strategy or decision-making process that is the basis for the order. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 13 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 13 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 100 OF 136 (2)(a) The local government or special district shall issue a written response to the request within 60 days of the date the request is mailed to the local government or special district. (b) The requestor and the local government or special district may enter into mediation to re- solve issues in the request. The Department of Land Conservation and Development shall provide mediation services when jointly requested by the local government or special district and the requestor. (c) If the local government or special district does not act in a manner which the requestor believes is adequate to address the issues raised in the request within the time period provided in paragraph (a) of this subsection, a petition may be presented to the Land Conservation and Devel- opment Commission under ORS 197.324. (3) A metropolitan service district may request an enforcement order under ORS 197.320 (12) without first complying with subsections (1) and (2) of this section. SECTION 12. ORS 197.320 is amended to read: 197.320. The Land Conservation and Development Commission shall issue an order requiring a local government, state agency or special district to take action necessary to bring its comprehen- sive plan, land use regulation, limited land use decisions or other land use decisions or actions into compliance with the goals, acknowledged comprehensive plan provisions, [or] land use regulations or housing production strategy if the commission has good cause to believe: (1) A comprehensive plan or land use regulation adopted by a local government not on a com- pliance schedule is not in compliance with the goals by the date set in ORS 197.245 or 197.250 for such compliance; (2) A plan, program, rule or regulation affecting land use adopted by a state agency or special district is not in compliance with the goals by the date set in ORS 197.245 or 197.250 for such compliance; (3) A local government is not making satisfactory progress toward performance of its compliance schedule; (4) A state agency is not making satisfactory progress in carrying out its coordination agree- ment or the requirements of ORS 197.180; (5) A local government has no comprehensive plan or land use regulation and is not on a com- pliance schedule directed to developing the plan or regulation; (6) A local government has engaged in a pattern or practice of decision making that violates an acknowledged comprehensive plan or land use regulation. In making its determination under this subsection, the commission shall determine whether there is evidence in the record to support the decisions made. The commission shall not judge the issue solely upon adequacy of the findings in support of the decisions; (7) A local government has failed to comply with a commission order entered under ORS 197.644; (8) A special district has engaged in a pattern or practice of decision-making that violates an acknowledged comprehensive plan or cooperative agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 197.020; (9) A special district is not making satisfactory progress toward performance of its obligations under ORS chapters 195 and 197; (10) A local government's approval standards, special conditions on approval of specific devel- opment proposals or procedures for approval do not comply with ORS 197.307 (4) or (6); (11) A local government is not making satisfactory progress toward meeting its obligations un- der ORS 195.065; [or] (12) A local government within the jurisdiction of a metropolitan service district has failed to make changes to the comprehensive plan or land use regulations to comply with the regional framework plan of the district or has engaged in a pattern or practice of decision-making that vio- lates a requirement of the regional framework plan[.]; or (13) A city is not making satisfactory progress in taking actions listed in its housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 13. Section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, is amended to read: Sec. 1. (1) For purposes of this section: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 14 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 14 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 101 OF 136 (a) A household is severely rent burdened if the household spends more than 50 percent of the income of the household on gross rent for housing. (b) A regulated affordable unit is a residential unit subject to a regulatory agreement that runs with the land and that requires affordability for an established income level for a defined period of time. (c) A single-family unit may be rented or owned by a household and includes single-family homes, duplexes, townhomes, row homes and mobile homes. (2)(a) The Housing and Community Services Department shall annually provide to the governing body of each city in this state with a population greater than 10,000 the most current data available from the United States Census Bureau, or any other source the department considers at least as reliable, showing the percentage of renter households in the city that are severely rent burdened. (b) [The Housing and Community Services Department, in collaboration with] The Department of Land Conservation and Development, in consultation with the Housing and Community Services Department, shall develop a survey form on which the governing body of a city may provide spe- cific information related to the affordability of housing within the city, including[, but not limited to:] [(A)] the actions relating to land use and other related matters that the [governing body] city has taken to encourage the development of needed housing, increase the affordability of housing and reduce rent burdens for severely rent burdened households[; and]. [(B) The additional actions the governing body intends to take to reduce rent burdens for severely rent burdened households.] (c) [If the Housing and Community Services Department determines that at least 25 percent of the renter households in a city are severely rent burdened,] The Department of Land Conservation and Development shall provide the governing body of the city with the survey form developed pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. (d) The governing body of the city shall return the completed survey form to the [Housing and Community Services Department and the] Department of Land Conservation and Development [within 60 days of receipt] at least 24 months prior to a deadline for completing a housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act. (3)(a) In any year in which the governing body of a city is informed under this section that at least 25 percent of the renter households in the city are severely rent burdened, the governing body shall hold at least one public meeting to discuss the causes and consequences of severe rent burdens within the city, the barriers to reducing rent burdens and possible solutions. (b) The Housing and Community Services Department may adopt rules governing the conduct of the public meeting required under this subsection. (4) No later than February 1 of each year, the governing body of each city in this state with a population greater than 10,000 shall submit to the Department of Land Conservation and Develop- ment a report for the immediately preceding calendar year setting forth separately for each of the following categories the total number of units that were permitted and the total number that were produced: (a) Residential units. (b) Regulated affordable residential units. (c) Multifamily residential units. (d) Regulated affordable multifamily residential units. (e) Single-family units. (f) Regulated affordable single-family units. SECTION 14. Section 15 of this 2019 Act is added to and made a part of ORS chapter 197. SECTION 15. (1) As used in this section, "public property" means all real property of the state, counties, cities, incorporated towns or villages, school districts, irrigation districts, drainage districts, ports, water districts, service districts, metropolitan service districts, housing authorities, public universities listed in ORS 352.002 or all other public or municipal corporations in this state. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 15 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 15 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 102 OF 136 (2) Notwithstanding any land use regulation, comprehensive plan, or statewide land use planning goal, a local government may allow the development of housing on public property provided: (a) The real property is not inventoried as a park or open space as a protective measure pursuant to a statewide land use planning goal; (b) The real property is located within the urban growth boundary; (c) The real property is zoned for residential development or adjacent to parcels zoned for residential development; (d) The housing complies with applicable land use regulations and meets the standards and criteria for residential development for the underlying zone of the land or the adjacent residential land described in paragraph (c) of this subsection; (e) At least 50 percent of the residential units provided under this section is affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the area median income, as defined in ORS 456.270; and (f) The affordability of the residential units described in paragraph (e) of this subsection is subject to an affordable housing covenant, as described in ORS 456.270 to 456.295, held by the local government or the Housing and Community Services Department and with a dura- tion of no less than 60 years. (3) Notwithstanding any statewide land use planning goal, a local government may amend its comprehensive plan and land use regulations to allow public property to be used for the purposes described in subsection (2) of this section. SECTION 16. Notwithstanding ORS 197.646, a local government required to comply with the amendments to ORS 197.312 by section 6, chapter 745, Oregon Laws 2017, shall adopt land use regulations, or adopt amendments to its comprehensive plan, to comply with the amendments to ORS 197.312 by section 6, chapter 745, Oregon Laws 2017, no later than the effective date of this 2019 Act. SECTION 17. ORS 215.416 is amended to read: 215.416. (1) When required or authorized by the ordinances, rules and regulations of a county, an owner of land may apply in writing to such persons as the governing body designates, for a permit, in the manner prescribed by the governing body. The governing body shall establish fees charged for processing permits at an amount no more than the actual or average cost of providing that service. (2) The governing body shall establish a consolidated procedure by which an applicant may ap- ply at one time for all permits or zone changes needed for a development project. The consolidated procedure shall be subject to the time limitations set out in ORS 215.427. The consolidated proce- dure shall be available for use at the option of the applicant no later than the time of the first pe- riodic review of the comprehensive plan and land use regulations. (3) Except as provided in subsection (11) of this section, the hearings officer shall hold at least one public hearing on the application. (4)(a) A county may not approve an application if the proposed use of land is found to be in conflict with the comprehensive plan of the county and other applicable land use regulation or or- dinance provisions. The approval may include such conditions as are authorized by statute or county legislation. (b)(A) A county may not deny an application for a housing development located within the urban growth boundary if the development complies with clear and objective standards, including but not limited to clear and objective design standards contained in the county comprehensive plan or land use regulations. (B) This paragraph does not apply to: (i) Applications or permits for residential development in areas described in ORS 197.307 (5); or (ii) Applications or permits reviewed under an alternative approval process adopted under ORS 197.307 (6). Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 16 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 16 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 103 OF 136 (c) A county may not [reduce the density of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density if: (A) The density applied for is at or below the authorized density level under the local land use regulations; and (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing. (d) A county may not [reduce the height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in height if: (A) The height applied for is at or below the authorized height level under the local land use regulations; (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing; and (C) Reducing the height has the effect of reducing the authorized density level under local land use regulations. (e) Notwithstanding paragraphs (c) and (d) of this subsection, a county may [reduce the density or height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density or height only if the reduction is necessary to resolve a health, safety or habitability issue or to comply with a protective measure adopted pursuant to a statewide land use planning goal. Notwithstanding ORS 197.350, the county must adopt findings supported by substantial evi- dence demonstrating the necessity of the reduction. (f) As used in this subsection: (A) "Authorized density level" means the maximum number of lots or dwelling units or the maximum floor area ratio that is permitted under local land use regulations. (B) "Authorized height level" means the maximum height of a structure that is permitted under local land use regulations. (C) "Habitability" means being in compliance with the applicable provisions of the state building code under ORS chapter 455 and the rules adopted thereunder. (5) Hearings under this section shall be held only after notice to the applicant and also notice to other persons as otherwise provided by law and shall otherwise be conducted in conformance with the provisions of ORS 197.763. (6) Notice of a public hearing on an application submitted under this section shall be provided to the owner of an airport defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation as a "public use airport" if: (a) The name and address of the airport owner has been provided by the Oregon Department of Aviation to the county planning authority; and (b) The property subject to the land use hearing is: (A) Within 5,000 feet of the side or end of a runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be a "visual airport"; or (B) Within 10,000 feet of the side or end of the runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be an "instrument airport." (7) Notwithstanding the provisions of subsection (6) of this section, notice of a land use hearing need not be provided as set forth in subsection (6) of this section if the zoning permit would only allow a structure less than 35 feet in height and the property is located outside the runway "ap- proach surface" as defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation. (8)(a) Approval or denial of a permit application shall be based on standards and criteria which shall be set forth in the zoning ordinance or other appropriate ordinance or regulation of the county and which shall relate approval or denial of a permit application to the zoning ordinance and com- prehensive plan for the area in which the proposed use of land would occur and to the zoning or- dinance and comprehensive plan for the county as a whole. (b) When an ordinance establishing approval standards is required under ORS 197.307 to provide only clear and objective standards, the standards must be clear and objective on the face of the ordinance. (9) Approval or denial of a permit or expedited land division shall be based upon and accompa- nied by a brief statement that explains the criteria and standards considered relevant to the deci- Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 17 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 17 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 104 OF 136 sion, states the facts relied upon in rendering the decision and explains the justification for the decision based on the criteria, standards and facts set forth. (10) Written notice of the approval or denial shall be given to all parties to the proceeding. (11)(a)(A) The hearings officer or such other person as the governing body designates may ap- prove or deny an application for a permit without a hearing if the hearings officer or other desig- nated person gives notice of the decision and provides an opportunity for any person who is adversely affected or aggrieved, or who is entitled to notice under paragraph (c) of this subsection, to file an appeal. (B) Written notice of the decision shall be mailed to those persons described in paragraph (c) of this subsection. (C) Notice under this subsection shall comply with ORS 197.763 (3)(a), (c), (g) and (h) and shall describe the nature of the decision. In addition, the notice shall state that any person who is ad- versely affected or aggrieved or who is entitled to written notice under paragraph (c) of this sub- section may appeal the decision by filing a written appeal in the manner and within the time period provided in the county's land use regulations. A county may not establish an appeal period that is less than 12 days from the date the written notice of decision required by this subsection was mailed. The notice shall state that the decision will not become final until the period for filing a local appeal has expired. The notice also shall state that a person who is mailed written notice of the decision cannot appeal the decision directly to the Land Use Board of Appeals under ORS 197.830. (D) An appeal from a hearings officer's decision made without hearing under this subsection shall be to the planning commission or governing body of the county. An appeal from such other person as the governing body designates shall be to a hearings officer, the planning commission or the governing body. In either case, the appeal shall be to a de novo hearing. (E) The de novo hearing required by subparagraph (D) of this paragraph shall be the initial evidentiary hearing required under ORS 197.763 as the basis for an appeal to the Land Use Board of Appeals. At the de novo hearing: (i) The applicant and other parties shall have the same opportunity to present testimony, argu- ments and evidence as they would have had in a hearing under subsection (3) of this section before the decision; (ii) The presentation of testimony, arguments and evidence shall not be limited to issues raised in a notice of appeal; and (iii) The decision maker shall consider all relevant testimony, arguments and evidence that are accepted at the hearing. (b) If a local government provides only a notice of the opportunity to request a hearing, the local government may charge a fee for the initial hearing. The maximum fee for an initial hearing shall be the cost to the local government of preparing for and conducting the appeal, or $250, whichever is less. If an appellant prevails at the hearing or upon subsequent appeal, the fee for the initial hearing shall be refunded. The fee allowed in this paragraph shall not apply to appeals made by neighborhood or community organizations recognized by the governing body and whose bounda- ries include the site. (c)(A) Notice of a decision under paragraph (a) of this subsection shall be provided to the ap- plicant and to the owners of record of property on the most recent property tax assessment roll where such property is located: (i) Within 100 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is wholly or in part within an urban growth boundary; (ii) Within 250 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is outside an urban growth boundary and not within a farm or forest zone; or (iii) Within 750 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is within a farm or forest zone. (B) Notice shall also be provided to any neighborhood or community organization recognized by the governing body and whose boundaries include the site. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 18 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 18 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 105 OF 136 (C) At the discretion of the applicant, the local government also shall provide notice to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. (12) A decision described in ORS 215.402 (4)(b) shall: (a) Be entered in a registry available to the public setting forth: (A) The street address or other easily understood geographic reference to the subject property; (B) The date of the decision; and (C) A description of the decision made. (b) Be subject to the jurisdiction of the Land Use Board of Appeals in the same manner as a limited land use decision. (c) Be subject to the appeal period described in ORS 197.830 (5)(b). (13) At the option of the applicant, the local government shall provide notice of the decision described in ORS 215.402 (4)(b) in the manner required by ORS 197.763 (2), in which case an appeal to the board shall be filed within 21 days of the decision. The notice shall include an explanation of appeal rights. (14) Notwithstanding the requirements of this section, a limited land use decision shall be sub- ject to the requirements set forth in ORS 197.195 and 197.828. SECTION 18. ORS 227.175 is amended to read: 227.175. (1) When required or authorized by a city, an owner of land may apply in writing to the hearings officer, or such other person as the city council designates, for a permit or zone change, upon such forms and in such a manner as the city council prescribes. The governing body shall es- tablish fees charged for processing permits at an amount no more than the actual or average cost of providing that service. (2) The governing body of the city shall establish a consolidated procedure by which an appli- cant may apply at one time for all permits or zone changes needed for a development project. The consolidated procedure shall be subject to the time limitations set out in ORS 227.178. The consol- idated procedure shall be available for use at the option of the applicant no later than the time of the first periodic review of the comprehensive plan and land use regulations. (3) Except as provided in subsection (10) of this section, the hearings officer shall hold at least one public hearing on the application. (4)(a) A city may not approve an application unless the proposed development of land would be in compliance with the comprehensive plan for the city and other applicable land use regulation or ordinance provisions. The approval may include such conditions as are authorized by ORS 227.215 or any city legislation. (b)(A) A city may not deny an application for a housing development located within the urban growth boundary if the development complies with clear and objective standards, including [but not limited to] clear and objective design standards contained in the city comprehensive plan or land use regulations. (B) This paragraph does not apply to: (i) Applications or permits for residential development in areas described in ORS 197.307 (5); or (ii) Applications or permits reviewed under an alternative approval process adopted under ORS 197.307 (6). (c) A city may not [reduce the density of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density if: (A) The density applied for is at or below the authorized density level under the local land use regulations; and (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing. (d) A city may not [reduce the height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in height if: (A) The height applied for is at or below the authorized height level under the local land use regulations; (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing; and Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 19 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 19 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 106 OF 136 (C) Reducing the height has the effect of reducing the authorized density level under local land use regulations. (e) Notwithstanding paragraphs (c) and (d) of this subsection, a city may [reduce the density or height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density or height only if the reduction is necessary to resolve a health, safety or habitability issue or to comply with a protective measure adopted pursuant to a statewide land use planning goal. Notwithstanding ORS 197.350, the city must adopt findings supported by substantial evidence demonstrating the necessity of the reduction. (f) As used in this subsection: (A) "Authorized density level" means the maximum number of lots or dwelling units or the maximum floor area ratio that is permitted under local land use regulations. (B) "Authorized height level" means the maximum height of a structure that is permitted under local land use regulations. (C) "Habitability" means being in compliance with the applicable provisions of the state building code under ORS chapter 455 and the rules adopted thereunder. (5) Hearings under this section may be held only after notice to the applicant and other inter- ested persons and shall otherwise be conducted in conformance with the provisions of ORS 197.763. (6) Notice of a public hearing on a zone use application shall be provided to the owner of an airport, defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation as a "public use airport" if: (a) The name and address of the airport owner has been provided by the Oregon Department of Aviation to the city planning authority; and (b) The property subject to the zone use hearing is: (A) Within 5,000 feet of the side or end of a runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be a "visual airport"; or (B) Within 10,000 feet of the side or end of the runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be an "instrument airport." (7) Notwithstanding the provisions of subsection (6) of this section, notice of a zone use hearing need only be provided as set forth in subsection (6) of this section if the permit or zone change would only allow a structure less than 35 feet in height and the property is located outside of the runway "approach surface" as defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation. (8) If an application would change the zone of property that includes all or part of a mobile home or manufactured dwelling park as defined in ORS 446.003, the governing body shall give written notice by first class mail to each existing mailing address for tenants of the mobile home or manufactured dwelling park at least 20 days but not more than 40 days before the date of the first hearing on the application. The governing body may require an applicant for such a zone change to pay the costs of such notice. (9) The failure of a tenant or an airport owner to receive a notice which was mailed shall not invalidate any zone change. (10)(a)(A) The hearings officer or such other person as the governing body designates may ap- prove or deny an application for a permit without a hearing if the hearings officer or other desig- nated person gives notice of the decision and provides an opportunity for any person who is adversely affected or aggrieved, or who is entitled to notice under paragraph (c) of this subsection, to file an appeal. (B) Written notice of the decision shall be mailed to those persons described in paragraph (c) of this subsection. (C) Notice under this subsection shall comply with ORS 197.763 (3)(a), (c), (g) and (h) and shall describe the nature of the decision. In addition, the notice shall state that any person who is ad- versely affected or aggrieved or who is entitled to written notice under paragraph (c) of this sub- section may appeal the decision by filing a written appeal in the manner and within the time period provided in the city's land use regulations. A city may not establish an appeal period that is less than 12 days from the date the written notice of decision required by this subsection was mailed. The notice shall state that the decision will not become final until the period for filing a local ap- Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 20 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 20 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 107 OF 136 peal has expired. The notice also shall state that a person who is mailed written notice of the de- cision cannot appeal the decision directly to the Land Use Board of Appeals under ORS 197.830. (D) An appeal from a hearings officer's decision made without hearing under this subsection shall be to the planning commission or governing body of the city. An appeal from such other person as the governing body designates shall be to a hearings officer, the planning commission or the governing body. In either case, the appeal shall be to a de novo hearing. (E) The de novo hearing required by subparagraph (D) of this paragraph shall be the initial evidentiary hearing required under ORS 197.763 as the basis for an appeal to the Land Use Board of Appeals. At the de novo hearing: (i) The applicant and other parties shall have the same opportunity to present testimony, argu- ments and evidence as they would have had in a hearing under subsection (3) of this section before the decision; (ii) The presentation of testimony, arguments and evidence shall not be limited to issues raised in a notice of appeal; and (iii) The decision maker shall consider all relevant testimony, arguments and evidence that are accepted at the hearing. (b) If a local government provides only a notice of the opportunity to request a hearing, the local government may charge a fee for the initial hearing. The maximum fee for an initial hearing shall be the cost to the local government of preparing for and conducting the appeal, or $250, whichever is less. If an appellant prevails at the hearing or upon subsequent appeal, the fee for the initial hearing shall be refunded. The fee allowed in this paragraph shall not apply to appeals made by neighborhood or community organizations recognized by the governing body and whose bounda- ries include the site. (c)(A) Notice of a decision under paragraph (a) of this subsection shall be provided to the ap- plicant and to the owners of record of property on the most recent property tax assessment roll where such property is located: (i) Within 100 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is wholly or in part within an urban growth boundary; (ii) Within 250 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is outside an urban growth boundary and not within a farm or forest zone; or (iii) Within 750 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is within a farm or forest zone. (B) Notice shall also be provided to any neighborhood or community organization recognized by the governing body and whose boundaries include the site. (C) At the discretion of the applicant, the local government also shall provide notice to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. (11) A decision described in ORS 227.160 (2)(b) shall: (a) Be entered in a registry available to the public setting forth: (A) The street address or other easily understood geographic reference to the subject property; (B) The date of the decision; and (C) A description of the decision made. (b) Be subject to the jurisdiction of the Land Use Board of Appeals in the same manner as a limited land use decision. (c) Be subject to the appeal period described in ORS 197.830 (5)(b). (12) At the option of the applicant, the local government shall provide notice of the decision described in ORS 227.160 (2)(b) in the manner required by ORS 197.763 (2), in which case an appeal to the board shall be filed within 21 days of the decision. The notice shall include an explanation of appeal rights. (13) Notwithstanding other requirements of this section, limited land use decisions shall be subject to the requirements set forth in ORS 197.195 and 197.828. SECTION 19. ORS 215.441 is amended to read: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 21 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 21 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 108 OF 136 215.441. (1) If a church, synagogue, temple, mosque, chapel, meeting house or other nonresiden- tial place of worship is allowed on real property under state law and rules and local zoning ordi- nances and regulations, a county shall allow the reasonable use of the real property for activities customarily associated with the practices of the religious activity, including: (a) Worship services. (b) Religion classes. (c) Weddings. (d) Funerals. (e) Meal programs. (f) Child care, but not including private or parochial school education for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education. (g) Providing housing or space for housing in a building or buildings that [is] are detached from the place of worship, provided: (A) At least 50 percent of the residential units provided under this paragraph are affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located; (B) The real property is in an area zoned for residential use that is located within the urban growth boundary; and (C) The housing or space for housing complies with applicable land use regulations and meets the standards and criteria for residential development for the underlying zone. (2) A county may: (a) Subject real property described in subsection (1) of this section to reasonable regulations, including site review or design review, concerning the physical characteristics of the uses author- ized under subsection (1) of this section; or (b) Prohibit or restrict the use of real property by a place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section if the county finds that the level of service of public facilities, including trans- portation, water supply, sewer and storm drain systems is not adequate to serve the place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section. (3) Notwithstanding any other provision of this section, a county may allow a private or paro- chial school for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education to be sited under applicable state law and rules and local zoning ordinances and regulations. (4) Housing and space for housing provided under subsection (1)(g) of this section must be sub- ject to a covenant appurtenant that restricts the owner and each successive owner of [the] a build- ing or any residential unit contained in [the] a building from selling or renting any residential unit described in subsection (1)(g)(A) of this section as housing that is not affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located for a period of 60 years from the date of the certificate of occupancy. SECTION 20. ORS 227.500 is amended to read: 227.500. (1) If a church, synagogue, temple, mosque, chapel, meeting house or other nonresiden- tial place of worship is allowed on real property under state law and rules and local zoning ordi- nances and regulations, a city shall allow the reasonable use of the real property for activities customarily associated with the practices of the religious activity, including: (a) Worship services. (b) Religion classes. (c) Weddings. (d) Funerals. (e) Meal programs. (f) Child care, but not including private or parochial school education for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education. (g) Providing housing or space for housing in a building or buildings that [is] are detached from the place of worship, provided: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 22 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 22 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 109 OF 136 (A) At least 50 percent of the residential units provided under this paragraph are affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located; (B) The real property is in an area zoned for residential use that is located within the urban growth boundary; and (C) The housing or space for housing complies with applicable land use regulations and meets the standards and criteria for residential development for the underlying zone. (2) A city may: (a) Subject real property described in subsection (1) of this section to reasonable regulations, including site review and design review, concerning the physical characteristics of the uses au- thorized under subsection (1) of this section; or (b) Prohibit or regulate the use of real property by a place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section if the city finds that the level of service of public facilities, including transporta- tion, water supply, sewer and storm drain systems is not adequate to serve the place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section. (3) Notwithstanding any other provision of this section, a city may allow a private or parochial school for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education to be sited under applicable state law and rules and local zoning ordinances and regulations. (4) Housing and space for housing provided under subsection (1)(g) of this section must be sub- ject to a covenant appurtenant that restricts the owner and each successive owner of [the] a build- ing or any residential unit contained in [the] a building from selling or renting any residential unit described in subsection (1)(g)(A) of this section as housing that is not affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located for a period of 60 years from the date of the certificate of occupancy. SECTION 21. ORS 455.062 is amended to read: 455.062. (1) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee acting within the scope of that employment may provide typical plans and specifications: (a) For structures of a type for which the provision of plans or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the application of ORS 672.002 to 672.325; and (b) Notwithstanding ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and 672.002 to 672.325, for structures that are metal or wood frame Use and Occupancy Classification Group U structures under the structural specialty code. (2) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee, who is licensed or reg- istered under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325, who is acting within the scope of that employment and who is providing typical plans and specifications under subsection (1) of this section, is not required to seal or sign the typical plans and specifications and is not subject to disciplinary action under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 based on providing those typical plans and specifications. [(2)] (3) A building official or inspector, as those terms are defined in ORS 455.715, when acting within the scope of direct employment by a municipality, may provide typical plans and specifica- tions for structures of a type for which the provision of plans or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the application of ORS 672.002 to 672.325. [(3)] This [section] subsection does not alter any applicable requirement under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 regarding stamps and seals for a set of plans for a structure. SECTION 21a. If Senate Bill 39 becomes law, ORS 455.062, as amended by section 2, chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39), and section 21 of this 2019 Act, is amended to read: 455.062. (1) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee acting within the scope of that employment may provide typical drawings and specifications: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 23 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 23 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 110 OF 136 (a) For structures of a type for which the provision of drawings or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the registration requirements of ORS 672.002 to 672.325; and (b) Notwithstanding ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and 672.002 to 672.325, for structures that are metal or wood frame Use and Occupancy Classification Group U structures under the structural specialty code. (2) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee, who is licensed or registered under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325, who is acting within the scope of that employ- ment and who is providing typical [plans] drawings and specifications under subsection (1) of this section, is not required to seal or sign the typical [plans] drawings and specifications and is not subject to disciplinary action under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 based on providing those typical [plans] drawings and specifications. (3) A building official or inspector, as those terms are defined in ORS 455.715, when acting within the scope of direct employment by a municipality, may provide typical drawings or specifi- cations for structures of a type for which the provision of drawings or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the registration requirements of ORS 672.002 to 672.325. This subsection does not alter any applicable requirement under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 regarding stamps and seals for a set of plans for a structure. SECTION 21b. If Senate Bill 39 becomes law, section 3, chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39), is amended to read: Sec. 3. The amendments to ORS 455.062 and 672.060 by sections 1 and 2 [of this 2019 Act], chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39), and section 21a of this 2019 Act apply to work performed, and offers made, on or after the effective date of [this 2019 Act] chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39). SECTION 22. In addition to and not in lieu of any other appropriation, there is appro- priated to the Department of Land Conservation and Development, for the biennium begin- ning July 1, 2019, out of the General Fund, the amount of $1,000,000, to provide technical assistance to local governments to implement sections 4 to 6 and 15 of this 2019 Act and the amendments to ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319, 197.320, 215.416, 215.441, 227.175 and 227.500 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, by sections 8 to 13 and 17 to 20 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 23. In addition to and not in lieu of any other appropriation, there is appro- priated to the Housing and Community Services Department, for the biennium beginning July 1, 2019, out of the General Fund, the amount of $655,274, for research, administration and reporting that relate to a regional housing needs analysis described in section 1 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 24. (1) Sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act and the amendments to ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319 and 197.320 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, by sections 8 to 13 of this 2019 Act become operative on January 1, 2020. (2) The Land Conservation and Development Commission, the Department of Land Con- servation and Development and the Housing and Community Services Department may take any action before the operative date specified in subsection (1) of this section that is neces- sary for the departments and the commission to exercise, on or after the operative date specified in subsection (1) of this section, all of the duties, functions and powers conferred on the departments and the commission by sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act and the amend- ments to ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319, 197.320 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, by sections 8 to 13 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 25. This 2019 Act being necessary for the immediate preservation of the public peace, health and safety, an emergency is declared to exist, and this 2019 Act takes effect on its passage. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 24 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 24 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 111 OF 136 Passed by House June 26, 2019 Received by Governor: M., , 2019 Timothy G. Sekerak, Chief Clerk of House Approved: M., , 2019 Tina Kotek, Speaker of House Kate Brown, Governor Passed by Senate June 30, 2019 Filed in Office of Secretary of State: M., , 2019 Peter Courtney, President of Senate Bev Clarno, Secretary of State Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 25 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 25 OF 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 112 OF 136 Housing Production Strategies Open Forum (14...., February 23, 2021 Question and Answer Written Response D L C D (Published March 10, 2021) Open Forum Attendees • Allan Lazo—FHCO • Karen Fox—City of • Ricky Hoffman—City • Arini Farrell—City of Tualatin of Roseburg Troutdale • Karen Swirsky—City • Ryan Potter—City of • Brian Martin—City of of Bend Canby Beaverton • Kate Srinivasan - • Stuart Cowie—City • Clint Spencer—City OHCS of Roseburg of Hermiston • Kim Armstrong— • Holly Kerns—City of • Colin Cortes—City of Washington County Gladstone Woodburn • Kim Rybold—City of • Kalli Light • Dan Handel—City of Wilsonville • Victor Tran— Woodburn • Laura Terway—City Cascadia Partners • Daniel Riordan—City of Oregon City • DLCD Staff: Gordon of Forest Grove • Lydia Ness— Howard, Ethan • Don Hardy—City of Cascadia Partners Stuckmayer, Robert Canby • Mac Corthell Mansolillo, Sean • Emily Meharg—City • Mary Kyle McCurdy— Edging, Samuel De of Sandy 1000 Friends of Perio Garcia,Jennifer • Jamin Kimmell— Oregon Donnelly, Kevin Cascadia Partners • Matthew Hastie— Young • Jason Yaich—City of Angelo Planning Corvallis Group • Joel Madsen—Mid- • Michael Boquist— Columbia Housing City of La Grande Authority Staff Presentation and Common Questions Housing Production Strategy Q 1: What is a Housing Production Strategy? A: A new state requirement under HB 2003 for cities above 10,000. This report must be completed one year after an HNA deadline and outlines strategies that a city will adopt to promote the development of needed housing identified in the HNA. Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Written Responses 1 Updated March 10, 2021 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 1 OF 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 113 OF 136 Q 2: What are the components of an HPS? A: There are five major components of an HPS: 1. Contextualized Housing Need • Socio-economic and demographic trends • Existing adopted measures • Market conditions • Barriers to housing • Housing needs of BIPOC, people experiencing homelessness, people with a disability, and state and federal protected classes 2. Engagement • Consumers of Needed Housing • Producers of Needed Housing • Summary of engagement, why stakeholders were engaged, and how engagement influenced adopted strategies 3. Strategies to Meet Future Housing Need—A list of possible strategies to consider is included as an attachment in OAR 660-008-0050 • Description of strategy • Timeline for adoption • Timeline for implementation • Expected magnitude of impact o Housing need addressed o Estimated#of units expected o Benefits and burdens analysis 4. Achieving Fair and Equitable Housing Outcomes • Location/Transportation • Fair Housing • Housing Choice • Homelessness • Opportunities for Affordable Rental Housing and Homeownership • Gentrification, Displacement, and Housing Stability 5. Conclusion Q 3:Are there other requirements associated with an HPS? A: Yes, cities are required to report at the mid-cycle of an HPS(i.e. three or four years after adoption of an HPS)summarizing the progress a city has made in implementing strategies and reflecting on fair and equitable housing outcomes. Q 4: What is needed to develop an HPS that sufficiently addresses need? A: Department staff and the Land Conservation and Development Commission will take a variety of factors into account, including: o Unmet housing need Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Written Responses 2 Updated March 10, 2021 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 2 OF 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 114 OF 136 o Percentage of severely rent-burdened households o Recent housing development o Addressing homelessness o Implementation progress of HPS strategies o Elimination of housing barriers Q 5: How will the Department enforce the Housing Production Strategy Program? A: There are two "tracks"of enforcement for the Housing Production Strategy Program. First, there are rule provisions for compliance if a city does not adopt an HNA/HPS in a timely manner. Second, there are separate rule provisions for compliance if a city fails to adopt and implement the specific strategies identified in the HPS in a timely manner. Both enforcement tracks prioritize department collaboration with cities assist their participation in the program including providing technical or financial assistance to bring them into compliance before punitive enforcement measures. Open Question and Answer Session Q 6:Are there jurisdictions that have completed their Housing Needs Analysis that could be used as a reference template for other cities? A: Yes. The Housing Needs Analysis portion of the Oregon Housing Planning Framework not changed with HB 2003. There are prototype Housing Production Strategies underway at the current moment, including La Grande, Medford, and Tualatin. They will be available when the projects are completed by June 30, 2021. Q 7: If a City is currently conducting a Housing Needs Analysis and expecting adoption by this June,will they also be subject to the requirement to finish their HPS within a year after that? A: The schedule that has been published per HB 2003 requirements, begins with the first HNA adopted in 2022. The Housing Production Strategy is tied to that deadline. If a City has a deadline of 2022, but updates their HNA prior to that time, they "reset"their timeline. If a City adopts an HNA prior to a 2022 deadline, they are not required to conduct a Housing Production Strategy in conjunction with that "early"HNA. That said, nothing prohibits a City from conducting an HPS with that HNA. Q 8: If a city adopts an HNA by June 30 of this year, what is the earliest they would need to adopt an HPS? A: HB 2003 states that the first Housing Production Strategy cannot be required until 2023.A Metro City that adopts an HNA in 2021, which is before the beginning of the HNA calendar, would "reset"their HNA/HPS schedule. Their next HNA deadline would be six years later(2027) and their first required HPS deadline would be (2028). For a Non-Metro City the cycle is every eight years instead of six years. Q 9: How specific must each strategy need to be in the HPS report? Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Written Responses 3 Updated March 10, 2021 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 3 OF 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 115 OF 136 A: The HPS Program is structured around the City's identified housing need. It is up to the city to determine what specific strategies they are proposing to accommodate the entire housing need identified in their HNA. The City must include the following information for each proposed strategy: • A Description of strategy • Anticipated Timeline for Strategy Adoption • Anticipated Timeline for Strategy Implementation • Expected Magnitude of Impact of the Strategy including: o Identifying the specific housing need the strategy addresses o Estimated number of units produced by the strategy o An analysis of the strategies expected burdens and benefits on protected classes The city needs to show that the sum of all the proposed strategies is an appropriate set of actions to address the housing need identified in the HNA. Additionally, Cities will be required to respond to a series of six questions to better understand the implications of proposed strategies on the location of housing in relation to transportation options, Fair Housing, housing choice, homelessness, affordable rental housing and homeownership, and gentrification, displacement, and housing stability. Q 10: Does compliance with strategy implementation need to be demonstrated qualitatively or quantitatively? A:A combination of quantitative and qualitative factors. If there is an opportunity to show quantitative analysis (e.g. an affordable housing bond), then it is more important to show qualitative progress towards a proposed strategy. However, the Department understands that many strategies do not lend themselves well to quantification, such as how many new dwelling units might be produced as a result of SDC reductions. In these cases, a qualitative assessment of progress is appropriate and sufficient(i.e. the city has waived SDCs for subsidized affordable housing developments). Q 11:You mention Portland State University researchers are working on an anti-displacement toolkit. What is the timeframe for that?Will there be any drafts available to review in the near term? A: The anti-displacement toolkit will be completed before June 30, 2021. There will also be opportunities to review draft versions of the toolkit much earlier—primarily as part of the March and May 2021 Land Conservation and Development Commission meetings. The project team has developed a draft methodology and preliminary findings of the toolkit and has put together two test cases in the City of Tigard and Hermiston. Q 12: Can you cover what types of financial assistance resources are/will be available to help cities comply? A: House Bill 2003 allocated$1m in the 2019-2021 biennium, and those projects are in progress today. There is conversation at the Legislature to continue this work for cities into the 2021-2023 Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Written Responses 4 Updated March 10, 2021 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 4 OF 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 116 OF 136 biennium. The Governor's Recommended Budget included extending funding to cities below 10,000. The Legislature will make the final decision and it is currently unclear if the Legislature will continue that funding. Q 13: How is the state measuring compliance with the HPS? Do cities send a draft to the state? A: The HNA is adopted at the local level. There is no requirement to formally adopt an HPS as an amendment to the comprehensive plan. However, it is a state requirement that must be submitted to the Department by the established deadline. The Department will then review City submittals based on criteria outlined in administrative rule to approve, approve with conditions, or remand the Housing Production Strategy. Q 14:Cities on the HNA schedule are expected to adopt HNAs before 2022. For those cities that adopt those HNAs and are also subject to HB 2001, how would these two interact? Can cities adjust their HNA findings based on taking actions in HB 2001? Some of these strategies will remove barriers to housing development. A: House Bill 2001 establishes a maximum assumed increase in efficiency of lands within the UGB due to the adoption of middle housing measures of 3%. This change will be part of the HNA framework moving forward. Q 15: Is it possible to combine the Housing Needs Analysis and Housing Production Strategy? A: Yes. The rules were structured to allow cities to build on existing housing work and outreach. The City of Medford is currently doing these processes concurrently and will be available as a model for other cities upon completion. In addition, Cities are also able, and encouraged, to combine the outreach conducted from HNAs, Consolidated Plans, engagement from Severely Rent burdened households, and other planning efforts within the city into the Housing Production Strategy. Feedback Q 16: Where can we provide feedback on this meeting and future webinars? A: The Department will send out a post-meeting survey where you can let us know your thoughts. Q 17:As a prototype city—I am wondering about case studies specifically for funding tools, not only talking about what strategy, but how successful it was. Is that something that can be pulled together and provided to cities? A: The pool that can be drawn from to provide beat practices or case studies is limited, but there is a lot of creative, innovative work that has been completed prior to HB 2003. This proposal would be a great tool to provide cities an additional tool for financial incentives and will be part of DLCD's guidance resources. Q 18:What happens next with the Regional HNAs? Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Written Responses 5 Updated March 10, 2021 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 5 OF 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 117 OF 136 A: The RHNA was a prototype analysis required by the Legislature—it does not have any regulatory authority at this time. Any future implementation of something like a RHNA would require action by the Legislature. The Department has published its recommendations and analysis of the RHNA to the Oregon Legislature on March 1, 2021. The report can be viewed on the DLCD website. Q 19:Can successful outreach examples from other communities be shared? A: Yes. That is a good idea. There is currently small sample size to choose from at this point, but as communities adopt their HNAs and HPSs, there will be more opportunities to share what has been done in terms of successful outreach efforts. Housing Production Strategies Open Forum Written Responses 6 Updated March 10, 2021 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 6 OF 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 118 OF 136 Housing Capacity Analysis Update Schedule for Oregon Cities with a population above 10,000 (Required by ORS 197.296) OAR 660, Division 8 - Exhibit A To be adopted by the Land Conservation and Development Commission in February 2022 Updated January 4, 2022 Cities must adopt updated Housing Capacity Analyses (HNA) by December 31stof the listed year. Cities not within a Metropolitan Service District (must update HNA every eight years) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 1 Grants Pass Independence Astoria Lincoln City Eugene Canby Albany Ashland 2 Lebanon McMinnville Bend Sandy Central Point Baker City Hermiston 3 Pendleton Medford Keizer Springfield Corvallis Coos Bay Newberg 4 Newport Molalla Salem The Dalles Cottage Grove Dallas Ontario 5 North Bend Prineville Klamath Falls 6 Redmond La Grande 7 Roseburg Monmouth 8 St. Helens Silverton 9 Woodburn Cities within a Metropolitan Service District (must update HNA every six years) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 1 -None- Beaverton -None- Forest Grove Sherwood Gladstone N/A N/A 2 Fairview Troutdale Cornelius 3 Gresham Tualatin Tigard 4 Happy Valley Oregon City 5 Hillsboro 6 Lake Oswego 7 Milwaukie 8 Portland 9 West Linn 10 Wilsonville PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 1 OF 3 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 119 OF 136 Important Revisions in the 2022 HNA Schedule Update DLCD recently published an updated version of the HNA Schedule on August 26, 2021.This updated version was intended to reflect recent HNA adoptions in several cities. Adoptions of HNA prior to the inaugural HNA year 2022 "reset the clock"for those jurisdictions (see note#4 below).The August 2021 version shifted the HNA deadline for the City of Lake Oswego from 2023 to 2024 inadvertently.This error has been correct in this most recent version. Pursuant to OAR 660-008-0045, cities with a population of 10,000 or greater, as determined by a Portland State University Population Research Center certified population estimate, must adopt an HNA on a regular schedule.The 2020 United States Census estimated that the population of the cities of Astoria, Molalla, Monmouth, and North Bend exceeded 10,000. While the Portland State University Population Research Center does not certify population estimates until December 15, 2021,the estimates are based on US Census data.As a result, there is a high likelihood that the population of these four cities will be certified over 10,000 when Portland State University published certified estimates in December 2021. Molalla and North Bend received DLCD technical assistance funding to complete an HNA in the current 2021-2023 biennium. Monmouth recently adopted an HNA in 2020. Astoria has neither recently adopted an HNA or applied for technical assistance. HNA Update Notes on Administration: 1. The deadline for adoption in any given year will be December 31st. 2. A city will be considered to have met its obligation to adopt the HNA update upon adoption by ordinance at the local level.Any subsequent appeal will not be considered a failure to comply with the update requirement. 3. The date of final adoption of the HNA at the local level will establish the next HNA update deadline.The next update deadline will be six or eight years in the future, depending on whether or not the subject city is in the boundary of a metropolitan service district. 4. Those cities that adopt an HNA prior to their listed deadline will effectively"reset the clock," such that their next applicable HNA deadline will be six or eight years after the early adoption, depending upon whether or not they are within the boundary of a metropolitan service district. 5. House Bill 2003 stipulates that the first scheduled HNA update may be no less than two years following adoption of administrative rules for another element of the bill, known as "housing production strategies."The Land Conservation and Development Commission completed rulemaking on housing production strategies (HPSs) in the fall of 2020 and adopted HPS rules as amendments to OAR Chapter 660, Division 8 on November 12, 2020. 6. Please note that for the city's HNA update deadline to have been met, a city must adopt the HNA by ordinance,typically as a supporting document to the city's comprehensive plan. Adoption of the HNA by ordinance also allows city decision makers to utilize the HNA as a legally defensible basis for decision-making. 7. Also, please note that, consistent with OAR Section 660-024-0050(4) a city must address a land deficit identified in the HNA prior to, or concurrent with, adoption of the HNA.The local government must amend the plan to satisfy the need deficiency, either by increasing the development capacity of land already inside the city, by expanding the UGB, or both. 8. A city that adopts an HNA after December 31, 2021 but in a year that is prior to the deadline established in this schedule is still required to complete a Housing Production Strategy one year PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 2 OF 3 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 120 OF 136 after the city's established HNA deadline.A city may complete a Housing Production Strategy prior to the established deadline. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 3 OF 3 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 121 OF 136 Housing Production Strategy Program - List of Tools, Actions, and Policies OREGON ADMINISTRATIVE RULE CHAPTER 660, DIVISION 8, ATTACHMENT B Revised -February 2022 Housing Production Strategy Guidance Document: To assist cities in the creation and drafting of their Housing Production Strategy Report in compliance to HB 2003, the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) provided a guidance document of housing production strategies a jurisdiction could employ to facilitate housing production in their community. The document contains a list of strategies assigned by categories. Each strategy includes a brief overview of its intent and purpose as well as a projection of its expected impact by housing tenure and by income bracket. As the jurisdiction prepares a housing production strategy report, the jurisdiction would review the guidance document to select specific strategies that work best for their community and that address their identified Housing Needs. The jurisdiction would simply reference the strategy number when describing the adoption, implementation, and expected magnitude of impact of each strategy in their report. If the jurisdiction has a strategy that is not listed they would propose this under Category Z. Categories of Tools, Actions, and Policies The proposed categories contain tools, strategies, or policies that are intended to: 1. Reduce financial and regulatory impediments to develop Needed Housing; 2. Create financial and regulatory incentives for development of Needed Housing; 3. Provide access to local, state, and federal resources; and 4. Allow for local innovation. These are strategies that a jurisdiction can take to proactively encourage Category A Zoning and Code Changes needed housing production through zoning and code modifications. These strategies may also include regulations to ensure housing goals are met. These strategies address known impediments to providing needed housing. Category B x-� Reduce Regulatory Impediments These include but are not limited to zoning, permitting, and infrastructure °°��� impediments. Category C Financial Incentives These are a list of financial incentives that jurisdictions can give to 4.9 developers to encourage them to produce needed housing. These are a list of resources or programs at the local, state and federal level Category D Financial Resources that can provide money for housing projects. The majority of these resources are intended to provide money for affordable housing projects. TAX These are a list of tax exemption and abatement programs that are intended Category E Tax Exemption and Abatement $= to encourage developers to produce housing. These are strategies that secure land for needed housing, unlock the value of Category F Land, Acquisition, Lease, and Partnerships land for housing, and/or create partnerships that will catalyze housing developments. Any other Housing Production Strategy not listed in Categories A through F Category Z �•'`� Custom Options that the jurisdiction wishes to implement will be outlined in this section and numbered accordingly. Equitable Outcomes Note: Some of the strategies may not create an overall housing production increase however, they do increase or maintain housing for a specific affordability target or population. Caution Note: Jurisdictions should be careful when picking strategies to ensure that housing strategies together in their aggregate do not work to suppress the overall supply of housing of stiffle housing production. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 1 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 122 OF 136 Anti-Displacement and Gentrification Toolkit: In the Spring of 2021 DLCD partnered with Portland State University to create an anti-displacement and gentrification toolkit.Though not mandatory to use,the toolkit was designed 1) help jurisdictions better measure the pressures of anti-displacement and gentrification in their communities, and 2) direct HPS strategies towards mitigating these pressures as more housing is produced. In the process several additional columns were created to better understand the impact of each strategy when it comes to anti-displacement work. These additional columns are defined as follows: Housing Equity Impact: DIRECT, (DIRECT), INDIRECT,AND (INDIRECT) DIRECT strategies for meeting housing equity needs are focused on the supply. They are needed immediately and persistently by groups that are vulnerable in the housing market.These strategies directly produce or protect affordable housing, especially for communities of color and other protected class communities.They have strong impacts for anti-displacement that can be seen in the short-term. A(DIRECT) strategy is one that is specific to affordable housing and/or protected classes and vulnerable populations, but does not actually create housing. Strategies that allow for more housing overall are INDIRECT; strategies that are oriented towards smaller units or diverse housing types are (INDIRECT)-they are more likely to address equity needs, but may also require additional tools to focus on adffordability,tenure, or accessibility. Likewise,strategies for housing preservation can be important for anti-displacement planning, if they are focused on maintaining affordability along with quality. Neighborhood Typology: The toolkit establishes a methodology for cities to categorize census tracts based on where gentrification and displacement pressures have already occurred or may occur in the future.These six Neighborhood Typologies (Affordable and Vulnerable, Early Gentrification,Active Gentrification, Late Gentrification, Becoming Exclusive, and Advance Exclusive)reflect the spatial distribution of housing inequity. Cities should take special consideration of these spatial inequities in the development of their Housing Production Strategies. Some Housing Production Strategies when applied flatly across an entire city result in negative or inequitable outcomes for communities members most at risk of displacement. The This section is intended to highlight which strategies may have unintended negative impacts on particular neighborhood typologies.This is not to imply that all Housing Production Strategies will have negative impacts on housing equity- many strategies work without particular concern across any kind of neighborhood. However,some housing production strategies are better suited for particular neighborhood types, and some strategies need special nuance or policy refinement to add special mitigation protections against further potential displacement impacts. Green: GO use and implement, especially if a tool is useful in this neighborhood type Yellow: PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY and carefully.This means that a strategy needs to be monitored for impacts and possibly paired with more direct mitigating strategies in this neighborhood type. Red: STOP AND PLAN. This strategy is highly likely to create displacement pressures and must be paired with mitigation measures in this neighborhood type. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 2 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 123 OF 136 Category A: Zoning and Code Changes These are strategies that a city can take to proactively encourage needed housing production through zoning and code modifications. These Strategies may also include regulations to ensure housing goals are met. Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Ensure Land Zoned for Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) This strategy will work on establishing minimum density standards, updating development codes to prohibit new single-family ° Higher Density is not Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring with attention to displacement in gentrifying A01 detached housing in high density zones, and allow single-family detached homes in medium density zones only if they meet ° Morrow County HNA, 2017 INDIRECT All Developed at Lower minimum density or maximum lot size requirements. Workforce (80-120 AMI) For Sale areas; add incentives for direct production of equity needs Densities Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) In many cities, towns, and counties, changes to local zoning policies can help to facilitate the development of lower-cost housing Zoning Changes to types, such as Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU's), manufactured homes, multifamily housing, micro-units, or single-room ublicly-Subsidized (< 30% AM., Facilitate the Use of occupancy developments. Changes to local zoning policies can also help to facilitate the development of safe overnight sheltering For Rent A02 Lower-Cost Housing options for unhoused residents, such as Safe Park programs, Conestoga Hut Micro-shelters, sleeping pod micro-shelters, and Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Local Housing Solutions DIRECT All Planning and continued monitoring of production vs. needs Types others.To increase the likelihood the market can produce lower-cost housing types, it is important to make them allowable as of Market Rate (> 120% AMI) right in all locations and neighborhoods. If not, still provide flexibility in zoning code to still issue variance or conditional use permits that allow deviations from existing regulations on a case-by-case basis. FAR, Density, or Height ° Early Gentrification A03 Bonuses for Affordable FAR, density, and height bonuses for affordable housing developments. Note: FAR/density bonuses do not work if there is not Affordable (30-80/° AMI) For Rent -- DIRECT Active Gentrication These tools work best in strongmarkets; have a medium impact on displacement adequate height to make additional development feasible. Workforce (80-120% AMI) V1 .)aIG p p Housing Late Gentrification Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Housing rehabilitation codes (or rehab codes) are building codes designed to reduce the costs of renovating and rehabilitating ° Early Gentrification Housing Rehabilitation Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Where naturally occurring affordable housing is being lost to rehab; add incentives A04 existing buildings, thereby facilitating the continued availability and habitability of older rental housing and owner-occupied homes. ° Local Housing Solutions INDIRECT A- " "entriffication Codes This is especially helpful to facilitate conversation into multiplex housing. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Late Gentrification to maintain affordability to increase anti-displacement impacts Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) ADUs are smaller, ancillary dwelling units located on the same lot as a primary residence. They are typically complete dwellings with their own kitchen, bathroom and sleeping area. Given that ADUs are usually built by individual homeowners with limited ADUs, cottage, and middle housing have a medium impact on preventing Code Provisions for experience or financial resources, code provisions can have a significant influence on the feasibility of their development and For Rent City of the Dalles Housing A05 ADUs enable more widespreadproduction. For example, easingoccupancy requirements, allowingmore ADUs on a lot, and expanding Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Strategy Report (2017) (INDIRECT) All displacement, with planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives p p p y q p g and programs to target affordability and increase impact maximum size requirements. Certain building and development code regulations can inadvertently drive up ADU construction Market Rate (> 120% AMI) costs. More flexibility in siting, design, construction and lower fees are also needed to achieve feasibility in many cases. Affordable & Vulnerable Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Broaden the definition of "housing unit" to allow for more flexibility across use types. For example, SROs are not always allowed in ° Early Gentrification Broaden the Definition Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring of production and locations; add incentives and A06 of Housing Type certain residential zones. Including them in the definition of housing unit, or broadening the set of uses allowed across all Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- (INDIRECT) Active Gentrification programs to increase impact and avoid clustering residential districts, would allow for greater flexibility of housing type. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Late Gentrification Exclusive Affordable & Vulnerable Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Allow for Single Room Allow for SRO, Adult Dorms, and Cohousing in all residential zones. Note: SROs may be favored due to their ability to serve more Early Gentrification Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring of production and locations; add incentives and A07 Occupancy in people for less cost; it is not always a better housing type for all populations. Considerations should be given to ADA accessibility -- DIRECT Active Gentrfication(80-120% AMI) =or Sale cation programs to increase impact and avoid clustering Residential Zones when planning SROs. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Late Gentrification Exclusive Cottage clusters are groups of relatively small homes typically oriented around shared common grounds with 4-14 homes typically between 1,000-1200 square feet in size. By further defining cottage cluster design and development standards, housing code can effectively address a predictable process for developers, and potentially encourage greater production for this housing type. Some examples may include: allowing for a wide range of sizes and attached/detached options for housing; not specifying ownership Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) ADUs, cottage, and middle housing have a medium impact on preventing Promote Cottage structure so that both renters/owners can live on the same cluster; ensuring that minimum site size, setbacks and building Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent City of the Dalles Housing A08 Cluster Housingcoverage requirements do notprohibit cottage cluster development on smaller lots; draft design requirements that ensure Workforce 80-120% AMI) For Sale StrategyReport, April 2017 (INDIRECT) All displacement, with planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives g q g p g q ( p p and programs to target affordability and increase impact neighborhood compatibility, and efficient use of land, but are not so specific as to restrict the ability to adapt to varying Market Rate (> 120% AMI) neighborhood contexts. Other ideas include: uniformed codes, form-based codes, and allowing shared underground infrastructure when practical (e.g. sewer lines from each cottage can connect to one main that runs out to street, rather than 8 parallel lines out to street). Short-term rentals can be seen as an investment strategy for small investors, but can also remove rental housing supply from the Short-Term Rentals market, in effect driving up rent from the local housing market. To avoid this effect, regulations can include definitions for various Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent A09 forms of short-term rentals, defining use, and occupancy standards, and even adding limits to the number of days that a short term ° Morrow County HNA, 2017 DIRECT All High impact on displacement especially in hot neighborhoods Regulations rental can be in operation in order to mitigate their impact on the local housing market. Short Term Rental Regulation should begin Workforce (80-120% AMI) with/include registration requirements for all short term rentals. Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) Requiring that a portion of the units within a market rate development be set aside as affordable housing. This tool will often be combined with property tax exemptions, fee waivers, or development bonuses to offset the cost of affordable housing units. Publicly-Subsidized (0 30% AMI) These tools work best in strong markets; have a medium impact on displacement; Careful consideration should be employed when enacting inclusionary zoning. Note: A number of studies, including those Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Active Gentification A10 Inclusionary Zoning analyzing the IZ Ordinance in Portland, have shown that IZ suppresses, rather than increases, the creation of new housing. Given Workforce (80-120% AMI) -ur oare -- DIRECT Late Gentrification they pair with incentives that can be customized to context for maximum overall that, if IZ is proposed, the financial components need to be calculated right to ensure that the inclusionary rate is not too high for ivrai neL r-vaiu `-- 1 Lu to t\IVII) impact the offsets provided and that overall housing production increases as a result. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 3 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 124 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Add Restrictive Adding restrictive covenants to ensure affordability over time at a certain income level for affordable housing developments. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) A11 Covenants to Ensure Restrictive covenants are usually placed on a property in exchange for a local or state government providing financial contribution Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- DIRECT All Strong tool for subsidized housing preservation in all markets Affordability to the project. These covenants work best over the short-term (up to 30 years); after that they become unable to accommodate vorKrorce (dU-1 LU 7o NMI) For Sale changed circumstances. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Align Lot Division Sometimes there are conflicting regulations between the density that is allowed by the zoning code versus the density that is allowed when lot division (for fee-simple lots) is considered. This can cause unintentional reductions in density, only caused by the Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives and programs to Al2 Density with Zoning fact that the developer would like to create for-sale housingon fee-simple lots. Ideal) the densities would be aligned, so there is Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- INDIRECT All target affordabilityand increase impact Density p P y' ° g p not a density reduction between - condominium versus fee-simple developments. Market Rate (> 120/o AMI) i Enable and encourage Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) to maximize available Floor Area Ratio (FAR) provided public ° Early Gentrification FAR & Density Transfer Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent These tools work best in strong markets; have a medium impact on displacement A13 benefit (e.g. historic preservation & affordable housing) are attained and covenants ensure long term benefit. This strategy ° -- DIRECT Active Gentrification Provisions assumes that there are adequate, realistic, and relatively easy receiving areas for TRDs. Workforce (80-120% AMI) Late Gentrification when pained with affordability tools Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Re-examine Critically re-assess requirements for ground floor retail; lively streetscape is a worthy goal, but not for every street. Jurisdictions Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Requirements for can inadvertently impose massive costs on developers by requiring ground floor retail and commercial space even when it's Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent A14 -- Ground-floor unlikelyto be fullyoccupied orgenerate nearlyenough revenue topayfor itself. Ground floor uses should be driven bymarket Workforce 80-120% AMI) =or Sale City of Bend INDIRECT All P g ( Retail/Commercial demand; with residential use more beneficial to meet needed housing in some cases (eg. affordable housing). Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Enable developments that support multiple unit sizes, types, and tenure options to promote diverse housing options in Encourage Diverse high- opportunity neighborhoods. With a goal of reversing historical patterns of racial, ethnic, cultural and socio-economic exclusion. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Use an analysis of "Access to Opportunity" to decide which zones or locations (via zoning overlay) to determine where this is Housing Types in High- Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Late Gentrification Planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives and programs to A15 appropriate. Goal is to promote access to opportunity (e.g., high performing schools, multiple transportation options, services, ° -- (INDIRECT) Opportunity etc.) to households with a range of backgrounds and incomes. The jurisdiction could pare this strategy with a robust program of Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Exclusive target affordability and increase impact Neighborhoods Market Rate (> 120/o AMI) incentives (e.g, deeper financial incentives, greater range of housing types, more regulatory waivers, etc.) to be made available in these areas than in other areas of the city. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Manufactured Housing Change the zoning of existing manufactured housing communities to be preserved to a single-use zone that only allows Affordable & Vulnerable Affordable (30-80°/o AMI) For Rent City of Portland Mfd Dwelling Planning and monitoring for potential displacement; may need additional incentives A16 Community manufactured housing communities. Consider lifting restrictions of stick-built homes in cooperatively-owned and other Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Park Amendment DIRECT Early Gentrification and programs in active gentrification for higher impact Preservation Zone manufactured homes. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Active Gentrification 1 Allow a land division where small lots or parcels are created below the standard lot/parcel size for dwelling units that are limited in Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) size. Calculate density differently for the dwelling units due to their limited size. Density example: ADUs, cottage, and middle housing have a medium impact on preventing A17 Small Dwelling Unit Affordable (30-80°/° AMI) For Rent City (INDIRECT) displacement,of Bend All with planningand continued monitoringof production; add incentives Developments a. Dwelling units 600 square feet or smaller: 0.25 of a dwelling unit. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Saleand programs to target affordability and increase impact b. Dwelling units 601 to 1,200 square feet: 0.50 of a dwelling unit. Adopt increased density codes by right near transit stations, with higher levels of density near high capacity/high frequency ° Affordable & Vulnerable Increase Density near Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) stations, then stepping back into residential areas. Automatically upzone based on transportation corridor classifications; meaning Early Gentrification Planning for transit extensions, especially in areas of early gentrification, is Transit Stations and Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent A18 wider ROWS get more flexibility in land use by right. This will add some flexibility for new transit stops, including bus stops. Be ° -- (INDIRECT) Active Gentrification important; add incentives and programs to target affordability and increase impact Regional Multi-use careful not to word the language so that people incorrectly assume that the density can only come after the transit has been put in Workforce (80-120% AMI) or �aie Late Gentrification for anti-displacement of transit-riding populations Trails 0 place. Market Rate (> 12 /o AMI) Exclusive High Density Requiring a certainportion of to-be-annexed land to include a percentage of high density. Be careful that this strategyis not used Affordable 30-80°/ AMI) For Rent Planningand continued monitoringfor housing add incentives for direct A19 Requirements for to-be- q g p g g ( o City of Newberg INDIRECT All needs; Annexed Land as a way for low density areas in high-infrastructure locations to shirk responsibility to upzone. Workforce (80-120% AMI) production of equity needs Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Providing a pre-approved set of plans for middle housing typologies (ex. Cottage clusters, townhomes, and SROs). The plans Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Pre-Approved Plan Sets ADUs, cottage, and middle housing have a medium impact on preventing would be highly-efficient, designed for constrained lots and low cost solutions, and would allow for streamlined permitting. This Affordable (30-80°/° AMI) For Rent A20 for Middle Housing would helpattract developers that typically developonly single-family housing to et into the missing middle housing production. Workforce 80-120% AMI For Sale -- (INDIRECT) All displacement, with planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives Typologies p Yp Y y g Y g g g g p ( ) and programs to target affordability and increase impact Consider partnering with a university, design institution, or developing a competition to produce plans. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Provide a pre-approved set of plans for ADU designs (6-10 sizes/configurations) that, if chosen by a developer/owner, would lead ADUs have a medium impact on preventing displacement, with planning and A21 Pre-Approved Plan to automatic approvals and reduced permitting schedule. Plans would reduce the need for architectural costs and reduce barriers Affordable (30-80°0o AMI) For Rent __ (INDIRECT) All continued monitoring of production; add incentives and programs to target Sets for ADUs 0 to entry. Workforce (80-12 /o AMI) For Sale affordability and increase impact Market Rate (> 120/o AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Mixed Housing Types in Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Cottage and middle housing have a medium impact on preventing displacement, A22 Planned Unit Require or incentive a mix of housing types within Residential Planned Unit Developments (PUD). Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale City of Forest Grove INDIRECT All with planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives and programs Developments Market Rate (> 120% AMI) to target affordability and increase impact PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 4 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 125 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Provide incentives in the development code to increase the number of units designed to meet Universal Design, Lifelong Housing Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) A23 Accessible Design Certification, and other similar standards. Examples of incentives include: expedited review and permittingprocessing, planningAffordable (30-80/° AMI) For Rent -- DIRECT All Directlyaddresses equitable housingneed g p p Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale q and building fee reductions, system development charge deferrals, density or building height bonuses. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Many smaller housing formats are built on wheels, including tiny homes on wheels (THOWs), park model homes, and recreational vehicles (RVs). providing occupants significant flexibility in where they site their homes, yet many local codes prohibit the siting of Publi-i—c11keirli o,i to 'VIOL AMI) Legalize Alternative these housingtypes outside of manufactured homeparks and RVparks. Permittingthese housingtypes, with appropriate Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Tiny House on Wheels (THOWS) A24 Housing Types on yp yp siting o (INDIRECT) All -- Wheels and in Parks standards to ensure adequate public facilities access and life/safety, can provide additional permanent or interim housing options Workforce (80-120/° AMI) For Sale City of Portland outside of parks. Allowing broader siting of RV parks and amending standards to allow THOWs, park model homes, and other Market Rate (> 120% AMI) housing types on wheels can also provide additional siting opportunities. The Oregon Reach Code, Part II, defines a "tiny house" as a dwelling that is 400 square feet or less in floor area, excluding lofts. Legalize and Encourage While many (though not all)jurisdictions allow tiny homes to be sited as a primary or accessory dwelling, few encourage their I Publicly-Subsidized (< 74n°i AMI) A25 Tiny Homes and development through regulatory incentives. Legalizing the siting of tiny homes as primary or accessory dwellings through the Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent __ (INDIRECT) All -- Villages removal of minimum unit size requirements can enable the development of this housing type. Jurisdictions can encourage the Workforce (80-120/° AMI) For Sale development of tiny houses and tiny house villages by providing regulatory incentives - such as reductions in required off-street Market Kate (> -1LU/° mivii) parking or open space - for units less than 400 SF in floor area Category B : Reduce Regulatory Impediments These strategies address known impediments to providing needed housing. These include but are not limited to process, permitting, and infrastructure impediments. Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Remove or Reduce Removing parking requirements for residential uses provides the opportunity to reduce the amount of lot area used for pavement Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) and provides more space for housing and open space. This strategy offers greater flexibility to site housing and reduces costs Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent B01 Minimum Parking associated with providing parking. Allow developers to respond to market demands and transit access without having the burden Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale City of Tigard INDIRECT All -- Requirements of parking minimums. Consider removing parking requirements near transit or for affordable housing. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Remove Development Streamlining the conversion of larger single-family homes into multi-unit dwellings (e.g. duplex or triplex). This should be aligned ° Converstions that upgrade and upscale may displace through broader B02 Code Impediments for with reduced off-street parkingrequirements, so that conversion doesn't trigger the need to add additional driveways (or isn't Affordable (30-80/° AMI) For Rent Cityof Tigard (INDIRECT) Early Gentrification neighborhood changes; conversions that create more rental and moderate cost p q gg y Workforce (80-120% AMI) .JUla g Active Gentrification g g ' Conversions halted by inability to add additional driveways). Market Rate (> 120% AMI) housing may stabilize Expedited permitting will help to reduce costs of development of Needed Housing as identified by the City. Consider projects with direct or indirect funding from local government as essential and projects with long term affordability covenants through tax Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) abatement or inclusionary requirements as high priority and/or only expedite housing according to the jurisdictions identified ° Expedite Permitting for Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent City of Portland (direct funding B03 Needed Housing Types needed housing types. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale only) (INDIRECT) All -- Localgovernments might also consider assigning a designating staff to shepherd projects through the construction process in Market Rate (> 120% AMI) g g g g g p g order to expedite process. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) B04 Expedite Lot Division for Expedite lot divisions and subdivisions for affordable housing projects Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- (DIRECT) All -- Affordable Housing =or Sale Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Reduce Regulatory Remove barriers such as minimum street frontage, driveway requirements, etc., that impact minimum lot size/density during lot Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Increased dendsity in gentrifying neighborhoods may not serve to stabilize; add B05 Barriers to Lot Division division. Preferablyallow by-right lot division upto max number of units allowed. Workforce 80-120% AMI) For Sale "" (INDIRECT) All incentives and programs to target affordabilityand increase impact ( p g g p Market Rate (> 120% AMI) In some cities, towns, and counties, the process associated with obtaining approval for new construction is so time-consuming or costly that it dampens the amount of new development and adds significantly to its costs. To help streamline the process, cities, Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Streamline Permitting towns and counties can initiate a comprehensive review of all steps in the development approval process to identify the factors Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives and programs to B06 Process that most significantly suppress new residential construction and redevelopment. With a clearerpicture of the obstacles, local Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Local Housing Solutions INDIRECT All target affordabilityand increase impact g Y pp p g p leaders can then begin to assess whether they can be reduced or eliminated to stimulate development activity. In doing the Market Rate (> 120% AMI) comprehensive review, it is critical that actual timeline performance be evaluated not just the planned timeline. Flexible Regulatory Often, nonprofit housing developers and housing agencies face regulatory impediments to building affordable housing, which can Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) often derail projects. This strategy provides a flexible framework for delivery of affordable housing including but not limited to Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring of production and locations; add incentives and B07 Concessions for reduced minimum setbacks, height bonuses, and/or allowing for flexibility in how units are delivered. This strategy is not intended For Sale Morrow County HNA, 2017 (DIRECT) All programs to increase impact and avoid clustering Affordable Housing to allow for a lower quality for affordable housing buildings. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 5 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 126 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Waive Off-Site Waive infrastructure build-out requirements for infill affordable or needed housing projects constructed in neighborhoods without a Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Infrastructure network of those amenities currently. Example: Waive requirements for curb, gutter and sidewalk build-out on the lot if it is Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Clackamas CountyHousingPlanningand continued monitoringofproduction; add incentives and programs to B08 Requirements for p q o (INDIRECT) All p g Needed or Affordable located in an area without either connecting curb, gutter, and sidewalk currently or viable plans for funding infrastructure Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Report target affordability and increase impact Housing construction within the next decade. This is especially relevant in smaller, more rural locations. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Programming work in a Capital Improvements Programming (CIP) so that projects are constructed sooner to support development Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Capital Improvements of middle housing or to open up more land in an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) for development of middle housing. Coordinate Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent B09 Pro rammin (CIP) housingplanningwith CIP work toprioritize those projects that would support development (e.g. new water line, sewer pumping Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- INDIRECT All -- Programming p 1 pp p p p g station). If the UGB is amended or the premises on which the CIP were based changed substantially, the CIP should be revised. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) sewer, and transportation PFPs and gettingcapital improvement projects (CIP) built so that costs to developon Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Completing water, p p p p J Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent City of Tigard B10 Public Facility Planning land zoned for needed housing can be further anticipated and supported. In addition, public utilities planning also allows for more INDIRECT All -- unit capacity, especially in areas that are upzoned for denser housing. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale City of Bend Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Change the culture of Planning / Development Services departments to have a pro-housing agenda for both rental and homeownership. Supplement with fair housing education and education on the supply and demand impact on housing prices. The Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) State could support jurisdictions in this effort by providing an incentive (e.g. funding set-aside) for jurisdictions that adopt Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent A more focused agenda on afffordable housing will address NIMBY and stigma B11 Pro-Housing Agenda aggressive pro-housingpolicies. In the State of California housingfunds areprioritized for cities that adopt pro-housingpolicies. