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Exh B-1 Findings Approved 09-11-2023 LU 23-0023 (02) APPROVED: 09/11/2023 1 BEFORE THE PLANNING COMMISSION 2 OF THE 3 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 4 5 A REQUEST TO ADOPT AN UPDATED 6 2023 HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR THE ) LU 23-0023 7 PURPOSE OF COMPLYING WITH OREGON ) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 8 HOUSE BILL 2003 (2019)AND OAR 660-08-0045 ) FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS& ORDER 9 AND ADOPTING ORDINANCE 2934. ) 10 11 12 NATURE OF APPLICATION 13 14 The City of Lake Oswego is proposing to adopt an updated 2023 Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) 15 (Ordinance 2934)for the purpose of complying with Oregon House Bill 2003 (2019) and OAR 660-08- 16 0045. (The current HNA was adopted in 2013). 17 18 HEARINGS 19 20 The Planning Commission held a public hearing and considered this application at its meeting on August 21 28, 2023.The following information was presented to the Commission at its hearing and added to the 22 record: 23 G-1 Email from J. Dahlquist, dated August 28, 2023 24 25 CRITERIA AND STANDARDS 26 A. Oregon Statewide Planning Goals 27 Goal 10: Housing 28 29 B. Interpretation of Goal 10: Housing(OAR Chapter 660, Division 8) 30 OAR 660-008-0045 Housing Capacity Analysis Deadline 31 32 C. ORS Chapter 197 -Comprehensive Land Use Planning 33 ORS 197.297 Analysis of housing capacity and needed housing in Metro cities 34 35 D. City of Lake Oswego Community Development Code 36 LOC 50.07.003.3.c Notice of Public Hearing 37 LOC 50.07.003.4 Hearings before a Hearings Body 38 LOC 50.07.003.16.a Legislative Decision Defined (Quasi-judicial Comp. Plan 39 Map, Zone Map, and CDC Amendments to be processed via 40 Major Developments Procedures) 41 LOC 50.07.003.16.c Required Notice to DLCD 42 LOC 50.07.003.16.d Planning Commission Recommendation Required 43 LOC 50.07.003.16.e City Council Review and Decision 44 45 LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 1 of 5 APPROVED: 09/11/2023 1 E. Metro Code 2 Urban Growth Management Functional Plan—Title 7: Housing Choice 3 4 CONCLUSION 5 6 The Planning Commission concludes that the draft 2023 Housing Needs Analysis in Attachment 2 (dated 7 July 24, 2023) of proposed Ordinance 2934 is in compliance with all applicable criteria, as modified 8 below. 9 10 FINDINGS AND REASONS 11 12 The Planning Commission (Commission) incorporates the staff report dated 07/24/23 with all exhibits 13 attached thereto), on LU 23-0023 as support for its decision, supplemented by the further findings and 14 conclusions set forth herein. In the event of any inconsistency between the supplementary matter 15 herein and the staff report,the matter herein controls. 16 17 Following are the supplementary findings and conclusions of this Commission: 18 19 1. Solutions to remedy housing deficit.The Commission received written testimony from a 20 representative of the Housing Land Advocates noting that the proposed 2023 HNA does not 21 include any proposed solutions on how to remedy the projected deficit of housing units 22 identified in the analysis (Exhibit G-1). 23 24 The Commission has identified that ORS 197.297 is applicable to this issue: 25 26 ORS 197.297-Analysis of housing capacity and needed housing in Metro cities 27 28 (1)At least once every six years, by a date scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development 29 Commission, a city that is within a metropolitan service district and has a population greater than 30 10,000 shall: 31 (a)Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the city and determine the housing capacity 32 of the buildable lands;and 33 (b) Conduct an analysis of the city's existing and projected needed housing under statewide 34 planning goals and rules related to housing by type, mix, affordability and density range to 35 determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for 36 the next 20 years. 37 38 (2) The housing capacity and needed housing analysis conducted under this section must be 39 adopted as part of the city's comprehensive plan no later than one year after completion of the 40 needed housing analysis. 41 42 (3)If the housing capacity and needed housing analysis conducted under this section 43 demonstrates a housing need, the city shall amend its comprehensive plan or land use regulations 44 to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that development of needed 45 housing will occur for the type, mix, affordability and densities sufficient to accommodate needed 46 housing for the next 20 years. [2021 c.164§2] LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 2 of 5 APPROVED: 09/11/2023 1 2 Commission Finding: Compliance with ORS Chapter 197 is discussed on pages 10-11 of Exhibit D- 3 1. The Commission concurs with the findings in the Staff Report that the 2023 HNA Report was 4 prepared based upon the criteria in ORS Chapter 197 and complies. 5 6 The Commission finds that it is not appropriate for the 2023 HNA to include strategies to 7 remedy the projected deficit in housing units, as such strategies are intended to be identified 8 through the subsequent development of a Housing Production Strategy (HPS) as required per 9 Oregon House Bill 2003 (2019)[now codified at ORS 197.290] and OAR 660-08-0050.The 10 Commission finds that it would be premature to evaluate any solutions given that the HPS is the 11 statutory and administrative rule required forum for identifying solutions related to meeting 12 future housing needs, which may include amendments to the Community Development Code, 13 Comprehensive Plan amendments,financial and funding mechanisms, or other potential 14 housing production strategies. 15 16 The Commission notes that the statutory and administrative rule requirement for the City to 17 produce an HPS is relatively new, and was not a requirement when the 2013 HNA was adopted. 18 Thus, while it may have been appropriate to include strategies to remedy a projected deficit in 19 housing units within the HNA document itself in previous years,the new requirement to 20 develop an HPS will provide the City with an opportunity to produce a much more detailed and 21 refined set of strategies to address the housing needs identified in the HNA. 22 23 The Commission finds that there is no requirement in ORS 197.297 or elsewhere to identify 24 strategies to remedy the deficit in housing units identified in the 2023 HNA. ORS 197.297 is met. 25 26 2. Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing- Findings.The City received written testimony 27 from a representative of Housing Land Advocates with a request that City staff modify the 28 findings for Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing to include a summary of the projected 29 deficit of housing units in the City. 30 31 The Commission has identified that Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10 is applicable to this issue: 32 33 GOAL 10:HOUSING 34 To provide for the housing needs of citizens of the state. 35 36 Commission Finding: Compliance with Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing is discussed 37 on page 9 of Exhibit D-1.The Commission concurs with the findings in the Staff Report that the 38 2023 HNA is consistent with all applicable Oregon Statewide Planning Goals. 39 40 The Commission notes that the HNA Report includes a reconciliation of the anticipated future 41 housing needs identified in the HNA and the land supply identified in the Buildable Lands 42 Inventory.The results show a projected deficit of 642 dwelling units, or 86 acres, in the City by 43 2043.This includes a deficit of 192 units (38 acres) in low-density zones, 249 units (31 acres) in 44 medium-density zones, and 201 units (17 acres) in high-density zones. 