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- INDIRECT All issues with rental housing, affordable housing, and protected classes gg p g, g� Though it may be counterintuitive, since this allows anti-housing cities to avoid housing altogether. Alternatively, the State of Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Oregon could consider a stick rather than carrot approach (e.g. withholding highway funds). Change the culture of Planning / Development Services departments to have a pro Affordable Housing agenda for both rental and homeownership. Supplement with fair housing education and education on the supply and demand impact on housing prices. The Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) A pro-affordable housing agenda does not create housing directly; but it is an Pro Affordable Housing State could support jurisdictions in this effort by providing an incentive (e.g. funding set-aside) for jurisdictions that adopt Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent important component of planning to ensure that equity is achieved. Including Fair B12 Agenda aggressivepro Affordable Housingpolicies. This agenda should include aplan to ensure that affordable housingis not For Sale -- (DIRECT) All Housingand addressingprotected classes such as race/ethnicityand national 9 9g 9 � suppressed in single-family zones or in wealthier communities. As part of this, encourage departments to look closely at how origin will further target this strategy to equitable outcomes existing approaches may inadvertently favor one type of tenure over another. Align Bike Parking Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent B13 Requirements with Require bicycle parking requirements more in line with actual use. Example: No more than 1-1.5 bike parking stalls per unit. -- INDIRECT All -- Workforce (80-120% AMI) Actual Use Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Amend the comprehensive plan to explicitly make Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing a Housing Policy. Example below, based on federal guidance on affirmatively furthering fair housing and current state protected classes. Jurisdictions may add additional protected classes, such as ancestry, ethnicity, or occupation. Additionally, a jurisdiction could create an Analyis of Impediments to Fair Housing (Al), even when not required, and conduct fair housing training for Council, Planning Commission, and other relevant Adopt Affirmatively policymakers. Jurisdictions would work to make known evidence and best practices in planning, to reverse discrimination and Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) addressing affordability and equitable access for all people; as well as considering B14 Furthering Fair Housing exclusion as well as concentrations of wealth, a required aspect of the comprehensive plan process. Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- (DIRECT) All neighborhood clustering and neighborhood change as part of access to as a Housing Policy in Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale opportunity. It is an important undergirding for housing planning and directing Comprehensive Plan Housing Policy x: Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Market Rate (> 120% AMI) resources; but does not create housing [Jurisdiction] affirmatively furthers access to decent, affordable housing with convenient access to the services and destinations Oregonians need to thrive without regard to their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, familial status, mental or physical disability, source of legally-derived income, marital status, sexual orientation or gender identity. Reduce the Power of Many jurisdictions give communities/neighborhoods too much veto power on both zoning policy, and particular project proposals Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) to keep others who they don't approve of from moving in. Dedicate funds to educate citizens on poverty, exclusion, and racial AMI) For Rent removingpolicies ais a stronger and more direct impact than educating NIMBYism to stop, Affordable (30-80% g p B15 slow, change, or reduce dynamics. Remove policies that allow neighborhood opposition to evidence based zoning proposals and individual projects. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- (DIRECT) All communities. affordable housing Decisions about what kind and how much housing goes where it needs to be data-driven and focused on equitable outcomes Market Rate (> 120% AMI) instead of the best outcomes for those with the most money and/or privilege. Holistic Planning to Geography is often at odds with social equity; natural beauty is often in wealthy neighborhoods, as are historic buildings, allowing Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) them to exclude new development and affordable housing. Develop a targeted plan to distribute density within the jurisdiction Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Planning and continued monitoring of production; add incentives and programs to B16 Distribute New Density more equitably to areas with quality schools, access to natural resources etc. Additionally, work to distribute transit equitably to Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- (INDIRECT) All target affordability and increase impact More Equitably ensure that exclusionary neighborhoods don't remain that way because they don't offer transit for higher density housing. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Reduce on-site Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) B17 Common/Active Open Remove or reduce requirements for on-site common/active open space. Instead, ensure that adopted Parks plans fully consider Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- INDIRECT affordable & Vulnerable Take care with neighborhoods that are seeking more holistic revitalization to Space Requirements the needs of every neighborhood, and that the jurisdiction is actively working toward satisfying those needs. Workforce (80-120°% AMI) For Sale Early Gentrification balance non-housing needs with housing production Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Jurisdictions would develop a comprehensive review of the impediments to the development of homeownership opportunities and actionable steps to remove those impediments. ° To ensure access to homeownership to under-represented groups, pair Prioritize Home Affordable (30-80% AMI) 'or Rent B18 ° -- (INDIRECT) All development of owner-occupied housing types with homebuyer education, financial Ownership Note:An important impediment to condominium development is the risk associated with the current condominium law in Oregon. A Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale revamp of this law is needed to increase homeownership opportunities that are smaller in size. This would require action at the Market Rate (> 120% AMI) assistance like downpayments and low-cost loans, and affirmative marketing state level. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 6 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 127 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Add a section to the city's development application asking developers how they decided on their development program and which Survey Applicants on public incentives were part of the consideration. This would lead to better information about how to tailor city strategies toward Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) B19 Development Program production. An alternative to requiring cities to collect this info, is to consider this approach as part of a production strategy. To be Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Housing Production Strategy (INDIRECT) All -- Decision-Making a strategy it needs additional action like logging and making publicly available the aggregated survey information on the city's Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Technical Advisory Committee housing/development/planning webpage or similar. The information could be collected on a form separate from the development Market Rate (> 120% AMI) application, so it is clear that the additional information is not part of the permit decision. Category C : Financial Incentives These are a list of financial incentives that cities can offer to developers to encourage them to produce needed housing. Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Reduce or Exempt Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) C01 SDCs for Needed Reducing, deferring, and/or financing System Development Charges (SDCs) at a low interest rate for needed housing types. This Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Cit of Ti and INDIRECT All Increase impacts by focusing SDC incentives on needed housing types from the Housing strategy reduces development costs. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale y g ( ) equity housing needs analysis Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) / I Publirlw-Si ihcirli7Prl (< Ifni, Am Updating SDC fee schedule so that is tied to dwelling size. This strategy ensures that smaller dwelling sizes in single and multi- ) CO2 Modify SDC fee family housing are not disproportionately burdened by fees and therefore encouraged. Consider per square foot fees rather than Affordable (30-80°/°° AMI) For Rent City of Florence (INDIRECT) All Increase impacts by focusing SDC incentives on needed housing types from the schedules per dwelling. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale equity housing needs analysis Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Reduce or Exempt Waivers/reductions of SDCS for ADU production in order to improve the feasibility of the development. Create a model ordinance For Rent In strong market, this can produce more housing units; ADUs have medium anti- 0O3 City of Portland (INDIRECT) displacement impact, can be increased with programs to target affordability and SDCs for ADUs for the waiver, or deferment, of SDCs. Scale SDCs based on size, resource efficiency, and access to alternative transportation. For Sale equity Incentivize Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Give Bonus Density Incentives for manufactured and factory built housing. Consider tying bonus to modular housing that Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent C04 Manufactured and Metro KingRMHP (DIRECT) All -- Modular Housing demonstrates if housing meets affordability targets of below 120% AMI. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale County Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Waive or Finance Park A policy providing for the exemption (preferred) or financing park impact fees (helpful) for affordable housing ensures a mix of For Rent Tualatin Hills Park & C05 Impact Fees for affordable housing. Financing the fee while still collecting can mitigate the cost of the fee to coincide with the available cash flow Recreation District (DIRECT) All Reduced fees have medium impacts on displacement Affordable Housing of the affordable housing. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Publicly Funded Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) C06 Infrastructure Fund off-site improvements for workforce or affordable housing; e.g. street intersection improvements triggered bydevelopment. Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent p p gg p __ (DIRECT) All Reduced fees have medium impacts on displacement Workforce (80-120% AMI) 'or Sale Improvements ° Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) C07 Reconsider Applying If there are appropriate levels of parks and open space near the project, these impact fees should not be charged or should be Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- (INDIRECT) Reduced fees have medium impacts on displacement in strong markets; make more impact by Park SDCs assessed at a much lower rate. They are not general funds to be allocated without a nexus to the development. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale targeting to affordable development Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Tie transportation SDCs to the number of parking spaces, as the number of parking spaces is a more accurate predictor of the Publicly-Subsidized (0 30% AMI) Transportation SDCsAffordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Early GentrificW—. Reduced fees have medium impacts on displacement in strong markets; make more impact by C08 number of trips that will start or end at every development. By tying transportation costs directly to vehicle storage, the system will -- (INDIRECT) Tied to Parking both be assessing transportation impacts fairly and encouraging alternate modes of transportation. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Active Gentrification targeting to affordable development Market Rate (> 120)/° AMI) Category D : Financial Resources These are a list of resources or programs at the local, state, and federal level that can provide funding for housing projects, primarily subsidized affordable housing projects. Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact CDBG Grants are federal funds set aside in the form of grants to be used to meet national objectives: direct benefit for low and City of Tigard City of Eugene moderate income households; benefit to predominantly low income areas; elimination of slums and blight. Eligible activities City of Beaverton include public works infrastructure, community facilities, new housing development, housing rehabilitation, and public services Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Community ° City of Hillsboro D01 Development Block (counselling, social services & microenterprise training, including short-term emergency rent assistance). Eligibility is based upon Affordable (30-80/° AMI) For Rent City of Gresham DIRECT Affordable & Vulnerable -- Grant (CDBG) the levels of low- and moderate-income families that may benefit from services provided by the eligible projects. While Cities can City of Portland rhnnca not to annlw fnr (`r1R(, rnntrnl of‘n,hathar nr not thaw raraiwa lr1R(, is I iltimatalw at tha rarlaral lawal and !ilea tha Ctata of PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 7 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 128 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact V I IV JV I MAL CV CA.A1Jly ICI V V V V, VV I III VI VI VV I IV LI'VI VI I MAL LI 1Vy I l'VV I V V VV V V IV VI LII I IIA LVIy CAL LI IV 1 V V.A VI VI IV V VI CAI IV III.V LI IV V CV CV VI City of Bend Oregon, these funds can be used for things that have little to do with housing, so may have limited impact. A better gauge may be City of Redmond HOW cities use their CDBG; for housing benefit or other. State of Oregon Publicly-Subsidized (< 30(% AMI)Federal tax provision that encourages private investment in affordable rental housing by providing qualified investors with a dollar- Early Gentrification In strong markets, LIHTC can be used to create mixed-income housing that provides D02 Low Income Housing for-dollar reduction in federal income tax liability in exchange for investment in qualifying new construction and rehabilitation Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Local Housing Solutions DIRECT Active Gentrification cross-subsidy to affordable units; LIHTC can also be combined with additional Tax Credit (LIHTC) LIHTCs mayalso be paired with Tax Exempt Revenue Bonds. vvorKrorce (�u- �Lu Y° AIVII) -or Sale Late Gentrification programs to extend the affordabilityperiod for the housing projects. p Market Rate (> 120% AMI) p g Housing Trust Funds are a flexible source of funding that can be used to support a variety of affordable housing activities. Because they are created and administered at the city, county, region, or state level, housing trust funds are not subject to the Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) restrictions of federal subsidy programs and therefore can be designed specifically to address local priorities and needs. The Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D03 Housing Trust Funds entity administering the fund determines eligible activities, which can include anything from emergency rent assistance for families Local Housing Solutions DIRECT All -- facing the threat of eviction or homelessness to gap financing for new construction of affordable housing to repairs for older homeowners. Operating Subsidies for Publicly-Subsidized (0 30% AMI) D04 Affordable Housing Operating subsidies are payments made annually (or more frequently) to owners of affordable housing developments that make Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Local Housing Solutions DIRECT All -- Developments the housing more affordable by covering a portion of the ongoing costs of operating the development. vvu1 KW!(..:C kou- 1Luo° /-�1v11) -or Sale I Market Rate (> 120/o AMI) • Employer-assisted housing programs provide a channel through which employers can help their employees with the cost of Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Employer - Assisted owning or renting a home, typically in neighborhoods close to the workplace. Assistance may be provided in a variety of ways, Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Early Gentrification Employer-assisted housing in areas near transit or near workplaces can support D05 HousingPrograms including through down payment rants or loans that are forgiven over a period of employment, homeownership counseling and Workforce 80-120% AMI For Sale Local Housing Solutions (INDIRECT) Active Gentriciation stability and equity, and contribute to a 'pro-housing agenda'. g g g p Y g g� pp g ( ) Yp g g education, rental subsidies and, less commonly, direct investment in the construction of rental housing. HOME is a federal program established by Congress in 1990 that is designed to increase affordable housing for low- and very low- Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) income families and individuals. All States and participating jurisdictions receive HOME funds from HUD each year, and may Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D06 HOME Program -- DIRECT All -- spend HOME on rental assistance, assistance to homebuyers, new construction, rehabilitation, improvements, demolition, VVV,,,,UCV c30-120�° ,A,V„j or Sale , ' ° -- relocation, and limited administrative costs. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Local Housing Solutions Dedicated Revenue A dedicated revenue source for affordable housing provides an ongoing committed stream of revenue for affordable housing, often Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) D07 Sources for Affordable deposited into a Housing Trust Fund. This can be helpful in increasing the total funding available for affordable housing. The fund Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent DIRECT All -- can receive its sources from: Transient Lodging Taxes collected from Short Term Rentals, developer fee and real estate transfer For Sale City of Portland Housing Housing taxes (not constitutional in Oregon). Investment Fund Cities, towns, and counties establish demolition taxes and condo conversion fees as a way to generate revenue and replace Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) affordable housing lost to these activities. The proceeds from both demolition taxes and condo conversion fees are typically ° Active Gentrification Medium impacts to prevent displacement in strong market with lots of demolition D08 Demolition Taxes deposited in a Housing Trust Fund to support affordable housing activities. To ensure that a demolition tax on residential Affordable (30-80/°° AMI) For Rent Local Housing Solutions INDIRECT Late Gentrification and conversion, with impacts in the short term and potential to fund housing. Plan development does not deter needed redevelopment - this strategy should only be applied if the housing replacement is 1:1. If the Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Exclusive and monitor production vs. needs proposed development is more dense than the original structure, there should not be a demolition tax. Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Construction Excise Tax A Construction Excise Tax (CET) is a tax on construction projects that can be used to fund affordable housing. According to state Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent City of Portland D09 (CET) statutes, the tax may be imposed on improvements to real property that result in a new structure or additional square footage in an For Sale City of Eugene DIRECT All Plan and monitor production vs. needs existing structure. City of Sisters The TIF set-aside can fund housing; but it is a financing mechanism that relies on Create a TIF set-aside for affordable housing development programs within designated Urban Renewal Areas (URAs). Target Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) overall property values increasing to create the increment. TIF is associated with Tax Increment Affordable & Vulnerable could be to begin setting aside funds for affordable housing projects as a medium-term action, over the next 5 years or so. For Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent gentrification and displacement, especially for people of color. This may be D10 Financing (TIF) Set- example: Portland CityCouncil designates 45% of thegross amount of TIF for designated housingpurposes (rental housingfor I Workforce (80-120% AMI For Sale City of Portland DIRECT Early Gentrification exacerbated by Oregon's restriction of TIF funds to physical development; add Aside p g g p p Active Gentrification households under 60% of Area Median Income (AMI) and homeownership for households under 80% of AMI. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) community and economic development activities for low-income and POC to I support their staying in place as neighborhoods improve Public Housing Authorities have the ability to attach up to 20% of their voucher assistance to specific housing units for each low income housing project, up to 25% of any single project. Project-Based Rental Assistance (PBRA) vouchers provide rental Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Flexible Use of Housing assistance for eligible individuals and families who occupy specific housing units managed by private owners who have entered Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D11 Choice Vouchers into agreements with a housingagency. The household pays an established amount to the owner each month (typically -or ; Local Housing Solutions DIRECT All -- g g Y� p Y ( Yp� Y approximately 30% of monthly income) and the housing agency pays the balance of the rent due. If public housing authorities include homeownership in their administrative plan, housing vouchers may also be used to facilitate low income homeownership. Vouchers that target renters at the 60-80% AMI who are often left out of the housing funded by bond funds and other public sources that are focused on lower income levels. Housing Authorities use affordable housing dollars and issue vouchers that are Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D12 Targeted Vouchers good for one year and pay any landlord the difference between what the tenant can afford and market rent. This takes the -- DIRECT All -- reporting burden off the landlord and essentially allows any existing unit to be affordable. Each year the tenant would have to �v ou ' � For Sale prove to the Housing Authority if they were still income qualified and if not. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 8 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 129 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Low-Interest Loans / Housing Repair and Weatherization Assistance for low and moderate income households may be capitalized by Tax Increment Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D13 Revolving Loan Fund Financing (TIF), Community Development Block Grant (CBDG) Funds, or local Housing Trust Funds. For Sale City of Portland DIRECT All -- Eviction Prevention Programs provide financial assistance to help renters facing eviction stay in their homes. These programs are Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Affordable & Vulnerable generally designed for families who are being evicted due to nonpayment of rent during or following an unforeseen crisis, such as Eviction prevention programs have high anti-displacement impacts, in the short- Eviction Prevention job loss or serious illness, rather than those who face more persistent affordability challenges. Jurisdictions may be interested in Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Local Housing Solutions DIRECT Early Gentrification term, and across all markets. They are especially useful in strong markets where Programs investingin eviction prevention to address concerns about displacement of low-income renters and also to avoid or reduce use of vvorKrorce �tsu- i�u i° Hivii� -or aie5 Active Gentrification there are economic incentives to evict. other more costly local services, like homeless shelters. p Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Late Gentrification Bond - for Resident Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Limited Tax General Obligation Bond that creates a funding source for supportive housing services, such as access to health care, D15 Support Services and mental health, and other social services that better support and stabilize residents who face complex challenges and will benefit Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Oregon Metro DIRECT All -- Permanent Supportive from affordable housing programs. City of Portland Housing Services Following the passage of Measure 102 Oregon local governments, including cities and counties, can now issue voter-approved general obligation bonds to provide direct funding for construction and other capital costs associated with the development and Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Oregon Metro General Obligation construction of affordable housing. These funds can be loaned or granted to both public and privately owned affordable housing Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent City of Portland D16 Bonds — for Affordable projects. "Affordability" is required to be determined by voters and each jurisdiction, and can be above or below minimum DIRECT All -- Housing affordability levels established for the federal LIHTC program and other established federal and State affordable housing finance I V V"'"""`C ko"- 'L"'° ~'V") or Sale programs, defining affordability by reference to Area Median Income (AMI) as established by HUD. The bonds could be paired Market Rate (> 120% AMI) with other financing such as Low Income Housing Tax Credits, or could be used for homeownership opportunities. I Oregon Measure 102 Use IHBG funds for Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Mixing of Indian Housing Block Grants (IHBG), typically used for housing for Native Americans on reservation land, with other Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent NAYA and CDP and Confederate'' D17 Urban Native DIRECT All -- traditional affordable housing funding sources allows preference for Native members in urban affordable housing projects. Tribes of the Siletz Americans Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Weatherization Funds Affordable &Vulnerable Weatherization funds can address displacement by improving habitability in low-income Use weatherization funds administered by statewide network of Community Action Agencies to preserve aging housing stock Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D18 through Community ° OHCS Weatherization Assistance DIRECT Early Gentrification neighborhoods; and by reducing energy costs and needs for expensive repairs that may displace occupied by income-qualified residents. Norkforce (80-120% AMI, :or Sale Action Agencies Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Active Gentrification owners in gentrifying neighborhoods. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Planning ahead for affordability in TOD is important for not displacing households who are most Transit-Oriented Provide financial incentives to developers to create transit-oriented communities. Funding can be used for site acquisition, Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D19 Development Grants infrastructure projects and residential/mixed-use projects. Workforce (80-120% AMI) Oregon Metro TOD Program (INDIRECT) All likely to use transit (low-mod income, renters, POC, and immigrants); making it an effective Market Rate (> 120% AMI) strategy for equity and to support multi-modal transportation. Local Innovation and The Local Innovation and Fast Track (LIFT) Housing Program's objective is to build new affordable housing for low income Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Fast Track (LIFT) households, especially families. Funds are available for Serving Historically Underserved Communities, Rural and Urban Set- Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent OHCS Housing Development D20 Program for Affordable DIRECT All -- asides, Urban Communities, Service to Communities of Color, and Rural Communities. Available for affordable homeownership Workforce (80-120% AMI; For Sale Program Rental Housing units (below 80% AMI). Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Development Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) D21 Mental Health Trust Administered by the Oregon Health Authority for capital construction costs. Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- DIRECT All -- Fund Awards Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Examples: Meyer Memorial D22 Foundations Awards Local, regional, and national foundations provide both capital funding and program funding for a wide variety of innovative housing Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Trust and Oregon Community DIRECT All -- models and programs. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Foundation (OCF) Market Rate (> 120% AMI) State of Oregon to offer non-recourse low-interest debt that can be used to fund workforce or affordable housing. This could be provided through an existing relationship like Network for Oregon Affordable Housing (NOAH). This would be a valuable tool for D23 State of Oregon Debt providing housing in rural communities, where conventional debt funding may not be readily available. Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent __ DIRECT All -- Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Note: This strategy has been suggested by the housing development community, but programs are not yet in place in the State of Oregon. r State of Oregon to provide some form of collateralization to support private debt placement for a workforce or affordable housing project. For example, the State could provide Letters of Credit and/or Guarantee on behalf of the developer to the private lender. State of Oregon Debt This would be a valuable tool for providing housing in rural communities, where conventional debt funding may be hesitant to Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D24 -- DIRECT All -- Support invest without substantial backing that the State could provide. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Note: This strategy has been suggested by the housing development community, but programs are not yet in place in the State of Oregon. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 9 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 130 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact I Oregon State sales tax on luxury items, 2nd homes, etc. dedicated to providing funds for affordable housing funds. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) D25 Luxury Tax for Equitable Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- DIRECT All -- Housing Note: This strategy has been suggested by the housing development community, but programs are not yet in place in the State of Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Oregon. Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Reallocate Health and Because healthy housing makes a huge difference in health care, public safety, and other costs, identify paths to redirect budgets Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent D26 Public Safety from those sectors toward housing construction funds and supporting services. Use advanced modeling projections and adjust as -- DIRECT All -- workforce (80-120% AMI, :or Sale Resources to Housing needed over time. Market Rate (> 120°/° AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) A land tax promotes equity among homeowners, if properly calibrated and incentives more D27 Georgist Land Tax Generate tax revenue for affordable housing by reducing the gains accrued from public investments that are capitalized into Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- DIRECT All development of housing supply. This requires state law changes. private value. https://www.pdx.edu/news/psu-study-portland-land-value-tax-would-improve-equity- homeowners-incentivize-development Category E : Tax Exemption and Abatement These are a list of tax exemption and abatement programs that are intended to encourage developers to produce housing. Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (If available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Nonprofit Low-Income This tool can provide a simplified way for affordable housing owned and operated by a nonprofit (as well as land held by a Publicly-Subsidized (0 30% AMI) nonprofit for future affordable housing development) or Community Land Trusts (at least in land value) to qualify for a property tax Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent See Oregon Revised Statute E01 Rental Housing DIRECT Affordable & Vulnerable -- exemption. Work should be done to make it easier for projects/land to qualify; minimizing the number of taxing authorities needed Chapter 307.540 Exemption to grant an approval. Property Tax Exemption Create a Property Tax Exemption for affordable housing that is tied to level of affordability instead of the ownership structure. For Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) example, grant a property tax exemption for affordable housing that serves households making less than 60/° of AMI at initial Take care to include homebuyer and post-purchase financial education to avoid loss for Affordable Housing Affordable (30-80°/° AMI) For Rent Early Gentrificatior E02 lease up. Don't tie the property tax exemption to ownership (LLC, non-profit, housing authority) and only require income ° -- (DIRECT) of assets in gentrifying neighborhoods, where owners can be pressured to sell or to Tied to Level of verification at the beginning of a residents tenancy. The property should still get the exemption even if the household increases Workforce (80-120% AMI) -or Sale Active Gentrificatia take out refinance loans. Affordability income after their initial lease up so they can build assets in place. Market Rate (> 120/° AMI) Authorized by Oregon Revised Statute, 307.841. Partial property tax exemption program on improvements for new mixed use development. To qualify, a project must have City of Hillsboro Vertical Housing improved, leasable, non-residential development on the ground floor and residential development on the floors above. A partial City of Beaverton For Rent Active Gentrificatio Calibrate incentives to needed housing types, e.g., affordability levels. Incentives for E03 Development Zone Tax abatement on land value is allowed for each equalized floor of affordable housing. This abatement could be made better by an ° City of Milwaukie DIRECT Abatement adjustment to the floor equalization formula - right now, there is a 20% abatementper equalized floor, but if theproject ends upWorkforce (80-120/o AMI) Oregon CityLate Gentrificatior inclusion of affordable units work best in strong markets. q g q Market Rate (> 120% AMI) g being 3.8 equalized floors it only gets 3 floors worth of the abatement rather than an apportioned abatement. City of Gresham City of Tigard City of Wood Village City of Forest Grove Multiple Unit Propert ublicly-Subsidized (< 30% /-.. , y This strategy can be used to incentivize production of multifamily housing with particular features or at particular price points by For Rent See Oregon Revised Statute, Active Gentrification Calibrate incentives to needed housing types, e.g., affordability levels. Incentives for inclusion of E04 Tax Exemption offerin qualifying developments apartial property tax exemption over the course of severalyears. Workforce (80-120% AMI) =or Sale Chapter 307.600 (INDIRECT) Late Gentrification affordable units work best in strongmarkets. (MUPTE) g q Y g p p p Y p I Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Authorized by Oregon Revised Statute, Chapter 307.600 Multiple Unit Limited Under the Multiple-Unit Limited Tax Exemption (MULTE) Program, multiple-unit projects receive a ten-year property tax For Rent Active Gentrification Calibrate incentives to needed housingtypes, e.g., affordabilitylevels. Incentives for inclusion of E05 Tax Exemption p p g p p Y p p Y (INDIRECT) yp g' p exemption on structural improvements to the property as long as program requirements are met. Workforce (80-120% AMI) Multiple Unit Limited Tax Late Gentrification affordable units work best in strong markets. (MULTE) Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Exemption (MULTE) - City of Portland Authorized by Oregon Revised Homebuyer Opportunity ° Statute, 307.651. E06 Limited Tax Exemption Under the HOLTE Program, single-unit homes receive a ten-year property tax exemption on structural improvements to the home Affordable (30-80% AMI) (INDIRECT) Affordable & Vulnerable Calibrate incentives to needed housing types, e.g., affordability levels. Incentives for inclusion of Program (HOLTE) as long as the property and owner remain eligible per program requirements. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Homebuyer Opportunity Limited affordable units work best in strong markets. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Tax Exemption (HOLTE) - City of Portland Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) E07 Homestead Tax Consider allowing Homestead Tax on second homes to support development of affordable housing. Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- (DIRECT) Affordable & Vulnerable -- Property taxes are based on property values and so can go up regardless of the taxpayers' ability to pay. In the case of PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 10 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 131 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact I lull IGUVVI!GI J, I IJII Iy NI UpGI Ly LClAGJ I...QI I LIG QII UUJLCIL.IG LU I IUUJII IY CIIIUIUCIAJIIILy Qllu J LQLJIIILy. /-% LIJUI UJGU III Cl I IUI I ILJGI UI JUI IJUIL.UUI IJ Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Property Tax Relief for for mitigating these effects on those with limited incomes is by capping the amount of property tax that homeowners have to pay ° Active Gentrification Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Supporiting owners to stay in place as housing markets heat up is an important preservation E08 Income-Qualified as a share of their income. Some jurisdictions also provide relief to lower-income renters by treating some portion of their rent as Local Housing Solutions (DIRECT) Late Gentrification Homeowners attributable to property taxes and then providing an income tax credit to offset the increase in taxes. In addition to basing the VVorktorce (t3U-11U`% AMI) For Sale Exclusive strategy; it does not maintain the affordability of the unit at stake. benefit on income, eligibility for caps can also be restricted to specific populations such as seniors, disabled persons, and/or Market Rate (> 120% AMI) veterans. Qualified Opportunity Zones (QOZ) were created by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. These zones are designed to spur economic Affordable &Vulnerable The OZ program has been found to be generally poorly targeted and monitored; as with any E09 Investing into Federal development and job creation in distressed communities throughout the country and U.S. possessions by providing tax benefits to Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Opportunity Zones FAQ(IRS) INDIRECT EarlyGentrification investment incentive it is important to include stronganti-displacement protections for Opportunity Zones (OZ) investors who invest eligible capital into these communities. Taxpayers may defer tax on eligible capital gains by making an Workforce (80-120% AMI) p p appropriate investment in a Qualified Opportunity Fund and meeting other requirements. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Active Gentrification vulnerable residents and ensure their inclusion in economic opportunities. I Allow housing to be built and operated at market rate while allowing developers to choose a path that maintains or reduces rents Publicly-Subsidized (0 30% AMI) Delayed Tax ° Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent El Exemptions over time. Once the property falls below 80%AMI (but maintains HUD quality standards), tax exemptions would kick in. This Workforce (80-120% AMI) =or Sale -- (INDIRECT) All -- could be an alternative to upfront incentive dollars, SDC reductions, etc for providing affordable housing. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) I Category F : Land, Acquisition, Lease, and Partnerships These are strategies that secure land for needed housing, unlock the value of land for housing, and/or create partnerships that will catalyze housing developments. Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures L Impact Public purchasing of vacant/under-utilized sites of land in order to save for future affordable housing development. House Bill 2003, section 15 supports land banking: Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Active Gentrification Planning ahead for areas of public investment wth land banking can support affordable housing F01 Land Banking Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Metro TOD Program (DIRECT) Late Gentrification development without needing to purchase lots. In already developed, exclusive areas, using Exclusive public land may be the only cost effective strategy for building new affordable units. SECTION 15. (1) As used in this section, "public property" means all real property of the state, counties, cities, incorporated towns or villages, school districts, irrigation districts, drainage districts, ports, water districts, service districts, metropolitan service districts, housing authorities, public universities listed in ORS 352.002 or all other public or municipal corporations in this state. The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) enables local transit agencies to enter into Joint Development Agreements (JDAs) with Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) private or non-profit developers of low income housing, market-rate housing, and/or commercial development. Joint Development Joint Development Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Important foundation with focus on housing for transit dependent people (Low income, renters, F02 Agreements is a process by which public transit or other local or state agencies agree to make land available at donated or reduced prices for Workforce (80-120% AMI) car Sale -- (INDIRECT) All POC and immigrants) private development, which may include affordable housing. Projects must demonstrate benefit to transit operations (ridership) IVIdI KUL I\chlG k� I LU%o /AIVI I) and infrastructure and are subject to FTA approval. Land acquired by nonprofits or community-based organizations that maintain permanent ownership of land. Prospective Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) homeowners are able to enter long-term (i.e., 99-year), renewable leases at an affordable rate. Upon selling, homeowners only Affordable (30-80% AMI) Land trusts are a very strong anti-displacement measure in all neighborhood types, with F03 Community Land Trusts earn a portion of the increased property value, while the trust keeps the remainder, thereby preserving affordability for future low- Workforce 80-120% AMI For Sale -- DIRECT All immediate and long-term impacts. p p p Y p Yp g Y ( ) g p to moderate-income families Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Affordable & Vulnerable Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Partnerships between government and the private sector and/or nonprofits have the capacity to bring resources to the table that ° Early Gentrification Setting clear public goals; including monitoring of provision of public benefits; and including Public/Private Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F04 would otherwise not be available if each institution were able to help communities provide housing on its own. This can come in ° -- (INDIRECT) Active Gentrification financial penalties for not meeting goals are important for strengthening community benefits Partnerships (P3) the form of coalitions, affordable housing task forces, and collaboratives. Workforce (80-120/o AMI) For Sale Late Gentrification agreements in public-private partnerships. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) g p p p p Exclusive Preventing displacement and preserving "naturally occurring" affordable housing through acquisition, low-interest loans/revolving Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Preserving Low-Cost Early Gentrification loan fund for preservation, and/or code enforcement. Example: The Oregon Legislature committed $15 million in lottery bonds to Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Preservation is cost-effective compared to new construction and can prevent displacement in F05 Rental Housing to NOAH Impact Fund DIRECT Active Gentrification Mitigate Displacement Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) in 2019 to create a naturally occurring affordable housing loan fund. Modeled Late Gentrification the immediate term for households in place. after the Greater Minnesota Housing Fund. Manufactured home parks often provide a form of affordable housing stock, but are particularly vulnerable to redevelopment City of Portland pressures since lots are temporarily leased out. In order to preserve safe, affordable options into the future, manufactured home Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Preserving Safe, parks may be protected through assistance that allows community purchase of the underlying land, manufactured homes and ° Affordable & Vulnerable Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F06 Affordable provide funds used to maintain upkeep of these dwelling units. This strategy is often implemented through use of Land Trusts, DIRECT Early Gentrification�d0-120% AMI) For Sale Manufactured Homes Resident-Owned Cooperatives, Public Ownership of Land, or Condominium Conversion of the real estate assets to preserve the °""""'"" ° Active Gentrification communit ies . Oregon Housingand CommunityServices (OHCS) has regularly received lotterybonds orgeneral funds from the Market Rate (> 120/o AMI) OHCS Mfd Dwelling Parks y( ) g g y Program Oregon Legislature to preserve manufactured home parks through either Resident Owned Cooperatives or Non-profit ownership. Providing Information Providing information to small, local developers that will help them understand land use permitting processes and give them a For Rent F07 and Fdlinatinn to Small -- INDIRECT All -- PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 11 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 132 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact _. _.._ ________ __ _.. - sense of clarity and certainty about requirements so they can better provide smaller scale housing at an affordable level. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale ""-"--- ' Developers ° Market Rate (> 120/o AMI) Conversion of Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Affordable & Vulnerable Underperforming or Acquisition of underperforming or distressed commercial assets (commercial, retail, industrial, or hotel) or partnerships with Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F08 Distressed Commercial owners of the assets for conversion into needed housing. Workforce (80-120% AMI) -- DIRECT Early Gentrification Most likely to be cost effective in some neighborhood market types. VI JQIG Assets Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Active Gentrification The US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) maylease land for upto 85years to developers of projects whichprovide the VA Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Enhanced Use Lease of p p p Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Housing Authority of Douglas F09 Federal Land with compensation. Such enhanced use leases have been used to provide land for permanent affordable housing for people County (DIRECT) All -- experiencing homelessness including veterans in Oregon, Minnesota and Washington States. Prioritize Housing on Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F10 City/County Owned Surplus property suitable for housing is offered up for affordable development. Workforce (80-120% AMI) Sale City of Eugene (DIRECT) All -- Land Combine Community Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) F11 Land Trust with Limited Combine a Community Land Trust (CLT) with a Limited Equity Cooperative for a lower barrier entry to homeownership of a share Affordable (30-80% AMI) SquareOne Villages DIRECT All -- Equity Cooperative of a permanent small/tiny home community. Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Model Sell land at the State or City's cost (below market) to developers of affordable housing. Long-term lease at very minimal cost to Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Surplus Land for Affordable (30-80(30-80/° AMI) For Rent F12 Affordable Housing developers for land the City is not yet ready to surplus. County surplus of foreclosed land to affordable housing developers and/or Workforce ( `/o AMI) =or Sale City of Bend (DIRECT) All -- housing authority. ° Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) F13 McKinney-Vento For Rent Cities may partner with the Federal Government to surplus Federal land for homeless housing or services under McKinney Vento. City of Bend (DIRECT) All -- Federal Surplus Affordable housing providers could be offered a Right of First Refusal for city, county, or state owned land when the land would be Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Right of First Refusal forAffordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent CASA of Oregon - Mfd Housing C F14 Land Purchase used for affordable housing. Examples include a manufactured home program where residents can buy out the manufactured ��/orkforce (80-120% AMI; For Sale Op Dev (DIRECT) All -- home park when the owner is ready to sell. Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Ordinances that Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) F15 Address Zombie More assertive tax foreclosures to enable zombie housingto be rehabbed into occupied housing. Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent -- INDIRECT Affordable & Vulnerable -- p -- Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Housing Market Rate (> 120% AMI) Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Regulatory Agreement, between the jurisdiction and developer, in place with the land sale that keeps the units affordable for 20 Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent Active Gentrification F16 Regulatory Agreement years in exchange for SDC waivers. This is straightforward without going through a difficult or costly process. Workforce (80-120% AMI) =or Sale City of Beaverton (DIRECT) Late Gentrification Prepare for agreement expiration with preservation plans Iv— I .u1„ \ 120% AMI) A jurisdiction would establish designated sites with a completely different set of regulations than apply to the balance of the public Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Designated Affordable and private building sites. The sites would be overseen by an Affordable Housing Commission, that is empowered to prioritize, Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F17 Housing Sites fast track, and approve affordable housing projects (with designated and required affordability objectives) and bypass the majority Workforce (80-120% AMI) -- (DIRECT) All -- of the city's fees and regulations. The Commission would have its own set of requirements (structural approval, zoning allowance, etc.), but they would be streamlined, and tailored to facilitate a quicker and much less expensive process. Over the past few decades, faith institutions across the country have been declining. This has prompted conversations within Utilize Surplus Land different faith communities about how to refocus their mission of social change. The housing affordability crisis in many cities Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Expanding Opportunities for Owned by Faith-Based around the country has brought these institutions into the work of creating affordable housing in their communities. This strategy Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F18 Organizations for would: 1) Identify faith and community-based organizations that are interested in offering their available land for development of Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale Affordable Housing, Metro and (DIRECT) All -- Affordable Housing affordable housing, 2) Provide design and finance consultation for three organizations to prepare them for future affordable Market Rate (> 120% AMI) City of Portland housing development projects, and 3) Determine barriers to development and how those can be addressed and/or streamlined. The Center for Housing Policy, Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Washington DC Affordable Housing Prepare an inventory of subsidized and naturally occurring affordable housing to support proactive policies intended to preserve Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F19 Preservation Inventory the affordable housing stock. This strategy is intended to help offset some of the need for costly new construction. For Sale Opportunity Zone Toolkit, US (DIRECT) All -- Department of Housing and Urban Development PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 12 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 133 OF 136 Tenure Housing Neighborhood # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Typology Mitigating Measures Impact Provide residents, property owners, property managers, realtors, lenders and others involved with real estate transactions with Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Fair Housing Education, access to Fair Housing information and referrals. Ensure that city staff know how to identify potential Fair Housing violations and Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F20 Referral, and Other make referrals to the Fair Housing Council of Oregon and state and local enforcement agencies. Partner with and fund Fair Workforce (80-120% AMI) -- (DIRECT) All -- Services Housing Council of Oregon to provide periodic Fair Housing Audit Testing, customized outreach and education and other Market Rate (> 120% AMI) specialized services. Most public subsidies and tax incentive programs are complex due to the need for regulation and corruption prevention, imposing many impediments to developing affordable housing. Jurisdictions would participate in a public REIT that buys turn-key projects for set costs. This would motivate mission-minded developers to drive down cost knowing that risk is minimal by having a buyer at Publicly-Subsidized (< 30% AMI) Public or Mission-Driven the end. If the developer doesn't deliver the required specs, quality, and competitive construction cost, then they have to sell or Affordable (30-80% AMI) For Rent F21 REITs and Turn-Key rent on the open market or find other incentives in current, standard fashion. The jurisdiction could invest state pension funds in Workforce (80-120% AMI) For Sale -- (DIRECT) All -- Delivery these REITs. Note: Though this strategy has been suggested by the housing development community, it is not clear if this program is currently available to jurisdictions in the State of Oregon Category Z: Custom Options Any other Housing Production Strategy not listed in Categories A through F that the jurisdiction wishes to implement will be outlined in this section and numbered accordingly. Tenure Housing # Strategy Description Affordability Target Target Source (if available) Equity Impact Neighborhood Typology Mitigating Measures Z01 TBD Any other Housing Production Strategy not listed above in Categories A through F that the jurisdiction wishes to implement should -- -- -- -- -- be filled in here and numbered accordingly. PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 13 OF 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 134 OF 136 House Bill 2003— Draft Work Plan Tentative Schedule HB 2003 Background and Requirements,Work Plan: CC Study Session Jun 21, 2022 PC Work Session Jun 27, 2022 Refine Work Plan based on CC/PC input, Request for Proposals Aug—Sep 2022 Consultant selection and contracting Sep—early Oct 2022 City Council Appoints Advisory Committee Members Sep—Oct 2022 Project Kickoff Oct—Dec 2022 Education, Outreach, and Engagement Oct 2022—Mar 2024 Housing Needs Projection Oct 2022—Feb 2023 Buildable Lands Inventory Oct 2022—Mar 2023 Residential Land Needs Analysis Mar—Jun 2023 Final HNA Report Jun—Sep 2023 Analyze Housing Land Supply Policy Options Jun—Sep 2023 Adoption of HNA Sep- Dec 2023 Analyze Housing Production Strategies (HPS) Jun 2023—Feb 2024 Final HPS Report Feb 2023—Mar 2024 Adoption of HPS Apr—Jul 2024 Draft Scope of Work 1. Task 1:Project Kickoff (October—December 2022) 1.1 Conduct research and information gathering. 1.2 Refine project schedule and plan for public involvement. 1.3 Create initial outreach materials. 1.4 Host kickoff meeting. Work Products: • Refined Project Schedule and Public Involvement Plan • Summary of major tasks, including technical memorandums and outreach events • Initial Outreach Materials Meetings: • Two (2) Project Management Team (PMT) meetings • Project Kick-off meeting 2. Task 2:Housing Needs Analysis (October 2022—September 2023) PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 1 OF 2 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 135 OF 136 2.1 Draft Housing Needs Projection. 2.2 Draft Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI). 2.3 Draft Residential Land Needs Analysis(RLNA). 2.4 Draft Housing Needs Analysis (HNA)Summary. 2.5 Adopt HNA as an appendix to Comprehensive Plan. Work Product: Housing Needs Analysis Report Meetings: Monthly Project Management Team (PMT) meeting(s) 3. Task 3:Housing Production Strategy (June 2023—March 2024) 3.1 Outline housing strategy alternatives. 3.2 Refine housing strategy recommendations. 3.3 Draft Housing Production Strategy. 3.4 Adopt HPS as an appendix to Comprehensive Plan. Work Products: • Housing Strategy Options Memo • Housing Production Strategy Report PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 2 OF 2 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-1/PAGE 136 OF 136 o4jLA o MEMORANDUM o TO: Planning Commission/Commission for Citizen Involvement FROM: Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager SUBJECT: House Bill 2003 Work Session 112 (PP 22-0005) DATE: January 10, 2023 MEETING DATE: January 23, 2023 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY &ACTION REQUESTED This memo provides background on the Commission's upcoming work session scheduled for January 23, 2023, which will include a presentation from project consultants at MIG outlining the requirements of House Bill 2003 (HB 2003) as related to updating the City's Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) and developing a Housing Production Strategy (HPS). The presentation will also cover a proposed public involvement plan and include an update on the progress of the Housing Production Strategy Task Force (Task Force). The City is required to update its HNA by December 31, 2023, and to complete an HPS by December 31, 2024. The City Council first prioritized this work as part of their 2022 goals and initiatives, which included continuing the multi-year work plan to complete work on key housing initiatives—including HB 2003 compliance. The purpose of the January 23 work session is for the Commission to learn more about what is required for compliance with House Bill 2003 and to provide guidance to staff on the proposed public outreach strategy for preparing the HNA, the first draft of which the Planning Commission will review at their work session on April 10. BACKGROUND House Bill 2003 HB 2003 was adopted during the same legislative session (2019) as House Bill 2001 (HB 2001), in order to help local jurisdictions meet the housing needs of residents throughout the state (see Attachment A). The bill requires Oregon cities with over 10,000 residents to analyze the future housing needs of their community through an HNA and to develop strategies that promote the development of such needed housing through an HPS. - Re3o+:cl. :eP•r-=, Trust. 503-635-0290 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 1 OF 56 Page 2 In November 2020, the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) adopted implementing rules for HB 2003, which are contained in OAR 660-008-0045 through -0070. These rules established criteria for compliance, including the components that are required to be included within an HPS Report. For more information about these requirements, including an overview of the required components of an HNA and HPS Report, please see the meeting materials from Work Session #1 and Attachment B. On June 21, 2022, the City Council approved staff's work plan for compliance with HB 2003 including issuing a request for proposals (RFP) to solicit consultant services. Council also committed t❑ appoint an ad-hoc Task Force to provide high-level policy guidance to the Commission and City Council as the City proceeds with HB 2003 compliance. The Commission held their first work session on this subject on June 27, 2022, in order to provide guidance to staff on the proposed work plan prior to issuing the RFP. On October 4, 2022, the City Council adopted Resolution 22-30 creating the HPS Task Force and appointing its members (see Attachment C), The City subsequently contracted with MIG, Inc. (with subconsultant Johnson Economics) to complete the scope of work outlined in Attachment D. PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT PLAN Staff and the above-mentioned consultant team have prepared a ❑raft Public Involvement Plan that provides a working list of the public involvement activities proposed as part of HNA and HPS scope of work (see Attachment E), including the following methods: • Housing Task Force—see discussion under Housing Production Strategy Task Force, below. • Public Workshops/Open Houses—two (2) online workshops or open houses will be held as part of this effort, one with a focus on items related to the Draft HNA Report and one focused on items related to the HPS Report. Meetings are expected to include online surveys that summarize material and guide participants through a set of questions. ■ Stakeholder Interviews—Stakeholder interviews with community members and housing partners will be conducted to supplement the expertise and experience of the Housing Task Force. • Project Website -The City will host a website that describes the project invites public input on draft documents as they are available. The website will provide email contact information for the project. ■ Additional Outreach Materials--This will include developing materials such as "fact sheets" or other short documents that highlight housing issues, challenges, and potential solutions. It may also include presentation materials for community group or stakeholder meetings, or brief online surveys. These engagement efforts will be designed in order to prioritize underrepresented communities within the city, including Black, Indigenous and People of Color; renters; low- income households; immigrant or refugee community members; veterans; people with disabilities; seniors; agricultural workers; and people currently experiencing homelessness or LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 2 OF 56 Page 3 who formerly experienced homelessness. The engagement will be coordinated with other events, including housing production reporting required under 2018's House Bill 4006.` Housing Production Strategy Task Force As mentioned above, the City Council appointed members to an HPS Task Force via resolution in October of last year (see Attachment C), The HPS Task Force is comprised of individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds, identities, income ranges, and professions, with representation from elected and appointed officials, members of City boards and commissions, housing producers, and housing consumers within Lake Oswego. The goal ❑f the Task Force is to represent a wide range of experiences and ideas related to housing, and to develop recommendations addressing those perspectives. The role of the HPS Task Force will be to provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission by reviewing draft materials, providing feedback related to their personal ❑r professional experience and opinions, and informing the broader public about this process through their individual networks. The Task Force will also recommend outreach strategies, Comprehensive Plan amendments, or other actions to update the City's HNA and develop an HPS, consistent with adopted goals and initiatives related to housing. The HPS Task Force is expected to meet a minimum of five times from December 2022 through late 2024— including a Kickoff Meeting, at least two meetings dedicated to the Draft HNA Report, and at least two meetings dedicated to the ❑raft HPS Report. The Task Force held their "Kickoff Meeting" virtually on December 16, 2022, during which members received a brief presentation outlining the background of House Bill 2003 and reviewed the proposed work plan. The Task Force also adopted the bylaws in Attachment F and elected Sarah Walker as Chair and John Turchi as Vice Chair at the meeting. The next meeting of the Task Force is tentatively scheduled for March 2023, as shown in Attachment E. The Task Force is expected to complete its work in time to allow the Commission to consider Comprehensive Plan amendments to update the City's HNA by September 2023, so that the City Council may adopt an HB 2003-compliant HNA no later than December 2023 as required by the State. The Commission will need to begin review of housing production strategy alternatives by February 2024, so that the City Council may develop a strategy within one- year of the adoption of the updated HNA as required by the State. WORK PLAN UPDATE Staff has updated the previously-discussed multi-phased work plan and schedule for this project. (see Attachment G). The updated schedule incorporates more detail about specific Commission and City Council meeting dates while still maintaining regular "check-ins" with the Commission and City Council prior to the consideration of a draft HNA at public hearings, as well as "check-ins" in early 2024 prior to the consideration of a draft HPS Report. The consultant and City staff began work late last year on a projection of housing need, an inventory of buildable residential lands, an analysis of residential land needs, and other ' Housing Production Reporting https://www.oregon.govlied/UP/Pages/Reporting.aspx LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 3 OF 56 Page 4 components required to be included the updated HNA document. The Commission will review initial drafts of this work when it meets to discuss the project next on April 10, 2023. ATTACHMENTS (LINKS) A. Enrolled House Bill 2003, 06/30/2019 B. HPS Task Force Overview Memo, 12/07/2022 C. Adopted Resolution 22-30, 10/04/2022 D. Project Scope ❑f Work, 10/17/2022 E. Draft Public Involvement Plan, 01/10/2023 F. Adopted HPS Task Force Charter& Bylaws, 12/16/2022 G. ❑raft Project Schedule, 12/07/2022 To view these documents and other documents in the public records file,visit the Planning Project webpage: https://www.ci.oswego.or.us/Mann ing/pp-22-0005-housing-needs-and-production-strategies LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 4 OF 56 80th OREGON LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY--2019 Regular Session Enrolled House Bill 2003 Sponsored by Representative KOTEK; Representatives FAHEY, KENY-GUYER, WILDE CHAPTER AN ACT Relating to buildings; creating new provisions; amending ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319, 197.320, 215.416, 215.441, 227.175, 227.500 and 455.062 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, and section 3, chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39); and declaring an emergency. Be It Enacted by the People of the State of Oregon: SECTION 1. (1) As used in this section: (a) "Area median income" means the median income for households established by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. (b) "Existing housing stock" means housing, by affordability level and type, actually constructed in a city or Metro. (c) "High income" means above 120 percent of the area median income. (d) "Housing shortage" means the difference between the estimated housing units of different affordability levels and housing types needed to accommodate the existing popu- lation and the existing housing stock, measured in dwelling units. (e) "Low income" means income above 50 percent and at or below 80 percent of the area median income. (f) "Metro" means a metropolitan service district organized under ORS chapter 268. (g) "Moderate income" means income above 80 percent and at or below 120 percent of the area median income. (h) "Region" has the meaning given that term in ORS 284.752. (i) "Very low income" means income at or below 50 percent of the area median income. (2) The Housing and Community Services Department, in coordination with the Depart- ment of Land Conservation and Development and the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, shall develop a methodology for calculating: (a) A regional housing needs analysis that identifies the total number of housing units necessary to accommodate anticipated populations in a region over the next 20 years based on: (A) Trends in density and in the average mix of housing types of urban residential de- velopment; (B) Demographic and population trends; (C) Economic trends and cycles; and (D) Equitable distribution of publicly supported housing within a region. (b) An estimate of existing housing stock of each city and Metro. (c) A housing shortage analysis for each city and Metro. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 1 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 5 OF 56 (d) An estimate of the number of housing units necessary to accommodate anticipated population growth over the next 20 years for each city and Metro. (3) The methodologies for calculating the regional housing needs analysis, the estimate of existing housing stock, the housing shortage analysis and the estimate of housing neces- sary to accommodate growth that are developed under subsection (2) of this section must classify housing hy: (a) Housing type, including attached and detached single-family housing, multifamily housing and manufactured dwellings or mobile homes; and (b) Affordability, by housing that is affordable to households with: (A) Very low income; (B) Low income; (C) Moderate income; or (D) High income. (4) No later than September 1, 2020, the Housing and Community Services Department, in coordination with the Department of Land Conservation and Development and the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, shall conduct for each region a regional housing needs analysis and, for each city and Metro, shall estimate existing housing stock, conduct a housing shortage analysis and estimate the housing necessary to accommodate growth. (5) In developing the methodologies and conducting the analyses under this section, the Housing and Community Services Department may: (a) Consult or contract with subject matter experts, cities and Metro, regional solutions centers described in ORS 284.754 (2) and other jurisdictions that have created or conducted regional housing needs analyses. (b) Consider the most recent consolidated population forecast produced by the Portland State University Population Research Center in making any relevant calculation or forecast. (c) Consider any other relevant existing analyses, data and other information collected or produced by state agencies or public entities. (d) Make changes to the regional boundaries in order to make regions more accurately align with shared employment, transportation or housing market dynamics. SECTION 2. (1) No later than March 1, 2021, the Housing and Community Services De- partment, in consultation with the Department of Land Conservation and Development and the Oregon Department of Administrative Services, shall submit a report, in the manner provided in ORS 192.245 to an appropriate committee of the Legislative Assembly, that summarizes the findings of the regional housing needs analysis, estimate of housing stock, housing shortage analysis and estimate of housing necessary to accommodate growth con- ducted under section 1 (4) of this 2019 Act. (2) No later than March 1, 2021, the Department of Land Conservation and Development, in consultation with the Oregon Department of Administrative Services and the Housing and Community Services Department, shall submit a report, in the manner provided in ORS 192.245, to an appropriate committee of the Legislative Assembly that evaluates: (a) Whether a regional housing needs analysis and housing shortage analysis described in section 1 of this 2019 Act could appropriately allocate among the cities or local govern- ments in a region the housing shortage described; (b) How a regional housing needs analysis and housing shortage analysis may compare to existing assessments of housing need and capacity conducted by local governments under ORS 197.296 (3) and (10) in terms of: (A) Cost and cost effectiveness; (B) Reliability and accuracy; (C) Repeatability; and (D) Predictability; Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 2 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 6 OF 56 (c) How a regional housing needs analysis and housing shortage analysis may relate to statewide planning goals related to housing and any rules and policies adopted pursuant to these goals and ORS 197.295 to 197.314; (d) Whether different boundaries would be more appropriate for defining regions within the regional housing needs analysis based on: (A) Relevance of data in appropriately defining a commuting, employment or housing market; or (B) Ease or cost of collecting or analyzing data; (e) Other ways in which the regional housing needs analysis or housing shortage analysis could be improved; and (f) Whether the regional housing needs analysis, or an improved version, could serve as an acceptable methodology statewide for Land use planning relating to housing. (3) In preparing the report required under subsection (2) of this section, the Department of Land Conservation and Development may consult or contract with other state agencies, subject matter experts, private firms, local governments, regional solutions centers de- scribed in ORS 284.754 (2) and other jurisdictions that have created or conducted regional housing needs analyses. SECTION 3. Sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act are added to and made a part of ORS 197.295 to 197.314. SECTION 4. (1) A city with a population greater than 10,000 shall develop and adopt a housing production strategy under this section no later than one year after: (a) The city's deadline for completing a housing capacity analysis under ORS 197.296 (2)(a); (b) The city's deadline for completing a housing capacity analysis under ORS 197.296 (10)(b); or (c) A date scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development Commission following the allocation of housing capacity to the city by a metropolitan service district under ORS 197.299 (2)(d). (2) A housing production strategy must include a list of specific actions, including the adoption of measures and policies, that the city shall undertake to promote development within the city to address a housing need identified under ORS 197.296 (6) for the most recent 20-year period described in ORS 197.296 (2)(b). Actions under this subsection may include: (a) The reduction of financial and regulatory impediments to developing needed housing, including removing or easing approval standards or procedures for needed housing at higher densities or that is affordable; (b) The creation of financial and regulatory incentives for development of needed hous- ing, including creating incentives for needed housing at higher densities or that is affordable; and (c) The development of a plan to access resources available at local, regional, state and national levels to increase the availability and affordability of needed housing. (3) In creating a housing production strategy, a city shall review and consider: (a) Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households living in existing needed housing; (b) Market conditions affecting the provision of needed housing; (c) Measures already adopted by the city to promote the development of needed housing; (d) Existing and expected barriers to the development of needed housing; and (e) For each action the city includes in its housing production strategy: (A) The schedule for its adoption; (B) The schedule for its implementation; (C) Its expected magnitude of impact on the development of needed housing; and (D) The time frame over which it is expected to impact needed housing. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 3 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 7 OF 56 (4) The housing production strategy must include within its index a copy of the city's most recently completed survey under section 1 (2), chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018. (5) The adoption of a housing production strategy is not a land use decision and is not subject to appeal or review except as provided in section 5 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 5. (1) No later than 20 days after a city's adoption or amendment of a housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act, a city shall submit the adopted strategy or amended strategy to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. (2) The submission under subsection (1) of this section must include copies of: (a) The signed decision adopting the housing production strategy or amended strategy; (b) The text of the housing production strategy clearly indicating any amendments to the most recent strategy submitted under this section; (c) A brief narrative summary of the housing production strategy; and (d) The information reviewed and considered under section 6 (2) of this 2019 Act. (3) On the same day the city submits notice of the housing production strategy or amended strategy, the city shall provide a notice to persons that participated in the pro- ceedings that led to the adoption of the strategy and requested notice in writing. (4) Within 10 days of receipt of the submission under subsection (1) of this section, the department shall provide notice to persons described under ORS 197.615 (3). (5) The notices given under subsections (3) and (4) of this section must state: (a) How and where materials described in subsection (2) of this section may be freely obtained; (b) That comments on the strategy may be submitted to the department within 45 days after the department has received the submission; and (c) That there is no further right of appeal. (6) Based upon criteria adopted by the Land Conservation and Development Commission, including any criteria adopted under section 6 (2) of this 2019 Act, the department shall, within 120 days after receiving the submission under subsection (1) of this section: (a) Approve the housing production strategy; (b) Approve the housing production strategy, subject to further review and actions under section 6 (2) of this 2019 Act; or (c) Remand the housing production strategy for further modification as identified by the department. (7) A determination by the department under subsection (6) of this section is not a land use decision and is final and not subject to appeal. SECTION 6. (1) The Land Conservation and Development Commission, in consultation with the Housing and Community Services Department, shall adopt criteria for reviewing and identifying cities with a population greater than 10,000 that have not sufficiently: (a) Achieved production of needed housing within their jurisdiction; or (b) Implemented a housing production strategy adopted under section 4 of this 2019 Act. (2) The criteria adopted by the commission under subsection (1) of this section may in- clude the city's: (a) Unmet housing need as described in ORS 197.296 (6); (b) Unmet housing need in proportion to the city's population; (c) Percentage of households identified as severely rent burdened as described in section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018; (d) Recent housing development; (e) Recent adoption of a housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act or adoption of actions pursuant to a housing production strategy; (f) Recent or frequent previous identification by the Department of Land Conservation and Development under this section; or (g) Other attributes that the commission considers relevant. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 8 OF 56 (3) The Department of Land Conservation and Development may review cities under the criteria adopted under subsection (2) of this section for the purposes of prioritizing actions by the department, including: (a) Awarding available technical or financial resources; (b) Providing enhanced review and oversight of the city's housing production strategy; (c) Requiring a report and explanation if a city does not implement an action within the approximate time frame scheduled within a housing production strategy; (d) Entering into agreements with the city relating to the city's modification or imple- mentation of its housing production strategy; or (e) Petitioning the commission to act under ORS 197.319 to 197.335 to require the city to comply with ORS 197.295 to 197.314 or statewide land use planning goals related to housing or urbanization. SECTION 7. No later than December 31, 2019, the Land Conservation and Development Commission shall adopt a schedule by which metropolitan service districts and cities de- scribed in ORS 197.296 (2)(a)(B) and (10)(c)(B) shall demonstrate sufficient buildable lands. Dates in the schedule may not be earlier than two years following the commission's creation of rules implementing sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act and the amendments to ORS 197.296 and 197.299 by sections 8 and 9 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 8. ORS 197.296 is amended to read: 197.296. (1)(a) The provisions of subsections (2) to (9) of this section apply to metropolitan ser- vice district regional framework plans and local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of 25,000 or more. (b) The Land Conservation and Development Commission may establish a set of factors under which additional cities are subject to the provisions of this section. In establishing the set of factors required under this paragraph, the commission shall consider the size of the city, the rate of popu- lation growth of the city or the proximity of the city to another city with a population of 25,000 or more or to a metropolitan service district. (2)(a) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] A local government shall demonstrate that its comprehensive plan or regional framework plan pro- vides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years: (A) At periodic review under ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) As scheduled by the commission: (i) At least once each eight years for local governments that are not within a metropol- itan service district; or (ii) At least once each six years for a metropolitan service district; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide plan- ning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. (b) The 20-year period shall commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the [periodic or legislative] review under paragraph (a) of this subsection. (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of housing need by type and density range, in accordance with ORS 197.303 and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. (4)(a) For the purpose of the inventory described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, "buildable lands" includes: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 9 OF 56 (A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses under the existing planning or zoning; and (D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment. (b) For the purpose of the inventory and determination of housing capacity described in sub- section (3)(a) of this section, the local government must demonstrate consideration of: (A) The extent that residential development is prohibited or restricted by local regulation and ordinance, state law and rule or federal statute and regulation; (B) A written long term contract or easement for radio, telecommunications or electrical facili- ties, if the written contract or easement is provided to the local government; and (C) The presence of a single family dwelling or other structure on a lot or parcel. (c) Except for land that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment, a local government shall create a map or document that may be used to verify and identify specific lots or parcels that have been determined to be buildable lands. (5)(a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) and (c) of this subsection, the determination of housing capacity and need pursuant to subsection (3) of this section must be based on data relating to land within the urban growth boundary that has been collected since the last [periodic] review [or] under subsection (2)(a)(B) of this section [five years, whichever is greater]. The data shall include: (A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development that have actually occurred; (B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development; (C) Demographic and population trends; (D) Economic trends and cycles; and (E) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred on the buildable lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. (b) A local government shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity and need. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (c) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period for economic cycles and trends longer than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the analysis of a wider geographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more ac- curate, complete and reliable data relating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis per- formed pursuant to paragraph (a) of this subsection. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in a determination performed under this para- graph. (6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section, the local government shall take one or more of the following actions to accommodate the additional housing need: (a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, the local government shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public school districts and the local government that has the authority to approve the urban growth boundary; (b) Amend its comprehensive plan, regional framework plan, functional plan or land use regu- lations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential develop- ment will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 10 OF 56 expansion of the urban growth boundary. A local government or metropolitan service district that takes this action shall monitor and record the level of development activity and development density by housing type following the date of the adoption of the new measures; or (c) Adopt a combination of the actions described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this subsection. (7) Using the analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, the local government shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, the local government, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. (8)(a) A local government outside a metropolitan service district that takes any actions under subsection (6) or (7) of this section shall demonstrate that the comprehensive plan and land use regulations comply with goals and rules adopted by the commission and implement ORS 197.295 to 197.314. (b) The local government shall determine the density and mix of housing types anticipated as a result of actions taken under subsections (6) and (7) of this section and monitor and record the ac- tual density and mix of housing types achieved. The local government shall compare actual and anticipated density and mix. The local government shall submit its comparison to the commission at the next [periodic review or at the next legislative] review of its urban growth boundary[, which- ever comes first] under subsection (2)(a) of this section. (9) In establishing that actions and measures adopted under subsections (6) and (7) of this sec- tion demonstrably increase the likelihood of higher density residential development, the local gov- ernment shall at a minimum ensure that land zoned for needed housing is in locations appropriate for the housing types identified under subsection (3) of this section and is zoned at density ranges that are likely to be achieved by the housing market using the analysis in subsection (3) of this section. Actions or measures, or both, may include but are not limited to: (a) Increases in the permitted density on existing residential land; (b) Financial incentives for higher density housing; (c) Provisions permitting additional density beyond that generally allowed in the zoning district in exchange for amenities and features provided by the developer; (d) Removal or easing of approval standards or procedures; (e) Minimum density ranges; (f) Redevelopment and infilI strategies; (g) Authorization of housing types not previously allowed by the plan or regulations; (h) Adoption of an average residential density standard; and (i) Rezoning or redesignation of nonresidential land. (10)(a) The provisions of this subsection apply to local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of less than 25,000. (b) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] As required under paragraph (c) of this subsection, a city shall, ac- cording to rules of the commission: (A) Determine the estimated housing needs within the jurisdiction for the next 20 years; (B) Inventory the supply of buildable lands available within the urban growth boundary to ac- commodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection; and (C) Adopt measures necessary to accommodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection. (c) The actions required under paragraph (b) of this subsection shall be undertaken: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 11 OF 56 (A) At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) On a schedule established by the commission for cities with a population greater than 10,000, not to exceed once each eight years; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the applica- tion of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. [(c)] (d) For the purpose of the inventory described in this subsection, "buildable lands" includes those lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. SECTION Sa. If House Bill 2001 becomes law, section 8 of this 2019 Act (amending ORS 197.296) is repealed and ORS 197.296, as amended by section 5, chapter. , Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled House Bill 2001), is amended to read: 197.296. (1)(a) The provisions of subsections (2) to (9) of this section apply to metropolitan ser- vice district regional framework plans and local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of 25,000 or more. (b) The Land Conservation and Development Commission may establish a set of factors under which additional cities are subject to the provisions of this section. In establishing the set of factors required under this paragraph, the commission shall consider the size of the city, the rate of popu- lation growth of the city or the proximity of the city to another city with a population of 25,000 or more or to a metropolitan service district. (2)(a) [At periodic review pursuant to ORB 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] A local government shall demonstrate that its comprehensive plan or regional framework plan pro- vides sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years: (A) At periodic review under ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) As scheduled by the commission: (i) At least once each eight years for local governments that are not within a metropol- itan service district; or (ii) At least once each six years for a metropolitan service district; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan or regional framework plan that concerns the urban growth boundary and requires the application of a statewide plan- ning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. (b) The 20-year period shall commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the [periodic or legislative] review under paragraph (a) of this subsection. (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. (4)(a) For the purpose of the inventory described in subsection (3)(a) of this section, "buildable lands" includes: (A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use; (C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses under the existing planning or zoning; and (D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment. (b) For the purpose of the inventory and determination of housing capacity described in sub- section (3)(a) of this section, the local government must demonstrate consideration of: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 8 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 12 OF 56 (A) The extent that residential development is prohibited or restricted by local regulation and ordinance, state law and rule or federal statute and regulation; (B) A written long term contract or easement for radio, telecommunications or electrical facili- ties, if the written contract or easement is provided to the local government; and (C) The presence of a single family dwelling or other structure on a lot or parcel. (c) Except for land that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment, a local government shall create a map or document that may be used to verify and identify specific lots or parcels that have been determined to be buildable lands. (5)(a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) and (c) of this subsection, the determination of housing capacity pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section must be based on data relating to land within the urban growth boundary that has been collected since the last review [or six years, whichever is greater] under subsection (2)(a)(B) of this section. The data shall include: (A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development that have actually occurred; (B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential development; (C) Market factors that may substantially impact future urban residential development; and (D) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred on the buildable lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. (b) A local government shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this sub- section if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (c) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period longer than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the analysis of a wider ge- ographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more accurate, complete and reliable data relating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis performed pursuant to paragraph (a) of this subsection. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in a determination performed under this paragraph. (6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection (3)(a) of this section, the local government shall take one or both of the following actions to accommodate the additional housing need: (a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, the local government shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public school districts and the local government that has the authority to approve the urban growth boundary. (b) Amend its comprehensive plan, regional framework plan, functional plan or land use regu- lations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential develop- ment will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without expansion of the urban growth boundary. A local government or metropolitan service district that takes this action shall adopt findings regarding the density expectations assumed to result from measures adopted under this paragraph based upon the factors listed in ORS 197.303 (2) and data in subsection (5)(a) of this section. The density expectations may not project an increase in resi- dential capacity above achieved density by more than three percent without quantifiable validation of such departures. For a local government located outside of a metropolitan service district, a quantifiable validation must demonstrate that the assumed housing capacity has been achieved in areas that are zoned to allow no greater than the same authorized density level within the local jurisdiction or a jurisdiction in the same region. For a metropolitan service district, a quantifiable validation must demonstrate that the assumed housing capacity has been achieved in areas that are Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 9 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 13 OF 56 zoned to allow no greater than the same authorized density level within the metropolitan service district. (c) As used in this subsection, "authorized density level" has the meaning given that term in ORS 227.175. (7) Using the housing need analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, the local government shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, the local government, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. (8)(a) A local government outside a metropolitan service district that takes any actions under subsection (6) or (7) of this section shall demonstrate that the comprehensive plan and land use regulations comply with goals and rules adopted by the commission and implement ORS 197.295 to 197.314. (b) A local government shall determine the density and mix of housing types anticipated as a result of actions taken under subsections (6) and (7) of this section and monitor and record the ac- tual density and mix of housing types achieved following the adoption of these actions. The local government shall compare actual and anticipated density and mix. The local government shall sub- mit its comparison to the commission at the next [periodic review or at the next legislative] review of its urban growth boundary[, whichever comes first] under subsection (2)(a) of this section. (9) In establishing that actions and measures adopted under subsections (6) and (7) of this sec- tion demonstrably increase the likelihood of higher density residential development, the local gov- ernment shall at a minimum ensure that land zoned for needed housing is in locations appropriate for the housing types identified under subsection (3) of this section, is zoned at density ranges that are likely to be achieved by the housing market using the analysis in subsection (3) of this section and is in areas where sufficient urban services are planned to enable the higher density development to occur over the 20-year period. Actions or measures, or both, may include but are not limited to: (a) Increases in the permitted density on existing residential land; (b) Financial incentives for higher density housing; (c) Provisions permitting additional density beyond that generally allowed in the zoning district in exchange for amenities and features provided by the developer; (d) Removal or easing of approval standards or procedures; (e) Minimum density ranges; (f) Redevelopment and infill strategies; (g) Authorization of housing types not previously allowed by the plan or regulations; (h) Adoption of an average residential density standard; and (i) Rezoning or redesignation of nonresidential land. (10)(a) The provisions of this subsection apply to local government comprehensive plans for lands within the urban growth boundary of a city that is located outside of a metropolitan service district and has a population of less than 25,000. (b) [At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651 or at any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the application of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use,] As required under paragraph (c) of this subsection, a city shall, ac- cording to rules of the commission: (A) Determine the estimated housing needs within the jurisdiction for the next 20 years; (B) Inventory the supply of buildable lands available within the urban growth boundary to ac- commodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection; and (C) Adopt measures necessary to accommodate the estimated housing needs determined under this subsection. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 10 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 14 OF 56 (c) The actions required under paragraph (b) of this subsection shall be undertaken: (A) At periodic review pursuant to ORS 197.628 to 197.651; (B) On a schedule established by the commission for cities with a population greater than 10,000, not to exceed once each eight years; or (C) At any other legislative review of the comprehensive plan that requires the applica- tion of a statewide planning goal relating to buildable lands for residential use. [(c)] (d) For the purpose of the inventory described in this subsection, "buildable lands" includes those lands described in subsection (4)(a) of this section. SECTION 9. ORS 197.299 is amended to read: 197.299. (1) A metropolitan service district organized under ORS chapter 268 shall complete the inventory, determination and analysis required under ORS 197.296 (3) not later than six years after completion of the previous inventory, determination and analysis. (2)(a) The metropolitan service district shall take such action as necessary under ORS 197.296 (6)(a) to accommodate one-half of a 20-year buildable land supply determined under ORS 197.296 (3) within one year of completing the analysis. (b) The metropolitan service district shall take all final action under ORS 197.296 (6)(a) neces- sary to accommodate a 20-year buildable land supply determined under ORS 197.296 (3) within two years of completing the analysis. (c) The metropolitan service district shall take action under ORS 197.296 (6)(b), within one year after the analysis required under ORS 197.296 (3)(b) is completed, to provide sufficient buildable land within the urban growth boundary to accommodate the estimated housing needs for 20 years from the time the actions are completed. (d) The metropolitan service district shall consider and adopt new measures that the governing body deems appropriate under ORS 197.296 (6)(b) and shall allocate any housing capacity that is not accommodated under this section to be accommodated by the application of ORS 197.296 (6)(b) by cities within the metropolitan service district with a population greater than 10,000. (e) Cities to which housing capacity is allocated under paragraph (d) of this subsection shall take steps, at least once every six years as scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development Commission, to demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential develop- ment will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years as required by ORS 197.296 (6)(b). (3) The [Land Conservation and Development] commission may grant an extension to the time limits of subsection (2) of this section if the Director of the Department of Land Conservation and Development determines that the metropolitan service district has provided good cause for failing to meet the time limits. (4)(a) The metropolitan service district shall establish a process to expand the urban growth boundary to accommodate a need for land for a public school that cannot reasonably be accommo- dated within the existing urban growth boundary. The metropolitan service district shall design the process to: (A) Accommodate a need that must be accommodated between periodic analyses of urban growth boundary capacity required by subsection (1) of this section; and (B) Provide for a final decision on a proposal to expand the urban growth boundary within four months after submission of a complete application by a large school district as defined in ORS 195.110. (b) At the request of a large school district, the metropolitan service district shall assist the large school district to identify school sites required by the school facility planning process de- scribed in ORS 195.110. A need for a public school is a specific type of identified land need under ORS 197.298 (3). (5) Three years after completing its most recent demonstration of sufficient buildable lands un- der ORS 197.296, a metropolitan service district may, on a single occasion, revise the determination Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 11 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 15 OF 56 and analysis required as part of the demonstration for the purpose of considering an amendment to the metropolitan service district's urban growth boundary, provided: (a) The metropolitan service district has entered into an intergovernmental agreement and has designated rural reserves and urban reserves under ORS 195.141 and 195.145 with each county lo- cated within the district; (b) The commission has acknowledged the rural reserve and urban reserve designations de- scribed in paragraph (a) of this subsection; (c) One or more cities within the metropolitan service district have proposed a development that would require expansion of the urban growth boundary; (d) The city or cities proposing the development have provided evidence to the metropolitan service district that the proposed development would provide additional needed housing to the needed housing included in the most recent determination and analysis; (e) The location chosen for the proposed development is adjacent to the city proposing the de- velopment; and (f) The location chosen for the proposed development is located within an area designated and acknowledged as an urban reserve. (6)(a) If a metropolitan service district, after revising its most recent determination and analysis pursuant to subsection (5) of this section, concludes that an expansion of its urban growth boundary is warranted, the metropolitan service district may take action to expand its urban growth boundary in one or more locations to accommodate the proposed development, provided the urban growth boundary expansion does not exceed a total of 1,000 acres. (b) A metropolitan service district that expands its urban growth boundary under this sub- section: (A) Must adopt the urban growth boundary expansion not more than four years after completing its most recent demonstration of sufficient buildable lands under ORS 197.296; and (B) Is exempt from the boundary location requirements described in the statewide land use planning goals relating to urbanization. SECTION 10. ORS 197.303 is amended to read: 197.303. (1) As used in ORS [197.307] 197.295 to 197.314, "needed housing" means all housing on land zoned for residential use or mixed residential and commercial use that is determined to meet the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at price ranges and rent levels that are affordable to households within the county with a variety of incomes, including but not limited to households with low incomes, very low incomes and extremely low incomes, as those terms are defined by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development under 42 U.S.C. 1437a. Needed housing" includes the following housing types: (a) Attached and detached single-family housing and multiple family housing for both owner and renter occupancy; (b) Government assisted housing; (c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to 197.490; (d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family residential use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions; and (e) Housing for farmworkers. (2) Subsection (1)(a) and (d) of this section does not apply to: (a) A city with a population of less than 2,500. (b) A county with a population of less than 15,000. (3) A local government may take an exception under ORS 197.732 to the definition of "needed housing" in subsection (1) of this section in the same manner that an exception may be taken under the goals. SECTION 10a. If House Bill 2001 becomes law, section 10 of this 2019 Act (amending ORS 197.303) is repealed and ORS 197.303, as amended by section 6, chapter , Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled House Bill 2001), is amended to read: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 12 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 16 OF 56 197.303. (1) As used in ORS 197.295 to 197.314, "needed housing" means all housing on land zoned for residential use or mixed residential and commercial use that is determined to meet the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at price ranges and rent levels that are affordable to households within the county with a variety of incomes, including but not limited to households with low incomes, very low incomes and extremely low incomes, as those terms are de- fined by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development under 42 U.S.C. 1437a. "Needed housing" includes the following housing types: (a) Attached and detached single-family housing and multiple family housing for both owner and renter occupancy; (b) Government assisted housing; (c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475 to 197.490; (d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-family residential use that are in addition to lots within designated manufactured dwelling subdivisions; and (e) Housing for farmworkers. (2) For the purpose of estimating housing needs, as described in ORS 197.296 (3)(b), a local government shall use the population projections prescribed by ORS 195.033 or 195.036 and shall consider and adopt findings related to changes in each of the following factors since the last [peri- odic or legislative review or six years, whichever is greater,] review under ORS 197.296 (2)(a)(B) and the projected future changes in these factors over a 20-year planning period: (a) Household sizes; (b) Household demographics [in terms of age, gender, race or other established demographic cate- gory]; (c) Household incomes; (d) Vacancy rates; and (e) Housing costs. (3) A local government shall make the estimate described in subsection (2) of this section using a shorter time period than since the last [periodic or legislative review or six years, whichever is greater,] review under ORS 197.296 (2)(a)(B) if the local government finds that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing need. The shorter time period may not be less than three years. (4) A local government shall use data from a wider geographic area or use a time period longer than the time period described in subsection (2) of this section if the analysis of a wider geographic area or the use of a longer time period will provide more accurate, complete and reliable data re- lating to trends affecting housing need than an analysis performed pursuant to subsection (2) of this section. The local government must clearly describe the geographic area, time frame and source of data used in an estimate performed under this subsection. (5) Subsection (1)(a) and (d) of this section does not apply to: (a) A city with a population of less than 2,500. (b) A county with a population of less than 15,000. (6) A local government may take an exception under ORS 197.732 to the definition of "needed housing" in subsection (1) of this section in the same manner that an exception may be taken under the goals. SECTION 11. ORS 197.319 is amended to read: 197.319. (1) Before a person may request adoption of an enforcement order under ORS 197.320, the person shall: (a) Present the reasons, in writing, for such an order to the affected local government; and (b) Request: (A) Revisions to the local comprehensive plan, land use regulations, special district cooperative or urban service agreement or decision-making process which is the basis for the order; or (B) That an action be taken regarding the local comprehensive plan, Land use regulations, spe- cial district agreement, housing production strategy or decision-making process that is the basis for the order. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 13 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 17 OF 56 (2)(a) The local government or special district shall issue a written response to the request within 60 days of the date the request is mailed to the local government or special district. (b) The requestor and the local government or special district may enter into mediation to re- solve issues in the request. The Department of Land Conservation and Development shall provide mediation services when jointly requested by the local government or special district and the requestor. (c) If the local government or special district does not act in a manner which the requestor believes is adequate to address the issues raised in the request within the time period provided in paragraph (a) of this subsection, a petition may be presented to the Land Conservation and Devel- opment Commission under ORS 197.324. (3) A metropolitan service district may request an enforcement order under ORS 197.320 (12) without first complying with subsections (1) and (2) of this section. SECTION 12. ORS 197.320 is amended to read: 197.320. The Land Conservation and Development Commission shall issue an order requiring a local government, state agency or special district to take action necessary to bring its comprehen- sive plan, land use regulation, limited land use decisions or other land use decisions or actions into compliance with the goals, acknowledged comprehensive plan provisions, [or] land use regulations or housing production strategy if the commission has good cause to believe: (1) A comprehensive plan or land use regulation adopted by a local government not on a com- pliance schedule is not in compliance with the goals by the date set in ORS 197.245 or 197.250 for such compliance; (2) A plan, program, rule or regulation affecting land use adopted by a state agency or special district is not in compliance with the goals by the date set in ORS 197.245 or 197.250 for such compliance; (3) A local government is not making satisfactory progress toward performance of its compliance schedule; (4) A state agency is not making satisfactory progress in carrying out its coordination agree- ment or the requirements of ORS 197.180; (5) A local government has no comprehensive plan or land use regulation and is not on a com- pliance schedule directed to developing the plan or regulation; (6) A local government has engaged in a pattern or practice of decision making that violates an acknowledged comprehensive plan or land use regulation. In making its determination under this subsection, the commission shall determine whether there is evidence in the record to support the decisions made. The commission shall not judge the issue solely upon adequacy of the findings in support of the decisions; (7) A local government has failed to comply with a commission order entered under ORS 197.644; (8) A special district has engaged in a pattern or practice of decision-making that violates an acknowledged comprehensive plan or cooperative agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 197.020; (9) A special district is not making satisfactory progress toward performance of its obligations under ORS chapters 195 and 197; (10) A local government's approval standards, special conditions on approval of specific devel- opment proposals or procedures for approval do not comply with ORS 197.307 (4) or (6); (11) A local government is not making satisfactory progress toward meeting its obligations un- der ORS 195.065; [or] (12) A local government within the jurisdiction of a metropolitan service district has failed to make changes to the comprehensive plan or land use regulations to comply with the regional framework plan of the district or has engaged in a pattern or practice of decision-making that vio- lates a requirement of the regional framework plan[.]; or (13) A city is not making satisfactory progress in taking actions listed in its housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 13. Section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, is amended to read: Sec. 1. (1) For purposes of this section: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 14 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 18 OF 56 (a) A household is severely rent burdened if the household spends more than 50 percent of the income of the household on gross rent for housing. (b) A regulated affordable unit is a residential unit subject to a regulatory agreement that runs with the land and that requires affordability for an established income level for a defined period of time. (c) A single-family unit may be rented or owned by a household and includes single-family homes, duplexes, townhomes, row homes and mobile homes. (2)(a) The Housing and Community Services Department shall annually provide to the governing body of each city in this state with a population greater than 10,000 the most current data available from the United States Census Bureau, or any other source the department considers at least as reliable, showing the percentage of renter households in the city that are severely rent burdened. (b) [The Housing and Community Services Department, in collaboration with] The Department of Land Conservation and Development, in consultation with the Housing and Community Services Department, shall develop a survey form on which the governing body of a city may provide spe- cific information related to the affordability of housing within the city, including[, but not limited to:] [(All the actions relating to land use and other related matters that the [governing body] city has taken to encourage the development of needed housing, increase the affordability of housing and reduce rent burdens for severely rent burdened households[; and]. [(B) The additional actions the governing body intends to take to reduce rent burdens for severely rent burdened households.] (c) [If the Housing and Community Services Department determines that at least 25 percent of the renter households in a city are severely rent burdened,] The Department of Land Conservation and Development shall provide the governing body of the city with the survey form developed pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. (d) The governing body of the city shall return the completed survey form to the [Housing and Community Services Department and the] Department of Land Conservation and Development [within 60 days of receipt] at least 24 months prior to a deadline for completing a housing production strategy under section 4 of this 2019 Act. (3)(a) In any year in which the governing body of a city is informed under this section that at least 25 percent of the renter households in the city are severely rent burdened, the governing body shall hold at least one public meeting to discuss the causes and consequences of severe rent burdens within the city, the barriers to reducing rent burdens and possible solutions. (b) The Housing and Community Services Department may adopt rules governing the conduct of the public meeting required under this subsection. (4) No later than February 1 of each year, the governing body of each city in this state with a population greater than 10,000 shall submit to the Department of Land Conservation and Develop- ment a report for the immediately preceding calendar year setting forth separately for each of the following categories the total number of units that were permitted and the total number that were produced: (a) Residential units. (b) Regulated affordable residential units. (c) Multifamily residential units. (d) Regulated affordable multifamily residential units. (e) Single-family units. (f) Regulated affordable single-family units. SECTION 14. Section 15 of this 2019 Act is added to and made a part of ORS chapter 197. SECTION 15. (1) As used in this section, "public property" means all real property of the state, counties, cities, incorporated towns or villages, school districts, irrigation districts, drainage districts, ports, water districts, service districts, metropolitan service districts, housing authorities, public universities listed in ORS 352.002 or all other public or municipal corporations in this state. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 15 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 19 OF 56 (2) Notwithstanding any land use regulation, comprehensive plan, or statewide land use planning goal, a local government may allow the development of housing on public property provided: (a) The real property is not inventoried as a park or open space as a protective measure pursuant to a statewide land use planning goal; (b) The real property is located within the urban growth boundary; (c) The real property is zoned for residential development or adjacent to parcels zoned for residential development; (d) The housing complies with applicable land use regulations and meets the standards and criteria for residential development for the underlying zone of the land or the adjacent residential land described in paragraph (c) of this subsection; (e) At least 50 percent of the residential units provided under this section is affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the area median income, as defined in ORS 456.270; and (f) The affordability of the residential units described in paragraph (e) of this subsection is subject to an affordable housing covenant, as described in ORS 456.270 to 456.295, held by the local government or the Housing and Community Services Department and with a dura- tion of no less than 60 years. (3) Notwithstanding any statewide land use planning goal, a local government may amend its comprehensive plan and land use regulations to allow public property to be used for the purposes described in subsection (2) of this section. SECTION 16. Notwithstanding ORS 197.646, a local government required to comply with the amendments to ORS 197.312 by section 6, chapter 745,Oregon Laws 2017, shall adopt land use regulations, or adopt amendments to its comprehensive plan, to comply with the amendments to ORS 197.312 by section 6, chapter 745, Oregon Laws 2017, no later than the effective date of this 2019 Act. SECTION 17. ORS 215.416 is amended to read: 215,416. (1) When required or authorized by the ordinances, rules and regulations of a county, an owner of land may apply in writing to such persons as the governing body designates, for a permit, in the manner prescribed by the governing body. The governing body shall establish fees charged for processing permits at an amount no more than the actual or average cost of providing that service. (2) The governing body shall establish a consolidated procedure by which an applicant may ap- ply at one time for all permits or zone changes needed for a development project. The consolidated procedure shall be subject to the time limitations set out in ORS 215.427. The consolidated proce- dure shall be available for use at the option of the applicant no later than the time of the first pe- riodic review of the comprehensive plan and land use regulations. (3) Except as provided in subsection (11) of this section, the hearings officer shall hold at least one public hearing on the application. (4)(a) A county may not approve an application if the proposed use of land is found to be in conflict with the comprehensive plan of the county and other applicable land use regulation or or- dinance provisions. The approval may include such conditions as are authorized by statute or county legislation. (b)(A) A county may not deny an application for a housing development located within the urban growth boundary if the development complies with clear and objective standards, including but not limited to clear and objective design standards contained in the county comprehensive plan or land use regulations. (B) This paragraph does not apply to: (i) Applications or permits for residential development in areas described in ORS 197.307 (5); or (ii) Applications or permits reviewed under an alternative approval process adopted under ORS 197.307 (6). Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 16 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 20 OF 56 (c) A county may not [reduce the density of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density if: (A) The density applied for is at or below the authorized density level under the local land use regulations; and (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing. (d) A county may not [reduce the height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in height if: (A) The height applied for is at or below the authorized height level under the local land use regulations; (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing; and (C) Reducing the height has the effect of reducing the authorized density level under local land use regulations. (e) Notwithstanding paragraphs (c) and (d) of this subsection, a county may [reduce the density or height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density or height only if the reduction is necessary to resolve a health, safety or habitability issue or to comply with a protective measure adopted pursuant to a statewide land use planning goal. Notwithstanding ORS 197.350, the county must adopt findings supported by substantial evi- dence demonstrating the necessity of the reduction. (f) As used in this subsection: (A) "Authorized density level" means the maximum number of lots or dwelling units or the maximum floor area ratio that is permitted under local land use regulations. (B) "Authorized height level" means the maximum height of a structure that is permitted under local land use regulations. (C) "Habitability" means being in compliance with the applicable provisions of the state building code under ORS chapter 455 and the rules adopted thereunder. (5) Hearings under this section shall be held only after notice to the applicant and also notice to other persons as otherwise provided by law and shall otherwise be conducted in conformance with the provisions of ORS 197.763. (6) Notice of a public hearing on an application submitted under this section shall be provided to the owner of an airport defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation as a "public use airport" if: (a) The name and address of the airport owner has been provided by the Oregon Department of Aviation to the county planning authority; and (b) The property subject to the land use hearing is: (A) Within 5,000 feet of the side or end of a runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be a "visual airport"; or (B) Within 10,000 feet of the side or end of the runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be an "instrument airport." (7) Notwithstanding the provisions of subsection (6) of this section, notice of a land use hearing need not be provided as set forth in subsection (6) of this section if the zoning permit would only allow a structure less than 35 feet in height and the property is located outside the runway "ap- proach surface" as defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation. (8)(a) Approval or denial of a permit application shall be based on standards and criteria which shall be set forth in the zoning ordinance or other appropriate ordinance or regulation of the county and which shall relate approval or denial of a permit application to the zoning ordinance and com- prehensive plan for the area in which the proposed use of land would occur and to the zoning or- dinance and comprehensive plan for the county as a whole. (b) When an ordinance establishing approval standards is required under ORS 197.307 to provide only clear and objective standards, the standards must be clear and objective on the face of the ordinance. (9) Approval or denial of a permit or expedited land division shall be based upon and accompa- nied by a brief statement that explains the criteria and standards considered relevant to the deci- Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 17 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 21 OF 56 Sion, states the facts relied upon in rendering the decision and explains the justification for the decision based on the criteria, standards and facts set forth. (10) Written notice of the approval or denial shall be given to all parties to the proceeding. (11)(a)(A) The hearings officer or such other person as the governing body designates may ap- prove or deny an application for a permit without a hearing if the hearings officer or other desig- nated person gives notice of the decision and provides an opportunity for any person who is adversely affected or aggrieved, or who is entitled to notice under paragraph (c) of this subsection, to file an appeal. (B) Written notice of the decision shall be mailed to those persons described in paragraph (c) of this subsection. (C) Notice under this subsection shall comply with ORS 197.763 (3)(a), (c), (g) and (h) and shall describe the nature of the decision. In addition, the notice shall state that any person who is ad- versely affected or aggrieved or who is entitled to written notice under paragraph (c) of this sub- section may appeal the decision by filing a written appeal in the manner and within the time period provided in the county's land use regulations. A county may not establish an appeal period that is less than 12 days from the date the written notice of decision required by this subsection was mailed. The notice shall state that the decision will not become final until the period for filing a local appeal has expired. The notice also shall state that a person who is mailed written notice of the decision cannot appeal the decision directly to the Land Use Board of Appeals under ORS 197.830. (D) An appeal from a hearings officer's decision made without hearing under this subsection shall be to the planning commission or governing body of the county. An appeal from such other person as the governing body designates shall be to a hearings officer, the planning commission or the governing body. In either case, the appeal shall be to a de novo hearing. (E) The de novo hearing required by subparagraph (D) of this paragraph shall be the initial evidentiary hearing required under ORS 197.763 as the basis for an appeal to the Land Use Board of Appeals. At the de novo hearing: (i) The applicant and other parties shall have the same opportunity to present testimony, argu- ments and evidence as they would have had in a hearing under subsection (3) of this section before the decision; (ii) The presentation of testimony, arguments and evidence shall not be limited to issues raised in a notice of appeal; and (iii) The decision maker shall consider all relevant testimony, arguments and evidence that are accepted at the hearing. (b) If a local government provides only a notice of the opportunity to request a hearing, the local government may charge a fee for the initial hearing. The maximum fee for an initial hearing shall be the cost to the local government of preparing for and conducting the appeal, or $250, whichever is less. If an appellant prevails at the hearing or upon subsequent appeal, the fee for the initial hearing shall be refunded. The fee allowed in this paragraph shall not apply to appeals made by neighborhood or community organizations recognized by the governing body and whose bounda- ries include the site. (c)(A) Notice of a decision under paragraph (a) of this subsection shall be provided to the ap- plicant and to the owners of record of property on the most recent property tax assessment roll where such property is located: (i) Within 100 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is wholly or in part within an urban growth boundary; (ii) Within 250 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is outside an urban growth boundary and not within a farm or forest zone; or (iii) Within 750 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is within a farm or forest zone. (B) Notice shall also be provided to any neighborhood or community organization recognized by the governing body and whose boundaries include the site. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 22 OF 56 (C) At the discretion of the applicant, the local government also shall provide notice to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. (12) A decision described in ORS 215.402 (4)(b) shall: (a) Be entered in a registry available to the public setting forth: (A) The street address or other easily understood geographic reference to the subject property; (B) The date of the decision; and (C) A description of the decision made. (b) Be subject to the jurisdiction of the Land Use Board of Appeals in the same manner as a limited land use decision. (c) Be subject to the appeal period described in ORS 197.830 (5)(b). (13) At the option of the applicant, the local government shall provide notice of the decision described in ORS 215.402 (4)(b) in the manner required by ORS 197.763 (2), in which case an appeal to the board shall be filed within 21 days of the decision. The notice shall include an explanation of appeal rights. (14) Notwithstanding the requirements of this section, a limited land use decision shall be sub- ject to the requirements set forth in ORS 197.195 and 197.828. SECTION 18. ORS 227.175 is amended to read: 227.175. (1) When required or authorized by a city, an owner of land may apply in writing to the hearings officer, or such other person as the city council designates, for a permit or zone change, upon such forms and in such a manner as the city council prescribes. The governing body shall es- tablish fees charged for processing permits at an amount no more than the actual or average cost of providing that service. (2) The governing body of the city shall establish a consolidated procedure by which an appli- cant may apply at one time for all permits or zone changes needed for a development project. The consolidated procedure shall be subject to the time limitations set out in ORS 227.178. The consol- idated procedure shall be available for use at the option of the applicant no later than the time of the first periodic review of the comprehensive plan and land use regulations. (3) Except as provided in subsection (10) of this section, the hearings officer shall hold at least one public hearing on the application. (4)(a) A city may not approve an application unless the proposed development of land would be in compliance with the comprehensive plan for the city and other applicable land use regulation or ordinance provisions. The approval may include such conditions as are authorized by ORS 227.215 or any city legislation. (b)(A) A city may not deny an application for a housing development located within the urban growth boundary if the development complies with clear and objective standards, including [but not limited to] clear and objective design standards contained in the city comprehensive plan or land use regulations. (B) This paragraph does not apply to: (i) Applications or permits for residential development in areas described in ORS 197.307 (5); or (ii) Applications or permits reviewed under an alternative approval process adopted under ORS 197.307 (6). (c) A city may not [reduce the density of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density if: (A) The density applied for is at or below the authorized density level under the local land use regulations; and (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing. (d) A city may not [reduce the height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in height if: (A) The height applied for is at or below the authorized height level under the local land use regulations; (B) At least 75 percent of the floor area applied for is reserved for housing; and Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 19 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 23 OF 56 (C) Reducing the height has the effect of reducing the authorized density level under local land use regulations. (e) Notwithstanding paragraphs (c) and (d) of this subsection, a city may [reduce the density or height of] condition an application for a housing development on a reduction in density or height only if the reduction is necessary to resolve a health, safety or habitability issue or to comply with a protective measure adopted pursuant to a statewide land use planning goal. Notwithstanding ORS 197.350, the city must adopt findings supported by substantial evidence demonstrating the necessity of the reduction. (f) As used in this subsection: (A) "Authorized density level" means the maximum number of lots or dwelling units or the maximum floor area ratio that is permitted under local land use regulations. (B) "Authorized height level" means the maximum height of a structure that is permitted under local land use regulations. (C) "Habitability" means being in compliance with the applicable provisions of the state building code under ORS chapter 455 and the rules adopted thereunder. (5) Hearings under this section may be held only after notice to the applicant and other inter- ested persons and shall otherwise be conducted in conformance with the provisions of ORS 197.763. (6) Notice of a public hearing on a zone use application shall be provided to the owner of an airport, defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation as a "public use airport" if: (a) The name and address of the airport owner has been provided by the Oregon Department of Aviation to the city planning authority; and (b) The property subject to the zone use hearing is: (A) Within 5,000 feet of the side or end of a runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be a "visual airport"; or (B) Within 10,000 feet of the side or end of the runway of an airport determined by the Oregon Department of Aviation to be an "instrument airport." (7) Notwithstanding the provisions of subsection (6) of this section, notice of a zone use hearing need only be provided as set forth in subsection (6) of this section if the permit or zone change would only allow a structure less than 35 feet in height and the property is located outside of the runway "approach surface" as defined by the Oregon Department of Aviation. (8) If an application would change the zone of property that includes all or part of a mobile home or manufactured dwelling park as defined in ORS 446.003, the governing body shall give written notice by first class mail to each existing mailing address for tenants of the mobile home or manufactured dwelling park at least 20 days but not more than 40 days before the date of the first hearing on the application. The governing body may require an applicant for such a zone change to pay the costs of such notice. (9) The failure of a tenant or an airport owner to receive a notice which was mailed shall not invalidate any zone change. (10)(a)(A) The hearings officer or such other person as the governing body designates may ap- prove or deny an application for a permit without a hearing if the hearings officer or other desig- nated person gives notice of the decision and provides an opportunity for any person who is adversely affected or aggrieved, or who is entitled to notice under paragraph (c) of this subsection, to file an appeal. (B) Written notice of the decision shall be mailed to those persons described in paragraph (c) of this subsection. (C) Notice under this subsection shall comply with ORS 197.763 (3)(a), (c), (g) and (h) and shall describe the nature of the decision. In addition, the notice shall state that any person who is ad- versely affected or aggrieved or who is entitled to written notice under paragraph (c) of this sub- section may appeal the decision by filing a written appeal in the manner and within the time period provided in the city's land use regulations. A city may not establish an appeal period that is less than 12 days from the date the written notice of decision required by this subsection was mailed. The notice shall state that the decision will not become final until the period for filing a local ap- Enrolled House Bill 2003 (BB 2003-C) Page 20 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 24 OF 56 peal has expired. The notice also shall state that a person who is mailed written notice of the de- cision cannot appeal the decision directly to the Land Use Board of Appeals under ORS 197.830. (D) An appeal from a hearings officer's decision made without hearing under this subsection shall be to the planning commission or governing body of the city. An appeal from such other person as the governing body designates shall be to a hearings officer, the planning commission or the governing body. In either case, the appeal shall be to a de novo hearing. (E) The de novo hearing required by subparagraph (D) of this paragraph shall be the initial evidentiary hearing required under ORS 197.763 as the basis for an appeal to the Land Use Board of Appeals. At the de novo hearing: (i) The applicant and other parties shall have the same opportunity to present testimony, argu- ments and evidence as they would have had in a hearing under subsection (3) of this section before the decision; (ii) The presentation of testimony, arguments and evidence shall not be limited to issues raised in a notice of appeal; and (iii) The decision maker shall consider all relevant testimony, arguments and evidence that are accepted at the hearing. (b) If a local government provides only a notice of the opportunity to request a hearing, the local government may charge a fee for the initial hearing. The maximum fee for an initial hearing shall be the cost to the local government of preparing for and conducting the appeal, or $250, whichever is less. If an appellant prevails at the hearing or upon subsequent appeal, the fee for the initial hearing shall be refunded. The fee allowed in this paragraph shall not apply to appeals made by neighborhood or community organizations recognized by the governing body and whose bounda- ries include the site. (c)(A) Notice of a decision under paragraph (a) of this subsection shall be provided to the ap- plicant and to the owners of record of property on the most recent property tax assessment roll where such property is located: (i) Within 100 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is wholly or in part within an urban growth boundary; (ii) Within 250 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is outside an urban growth boundary and not within a farm or forest zone; or (iii) Within 750 feet of the property that is the subject of the notice when the subject property is within a farm or forest zone. (B) Notice shall also be provided to any neighborhood or community organization recognized by the governing body and whose boundaries include the site. (C) At the discretion of the applicant, the local government also shall provide notice to the Department of Land Conservation and Development. (11) A decision described in ORS 227.160 (2)(b) shall: (a) Be entered in a registry available to the public setting forth: (A) The street address or other easily understood geographic reference to the subject property; (B) The date of the decision; and (C) A description of the decision made. (b) Be subject to the jurisdiction of the Land Use Board of Appeals in the same manner as a limited land use decision. (c) Be subject to the appeal period described in ORS 197.830 (5)(b). (12) At the option of the applicant, the local government shall provide notice of the decision described in ORS 227.160 (2)(b) in the manner required by ORS 197.763 (2), in which case an appeal to the board shall be filed within 21 days of the decision. The notice shall include an explanation of appeal rights. (13) Notwithstanding other requirements of this section, limited land use decisions shall be subject to the requirements set forth in ORS 197.195 and 197.828. SECTION 19. ORS 215.441 is amended to read: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 21 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 25 OF 56 215.441. (1) If a church, synagogue, temple, mosque, chapel, meeting house or other nonresiden- tial place of worship is allowed on real property under state law and rules and local zoning ordi- nances and regulations, a county shall allow the reasonable use of the real property for activities customarily associated with the practices of the religious activity, including: (a) Worship services. (b) Religion classes. (c) Weddings. (d) Funerals. (e) Meal programs. (f) Child care, but not including private or parochial school education for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education. (g) Providing housing or space for housing in a building or buildings that [is] are detached from the place of worship, provided: (A) At least 50 percent of the residential units provided under this paragraph are affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located; (B) The real property is in an area zoned for residential use that is located within the urban growth boundary; and (C) The housing or space for housing complies with applicable land use regulations and meets the standards and criteria for residential development for the underlying zone. (2) A county may: (a) Subject real property described in subsection (1) of this section to reasonable regulations, including site review or design review, concerning the physical characteristics of the uses author- ized under subsection (1) of this section; or (b) Prohibit or restrict the use of real property by a place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section if the county finds that the level of service of public facilities, including trans- portation, water supply, sewer and storm drain systems is not adequate to serve the place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section. (3) Notwithstanding any other provision of this section, a county may allow a private or paro- chial school for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education to be sited under applicable state law and rules and local zoning ordinances and regulations. (4) Housing and space for housing provided under subsection (1)(g) of this section must be sub- ject to a covenant appurtenant that restricts the owner and each successive owner of [the] a build- ing or any residential unit contained in [the] a building from selling or renting any residential unit described in subsection (1)(g)(A) of this section as housing that is not affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located for a period of 60 years from the date of the certificate of occupancy. SECTION 20. ORS 227.500 is amended to read: 227.500. (1) If a church, synagogue, temple, mosque, chapel, meeting house or other nonresiden- tial place of worship is allowed on real property under state law and rules and local zoning ordi- nances and regulations, a city shall allow the reasonable use of the real property for activities customarily associated with the practices of the religious activity, including: (a) Worship services. (b) Religion classes. (c) Weddings. (d) Funerals. (e) Meal programs. (f) Child care, but not including private or parochial school education for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education. (g) Providing housing or space for housing in a building or buildings that [is] are detached from the place of worship, provided: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 22 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 26 OF 56 (A) At least 50 percent of the residential units provided under this paragraph are affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located; (B) The real property is in an area zoned for residential use that is located within the urban growth boundary; and (C) The housing or space for housing complies with applicable land use regulations and meets the standards and criteria for residential development for the underlying zone. (2) A city may: (a) Subject real property described in subsection (1) of this section to reasonable regulations, including site review and design review, concerning the physical characteristics of the uses au- thorized under subsection (1) of this section; or (b) Prohibit or regulate the use of real property by a place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section if the city finds that the level of service of public facilities, including transporta- tion, water supply, sewer and storm drain systems is not adequate to serve the place of worship described in subsection (1) of this section. (3) Notwithstanding any other provision of this section, a city may allow a private or parochial school for prekindergarten through grade 12 or higher education to be sited under applicable state law and rules and local zoning ordinances and regulations. (4) Housing and space for housing provided under subsection (1)(g) of this section must be sub- ject to a covenant appurtenant that restricts the owner and each successive owner of [the] a build- ing or any residential unit contained in [the] a building from selling or renting any residential unit described in subsection (1)(g)(A) of this section as housing that is not affordable to households with incomes equal to or less than 60 percent of the median family income for the county in which the real property is located for a period of 60 years from the date of the certificate of occupancy. SECTION 21. ORS 455.062 is amended to read: 455.062. (1) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee acting within the scope of that employment may provide typical plans and specifications: (a) For structures of a type for which the provision of plans or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the application of ORS 672.002 to 672.325; and (b) Notwithstanding ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and 672.002 to 672.325, for structures that are metal or wood frame Use and Occupancy Classification Group U structures under the structural specialty code. (2) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee, who is licensed or reg- istered under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325, who is acting within the scope of that employment and who is providing typical plans and specifications under subsection (1) of this section, is not required to seal or sign the typical plans and specifications and is not subject to disciplinary action under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 based on providing those typical plans and specifications. [(2}] (3) A building official or inspector, as those terms are defined in ORS 455.715, when acting within the scope of direct employment by a municipality, may provide typical plans and specifica- tions for structures of a type for which the provision of plans or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the application of ORS 672.002 to 672.325. [(3)] This [section] subsection does not alter any applicable requirement under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 regarding stamps and seals for a set of plans for a structure. SECTION 21a. If Senate Bill 39 becomes law, ORS 455.062, as amended by section 2, chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39), and section 21 of this 2019 Act, is amended to read: 455.062. (1) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee acting within the scope of that employment may provide typical drawings and specifications: Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 23 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 27 OF 56 (a) For structures of a type for which the provision of drawings or specifications is exempted un •ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the registration requirements of ORS 672.002 to 672.325; and •fib) Notwithstanding ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and 672.002 to 672.325, for structures that are metal or wood.frame Use and Occupancy Classification Group U structures under the structural specialty code. (2) A Department of Consumer and Business Services employee, who is licensed or registered under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325, who is acting within the scope of that employ- ment and who is providing typical [plans] drawings and specifications under subsection (1) of this section, is not required to seal or sign the typical [plans] drawings and specifications and is not subject to disciplinary action under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 based on providing those typical [plans] drawings and specifications. (3) A building official or inspector, as those terms are defined in ORS 455.715, when acting within the scope of direct employment by a municipality, may provide typical drawings or specifi- cations for structures of a type for which the provision of drawings or specifications is exempted under ORS 671.030 from the application of ORS 671.010 to 671.220 and exempted under ORS 672.060 from the registration requirements of ORS 672.002 to 672.325. This subsection does not alter any applicable requirement under ORS 671.010 to 671.220 or 672.002 to 672.325 regarding stamps and seals for a set of plans for a structure. SECTION 21b. If Senate Bill 39 becomes law, section 3, chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39), is amended to read: Sec. 3. The amendments to ORS 455.062 and 672.060 by sections 1 and 2 [of this 2019 Act], chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39), and section 21a of this 2019 Act apply to work performed, and offers made, on or after the effective date of [this 2019 Act] chapter 97, Oregon Laws 2019 (Enrolled Senate Bill 39). SECTION 22. In addition to and not in lieu of any other appropriation, there is appro- priated to the Department of Land Conservation and Development, for the biennium begin- ning July 1, 2019, out of the General Fund, the amount of $1,000,000, to provide technical assistance to local governments to implement sections 4 to 6 and 15 of this 2019 Act and the amendments to ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319, 197.320, 215.416, 215.441, 227.175 and 227.500 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, by sections 8 to 13 and 17 to 20 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 23. In addition to and not in lieu of any other appropriation, there is appro- priated to the Housing and Community Services Department, for the biennium beginning July 1, 2019, out of the General Fund, the amount of $655,274, for research, administration and reporting that relate to a regional housing needs analysis described in section 1 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 24. (1) Sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act and the amendments to ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319 and 197.320 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, by sections 8 to 13 of this 2019 Act become operative on January 1, 2020. (2) The Land Conservation and Development Commission, the Department of Land Con- servation and Development and the Housing and Community Services Department may take any action before the operative date specified in subsection (1) of this section that is neces- sary for the departments and the commission to exercise, on or after the operative date specified in subsection (1) of this section, all of the duties, functions and powers conferred on the departments and the commission by sections 4 to 6 of this 2019 Act and the amend- ments to ORS 197.296, 197.299, 197.303, 197.319, 197.320 and section 1, chapter 47, Oregon Laws 2018, by sections 8 to 13 of this 2019 Act. SECTION 25. This 2019 Act being necessary for the immediate preservation of the public peace, health and safety, an emergency is declared to exist, and this 2019 Act takes effect on its passage. Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 24 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 28 OF 56 Passed by House June 26, 2019 Received by Governor: M., ,2019 Timothy G. Sekerak, Chief Clerk of House Approved: M., ,2019 Tina Kotek, Speaker of House Passed by Senate June 30,2019 Kate Brown, Governor Filed in Office of Secretary of State: M., ,2019 Peter Courtney, President of Senate Bev Clarno, Secretary of State Enrolled House Bill 2003 (HB 2003-C) Page 25 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 29 OF 56 Housing Production Strategy Task Force Ad Hoc Task Force Overview Draft December 7, 2022 .) BACKGROUND In 2019, the Oregon Legislature adopted House Bill 2003 (HB 2003), which requires cities to plan for housing. Specifically, the bill requires that Lake Oswego adopt an updated Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) by December 31", 2023, and a Housing Production Strategy (HPS) within one year of the updated HNA's adoption. (The current HNA was adopted in 2014 as part of the Comprehensive Plan Update adopted at that time.) This work is consistent with the 2022 City Council initiative to, "Complete work on key housing initiatives, including HB 2001 code adoption, HB 2003 compliance, decision-making on a possible project on the Boones Ferry Road Staging area, and support for other non-profit led housing projects," On June 8, 2022, the City Council directed staff to issue a request for proposals (RFP) to solicit consultant services to assist with this work, and committed to appoint an Ad-Hoc Task Force to provide high-level policy guidance to the Planning Commission and City Council as the City identifies critical housing needs and recommends strategies to address them, per the requirements of HB 2003. The City has since contracted with a consultant team led by MIG to conduct this work, and, on ❑ctober 4, 2022, the City Council appointed an ad-hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force ( 'Task Force") to provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission as the City proceeds with l-lB 2003 compliance. House Bill 2003 HB 2003 was adopted during the same legislative session (2019) as House Bill 2001 (HB 2001), in order to help local jurisdictions meet the housing needs of residents throughout the state. The bill requires ❑regon cities with over 10,000 residents to analyze the future housing needs of their community through an HNA and to develop strategies that promote the development of such needed housing through an HPS. In November 2020, the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) adopted implementing rules for HB 2003, which are contained in OAR 660-008-0045 through -0070. These rules established criteria for compliance, including the components that are required to be included within an HPS Report. Housing Needs Analysis The HNA, incorporated into a city's comprehensive plan by ordinance, assesses housing need and capacity over a 20-year planning horizon. An HNA must include the inventory, determination, and Housing Production Strategy Task Force Overview &Work Plan Page 1 of 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 30 OF 56 analysis required under ORS 197.296 (Factors to establish sufficiency of buildable lands within an urban growth boundary) (3): (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2)of this section, a local government shall: (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands;and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 ("Needed housing"defined) and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years, The City last updated its HNA._in 2013 as part of the Comprehensive Plan update the City adopted in 2014. The document is an appendix to the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing chapter of the Plan. The 2013 HNA found that the Lake Oswego Urban Services Boundary had an adequate amount of vacant, part-vacant, and redevelopable land area at that time t❑ meet the then projected housing needs through the year 2035. The 2013 HNA also found there was sufficient vacant and redevelopable land to meet the projected need for detached single-family housing, and that the City could meet the projected need for attached housing primarily through redevelopment in existing medium- and high-density residential zones and mixed-use zones. The HNA recommended new strategies such as incentives or requirements for new development in the town centers to include a minimum number of housing units. The HNA also recommended strategies to help ensure a range of housing prices is maintained over time, particularly for residents earning less than 80 percent of the area median income (AMI). The City has since implemented the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing policies, and ❑ther HNA's strategies, including creating incentives for the development of affordable housing for residents earning less than 80%of AMI. Additionally, the recent adoption of code amendments to comply with House Bill 2001 (HB 2001) expanded the range of housing types that can be accommodated throughout the City by allowing middle housing— including duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes, townhouses, and cottage clusters - in all residential zones. However, following national and regional trends, housing prices in Lake Oswego have continued to escalate faster than median household incomes. Considering these trends, it will be necessary for the City to continue to assess its progress in meeting an increased need for housing in order to determine the best approach moving forward — particularly as compared to the needs projected in 2013. Under the requirements of HB 2003, cities with over 10,❑00 residents within the Portland Metr❑ Boundary are now required to update their HNA every six years. Though it has been more than six years since the City adopted its HNA, DLC❑ has released an HNA Adoption Schedule requiring that Lake Oswego adopt an updated HNA by December 31st, 2023. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Overview &Work Plan Page 2 of 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 31 OF 56 Housing Production Strategy HB 2003 also requires that cities adopt an HPS within one year of the date of HNA adoption. The HPS must identify a set of specific tools, actions, and policies that the City will utilize in order to address the housing needs identified in the HNA, as well as a timeline for adopting and implementing each strategy. As outlined in OAR 660-008-0050,there are five major components of an HPS; I. Contextualized Housing Need— Identify the relevant social and demographic trends, existing adopted measures, market conditions, barriers to housing, and housing needs of underrepresented populations; 2. Engagement—Conduct meaningful engagement with both consumers and producers of needed housing; 3. Strategies to Meet Future Housing Need—Outline the strategies proposed to meet housing need, including a timeline for adoption, a timeline for implementation, and the anticipated depth and breadth of the impact of the strategies; 4. Achieving Fair andEquitable Housing Outcomes— Describe how the proposed strategies will achieve equitable outcomes with respect to location/transportation, fair housing, housing choice, homelessness, opportunities for affordable housing, and gentrification/ displacement; and 5. Conclusion—Address any opportunities or constraints associated with adoption of the elements of proposed strategies, provide a detailed list of actions to implement the strategies, and describe which metrics will be used to measure progress. The HPS review process will be managed by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD), who will review and approve an HPS based on the accuracy and sufficiency of the strategies being proposed, considering the factors as outlined in OAR 660-008-0055: • Unmet housing need; • The proportion of households identified as severely rent-burdened; • Recent housing development; • Recent adoption of an HPS or implementation of actions therein; • City response to addressing needs of those experiencing homelessness; • Increased access to housing opportunity; • Elimination of barriers to fair and equitable housing options; and • Other relevant attributes that the Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission deems to be relevant. Cities are also required to provide updates to DLCD at "mid-term checkpoints" every three years in order to evaluate the progress and effectiveness of their HPS. This process will ask cities to reflect upon which strategies were successful, which were not successful, and to identify ways for cities to modify their strategies to ensure housing needs are adequately being addressed. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Overview &Work Plan Page 3 of 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 32 OF 56 HB 2003 does not provide a prescriptive set of strategies that cities must adopt. However, to help cities as they produce HPS Reports for compliance with HB 2003, DLCD compiled a list of potential housing production strategies that jurisdictions can select from in order to promote housing production within their community. The HPS Program List of Tools, Actions and Policies includes options that are broken out into distinct categories for easy reference, ranging from zoning and code changes to financial incentives, financial resources, reducing regulatory impediments, tax exemption and abatement, and securing land for needed housing. The HPS Task Force is tasked with recommending options that best meet Lake Oswego's housing needs, taking into consideration existing policies, programs, and resources. Policy Direction The City has taken several actions toward expanding housing options since adoption of the 2013 Housing Needs Analysis, including: • Adoption of Clear and Objective Housing Standards; • Streamlined development standards and permit process for accessory dwelling units (ADUs) (Ordinance 2784); • Waiver of systems development charges (SDCs) for ADUs and multifamily affordable housing developments (Ordinance 2810); • Rezoning of public and privately-owned properties to allow multifamily development with affordable housing under a voluntary inclusionary housing policy; • Land banking and sale of City-owned property for development of affordable housing; • Advocacy for affordable housing, including securing federal American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) funds for for-sale affordable units; • Funding of public infrastructure improvements associated with affordable housing development; • Inclusion of a percentage of affordable housing in the North Anchor Redevelopment project; and • Adoption of code amendments to permit middle housing in ail zones that allow the development of detached single-family dwellings (Ordinance 2982). Over the last three years, the City has permitted or is assisting with the development of approximately 180 affordable housing units, including both for-sale and rental units for those earning <30% - 80% AMI. In 2020, the Council approved a proposal to add affordable multi-family dwellings as a permitted use in the Campus Institutional zone at the former Marylhurst University Campus site, and earlier this year Mercy Housing Northwest broke ground on 100 units of affordable multi-family housing for residents earning 60% of AMI or less at the site. Following a similar rezoning on the west side of Lake Oswego, the Council approved an intergovernmental agreement with Metro to sell a City-owned property on Boones Ferry Road (formerly used for construction staging) for the development of approximately 50 affordable housing units for those earning<30% - 80%AMI. In the same general area, the City helped secure ARPA funds and has also allocated $800,000 in City funds for public Housing Production Strategy Task Force Overview &Work Plan Page 4 of 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 33 OF 56 infrastructure in support of a Habitat for Humanity development comprised of 23 affordable for-sale town homes. As noted, the Lake Oswego City Council currently has a goal to "Conserve the community's quality of life by planning for growth and change," and an initiative to "Complete work on key housing initiatives, including HB 2003 compliance," The Council and Planning Commission recently provided direction to proceed with a multi-phased work plan to amend the City's Comprehensive Plan in order to comply with the housing production strategy requirements of the bill. WORK PLAN / MEETING SCHEDULE The HPS Task Force is expected to meet six times during the course of the HNA and HPS processes to provide guidance on key elements of the project. Following is a proposed preliminary schedule of meetings and agenda topics. The schedule and topics may be refined to some degree as we move forward with the project. 1. Kickoff Meeting— December 16, 2022 a. Establish the organization and management of the Task Force i. Member introductions ii. Elect a chair and vice-chair iii. Adopt bylaws (including how decisions will be made) b. Reach a common understanding of the project i. Project overview ii. Review work plan and schedule c. Discuss and confirm desired outcomes 2. Meeting#2— March 2023 (date/time TBD) a. Review and provide input on the Draft Housing Needs Projection, Draft Residential Buildable Lands Inventory, and Draft Residential Land Needs Analysis 3. Meeting#3—June 2023 (date/time TBD) a. Discuss and evaluate housing strategy alternatives that address the needs identified in the updated Draft Housing Needs Analysis 4. Meeting#4—September 2023 (date/time TBD) a. Continue discussion and evaluation of housing strategy alternatives that address the needs identified in the updated ❑raft Housing Needs Analysis 5. Meeting#5— December 2023 -January 2024 (date/time TBD) a. Discuss and provide input on Housing Strategy Alternatives memo b. Discuss and/or refine Housing Production Strategy recommendations 6. Meeting#6— May 2024 (date/time TBD) a. Finalize Housing Production Strategy recommendations Housing Production Strategy Task Force❑verview &Work Plan Page 5 of 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 34 OF 56 RESOLUTION 22-30 A RESOLUTION OF THE LAKE OSWEGO CITY COUNCIL CREATING AN AD HOC HOUSING PRODUCTION STRATEGY TASK FORCE,AND OF THE COUNCIL MEMBERS APPROVING THE MAYOR'S APPOINTMENTS TO THE AD HOC HOUSING PRODUCTION STRATEGY TASK FORCE WHEREAS, a goal of the Lake Oswego City Council is to "Conserve the community's quality of life by planning for change and growth"; and WHEREAS, a City Council initiative is to "Complete work on key housing initiatives, including HB 2001 code adoption, HB 2003 compliance, decision-making on a possible project on the Boones Ferry Road Staging area, and support for other non-profit led housing projects"; and WHEREAS, the City Council desires to create an Ad Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force (the "Task Force") consisting of persons interested in helping the City Council and Planning Commission identify critical housing needs and recommend strategies to address them in order to reach compliance with House Bill 2003; and WHEREAS, the Mayor has proposed appointing those listed on Attachment 1 to this Resolution as members of the Task Force, and as provided in the Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 19, the Mayor shall appoint, with the approval the Councilors, the members of all City committees, including task forces; BE IT RESOLVED by the Lake Oswego City Council that: Section 1. As authorized by LOC 12.50.005 and 12.50.010, there is hereby created an Ad Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force. Section 2. The term of the Task Force will be from the date of this resolution through June 30, 2024, unless concluded earlier or extended by a resolution of the City Council. Section 3. The Task Force is charged with making recommendations to the City Council and Planning Commission consistent with the following objectives: • Conserve the community's quality of life by planning for change and growth; • Ensure compliance with HB 2003 (House Bill 2003-Housing Needs and Production); • Provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission as the City identifies current and future housing needs and develops strategies to address them; • Follow a schedule that allows the Planning Commission to consider Comprehensive Plan amendments to update the City's Housing Needs Analysis by September 2023, so that the City Council may adopt an HB 2003-compliant Housing Needs Analysis no later than December 2023; • Follow a schedule that will allow the Planning Commission to consider housing production strategy alternatives by February 2024, so that the City Council may adopt HB 2003-compliant Comprehensive Plan amendments and take other action, as needed, to develop a Housing Production Strategy and Implementation Plan within one-year of Resolution 22-30 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 35 OF 56 the adoption of the updated Housing Needs Analysis. Section 4. The Task Force shall recommend outreach strategies, Comprehensive Plan amendments, and other actions to update the City's Housing Needs Analysis and develop a Housing Production Strategy and Implementation Plan, consistent with the above objectives. The Committee's work shall be accomplished in regular meetings from ❑ctober 2022 through June 2024. Section 5. At its first meeting, the Task Force shall elect a Chair and Vice Chair, as provided in LOC 12.50.025. The Committee shall follow all provisions of LOC Article 12.50 that apply to ad hoc committees, except that, instead of requiring a simple majority of the members present and eligible to vote to decide any question [LOC 12.50.030(2)], a vote by two-thirds of the members present and eligible to vote will be required to decide any question. Section 6. The Task Force shall comply with all requirements of ❑regon Public Meetings Law, ORS 192.610 et seq. Section 7. Any member who is absent for two consecutive meetings of the Task Force is automatically removed from the Committee and new members will not be appointed to fill their positions. Section 8. The Councilors hereby approve the Mayor's appointment of the persons identified on Exhibit A to the Task Force (the Mayor's vote on this Resolution shall not deemed to apply to this Section). Section 9. This Resolution shall be effective immediately upon its adoption by the City Council. 11 11 [Signatures on Next Page] Resolution 22-30 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 36 OF 56 Adopted by Mayor (as to Sections 1-7 and 9), and by City Councilors at the meeting of the Lake Oswego City Council held on the 4th day of October, 2022. AYES: Mayor Buck, Nguyen,Verdick, Rapf, Manz, Mboup, Wendland NOES: None EXCUSED: None ABSTAIN: None Joseph M. Buck, Mayor ATTEST: Kari Linder, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Evan Boone, City Attorney Pro Tem Resolution 22-30 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 37 OF 56 EXHIBIT A TO RESULUTION 22-30 The persons appointed to the Housing Production Strategy Task Force are as follows: 1. City Council Liaison (non-voting): Mayor Joseph M. Buck 2. Planning Commission Liaison (non-voting): Phillip Stewart 3. 50+Advisory Board Representative: Douglas Corder 4. Transportation Advisory Board Representative: Kasey Adler 5. Development Review Commission Representative: Bruce Poinsette 6. At-large Member—Housing producer:Sarah Walker 7. At-large Member—Housing producer: David Tangvald 8. At-large Member—Housing producer: Phil Bertrand 9. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Kyrsten Baumgart 10. At-large Member—Housing consumer:Yoko Kinoshita 11. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Betty Jung 12. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Cara Kao-Young 13. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Rebecca Lane 14. At-large Member—Housing consumer:John E. Pauley 15. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Rosalie Nowalk 16. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Pat Ginn 17. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Diana Howell 18. At-large Member—Housing consumer:John Turchi LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 38 OF 56 Task 1—Project Kickoff City staff will work with the selected Consultant to familiarize them with the proposed project and local conditions, providing relevant documents, maps,and history related to the project.The Consultant will work with City Staff to develop and refine a schedule based upon a mutual understanding of project goals and objectives, and will coordinate with City staff to lead a Kickoff Meeting with the HPS Task Force. Subtasks: 1.1 Research and information gathering.The City shall provide the Consultant with relevant background information and documents, maps,and plans, including, but not limited to: • City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, including 2013 Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis • Planning permit application data for last 5 years • Residential zone change data for last 5 years • Boones Ferry Road Affordable Housing Initiative—Values Summary(2022) • Lake Oswego Neighborhood Character Report(2021) • Lake Oswego Middle Housing Opportunities Report(2021) • Summary of SB 4006 (2018) Public Meeting on Rent Burden (2019) • Geographic Information Systems data • Lake Oswego Community Development Code(LOC Ch.50) [Ordinances can be found under the Code's table of contents, "Ordinance Table",following Chapter 60. Click on the PDF icon.] The Consultant shall obtain necessary background information and documents from relevant agencies, including the most recent versions of, but not limited to: • Applicable Metro Regional Population and Employment Range Forecasts • Most recent Metro Urban Growth Management Report • Housing affordability indices, including relevant data from the Housing Authority of Clackamas County and Oregon Department of Housing and Community Services 1.2 Refine project schedule.The Consultant shall work with City staff to confirm the objectives of the project and refine a proposed project schedule. 1.3 Develop plan for public involvement:The selected Consultant will develop a Public Involvement Plan that focuses on how to productively engage housing consumers within the City through methods such as public events, interviews,focus groups,surveys, or other similar efforts. Public engagement shall prioritize underrepresented communities, including renters; low-income households; seniors; people with disabilities; persons of color; immigrant or refugee communities;formerly or currently homeless people;and individuals with limited English proficiency. City staff will provide the selected Consultant with a list of groups and organizations that need to be engaged through the course of the project. Public engagement efforts shall build upon the City's previous housing-related outreach related to House Bill 2001 and affordable housing,and Page 1 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 39 OF 56 should be coordinated with the event(s) required under HB 4006 for severely rent burdened communities.Stakeholders also include those who are currently developing affordable housing in Lake Oswego, including the Mercy Housing Northwest(Marylhurst Commons) and Habitat for Humanity(West Lake Grove townhomes),and others who are assisting the City and Metro in planning for development of affordable housing.See the Boones Ferry Road Affordable Housing Initiative. 1.3 Create outreach materials. The selected Consultant will create graphic and written materials to help educate the community about the goals and objectives of the project, including a description of the basic elements of a Housing Needs Analysis(HNA)and Housing Production Strategy(HPS), and how this planning effort could help improve the availability of needed housing within the community. The City will host a project webpage, with the Consultant being responsible for producing informational materials in a format suitable for use as both website content and handouts. 1.4 Establish Housing Production Strategy Task Force. The City will recruit and appoint members of a Housing Production Strategy Task Force(HPS Task Force) in order to provide guidance throughout the course of the project. 1.5 Host kickoff meeting. Consultant will facilitate HPS Task Force Meeting No. 1 to provide an overview of the project, solicit feedback on the draft public engagement plan,discuss and confirm desired outcomes,and review the project schedule. City staff will prepare minutes for all task force meetings,and the selected Consultant will be responsible for drafting summaries of surveys,focus group discussions, and other engagement opportunities. Task 1 Meetings: • PMT kickoff meeting • HPS Task Force kickoff meeting Task 1 Consultant Work Products: • Project schedule • Public Involvement Plan • Summary of major tasks, including technical memorandums and outreach events • Presentation and other materials for HPS Task Force meeting Task 2—Draft Housing Needs Analysis 5ubtasks: 2.1 Draft Housing Needs Projection.The Consultant will prepare a draft housing needs projection consistent with OAR Chapter 660,divisions 7 and 8.The housing needs projection will be used to determine the City's residential land need in Task 2.3 and is a baseline set of data that the Consultant will build upon to contextualize current and future housing needs for the Housing Production Strategy(HPS),considering population and market trends. Analysis of contextualized housing needs will include: ■ Socio-economic and demographic trends of a jurisdiction's population, disaggregated by race to the extent possible with available data; Page 2 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 40 OF 56 • Market conditions affecting the provision of needed housing, including demand for seasonal housing, as applicable; • Existing and expected barriers to the development of needed housing; • Housing need for those experiencing homelessness, using the best available data; • Percentage of Rent-Burdened Households; • Household income; • Household size; • Housing by Tenure (owner vs renter); • Percentage of housing stock that is market rate vs. subsidized; and • Units that are in the development pipeline by housing type and affordability if subsidized. The Consultant will develop a draft of the housing needs projection and a framework outlining the socio-economic and demographic data.The analysis will be vetted with,and draw upon, information gathered through engagement with housing consumers, including underrepresented communities, before being presented at HPS Task Force Meeting No. 2.The Consultant will address HPS Task Force comments and draft a Contextualized Housing Needs Memorandum,which will later become a section of the HPS. The City will review and provide feedback to the Consultant on the draft work products, assist with coordinating and facilitating outreach and engagement, and provide staff support for the HPS Task Force, including preparation of meeting notices,agendas,and minutes for HPS Task Force Meetings Nos. 2 and 3.The Consultant will coordinate all meeting materials, including presentations with the City's project manager and facilitate the meetings.The Consultant should be prepared to present multiple deliverables at each meeting in order to keep the project on schedule. 2.2 Draft Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI):The selected Consultant will prepare a draft inventory of the supply of buildable lands and a determination of the actual density mix of housing consistent with OAR Chapter 660, Division 8.The draft report shall include map(s) showing vacant, partially developed and redevelopable lands where needed housing is allowed; and an inventory report describing the methodology. The development of the BLI shall be a combined effort between the Consultant and the City with input from the HPS Task Force. It is envisioned that the Consultant will provide technical and other recommendations to refine the draft BLI and ensure that it is consistent with DLCD's Workbook.The City shall provide the GIS resources and staffing to refine the inventory. The City is the lead for coordination with Metro,the County,and DLCD,with the Consultant providing support and participating in meetings with the agencies as needed. The City will schedule and provide notice and an agenda for HPS Task Force Meeting No.4 to review the draft BLI.The Consultant will coordinate with City on all materials,including the presentation with the City's project manager and facilitate the meeting. 2.3 Draft Residential Land Needs Analysis(RLNA). The Consultant shall prepare a Residential Land Needs Analysis that incorporates local, regional, and state housing and income data and is consistent with and builds upon the methodology described in DLCD's Planning for Residential Growth:A Workbook for Oregon's Urban Areas.The RLNA shall project housing units needed by housing type and density over the 20-year planning period, including housing affordable to those earning less than the area median income. Page 3 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 41 OF 56 The RLNA shall include but not be limited to the following: a. Population Projection/ Base Case Housing Unit Projection—Estimate the additional housing units(type and density) required for a 20-year period. Using a 20-year projection to 2030,the Consultant shall determine a "base case" housing units needs by using the most up-to-date and available information from the US Census, Portland State University Center for Population Research and Census, Metro, and/or other reliable sources. b. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis—Identify relevant economic and household trends that relate to the demand for different types of housing.The Consultant shall rely on the most up-to-date and available information from the US Census, Portland State University Center for Population Research and Census, Metro, and/or other reliable sources to examine historical demographic and economic trends at the local, county, and statewide level. c. Identify Affordable Housing Types and Allocations—Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the projected households based on household income. d. Identify Needed Densities by Plan Designation/Zoning District—Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type. 2.4 Prepare Final HNA Report. Following review by staff and revisions as needed,the consultant will prepare a final draft of the Housing Needs Analysis Report and present it to the HPS Task Force, Planning Commission,and City Council.The consultant will summarize HPS Task Force comments on the draft and make any minor updates to the draft following Task Force review. Following public review and comment,the consultant will produce a final version of the HNA Report.The Final HNA Report will contain an Executive Summary and narrative,tables, and maps describing the city's existing housing stock, projected housing needs,and other data, conclusions, and recommendations from the preceding tasks. The Consultant will present the Final HNA report at one public workshop or open house to solicit input from the public.The consultant will coordinate all meeting materials and the presentation with City staff. Task 2 Meetings: • PMT Meetings (5 total) • HPS Task Force Meetings (3 total) • Public Workshop or Open House Task 2 Consultant Work Products: • Draft and Final Housing Needs Analysis Report, including: o Executive Summary o Housing Needs Projection; o Residential Buildable Lands Inventory; o Residential Needs Analysis;and Page 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 42 OF 56 o Conclusions and Recommendations. • Presentation and other materials for all meetings Task 3:Housing Production Strategy 3.1 Evaluate existing housing strategies.The consultant will review the policies and other measures already adopted by the City for their effectiveness in promoting the development of needed housing.The City will identify and provide all available information about existing relevant measures.The consultant will also interview key City staff and up to eight (8) housing producers and/or service providers to seek input on existing policies and programs, and potential new strategies for housing.This input will be used to identify strategy alternatives to address the most housing and residential land needs as determined in previous tasks. 3.2 Outline housing strategy alternatives,which shall be summarized in a Housing Strategy Alternatives Memo. The Consultant shall draft a Housing Strategy Alternatives Memo addressing any changes to the City's comprehensive plan, public facility master plans, land use regulations,fees,and other policies and programs, as applicable,that would be most effective in supporting the production of needed housing. For example,the Memo might identify strategies for prioritizing infrastructure investments,amendments to zoning and development standards,and new incentives(regulatory or financial) to encourage the production of needed housing, considering the results of previous tasks. The Consultant will present the Memo to the HPS Task Force in two meetings in order to introduce the housing strategy alternatives and receive input.The consultant will coordinate with the City on all meeting materials and presentations with City staff, and facilitate the HPS Task Force meetings. 3.3 Refine housing strategy recommendations.The consultant will work with City staff and the HP5 Task Force to refine the list of alternative housing strategy options developed in Task 3.2 in an Initial Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo, pursuant to direction from the Planning Commission and City Council. The Consultant shall draft a Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo with a refined list of strategies based on input from Task 3.2.The Consultant will also attend and present this Memo at 2 HPS Task Force meetings for review and input in order to develop a preferred list of strategies for inclusion in the HPS. Recommended strategies will be presented to the Planning Commission and City Council for further direction. The City will schedule and provide notice and an agenda for each HPS Task Force meeting.The consultant will be expected to coordinate all meeting and presentation materials with City staff, and facilitate the meetings.The HPS Task Force may review more than one strategy option at each meeting.The Consultant shall provide a brief paper, case study, or similar written description illustrating each strategy,as generally outlined below. For the strategies that are recommended for inclusion in the City's HPS,the consultant will produce the following for each strategy within the Initial Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo, based on the consultant's evaluation, input from staff,and feedback gathered through outreach and engagement: Page 5 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 43 OF 56 • A description of the strategy; • Identified housing need being fulfilled and analysis of the income and demographic populations that will receive benefit and/or burden from the strategy, including low- income communities,communities of color, and other communities that have been discriminated against,according to fair housing laws; • Approximate magnitude of impact, including(where possible/applicable)an estimate of the number of housing units that may be created, and the time frame over which the strategy is expected to impact needed housing; • Timeline for adoption and implementation; • Actions necessary for the local government and other stakeholders to take in order to implement the strategy; • Potential cost and funding source options; • Feasibility of the strategy based on a general assessment of opportunities and constraints. 3.4 Draft Housing Production Strategy(HPS)Report. The consultant will prepare a first draft of a Housing Production Strategy Report for City review and feedback.The consultant's analysis will be informed by the recommendations contained in the HNA, and shall be developed in consultation with the HPS Task Force,the Planning Commission, and the City Council before being synthesized into a draft HPS. The HPS Report is to incorporate the results of Tasks 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3, including an explanation of how the City's existing measures and final proposed strategies help to achieve fair and equitable housing outcomes,affirmatively further fair housing, and overcome discriminatory housing practices and racial segregation. HPS Report shall include: 1. A qualitative assessment of how the strategies collectively address the contextualized housing needs identified in the HNA and,taken collectively, will increase housing options for population groups experiencing a current or projected disproportionate housing need, including: o Existing City policies,codes,and programs; o Proposed actions; 2. An explanation for any identified needs not otherwise addressed above; and 3. An outline the City's plan for monitoring progress on the housing production strategies. 3.5 Finalize the HPS for adoption as an appendix to the Comprehensive Plan. Following review by staff and revisions, as needed, the consultant will produce a public review draft of the Final HPS Report for review and comment by the HPS Task Force, Planning Commission,City Council,and other interested parties.The consultant will summarize the HPS Task Force comments on the draft and make any minor updates to the draft as required. Following public review and comment,the consultant will produce a final version of the HPS Report. Page 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 44 OF 56 The City will host one public open house or similar meeting to present and receive feedback on the key strategies outlined in the draft HPS.The consultant will assist staff with the presentation. Task 3 Meetings: • PMT Meetings(4 total) • HPS Task Force Meetings(2 total) • Public Workshop or Open House Task 3 Work Products: • Housing Strategy Alternatives Memo • Initial Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo • Draft and Final Housing Production Strategy Report • Presentation and other materials for public workshop or open house event Page 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 45 OF 56 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis ^ " `r';r_ 1 J ° Ecu^ Public Involvement Plan DRAFT — January 2023 Introduction The City of Lake Oswego is updating its Housing Needs Analysis to reflect current conditions in the City and projected future needs.This Public Involvement Plan describes the roles of City staff and the consultant team in engagement efforts, with the intent of making efficient use of consultant time while helping the City deepen its relationships with the community it serves. These engagement efforts will prioritize underrepresented communities within the city, including(as applicable to Lake Oswego) Black, Indigenous and People of Color; renters; low-income households; immigrant or refugee community members; veterans; people with disabilities; seniors; agricultural workers; and people currently experiencing homelessness or who formerly experienced homelessness. The engagement will be coordinated with other events, including those required under 2018's House Bill 4006.1 This document provides a working list of the public involvement activities proposed as part of the Lake Oswego Housing Needs Assessment (HNA). It is intended as a living document and may be updated as the project progresses. Project Schedule A detailed project schedule is being developed. Initial thinking about milestones as they relate to public involvement are shown below.They are generally organized into two phases. Phase 1: Buildable Land and Housing Need—October 2022 to June 2023 • Task 1. Project Kickoff: October 2022—December 2022 • Task 2. Draft Housing Needs Analysis: November 2022—March 2023 • Task 3. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory: November 2022—March 2023 • Task 4. Residential Land Needs Analysis: March—May 2023 • Task 5. Final Housing Needs Analysis Report: May—July 2023 Phase 2: Housing Strategies—June 2023 to March 2024 • Task 6. Housing Strategies Alternatives:July—November 2023 • Task 7. Housing Strategies Recommendations: November 2023—January 2024 • Task 8. Housing Production Strategies Report:January—March 2024 Desired Project Outcomes The public engagement as part of this effort is intended to: ' Housing Production Reporting https://www.oregon.gav/Icd/UP/Pages/Reparting.aspx Page 1 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 46 OF 56 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis j WI J � Fc • Inform the public about City activities • Involve stakeholders by asking relevant questions and telling the public how their answers influenced the project. • Empower participants to help shape City policy on important topics. Engagement Methods The following methods are proposed to engage the community during this process. Housing Production Strategy Task Force (HPS Task Force) The City will convene a Housing Production Strategy Task Force to guide this project. • Membership.The HP5 Task Force will include individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds, identities, income ranges, and professions,The goal of convening such a body is to hear a wide range of opinions and ideas and develop recommendations that represent them. • Meetings.The HP5 Task Force will meet a total of 5 times—three times on items related to the Draft Housing Needs Analysis Report (Task 2) and two times on items related to the Housing Production Strategy Report(Task 3), Meetings may be in person or virtual, hybrid, or some combination thereof. • Role.The role of the HPS Task Force will be to guide the process by reviewing draft materials, providing feedback related to their personal or professional experience and opinions, and informing the broader public about this process through their individual networks. At their December 2022 meeting, the HPS Task Force elected a chair and vice chair and adopted a set of bylaws. This information can be found on the City's website. Public Workshops/Open Houses Two online workshops or open houses will be held as part of this effort, one with a focus on items related to the Draft Housing Needs Analysis Report(Task 2) and one focused on items related to the Housing Production Strategy Report (Task 3). Meeting Topics • Task 2 Workshop/Open House. This open house will address Buildable Lands Inventory, Housing Needs Projection, and resulting analysis.These elements of the Housing Needs Analysis provide a picture of the City's current land base, existing and future demographics, and a projection of needed housing.The broader public will be invited to comment on these technical materials, as well as describe what they think the community's priorities on housing overall should be. This input will inform the priorities and strategies that come as part of the following task. • Task 3 Workshop/Open House. This open house will present a draft set of recommended Housing Production Strategies which the City can undertake to meet housing needs and the priority, timing, costs, and implementation thereof. Meeting Logistics • Meetings are expected to take the form of online surveys that summarize material and guide participants through a set of questions. An in-person component where this material is presented on poster boards, with a printed-out version of the survey also could be an alternative option. Page 2 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 47 OF 56 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis � ' r i 0 Stakeholder Interviews Additional stakeholder interviews with community members and housing partners may be conducted to supplement the expertise and experience of the Housing Task Force. Project Website The City of Lake Oswego will host a website that describes the project and lets the public access draft documents as they are available.The website will provide a link to a comment form and/or direct email contact for the project. Consultant will provide information for the website. Additional Outreach Materials Additional engagement efforts may include: • Preparation of materials such as"fact sheets" or other short documents that highlight housing issues, challenges, and potential solutions • Presentation materials for community group or stakeholder meetings • Brief online surveys conducted as part of other efforts or on their own. We expect that these materials will incorporate infographics and other illustrations wherever possible to convey information quickly and intuitively and provide visual examples of housing conditions and successful strategies in Lake Oswego and other similar communities. Ivey Messages These key messages summarize the what,who, when,where,why,and how of the process, and constitute the basic talking points when communicating with the public about the project.The entries below are a first draft for early phases of the process—they will change and expand as the project evolves. • What:The City of Lake Oswego is preparing a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) and Housing Production Strategy(HPS).This work will describe current housing conditions and plan for how to address future housing needs, including specific actions that the City and its partners can take to increase the production of needed housing. • Who:All residents of the City are encouraged to participate in this planning process and will have many opportunities to provide input, including at Housing Task Force meetings,online community open houses,and via the City's website, by phone, or email. Regional housing partners will also be included in the creation of this plan. • When:This effort began in late 2022 and will conclude in early 2024. • Where:This effort specifically addresses the land inside the City of Lake Oswego. • Why:Cities in Oregon are required to plan for the housing needs of all community members, and to identify specific actions to ensure that needed housing is produced. • How:This process will be guided by a Housing Task Force,with a diverse membership representing the Lake Oswego community. It will include an analysis of residential land in the City, a projection of needed housing,and an evaluation of strategies that the City can use to meet its current and future housing needs. Page 3 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 48 OF 56 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis '.M1 ` L^ y, V O ..1 cot' Key Stakeholders The City has identified the following stakeholders: Builders Advisory Group.This is a group of housing industry stakeholders that the City of Lake Oswego has reached out to for other projects.These are subject matter experts with diverse opinions and roles in the world of housing;they will be involved on technical matters. Affordable Housing Stakeholders.This group was part of recent affordable housing outreach done by the City.They represent affordable housing advocates,those seeking affordable housing,and neighbors of affordable housing developments. Neighborhood Associations. Lake Oswego has several official Neighborhood Associations. Members of these associations will be invited to participate, and where possible brief presentations can be made to these organizations to introduce the project and get input. N-'['Srlryia 4 'Y' L..../.1..: 'It: ' 1 R ailt ewe PAR[r • ( i __.r 1pAfsl r�tiMhua,kyr�, .jam / - HWH!/MDY fy a � _ rr rx AAOrnoN- ! orts.[A0.f OROiARa .-—-, • '., FpAfsi Mills `wl •M, M1RTH 5I1014 :: '+ !ALLY UPLANDS I�-(•p(N►M1'CUM i �TRIIREFH , — ' IYALIJGA •� .�"•r', _,� P WA421t nrk-' ..i4AA ypr." u/[FNOGa o[O . PIA FOREST - LACE 17Ro17L_ ... .. ••`�'•••�•`•.• - .: { r iMeVF'r5ptI7H•. •t -••S , _ SNORE NAi I WAN .'i.� -. __.:r ..'• t% .r 1 FtEMWARif `F+ CRrAH/ } PA[iSAbFS GOY it r-.--4 "� `~ alum ; f : - 11(FaN.• lam AND' 6 cneb• C-- ROM f-) t--,,_ _,-,--, ___ .....- :, , „...... Page 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 49 OF 56 Housing Production Strategy Task Force �)1` Ad Hoc Task Force Charge Statement & Bylaws (� �� Adopted — December 16, 2022 — .0100, ° TASK FORCE CHARGE oR GOO�� See Resolution 22-30, attached. TASK FORCE COMPOSITION The Housing Production Strategy Task Force consists of the members appointed by City Council in Attachment 1 to Resolution 22-30, pursuant to Resolution 22-30(Resolution attached). A Task Force Chair and Vice-Chair will be selected by the group. Given the limited timeframe of the Task Force's work, in the event that a member cannot serve out the term of this appointment or fulfill their responsibilities, no alternate will be chosen to fill the vacancy unless directed by the City Council. Any member who has two unexcused consecutive absences is automatically removed from the Task Force, and new members will not be appointed to fill their positions. MEMBER RESPONSIBILITY The Housing Production Strategy Task Force will be making recommendations to City Council that will also serve as guidance to the Planning Commission,as provided in Resolution 22-30. The Task Force is expected to: • Review the Lake Oswego Neighborhood Character Report (2021), the Middle Housing Opportunities Report (2021), the Middle Housing Code Advisory Committee (MHCAC) Key Issues Summary Memo (2021), and the City's Comprehensive Plan—including the 2013 Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis. • Review documents produced by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) relevant to housing needs and production, including: the Oregon Administrative Rules for House Bill 2003 (OAR 660-008-0045 through -0070); the List of Tools, Actions, and Policies for the Housing Production Strategy Program; the Anti-Displacement and Gentrification Toolkit; and other information and resources available through DLCD's Housing Needs website. • Come to meetings prepared to give thoughtful input. • Listen carefully and with an open mind; respect one another and City staff, and accept differences of opinion with a goal of understanding the interests of all members. ▪ Ask questions and make informed recommendations to advance the project forward. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Charge Statement and Bylaws Page 1 of 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 50 OF 56 ▪ Review and comment on materials provided for each Task Force meeting. Make recommendations at key junctures throughout the process. ▪ Strive for reaching consensus among the Task Force based on support for proposals as a whole. ▪ Assist in informing the community about state requirements under House Bill 2003 (HB 2003), which include an update to the City's Housing Needs Analysis and the development of a new Housing Production Strategy t❑ address the City's housing needs. ▪ Solicit input from and represent their stakeholder groups as appropriate. PROJECT STAFF RESPONSIBILITY City staff and project consultants will do the following t❑ support the Housing Production Strategy Task Force process: ■ Support the Task Force Chair in facilitating a transparent and inclusive process where all participants are heard. ■ Provide the Task Force with relevant,factual information in a timely manner and readily understandable format to facilitate decision-making. ■ Prepare meeting agendas in consultation with the Task Force chair,and prepare meeting summaries that focus on discussion topics and key agreements. ■ Maintain a project web page and central file repository where the Task Force and public can access all meeting materials and key work products. ■ Provide opportunities for the public to provide input, and make public comments available to the Task Force, decision-makers and public. ■ Be accessible and responsive to questions and ideas from the Task Force. QUORUMS AND DECISIONS At its first meeting,the Task Force shall elect a Chair and Vice Chair, as provided in LOC 12.50.025. The Task Force shall follow all provisions of LOC Article 12.5❑that apply to ad hoc committees, except that, instead of requiring a simple majority of the members present and eligible to vote to decide any question [LOC 12.50.030(2)], a vote by two-thirds of the members present and eligible to vote will be required to approve a policy recommendation. Members shall strive for consensus and may use straw poll, interactive/instant polling, or consensus voting procedures to gauge members' opinions. For controversial issues,the Task Force may include a minority opinion with the majority recommendation. Where the Task Force does not reach consensus on a particular issue a roll-call vote shall be taken. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Charge Statement and Bylaws Page 2 of 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 51 OF 56 TIMEFRAME Pursuant to Resolution 22-30, attached, the Task Force is tasked with: • Recommending Comprehensive Plan amendments to update the City's Housing Needs Analysis by September 2023, so that the City Council may adopt an HB 2003-compliant Housing Needs Analysis no later than ❑ecember 2023; and • Evaluating housing production strategy alternatives and producing recommendations by February 2024, so that the City Council may adopt HB 2003-compliant Comprehensive Plan amendments and take other action, as needed, to develop a Housing Production Strategy and Implementation Plan within ❑ne-year of the adoption of the updated Housing Needs Analysis. PUBLIC RECORDS Regular meetings of the Task Force will be held by Zoom. All meetings will be subject to the requirements of Oregon Public Meetings Law, ❑RS 192.610 et seq. All meetings will be recorded and vide❑ of the meetings will be posted to the project website for public observation. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Charge Statement and Bylaws Page 3 of 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 52 OF 56 HOUSING PRODUCTION STRATEGY TASK FORCE MEETING BYLAWS I. Commitment to Decision-making Process The Ad Hoc Task Force ("Task Force") will endeavor to reach consensus on recommendations to comply with state middle housing requirements. A consensus process will enable the members to freely discuss issues and to arrive at a decision. Consensus is a participatory process whereby, on matters of substance, the members strive for agreements that they can accept, support, live with, or agree not to oppose. Consensus means that no members voiced objection to the position and they agree not to oppose the position. Expectations for the decision-making process include: A. The Task Force agrees that consensus has a high value and that the members should strive to achieve it. B. The commitment to work for consensus means that members will participate in the give-and-take of the process in a way that seeks to understand the interests of all, and will work together to find solutions workable for all, C. When consensus cannot be reached,the facilitator or chair may initiate or entertain a motion to vote on the issue. Members may make motions and seconds. All motions must be seconded to be acted upon. D. Votes shall be taken by all present participating members. A vote by two-thirds of the members present and eligible to vote will be required to approve or advance a policy recommendation. E. If no consensus is reached on an issue ❑r recommendation, minority positions and any alternatives considered will be documented. Those with minority opinions are responsible for proposing alternative solutions or approaches to resolve differences. F. Meetings will be conducted in a manner deemed appropriate by the chair and facilitator to foster collaborative decision-making and consensus building. Robert's Rules of Order will be applied when deemed appropriate by the chair or facilitator. G. Task Force members will honor decisions made, including accurately representing Task Force decisions to the public, and avoid re-opening issues once resolved. H. Task Force members will strive to make decisions within the agreed-to timeframe. Meeting notes will be kept documenting decisions of the Task Force. The Task Force will review, make any corrections to, and then approve the notes. Notes for the final Task Force meeting will be distributed to the Task Force Chair for their approval. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Charge Statement and Bylaws Page 4 of 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 53 OF 56 II. Ground Rules for Conduct of the Task Force All participants agree to act in good faith in all aspects of the planning process. This includes being honest and refraining from undertaking any actions that will undermine or threaten this process. It also includes behavior outside of meetings. Expectations for behavior of Ad Hoc Task Force participants—including members and project staff— during and outside of meetings include: A. Participants agree to be respectful at all times of others.They will listen to each other to seek to understand the other's perspective,even if they disagree. One person will speak at a time. Side conversations and other meeting disruptions will be avoided. For virtual/videoconference meetings, members should have both video and audio functions enabled and refrain from private/chat conversations. B. Participants agree to make every effort to bring all aspects of their concerns about these issues into this process to be addressed. C. Participants agree to refrain from personal attacks, intentionally undermining the process,and publicly criticizing or misstating the positions taken by any other participants during the process. Participants shall maintain a "safe" space for Task Force proceedings, where there is permission to constructively and respectfully express all perspectives, including unique or opposing viewpoints, without fear of being met with criticism or recrimination. D. Any written communications, including e-mails, blogs and other social networking media,will be mindful of these procedural ground rules and will maintain a respectful tone even if highlighting different perspectives. Members are reminded that any City government e-mail, blog and other social networking media is considered public record. E. Non-members upon registering with City staff may attend virtual/videoconference Ad Hoc Task Force meetings. The public may also submit written comments for distribution to the Ad Hoc Task Force, but may not otherwise participate in the Task Force deliberations. F. Requests for information made outside of meetings will be directed to the City staff. Responses to such requests will be limited to items that can reasonably be provided within a reasonable amount of time. G. All participation in this process is voluntary. A member may withdraw by submitting a written withdrawal request to the Task Force Chair or City staff project manager. However, members agree that before withdrawing they will discuss the reason for their withdrawal with the Chair or City staff and will give the Task Force the opportunity to understand the reasons for withdrawal and to encourage continued participation, if appropriate. Housing Production Strategy Task Force Charge Statement and Bylaws Page 5 of 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 54 OF 56 ATTACHMENTS Council Resolution 22-30, Creation of Ad Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force(incl. Attachment 1) Housing Production Strategy Task Force Charge Statement and Bylaws Page 6 of 6 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 55 OF 56 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis and Housing Production Strategy-Project Schedule 2022 2023 2024 TASKS Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr M. Project Kickoff Housing Needs Analysis • � r Residential Buildable Lands Inventory Residential Lands Needs ~ Analysis Final Housing Needs Analysis Report Housing Strategies Alternatives • r Housing Strategies Recommendations LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-2/PAGE 56 OF 56 ���A MEMORANDUM 11*4.• V °REGOt. TO: Planning Commission/Commission for Citizen Involvement FROM: Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager SUBJECT: House Bill 2003 Work Session #3 DATE: March 28, 2023 MEETING DATE: April 10, 2023 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY&ACTION REQUESTED This memo provides background on the Commission's upcoming work session scheduled for April 10, 2023, which will include a presentation describing the initial drafts of two components of the City of Lake Oswego's Housing Needs Analysis (HNA): the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) and Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA). The presentation will also include an update on recent public engagement, including the latest meeting of the Housing Production Strategy Task Force (Task Force). Pursuant to the requirements of House Bill 2003 (HB 2003), the City is required to update its HNA by December 31, 2023, and to adopt a Housing Production Strategy (HPS) by December 31, 2024. The City Council first prioritized this work as part of their 2022 goals and initiatives, which included continuing the multi-year work plan to complete work on key housing initiatives— including HB 2003 compliance. The purpose of the April 10 work session is for the Commission to provide guidance regarding the findings and assumptions outlined in the draft BLI and HCA documents. The final HNA Report will reconcile these documents through an analysis comparing the amount and type of land available for future residential uses with the amount and types of housing units needed by the City of Lake Oswego; the Commission will then consider whether to adopt the updated HNA at a public hearing on July 24. BACKGROUND Housing Needs Analysis An HNA is a document, incorporated into a city's comprehensive plan by ordinance, which assesses housing need and capacity over the course of a 20-year planning horizon. An HNA must include the inventory, determination, and analysis required under ORS 197.296 (Factors to establish sufficiency of buildable lands within urban growth boundary)(3): (3) In performing the duties under subsection (2) of this section, a local government shall: 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO BOX 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 1 OF 75 Page 2 (a) Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands; and (b) Conduct an analysis of existing and projected housing need by type and density range, in accordance with all factors under ORS 197.303 ("Needed housing" defined) and statewide planning goals and rules relating to housing, to determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for the next 20 years. The City last updated its HNA in 2013 as part of an update to the Comprehensive Plan; the HNA is currently an appendix to the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing chapter of the Comprehensive Plan (see Attachment A). House Bill 2003 HB 2003 (2019) was adopted by the Oregon Legislature in order to help local jurisdictions meet the housing needs of residents throughout the state by requiring that cities with over 10,000 residents: (1) analyze the future housing needs of their community through an HNA, and (2) develop strategies that promote the development of such needed housing through a Housing Production Strategy (HPS). Under the requirements of HB 2003, Lake Oswego is required to adopt an updated HNA by December 31, 2023, and to update its HNA once every six years thereafter. On June 21, 2022, the City Council approved staff's work plan for compliance with HB 2003 including issuing a request for proposals (RFP) to solicit consultant services. Council also committed to appoint an ad-hoc Task Force to provide high-level policy guidance to the Commission and City Council as the City proceeds with HB 2003 compliance. The Commission held their first work session on this subject on June 27, 2022, in order to provide guidance to staff on the proposed work plan prior to issuing the RFP. On October 4, 2022, the City Council adopted Resolution 22-30 in order to create the HPS Task Force and appoint its members (see Attachment B). The City subsequently contracted with MIG, Inc. (with sub-consultant Johnson Economics) to complete the scope of work outlined in Attachment C. On January 23 of this year, the Planning Commission held their second work session to receive a presentation from staff and project consultants at MIG outlining the requirements of HB 2003 as related to updating the City's HNA and developing an HPS (see the materials from Work Session #2). The presentation also outlined the proposed public involvement plan in Attachment D and included an update on the progress of the HPS Task Force. On February 21, the City Council held a study session to receive similar information and provided guidance and input on the public involvement plan proposed by staff(see the materials from Council Study Session #2). 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 2 OF 75 Page 3 HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS: INITIAL DRAFTS This section includes brief summaries of two components of the City of Lake Oswego's HNA update: the BLI and HCA. Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) Staff and the consultant team have prepared a draft BLI (Attachment E) to identify land that can be expected to provide residential capacity for the City of Lake Oswego in the next 20 years. The general steps taken to produce the draft BLI include: • Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification. This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses, using information such as comprehensive plan/zoning designation, ownership information, and tax assessor data. Land that is in public ownership (such as owned by a school district or commonly owned by a homeowner's association) or religious/fraternal ownership is generally not considered available for residential uses. Figure 4: Land Classification is included below, depicting the results of this first land classification step per the methodology in Attachment E. Figure 4:BLI Land Classification I .-,. .VPI,r �1 1 I_Study Area 1"." �[' � ,:IIIi+ �� 1 ,' Lake Oswego City Ii . ' 4 "; _ _ _ Limits _f�l� ` ,I 1�af•-_ �+, i+ �� . . _ i ' Land Type 'Lull' °` r i f4114� x.ri _ _ _ _ r Residential +I, r :ii1 +L„1 y41 II 5 ,i * m Mixed Use : ►� :.,..� !WV � O Public/Other FitH-rill #1 - � ,4% _ Non-Residential r A„N! 1111" + I .7NrerfAllal,salmi ii+,• rojild 40•111" lallr."1417-• 04 . l/ 1 prie! r$ , ' ydgRr �J .. �tpr �r�.-��� i II > tub impr,iis ve.c th ,4. ...ity, Ilr .4yomirepol LIM— - , 4.,.;_ilLip ,-..1,-„he , .. ,-, 4o. ._11 riktl,„ .... .._ 1.-Ail Illielk4.- fi-tig.. ... .7'.kat/ zr .17.1 ,- - _.: tom. A.v,,-- 'SI ER Igo Atiahf • ■ r., ��' � �1 Oki �`i'. ,,, , ..... 0 `Mlles — \ ox.=.„ . n:;5 s Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type • Step 2: Constraints to Development. This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that may limit development. Land 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 3 OF 75 Page 4 affected by these constraints is totally or partially removed from the inventory. Figure 5: Constraints to Development is included below, depicting the land within the City that would be considered constrained based on the methodology in Attachment E. Figure 5: Constraints to Development ` Study Area t.1 ' 1 II o n Lake Oswego City yUvYS4F3 _ 0 Limits �— : ! = Major Roads - JY —= — Greenway Mgrnt. u Overlay District I r MELa`aEF Si s I Slopes 25% d °J FEMA Floodplain "' -• Sensitive Lands Overlay ' Habitat Benefit Areas L Flu wsk a o� (HBA] ' 1'Ir'� '.1°. DOE iw ra 1.--,,-iiaiu. :'� Qr %f pb ', ➢ i i. E. Conserve o ;E. Conservation Areas s'4 n [ Resource Protection yr�Pi i 44`"'> "At' .,,DR,.„,,o vti Areas(RP] 4 li Y J ' C _ pox -31 :-�'• `ti ;� • BcpG L ' 'a *--- isti i1 rY s IF Jul V p Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory Environmental Constraints • Step 3: Development Status. This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. Partially vacant land has an existing structure but is assumed to be available for future infill—for example a single home on a lot that is large enough to accommodate more homes. Figure 6: Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land is included below, depicting the development status of each tax lot in the study area as either "Vacant", "Partially Vacant", or "Developed" based on the methodology in Attachment E. 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 4 OF 75 Page 5 Figure 6:Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land `,,,s r ' 9. 7 ;4,et, tit Study Area t _ .,'4PLlM, •I , - I. 7— 5W STEFF(ENSON Sr, �9ri .` . -Constraints J / 1 9 7 rIr/ 7 �� - 1 i`-r,• 'se. ,:"- T ° r Development Status sg I ( r1 ,ski. �': v A ` 4 ° k :° ," ,. ,F* ,,,o°. ;F.7`':J• 11 Developed VI: I ° I _A Partially Vacant _ Vacant r iV _ , J . ..2.7s,( ,,e, - 4- . ,,,„. j. ._::7,.. -41 lifilk,.,._, i''' `�11 Sw IN,-A feu r 1 � 1PPY�y.Y1 .R r� MG_'y L' •a :4 S fit✓,. vie •` oe G �� FRS ' Va e'' IL '1 0 � } I I tiA • _ ._J 4� i _ o s r j[� �i _ L. ham AlAU ..4�.' , ■ /. f O t — CHILL F:C •1 / r 4S . .5 - Oyu :�, n,l • T: . - 1 f __ `�OBF GUI.' 0 .25 G.5 — ^ — � !� ,t 1 .- Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity. This step removes land for future rights- of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation, then estimates number of units. Table 5:Net Developable Acres of Residential and Mixed Use Land is included below, summarizing the net residential developable acres for both residential and mixed use land in the study area in the City, accounting for employment uses on mixed-use land and assumed right-of-way. Table 5:Net Developable Acres of Residential and Mixed Use Land Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 4,413 951 3,547 345 1,218 MixedUse 493 96 399 15 178 Non-Residential 181 21 160 - - Public/Other 3,491 1,309 2,215 - - Total 8,578 2,377 6,320 360 1,396 The contents of the draft BLI are a work in process—they will be refined with feedback from the HPS Task Force, the Planning Commission, City Council, and other stakeholders. This inventory 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 5 OF 75 Page 6 will inform both the HCA and HNA Report to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. Further analysis into potential redevelopment, the characterization of"partially vacant" land, densities, housing mix, and other attributes of the BLI is expected to occur prior to the release of the final HNA Report—tentatively scheduled for July 2023. Housing Capacity Analysis Staff also worked with the consultant team to produce the draft HCA (Attachment F), which includes research and analysis to outline a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego by the year 2043. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: • Portland State University Population Research Center (current population) • Metro (forecasts of future population) • U.S. Census • Claritas1 • Oregon Employment Department • City of Lake Oswego • Clackamas County • Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS). All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. The analysis includes the following components: • A demographic profile, including population growth, income trends, and poverty statistics. See the summaries below in Figure 2.1: Lake Oswego Demographic Profile and Figure 2.9: Commuting Patterns (Primary Jobs), Lake Oswego. 1 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation.Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors.Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 6 OF 75 Page 7 Figure 2.1: Lake Oswego Demographic Profile POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Pnpulatiianl 35,278 35,619 4% 41,550 13% Househnldsz 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Orrirs-0 15,658 15,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Hnusehald Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3. Avg.Family Sire 2.93 2.83 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Prof.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 553,652 27% $74,600 39% Median f*3($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% Figure 2.9: Commuting Patterns(Primary Jobs), Lake Oswego Metzger vaukie Hasp CAPITOL HILL ID Tryon Creek 5' ' ��?;,Ml�waUkl@ Natural Aretata � NIIlar .i Duntho• rpe ,— 11111111iv ,,,,kg, 11 99E lard d Oswego 2 20,900 ,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere in Lake Oswego work elsewhere ,j. ' E �'jlaRi n's � ....-� ariding DL.lrham ' „itC`1 ' j nt:3gr c�r,ter 90°la 10% L. 12% / 88% `Jennie v MARYLHVRST ,River Grove ` 'ualatin Q Stafford / Legacy Merid..0 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 7 OF 75 Page 8 • Current housing conditions, including housing tenure (rental/ownership), age of housing stock, unit types, and assisted housing. See the summaries below in Figure 3.1: Estimated Share of Units by Property Type, 2023, Figure 3.4: Current Inventory by Unit Type, by Share, and Figure 3.5:Age of Units for Owners and Renters (Lake Oswego). Figure 3.1:Estimated Share of Units by Property Type, 2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 54-Units Mlanuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Figure 3.4: Current Inventory by Unit Type, by Share Number of Bedrooms 5 or rr,nre 1% �'�r7l�r 11f8 Owner 4 bedrooms 5 3 bedrooms 19 2 bedrooms Aill111111143% 14% 1 bedroom 27% MI 29 Studio 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 8 OF 75 Page 9 Figure 3.5:Age of Units for Owners and Renters(Lake Oswego) 30% 2h% 0 Owner .25% 23% 23% Renter 20% 20%.= 0 20% Ili% IP 15% i. 10% 59d 5% 5sii, 96 5% II 1 3 396 d 4 05 oy `c C. Year Housing Unit Built ',' • An assessment of current housing demand, based on population characteristics and the availability of housing units. See the summaries below in Figure 4.1: Current Lake Oswego Housing Profile (2023) and Figure 4.2: Estimate of Current Housing Demand in Lake Oswego (2023). Figure 4.1: Current Lake Oswego Housing Profile (2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS (2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center -estimated group housing population: 329 lO.8%of Total) US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 lTotal-Group) Avg. HHSize: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Fop/HHSize) Total Housing Units: 18,345 lOccupied+Vacantl Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 l=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% lVacantunits/Total unftsl 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 9 OF 75 Page 10 Figure 4.2:Estimate of Current Housing Demand in Lake Oswego (2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than $15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% 5250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% 5440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% 5510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range %of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 575,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% 52200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% 52800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% 53400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 • An assessment of future housing need, based on forecasted population growth and a variety of other anticipated demographic and housing market trends. See the summaries below in Figure 5.1: Future Housing Profile (2043), Lake Oswego, and Figure 5.2: Projected Occupied Future Housing Demand(2043), Lake Oswego. 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 10 OF 75 Page 11 Figure 5.1: Future Housing Profile(2043), Lake Oswego PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS (2023- 2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast 2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1,7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop,/2043 hauseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0N Stabilized vacancy assumption After receiving feedback on the BLI and HCA, the next step for the project team will be to conduct an analysis that compares the amount and type of land available for future residential uses with the amount and types of housing units needed by the City of Lake Oswego for the final HNA Report. The findings of this comparison will form the basis of further work about the policies, programs, and actions that the City can consider to address its current and future housing needs through the HPS. 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 11 OF 75 Page 12 Figure 5.2:Projected Occupied Future Housing Demand(2043), Lake Oswego Ownership if of Price Range Households Income Range %of Total Cumulative $0k-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% ; Extremely <30% MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% Income 'S0 MFI $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80% MFI $350k-$4431( 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental it of Rent Level Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $0 -$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6i, Extremely <30% MFI $400 -$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% Low Income $700-5900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50% MFI $900 -$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% Income $1300 -$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80% MFI $1800 -$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200 -$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500 -$2803 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88,7% $3400 + 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 of All. 30.3% 19,298 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT UPDATE The following events have occurred in the time since the Commission's last work session related to this project on January 23: • On February 21, a study session was held at City Council that included a presentation from staff and project consultants at MIG outlining the requirements of HB 2003 as related to updating the City's HNA and developing an HPS; • On March 20, the draft BLI and HCA documents were distributed to City-recognized Neighborhood Associations, City Boards and Commissions, and interested members of the public for their input and review; and 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 12 OF 75 Page 13 • On March 24, the HPS Task Force held their second meeting to review and provide input on the initial drafts of the BLI and HCA documents. Other upcoming public engagement opportunities related to the draft BLI and HCA include a Community Forum scheduled for April 6, and another study session at City Council on April 18. The final HNA Report, which will include the BLI and HCA as components, is tentatively scheduled to be considered by the Planning Commission at a public hearing on July 24, and by the City Council at a subsequent public hearing on September 5, 2023. ATTACHMENTS A. City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis, 03/19/2013 (click here, or use link below) B. Adopted Resolution 22-30, 10/04/2022 C. Project Scope of Work, 10/17/2022 D. Draft Public Involvement Plan, 01/10/2023 E. Draft Lake Oswego Residential Buildable Lands Inventory, 03/17/2023 F. Draft Lake Oswego Housing Capacity Analysis, 03/20/2023 To view these documents and other documents in the Public Records Folder, visit the Planning Project webpage: https://www.ci.oswego.or.us/planning/pp-22-0005-housing-needs-and-production-strategies 503.635.0290 380 A Avenue PO Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.ci.oswego.or.us LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 13 OF 75 RESOLUTION 22-30 A RESOLUTION OF THE LAKE OSWEGO CITY COUNCIL CREATING AN AD HOC HOUSING PRODUCTION STRATEGY TASK FORCE,AND OF THE COUNCIL MEMBERS APPROVING THE MAYOR'S APPOINTMENTS TO THE AD HOC HOUSING PRODUCTION STRATEGY TASK FORCE WHEREAS, a goal of the Lake Oswego City Council is to "Conserve the community's quality of life by planning for change and growth"; and WHEREAS, a City Council initiative is to "Complete work on key housing initiatives, including HB 2001 code adoption, HB 2003 compliance, decision-making on a possible project on the Boones Ferry Road Staging area, and support for other non-profit led housing projects"; and WHEREAS, the City Council desires to create an Ad Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force (the "Task Force") consisting of persons interested in helping the City Council and Planning Commission identify critical housing needs and recommend strategies to address them in order to reach compliance with House Bill 2003; and WHEREAS, the Mayor has proposed appointing those listed on Attachment 1 to this Resolution as members of the Task Force, and as provided in the Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 19, the Mayor shall appoint, with the approval the Councilors, the members of all City committees, including task forces; BE IT RESOLVED by the Lake Oswego City Council that: Section 1. As authorized by LOC 12.50.005 and 12.50.010, there is hereby created an Ad Hoc Housing Production Strategy Task Force. Section 2. The term of the Task Force will be from the date of this resolution through June 30, 2024, unless concluded earlier or extended by a resolution of the City Council. Section 3. The Task Force is charged with making recommendations to the City Council and Planning Commission consistent with the following objectives: • Conserve the community's quality of life by planning for change and growth; • Ensure compliance with HB 2003 (House Bill 2003-Housing Needs and Production); • Provide guidance to staff and the Planning Commission as the City identifies current and future housing needs and develops strategies to address them; • Follow a schedule that allows the Planning Commission to consider Comprehensive Plan amendments to update the City's Housing Needs Analysis by September 2023, so that the City Council may adopt an HB 2003-compliant Housing Needs Analysis no later than December 2023; • Follow a schedule that will allow the Planning Commission to consider housing production strategy alternatives by February 2024, so that the City Council may adopt HB 2003-compliant Comprehensive Plan amendments and take other action, as needed, to develop a Housing Production Strategy and Implementation Plan within one-year of Resolution 22-30 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 1 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 14 OF 75 the adoption of the updated Housing Needs Analysis. Section 4. The Task Force shall recommend outreach strategies, Comprehensive Plan amendments, and other actions to update the City's Housing Needs Analysis and develop a Housing Production Strategy and Implementation Plan, consistent with the above objectives. The Committee's work shall be accomplished in regular meetings from October 2022 through June 2024. Section 5. At its first meeting, the Task Force shall elect a Chair and Vice Chair, as provided in LOC 12.50.025. The Committee shall follow all provisions of LOC Article 12.50 that apply to ad hoc committees, except that, instead of requiring a simple majority of the members present and eligible to vote to decide any question [LOC 12.50.030(2)), a vote by two-thirds of the members present and eligible to vote will be required to decide any question. Section 6. The Task Force shall comply with all requirements of Oregon Public Meetings Law, ORS 192.610 et seq. Section 7. Any member who is absent for two consecutive meetings of the Task Force is automatically removed from the Committee and new members will not be appointed to fill their positions. Section 8. The Councilors hereby approve the Mayor's appointment of the persons identified on Exhibit A to the Task Force (the Mayor's vote on this Resolution shall not deemed to apply to this Section). Section 9. This Resolution shall be effective immediately upon its adoption by the City Council. // // [Signatures on Next Page] Resolution 22-30 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 2 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 15 OF 75 Adopted by Mayor (as to Sections 1-7 and 9), and by City Councilors at the meeting of the Lake Oswego City Council held on the 4th day of October, 2022. AYES: Mayor Buck, Nguyen,Verdick, Rapf, Manz, Mboup, Wendland NOES: None EXCUSED: None ABSTAIN: None \K.) Joseph M. Buck, Mayor ATTEST: Kari Linder, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Evan Boone, City Attorney Pro Tem Resolution 22-30 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 3 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 16 OF 75 EXHIBIT A TO RESULUTION 22-30 The persons appointed to the Housing Production Strategy Task Force are as follows: 1. City Council Liaison (non-voting): Mayor Joseph M. Buck 2. Planning Commission Liaison (non-voting): Phillip Stewart 3. 50+Advisory Board Representative: Douglas Corder 4. Transportation Advisory Board Representative: Kasey Adler 5. Development Review Commission Representative: Bruce Poinsette 6. At-large Member—Housing producer: Sarah Walker 7. At-large Member—Housing producer: David Tangvald 8. At-large Member—Housing producer: Phil Bertrand 9. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Kyrsten Baumgart 10. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Yoko Kinoshita 11. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Betty Jung 12. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Cara Kao-Young 13. At-large Member— Housing consumer: Rebecca Lane 14. At-large Member—Housing consumer:John E. Pauley 15. At-large Member—Housing consumer: Rosalie Nowalk 16. At-large Member— Housing consumer: Pat Ginn 17. At-large Member— Housing consumer: Diana Howell 18. At-large Member— Housing consumer:John Turchi PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 4 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 17 OF 75 Task 1—Project Kickoff City staff will work with the selected Consultant to familiarize them with the proposed project and local conditions, providing relevant documents, maps, and history related to the project.The Consultant will work with City Staff to develop and refine a schedule based upon a mutual understanding of project goals and objectives, and will coordinate with City staff to lead a Kickoff Meeting with the HPS Task Force. Subtasks: 1.1 Research and information gathering.The City shall provide the Consultant with relevant background information and documents, maps, and plans, including, but not limited to: • City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive PlanLincluding 2013 Housing Needs Analysis and Economic Opportunities Analysis • Planning permit application data for last 5 years • Residential zone change data for last 5 years • Boones Ferry Road Affordable Housing Initiative—Values Summary (2022) • Lake Oswego Neighborhood Character Report (2021) • Lake Oswego Middle Housing Opportunities Report (2021) • Summary of SB 4006 (2018) Public Meeting on Rent Burden (2019) • Geographic Information Systems data • Lake Oswego Community Development Code (LOC Ch. 50) [Ordinances can be found under the Code's table of contents, "Ordinance Table",following Chapter 60. Click on the PDF icon.] The Consultant shall obtain necessary background information and documents from relevant agencies, including the most recent versions of, but not limited to: • Applicable Metro Regional Population and Employment Range Forecasts • Most recent Metro Urban Growth Management Report • Housing affordability indices, including relevant data from the Housing Authority of Clackamas County and Oregon Department of Housing and Community Services 1.2 Refine project schedule. The Consultant shall work with City staff to confirm the objectives of the project and refine a proposed project schedule. 1.3 Develop plan for public involvement:The selected Consultant will develop a Public Involvement Plan that focuses on how to productively engage housing consumers within the City through methods such as public events, interviews,focus groups, surveys, or other similar efforts. Public engagement shall prioritize underrepresented communities, including renters; low-income households; seniors; people with disabilities; persons of color; immigrant or refugee communities;formerly or currently homeless people; and individuals with limited English proficiency. City staff will provide the selected Consultant with a list of groups and organizations that need to be engaged through the course of the project. Public engagement efforts shall build upon the City's previous housing-related outreach related to House Bill 2001 and affordable housing, and Page 1 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 1 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 18 OF 75 should be coordinated with the event(s) required under HB 4006 for severely rent burdened communities. Stakeholders also include those who are currently developing affordable housing in Lake Oswego, including the Mercy Housing Northwest (Marylhurst Commons) and Habitat for Humanity(West Lake Grove townhomes), and others who are assisting the City and Metro in planning for development of affordable housing. See the Boones Ferry Road Affordable Housing Initiative. 1.3 Create outreach materials. The selected Consultant will create graphic and written materials to help educate the community about the goals and objectives of the project, including a description of the basic elements of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) and Housing Production Strategy(HPS), and how this planning effort could help improve the availability of needed housing within the community. The City will host a project webpage, with the Consultant being responsible for producing informational materials in a format suitable for use as both website content and handouts. 1.4 Establish Housing Production Strategy Task Force. The City will recruit and appoint members of a Housing Production Strategy Task Force (HPS Task Force) in order to provide guidance throughout the course of the project. 1.5 Host kickoff meeting. Consultant will facilitate HPS Task Force Meeting No. 1 to provide an overview of the project, solicit feedback on the draft public engagement plan, discuss and confirm desired outcomes, and review the project schedule. City staff will prepare minutes for all task force meetings, and the selected Consultant will be responsible for drafting summaries of surveys,focus group discussions, and other engagement opportunities. Task 1 Meetings: • PMT kickoff meeting • HPS Task Force kickoff meeting Task 1 Consultant Work Products: • Project schedule • Public Involvement Plan • Summary of major tasks, including technical memorandums and outreach events • Presentation and other materials for HPS Task Force meeting Task 2—Draft Housing Needs Analysis Subtasks: 2.1 Draft Housing Needs Projection. The Consultant will prepare a draft housing needs projection consistent with OAR Chapter 660, divisions 7 and 8.The housing needs projection will be used to determine the City's residential land need in Task 2.3 and is a baseline set of data that the Consultant will build upon to contextualize current and future housing needs for the Housing Production Strategy (HPS), considering population and market trends. Analysis of contextualized housing needs will include: • Socio-economic and demographic trends of a jurisdiction's population, disaggregated by race to the extent possible with available data; Page 2 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 2 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 19 OF 75 • Market conditions affecting the provision of needed housing, including demand for seasonal housing, as applicable; • Existing and expected barriers to the development of needed housing; • Housing need for those experiencing homelessness, using the best available data; • Percentage of Rent-Burdened Households; • Household income; • Household size; • Housing by Tenure (owner vs renter); • Percentage of housing stock that is market rate vs. subsidized; and • Units that are in the development pipeline by housing type and affordability if subsidized. The Consultant will develop a draft of the housing needs projection and a framework outlining the socio-economic and demographic data.The analysis will be vetted with, and draw upon, information gathered through engagement with housing consumers, including underrepresented communities, before being presented at HPS Task Force Meeting No. 2.The Consultant will address HPS Task Force comments and draft a Contextualized Housing Needs Memorandum, which will later become a section of the HPS. The City will review and provide feedback to the Consultant on the draft work products, assist with coordinating and facilitating outreach and engagement, and provide staff support for the HPS Task Force, including preparation of meeting notices, agendas, and minutes for HPS Task Force Meetings Nos. 2 and 3. The Consultant will coordinate all meeting materials, including presentations with the City's project manager and facilitate the meetings.The Consultant should be prepared to present multiple deliverables at each meeting in order to keep the project on schedule. 2.2 Draft Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI):The selected Consultant will prepare a draft inventory of the supply of buildable lands and a determination of the actual density/mix of housing consistent with OAR Chapter 660, Division 8.The draft report shall include map(s) showing vacant, partially developed and redevelopable lands where needed housing is allowed; and an inventory report describing the methodology. The development of the BLI shall be a combined effort between the Consultant and the City with input from the HPS Task Force. It is envisioned that the Consultant will provide technical and other recommendations to refine the draft BLI and ensure that it is consistent with DLCD's Workbook. The City shall provide the GIS resources and staffing to refine the inventory. The City is the lead for coordination with Metro,the County, and DLCD,with the Consultant providing support and participating in meetings with the agencies as needed. The City will schedule and provide notice and an agenda for HPS Task Force Meeting No. 4 to review the draft BLI.The Consultant will coordinate with City on all materials, including the presentation with the City's project manager and facilitate the meeting. 2.3 Draft Residential Land Needs Analysis(RLNA). The Consultant shall prepare a Residential Land Needs Analysis that incorporates local, regional, and state housing and income data and is consistent with and builds upon the methodology described in DLCD's Planning for Residential Growth: A Workbook for Oregon's Urban Areas.The RLNA shall project housing units needed by housing type and density over the 20-year planning period, including housing affordable to those earning less than the area median income. Page 3 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 3 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 20 OF 75 The RLNA shall include but not be limited to the following: a. Population Projection/ Base Case Housing Unit Projection—Estimate the additional housing units (type and density) required for a 20-year period. Using a 20-year projection to 2030,the Consultant shall determine a "base case" housing units needs by using the most up-to-date and available information from the US Census, Portland State University Center for Population Research and Census, Metro, and/or other reliable sources. b. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis—Identify relevant economic and household trends that relate to the demand for different types of housing.The Consultant shall rely on the most up-to-date and available information from the US Census, Portland State University Center for Population Research and Census, Metro, and/or other reliable sources to examine historical demographic and economic trends at the local, county, and statewide level. c. Identify Affordable Housing Types and Allocations—Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the projected households based on household income. d. Identify Needed Densities by Plan Designation/Zoning District—Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type. 2.4 Prepare Final HNA Report. Following review by staff and revisions as needed,the consultant will prepare a final draft of the Housing Needs Analysis Report and present it to the HPS Task Force, Planning Commission, and City Council.The consultant will summarize HPS Task Force comments on the draft and make any minor updates to the draft following Task Force review. Following public review and comment,the consultant will produce a final version of the HNA Report.The Final HNA Report will contain an Executive Summary and narrative,tables, and maps describing the city's existing housing stock, projected housing needs, and other data, conclusions, and recommendations from the preceding tasks. The Consultant will present the Final HNA report at one public workshop or open house to solicit input from the public.The consultant will coordinate all meeting materials and the presentation with City staff. Task 2 Meetings: • PMT Meetings (5 total) • HPS Task Force Meetings (3 total) • Public Workshop or Open House Task 2 Consultant Work Products: • Draft and Final Housing Needs Analysis Report, including: o Executive Summary o Housing Needs Projection; o Residential Buildable Lands Inventory; o Residential Needs Analysis;and Page 4 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 4 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 21 OF 75 o Conclusions and Recommendations. • Presentation and other materials for all meetings Task 3:Housing Production Strategy 3.1 Evaluate existing housing strategies. The consultant will review the policies and other measures already adopted by the City for their effectiveness in promoting the development of needed housing.The City will identify and provide all available information about existing relevant measures.The consultant will also interview key City staff and up to eight(8) housing producers and/or service providers to seek input on existing policies and programs, and potential new strategies for housing.This input will be used to identify strategy alternatives to address the most housing and residential land needs as determined in previous tasks. 3.2 Outline housing strategy alternatives, which shall be summarized in a Housing Strategy Alternatives Memo. The Consultant shall draft a Housing Strategy Alternatives Memo addressing any changes to the City's comprehensive plan, public facility master plans, land use regulations,fees, and other policies and programs, as applicable,that would be most effective in supporting the production of needed housing. For example,the Memo might identify strategies for prioritizing infrastructure investments, amendments to zoning and development standards, and new incentives (regulatory or financial)to encourage the production of needed housing, considering the results of previous tasks. The Consultant will present the Memo to the HPS Task Force in two meetings in order to introduce the housing strategy alternatives and receive input.The consultant will coordinate with the City on all meeting materials and presentations with City staff, and facilitate the HPS Task Force meetings. 3.3 Refine housing strategy recommendations. The consultant will work with City staff and the HPS Task Force to refine the list of alternative housing strategy options developed in Task 3.2 in an Initial Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo, pursuant to direction from the Planning Commission and City Council. The Consultant shall draft a Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo with a refined list of strategies based on input from Task 3.2.The Consultant will also attend and present this Memo at 2 HPS Task Force meetings for review and input in order to develop a preferred list of strategies for inclusion in the HPS. Recommended strategies will be presented to the Planning Commission and City Council for further direction. The City will schedule and provide notice and an agenda for each HPS Task Force meeting.The consultant will be expected to coordinate all meeting and presentation materials with City staff, and facilitate the meetings.The HPS Task Force may review more than one strategy option at each meeting.The Consultant shall provide a brief paper, case study, or similar written description illustrating each strategy, as generally outlined below. For the strategies that are recommended for inclusion in the City's HPS,the consultant will produce the following for each strategy within the Initial Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo, based on the consultant's evaluation, input from staff, and feedback gathered through outreach and engagement: Page 5 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 5 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 22 OF 75 • A description of the strategy; • Identified housing need being fulfilled and analysis of the income and demographic populations that will receive benefit and/or burden from the strategy, including low- income communities, communities of color, and other communities that have been discriminated against, according to fair housing laws; • Approximate magnitude of impact, including (where possible/applicable) an estimate of the number of housing units that may be created, and the time frame over which the strategy is expected to impact needed housing; • Timeline for adoption and implementation; • Actions necessary for the local government and other stakeholders to take in order to implement the strategy; • Potential cost and funding source options; • Feasibility of the strategy based on a general assessment of opportunities and constraints. 3.4 Draft Housing Production Strategy(HPS) Report. The consultant will prepare a first draft of a Housing Production Strategy Report for City review and feedback.The consultant's analysis will be informed by the recommendations contained in the HNA, and shall be developed in consultation with the HPS Task Force,the Planning Commission, and the City Council before being synthesized into a draft HPS. The HPS Report is to incorporate the results of Tasks 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3, including an explanation of how the City's existing measures and final proposed strategies help to achieve fair and equitable housing outcomes, affirmatively further fair housing, and overcome discriminatory housing practices and racial segregation. HPS Report shall include: 1. A qualitative assessment of how the strategies collectively address the contextualized housing needs identified in the HNA and,taken collectively,will increase housing options for population groups experiencing a current or projected disproportionate housing need, including: o Existing City policies, codes, and programs; o Proposed actions; 2. An explanation for any identified needs not otherwise addressed above; and 3. An outline the City's plan for monitoring progress on the housing production strategies. 3.5 Finalize the HPS for adoption as an appendix to the Comprehensive Plan. Following review by staff and revisions, as needed,the consultant will produce a public review draft of the Final HPS Report for review and comment by the HPS Task Force, Planning Commission, City Council, and other interested parties.The consultant will summarize the HPS Task Force comments on the draft and make any minor updates to the draft as required. Following public review and comment,the consultant will produce a final version of the HPS Report. Page 6 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 6 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 23 OF 75 The City will host one public open house or similar meeting to present and receive feedback on the key strategies outlined in the draft HPS.The consultant will assist staff with the presentation. Task 3 Meetings: • PMT Meetings (4 total) • HPS Task Force Meetings (2 total) • Public Workshop or Open House Task 3 Work Products: • Housing Strategy Alternatives Memo • Initial Housing Strategy Recommendations Memo • Draft and Final Housing Production Strategy Report • Presentation and other materials for public workshop or open house event Page 7 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT C/PAGE 7 OF 7 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 24 OF 75 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis 4.64 £_ OPec°� Public Involvement Plan DRAFT — January 2023 Introduction The City of Lake Oswego is updating its Housing Needs Analysis to reflect current conditions in the City and projected future needs.This Public Involvement Plan describes the roles of City staff and the consultant team in engagement efforts, with the intent of making efficient use of consultant time while helping the City deepen its relationships with the community it serves. These engagement efforts will prioritize underrepresented communities within the city, including (as applicable to Lake Oswego) Black, Indigenous and People of Color; renters; low-income households; immigrant or refugee community members;veterans; people with disabilities; seniors; agricultural workers; and people currently experiencing homelessness or who formerly experienced homelessness. The engagement will be coordinated with other events, including those required under 2018's House Bill 4006.1 This document provides a working list of the public involvement activities proposed as part of the Lake Oswego Housing Needs Assessment (HNA). It is intended as a living document and may be updated as the project progresses. Project Schedule A detailed project schedule is being developed. Initial thinking about milestones as they relate to public involvement are shown below.They are generally organized into two phases. Phase 1: Buildable Land and Housing Need—October 2022 to June 2023 • Task 1. Project Kickoff: October 2022—December 2022 • Task 2. Draft Housing Needs Analysis: November 2022—March 2023 • Task 3. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory: November 2022—March 2023 • Task 4. Residential Land Needs Analysis: March—May 2023 • Task 5. Final Housing Needs Analysis Report: May—July 2023 Phase 2: Housing Strategies—June 2023 to March 2024 • Task 6. Housing Strategies Alternatives:July—November 2023 • Task 7. Housing Strategies Recommendations: November 2023—January 2024 • Task 8. Housing Production Strategies Report:January—March 2024 Desired Project Outcomes The public engagement as part of this effort is intended to: 1 Housing Production Reporting https://www.oregon.gov/Icd/UP/Pages/Reporting.aspx Page 1 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 1 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 25 OF 75 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis 04 £_ 0 r c ..oaFco� • Inform the public about City activities • Involve stakeholders by asking relevant questions and telling the public how their answers influenced the project. • Empower participants to help shape City policy on important topics. Engagement Methods The following methods are proposed to engage the community during this process. Housing Production Strategy Task Force (HPS Task Force) The City will convene a Housing Production Strategy Task Force to guide this project. • Membership.The HPS Task Force will include individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds, identities, income ranges, and professions.The goal of convening such a body is to hear a wide range of opinions and ideas and develop recommendations that represent them. • Meetings.The HPS Task Force will meet a total of 5 times—three times on items related to the Draft Housing Needs Analysis Report (Task 2) and two times on items related to the Housing Production Strategy Report (Task 3). Meetings may be in person or virtual, hybrid, or some combination thereof. • Role.The role of the HPS Task Force will be to guide the process by reviewing draft materials, providing feedback related to their personal or professional experience and opinions, and informing the broader public about this process through their individual networks. At their December 2022 meeting,the HPS Task Force elected a chair and vice chair and adopted a set of bylaws.This information can be found on the City's website. Public Workshops/Open Houses Two online workshops or open houses will be held as part of this effort, one with a focus on items related to the Draft Housing Needs Analysis Report (Task 2) and one focused on items related to the Housing Production Strategy Report (Task 3). Meeting Topics • Task 2 Workshop/Open House.This open house will address Buildable Lands Inventory, Housing Needs Projection, and resulting analysis.These elements of the Housing Needs Analysis provide a picture of the City's current land base, existing and future demographics, and a projection of needed housing.The broader public will be invited to comment on these technical materials, as well as describe what they think the community's priorities on housing overall should be.This input will inform the priorities and strategies that come as part of the following task. • Task 3 Workshop/Open House.This open house will present a draft set of recommended Housing Production Strategies which the City can undertake to meet housing needs and the priority,timing, costs, and implementation thereof. Meeting Logistics • Meetings are expected to take the form of online surveys that summarize material and guide participants through a set of questions. An in-person component where this material is presented on poster boards,with a printed-out version of the survey also could be an alternative option. Page 2 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 2 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 26 OF 75 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis �4 £r V C 0„.0„, Stakeholder Interviews Additional stakeholder interviews with community members and housing partners may be conducted to supplement the expertise and experience of the Housing Task Force. Project Website The City of Lake Oswego will host a website that describes the project and lets the public access draft documents as they are available.The website will provide a link to a comment form and/or direct email contact for the project. Consultant will provide information for the website. Additional Outreach Materials Additional engagement efforts may include: • Preparation of materials such as "fact sheets" or other short documents that highlight housing issues, challenges, and potential solutions • Presentation materials for community group or stakeholder meetings • Brief online surveys conducted as part of other efforts or on their own. We expect that these materials will incorporate infographics and other illustrations wherever possible to convey information quickly and intuitively and provide visual examples of housing conditions and successful strategies in Lake Oswego and other similar communities. Key Messages These key messages summarize the what,who, when, where, why, and how of the process, and constitute the basic talking points when communicating with the public about the project.The entries below are a first draft for early phases of the process—they will change and expand as the project evolves. • What:The City of Lake Oswego is preparing a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) and Housing Production Strategy (HPS).This work will describe current housing conditions and plan for how to address future housing needs, including specific actions that the City and its partners can take to increase the production of needed housing. • Who:All residents of the City are encouraged to participate in this planning process and will have many opportunities to provide input, including at Housing Task Force meetings, online community open houses, and via the City's website, by phone, or email. Regional housing partners will also be included in the creation of this plan. • When:This effort began in late 2022 and will conclude in early 2024. • Where:This effort specifically addresses the land inside the City of Lake Oswego. • Why: Cities in Oregon are required to plan for the housing needs of all community members, and to identify specific actions to ensure that needed housing is produced. • How:This process will be guided by a Housing Task Force, with a diverse membership representing the Lake Oswego community. It will include an analysis of residential land in the City, a projection of needed housing, and an evaluation of strategies that the City can use to meet its current and future housing needs. Page 3 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 3 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 27 OF 75 City of Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis .4 ,_ r o o OO' Key Stakeholders The City has identified the following stakeholders: Builders Advisory Group.This is a group of housing industry stakeholders that the City of Lake Oswego has reached out to for other projects.These are subject matter experts with diverse opinions and roles in the world of housing; they will be involved on technical matters. Affordable Housing Stakeholders.This group was part of recent affordable housing outreach done by the City. They represent affordable housing advocates,those seeking affordable housing, and neighbors of affordable housing developments. Neighborhood Associations. Lake Oswego has several official Neighborhood Associations. Members of these associations will be invited to participate, and where possible brief presentations can be made to these organizations to introduce the project and get input. 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Ceara* /� • i i WEST''-,l g111 •- No Si M,O0 R1pG{ 4 -1...--4. ::. rrrnoa ry . .r7 i Page 4 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT D/PAGE 4 OF 4 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 28 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY DRAFT Methodology and Initial Results I March 17, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA)for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1:Study Area and Land Classification.This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development.This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation,then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits and unannexed areas with City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan designations. 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGR Appendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 1 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 1 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 29 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Figure 1.Study Area Map s T.,.,..,"4_ 1- W STEPHENSON ST '9 ' � 1 D L 1" �PRpKW ESF�¢R�� G' y,, ssFq d r a� A o rr - MELROSE ST 7 •OBI • .:, C°U,yrRr G o !1 y�z` 49 CUR RD 1 C1 ITl 5 n, KEUSE WAY •d� �y A pia "' , • r- MEADOWS R❑ v Q�. 2 I 1 SW B DNITA RD' Lr-` �!`'y C-0C�� QG m0 �,OiiNTgrniB4VD // ? ]! +may z zFlf \e'� ;1 c cr '2 re z z o { `� 4P gtV 6 vE. . `y+c .! s C--.1 �4 ��E� ��{ P i. ,3v .`- 5410RE elf 0°1 Al- k ffk P541F-'511 1‘, '. 1 q GREENTREE�� e ,�p� LFk 5 u �-u x O�C� a�EQ,LODkpR 5-BERGIRO e�� C - AY rr,, z o : 7 ni 4 x FD y�c -Po lP FO.r• ��bS. , e4, AiCHILDS RD 1,P 1 Miles (DR EGt'`: 0 0.25 0.5 1 Study Area n Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other. Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 2 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 2 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 30 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones R-15 To provide lands for single-family residential development with Residential Low R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential R 5 development with densities ranging from seven to eight dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities R-DD Zone and supports the economic feasibility of new construction and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved and integrated with new development. Residential The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use Medium Density policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, and to continue established alley uses and functions such as R-6 access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. Residential High R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Density R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 3 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 3 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 31 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the Highway needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Commercial(HC) retail uses which require access to a market area larger than the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity.Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake Mixed Use WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 4 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 4 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 32 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area. Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; Hi. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 5 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 5 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 33 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations , 224 Com a e College--Syl,:,.. Trycn Creek ' State Natural \ \ • SE fat ' I'of �" OM PNA Milwaukie L L#a e '..__I. a 1.101 Heights Tigard AI °°� 4 R-io J_� F� i RC R-5 R-ao All ►, 6 R-5 [llir Oak Grove P ft R,r, ire I'J` �� 1 PNA a CEC I MC CRdO r talk 'I wr til "' Bonita �' SW Bonita Rd f. NriI-;- ' • • ,n ��a r 1111121h ' Li.. SW Durham Rd e I R-5o J R-7-5,r� P. --7 ,R_5 R-7 5 PI rf PF Concord rt P iy R-7.5 1 I' Trolley Trail Cook Park Durham I, Rao • PP PNA Trolley '.I F D. 4+�r ll..l - PNA P R i5 n r + Jer J R-'S Esrl NASA,NSA,1f5G5,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State ParkS,State of Oregon GEO,Eorl,HERE, Tualatin P NA'f� Riverg rove �- Gamin,SafeGraph,GgnT¢nhnelagies,lnc.METI/NASA.VSGS,bureau of Land Management,EPA,MPS, Mary 5.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts L....rla Q lake 095egz NC _PF -J R.6 LAYER I OHM O R-7.5 ▪CI IP F:R•C O R•go ▪CIJOC IJ me I]R•10 =R-W MI CR&D O NC f0 R-15 O WLG OC {M EC -NCfR-0 M 13-2 i=l AILS R-2.5 MI ECJR-0 O DC O R-3 O WLGRNu 0 0.25 0.5 1 O 64 000/R-3 0 AS Miles DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 6 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 6 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 34 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations Portland 224 r,-_:.yL, ,Portland V College-Sylva Tryon[reek -�� Srate Natural I DPOI .� l , 0 b. Ng iitirniiratem tat r r� t44 '-L �� PNA _ MilwaukleeR, + .„..� Heights 5 'Ie Tigard +� oalrm � Olt?. lyr I �� r' � s�i' R5 c • 1 I„� R-6 Pr. Oak Grave • T L illite4 - ,�OCIR-3 MA SP Ras Pr. Bonita . ,'�R&U'• r Rio R i s �r `•4 Bonita Rdoaf N� l R. 5 ,,,.. ...,_ ...... , a: �d ..,,,,,., .,. , . _,.-..1„„r ..; L 46 <Ai PNA• I' SW Durham Rd ii l R-io R-7 5 # Concord le ' / Durham IIi • -.- R•�5 ^ Trio l ey Trail R F Pf� 1. I11ln -- i� R w 11101 JI L , .� Jer -' Esri,NASA,NGA,USGS,FEW,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO.Esri,HERE, TUdlatin —PNA V Rive rg rove __ pa min,SafeGraph,Giaiechnolagie S.Inc.MEiVNASA USES,bureau of land Management,EPA,NIPS, k'i�+ USOA c nary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 Lake Oswego =HE 0 PHA =R•7.5 LAYER El IP =I R-0 !R-W CI El MC E]R-Id ®SP CR✓L) 1 I Nc El R-15 O WLG OC =EC I=NCIR-o l R-2 0 WLG R-2.5 E'EC/R-D l SC 0 R-3 l WLG EMU FMU I=MR-1 El R-5 =I mall other sines, 0 0.25 0.5 J C GC El PF E]R-6 M Iles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows.This land is not included in the inventory. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 7 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 7 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 35 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for "Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County, State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University,which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW Parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 8 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 8 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 36 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification Gh__ r.= i; _ Study Area ~ ,�,, +,`J , . , Lake Oswego City �u.kr�� i.� 41 , - - _ ter Limits . ,grit-t- w. ' ' '- . , i c 1 L Land Type L[llr'dc-iYAl�� Z may,'-: - - Residential r,rrA .fF /j1 •Maori �-•. Mixed Use ` - ,'._ �► ` � ``unvi' I„ Public/Other i , ,as Ain V � � gUp,il�'�` r' 0� Non Residential 1 -; t P t �� ■ I�.L/�6ry4N n� q .1,g, *IP. ,4,40.0i, :... igiii__.,.,.. . ........, ....,,,,,,- , ..:_,....... .„,_ _,....• .„„ iiii....,....,.„, . _ , ... „........- ,.... p.____:-,..„-- ,_ : „5„.. ._,,.._ .0._ . 4,•• ill rtf elm ti_E +C.11 111 t„ ., _,4.--0---rs irfiji rr-Oe-11111, sinikilLF...to./0 Ailif-Aati. 'N • lirlh=r JP" 41/0"2/M: L. — v- 1 -- -ear am 410111weramr= 1 iur'4101111 • , VI I -Fri op"411---1 Air: t P.: IT.--rv, ,11 lie _ _ 11111,1.1,111 1(16\ , _ISI ,..41,r , .., , , _,,,„...„,,,,,,,,4%,,,,, ,..„ ,...., _u„.... ‘, ''C 1 tie I I '/,_, ..„7,,,,,,,,,,,,,, _i odft of, fos IA h,As prOY. - ,j76ii, ,� o I I 1 IIMIi.i I O GON Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type 0 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 9 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 9 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 37 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies.Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A,AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated, while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts, which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 10 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 10 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 38 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development s k��Study Area ���-5= SW Si EPHFNSON ti7 ,,,..y J y P Po ';_ Lake Oswego City {F "fPKW . + NFS FEP �_ F, Limits r �Ro.fir'`� �.r-�,v% �r � o Major Roads r -�;, Yz. luil � Taxlots hi ,` r p_.. ,Fs Greenway Mgmt. r i`6 •`, .. Overlay District r^ MELIioSE Sr .. r fl u Slopes>25% IJ,..,�I f FEMA Flood lain h0 -:COVN7gY CCUB RDo �1.� II CI r _ Floodplain �PQ+� ; �s Sensitive Lands Overlay 9 1(RUSF WAVE ,04..�' '`f _ _ t Habitat Benefit Areas `g:�(TM�E�ADOw:RRp e J O?l/ ..'l *M.• 4 aVF { - (HBA) r I �—, 17 ,A P$ , 0�l r /' 1I`()UN741/y R!' • i SW 00INIIT,A RDv „, Qp l J • �\_ VD — r Resource > i W �L Y!-L- 'L''--ol, 1 Conservation Areas o (4' .,,.` (RC) ti I� '� — U c N P\�I> N` Resource Protection ,n t1 JP tP 'Ev\F yNORf'g�VD L , el, \ Areas(RP) i.Ar,, �y��''y—Y[ p` S --. r O GRFFNIREE PJ • .p 04 9[iQ-- f. R9OO _P O � y 4.. 'V y r O`,��DOKa �LS tlF RG15'RP A Wayill I('�, ��_ c t r,---�E rr `uS,h r�OS`� 4A E 0J4^ J 0 (I!, D.7 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints Prepared by p H fa The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 5,889.2 1,307.0 4,582.2 Mixed Use 615.2 120.2 495.0 Non-Residential 212.2 8.4 203.8 Publicly Owned/Other 1,699.0 906.2 792.8 Total 8,415.6 2,341.5 6,090.4 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 11 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 11 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 39 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces. • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information. • Review of recent aerial imagery • Discussion and review with City staff and Housing Task Force Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data.All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted.Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. • Partially Vacant.This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones, this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." 1/4 acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with building value below $200,000-%acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size: These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 12 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 12 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 40 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix (see Table 3) are applied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site... Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus. Marylhurst Campus zone—probably needs a special look at any vacant area. Refine based on analysis of Marylhurst campus...ask DR planner? Campus Research& 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of res/non-res mix (FMU) General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots,total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type.A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 13 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 13 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 41 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 4,413 951 3,547 345 MixedUse 493 96 399 15 Non-Residential 181 21 160 - Public/Other 3,491 1,309 2,215 - Total 8,578 2,377 6,320 360 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land o; Ifi, _ ;r • '!t..f` ='Study Area r � 9 9iy � '�y �Constraints ;QP\M/ r1 ` �'�SW STEVHEN50'S7 � � �';L,,, -�.f /le ' r ' i V'c' ° ` a Development Status SSfR G;k ,a'` •I . ri. ,o-' �- '`':1. G. A Developed r tr ° Partially Vacant r Vacant 1 1 ikottt • r J osy J L ll Q ` I 2 1 `�c V f ' OF \;wt� `•yHu4f.• y._ �• • r `\ ik*- . ' -LREf':7.4fE1HD ' ;2.."7-1: \,,' L''Fa. 1. • i W`,g0, • �Hr. SBER�iS.'D `i. 0 •,a _ ... `r ai // 1 ps it yri``' !'90'rF y, / .! .`O�� fps x --0 025 0.5 1 �s ` .� ` Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status ,.epared by 0 O II DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 14 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 14 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 42 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones.This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density Table 7 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis. Table 4. Unit Capacity on Residential and Mixed Use Land Zoning Density Notes Assumption for BLI Designation Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net (could increase DU/AC net slightly to assume some middle housing) R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area. 4.3 4.3 du/ac net. (could increase du/ac net. slightly to assume some middle housing) R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 du/ac 5.8 du/ac net (could increase net slightly to assume some middle housing) Residential-Medium Density Zones R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, per —8 du/ac code. 5,000 sf min lot size for single- family. 1,500 for townhouse. R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac —8 du/ac theoretically possible. R-6 First Addition Neighborhood —7 du/ac (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for Single- Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 15 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 15 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 43 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Zoning Density Notes Assumption for BLI Designation R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 min —12 du/ac per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac). Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac R-W —12 du/ac Mixed Use Zones West Lake Grove Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 —5 du/ac Residential Mixed density or greater" Use(WLG RMU) West Lake Grove Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 35 du/ac expected in BFR Office-Commercial density or greater" Staging Site, nothing in other (WLG OC) areas Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 Generally applies to Merylhears Institutional (CI) density or greater". Must have University, which is treated commercial on ground floor. separately. Campus Research& 54 du/ac for projects that Development Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 include residential (-30%of the (CR&D) density or greater" district, as above) based on LU 19-0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 ^'56 du/ac Commercial(EC) density or greater". Must have commercial on ground floor. Foothills Mixed Use Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 ^'56 du/ac (FMU) density or greater" General Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 ^'27 du/ac based on Mercantile Commercial(GC) density or greater". Must have project(LU 18-0026) commercial on ground floor. Residential not allowed "In the GC-zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road" Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 8 du/ac (or R-5 density) for the Commercial(HC) density or greater" 10%that may develop as residential Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 67 du/ac for the 50%that may Commercial (NC) density or greater". Must have develop as residential (based on commercial on ground floor. LU 07-0031) Office Campus(OC) Table 50.03.002-2 notes "R-5 21 du/ac for the 50%that may density or greater" develop as residential (based on Galewood Commons Apartments) DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 16 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 16 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 44 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Summary Table 4 describes the net residential developable acres in Mixed Use zones, accounting for employment uses on mixed-use land and assumed right-of-way.Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area. Table 5. Net Developable Acres of Residential and Mixed Use Land Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 4,413 951 3,547 345 1,218 MixedUse 493 96 399 15 178 Non-Residential 181 21 160 - - Public/Other 3,491 1,309 2,215 - - Total 8,578 2,377 6,320 360 1,396 Figure 7. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Residential 1,218 EC/R-0 5 R-0 2 R-10 215 R-10 Comp Plan 468 R-15 114 R-3 22 R-5 104 R-7.5 136 R-7.5 Comp Plan 133 R-DD 10 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 8 Mixed Use 178 CR&D 39 EC 67 GC 12 NC 23 NC/R-0 9 OC/R-3 5 R-0 8 R-3 5 WLG-OC 7 WLG-R RMU 3 Grand Total 1,396 DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 17 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 17 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 45 OF 75 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis March 17, 2023 Additional Capacity: • Remaining Marylhurst University approval: 70 units • Additional Middle Housing Capacity(estimated at 3% of developed lots with single-detached dwellings): 410 Units • Redevelopment on Multifamily and Mixed Use Land:TBD. Further analysis will include a look at "strike price" (current value per square foot), age of structure, and recent trends related to converting office uses to residential uses. Total Unit Capacity: 1,876 Units. Mix (e.g. single detached, middle housing, multi-dwelling)TBD. Next Steps The contents of this inventory will be reviewed by City staff,the Housing Task Force, and other stakeholders. Further analysis into potential redevelopment,the characterization of"partially vacant" land, densities, housing mix, and other attributes of the BLI are expected. This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. DRAFT Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology Page 18 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT E/PAGE 18 OF 18 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 46 OF 75 DRAFT :t. , - e. A is ILL I k f.' A i E v, Li]i I ye€ Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 March 2023 \1� JOHNSON ECONOMICS PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 1 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 47 OF 75 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Advisory Committees Consultants Johnson Economics MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 2 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 48 OF 75 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. INCOME TRENDS 8 H. POVERTY STATISTICS 9 I. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 9 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 11 A. HOUSING TENURE 11 B. HOUSING STOCK 11 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 11 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 12 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 13 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 14 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 15 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 17 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 23 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 3 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 49 OF 75 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043 consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: ■ Portland State University Population Research Center ■ Metro ■ U.S.Census ■ Claritas2 ■ Oregon Employment Department ■ City of Lake Oswego ■ Clackamas County ■ Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego,as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. 'ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation. It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 4 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 50 OF 75 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin, and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES, AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population) 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH ($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of 2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS 5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-year ACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 5 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 51 OF 75 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000,while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households.This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period.The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons;69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census. Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2:NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more 0' Renter 6-person 1% Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in v 4-person 11% 18% 0 = 3-person 11/0 19% 2-person 35% 38% 1-person 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 6 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 52 OF 75 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census,the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8% of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households. In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits: An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000, with 24% being multi- family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 100 iii . 0 0 II III 00 `l O� 00 09' y0 yL y0 ti0 ,LO ,LO ,ti0 ,y0 ,LO ,LO ,y0 ,ti0 ,LO• ,ti0 ,y0 ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 7 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 53 OF 75 FIGURE 2.4: AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% N o 0 -1 N o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti o v o 0 15% ir `1 m a N N c o N o rl O o O 10% O, I I ::: 5%0% ���aaie �o 1eaty a`", a J aac �o �o so �o ,co ,co �o wh J° N, .1, „,, ph hh <0 1h SOURCE: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5: SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 16% 20% 20% 18% o 10% 10% 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B11005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 8 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 54 OF 75 G. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.6: INCOME TRENDS,2000—2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH ($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 • Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500, and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. • Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. • Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. Figure 2.7 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021.The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year(32%), followed by households earning over$200k (27%). • 41%of households earn less than $100,000. • Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. FIGURE 2.7: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to $99,999 11% $50,000 to $74,999 11% $35,000 to $49,999 6% $25,000 to $34,999 4% $15,000 to $24,999 4% $10,000 to $14,999 2% Less than $10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables: S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 9 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 55 OF 75 H. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%,and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: ■ The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups,but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. ■ For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. ■ Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.8: POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college, associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) I. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database.These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. 3 Census Tables: S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates) The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty.There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 10 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 56 OF 75 As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these,an estimated 2,250 or 10%,are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.9: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Metzger Milwaukie Hasp — , CAPITOL HILL Q Tryon Creek State `43 Milwaukie int Natural Areaiij, M ❑unthorpe - jarci 3pL Y of Oswego 20,900 2,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere in Lake Oswego work elsewhere up i :ryantn n's � I 4 '1 anding Durham ritage Center 90% / 10% 12% / 88% Jennie w - •' ;11/0. top II ,River Grovel - Stafford ualatin Q Legacy Meridian Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 11 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 57 OF 75 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71%of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide(63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 9% 6% -0% 1% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census.Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16% of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 12 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 58 OF 75 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter IMMI 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom 27% 2% Studio 6% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes,which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 13 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 59 OF 75 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% Owner 80% Rental 59% E 60% co 40% 20% 18/ 10/0 13% 60 6% � 0% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% 23% 23% Renter 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% o 10% 7% 10% U o 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% 05 �0005 c)oy ti°coy \oy (c)oy 4 05 ti°�oy y eat\\eC of Year Housing Unit Built SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units, older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 14 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 60 OF 75 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others, and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30% of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households o 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% n 60% 51% U, U, 0 0 v ao 40% c z =• 20% 12%0 16% ai• 0% co Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs,including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent4 for local renter households only.This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)." Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 15 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 61 OF 75 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% . 25% 22% 0 a, 20% o• 15% 14% 10% 7% s 5% 3% 0% � ■ �Oo�o y�Io ��10 ���o ���o 0 L 10 cO �O ,�O Ot C� o\oo\o %of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents. The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families.Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds, as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 16 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 62 OF 75 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18),and 26 youth(aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender,60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities, including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing.An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. e HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act,who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 17 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 63 OF 75 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019.The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#ofHH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources:Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%.This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home (tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 18 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 64 OF 75 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2:ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than $15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than $15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas Analytics.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007,B25106,B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas Analytics: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be$400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate,but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term. The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 19 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 65 OF 75 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference, or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% 59% Rental 60% 0 0 v 40% 18% 20% 10% a 13% - 6/0 0% 5/ 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032,B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 20 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 66 OF 75 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY,ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032,B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 PP 22-0005 ATTACHMENT F/PAGE 21 OF 29 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT D-3/PAGE 67 OF 75 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 N 6,000 •Est.Owner Households Y_ 7 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 0 2,000 I 0 1,000 . . . . 0 — 0 0 0 0 0 0 x0 o 0 0 0 0 o o o0 � � � 0 0 0 0 � O h, b, b �, , ,Ab' 0 1, b 0) 0,hy L q h � y y q0 ca 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0r0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '5 0 uh 0 0 0 e qqhh 0% h, 0, te h 0 h hti hti hti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 Est.Renter Households N E 1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level o -6 1,000 v VI 3 = 500 o ■ ■ I 1 6 . . A o 0 0 0 0, 0, X0 , , , 0, o 0, 0, 0,0 � � � , g o e o o h, b, , h, , C, , � 0 Q. b \b, Lb, b 0 0'y L h h 0 tzti ho c . L e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0r 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 tee, hyh, h,Lh, h,"h, hh0, huh, 00, �h0 h0, hti hti hti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS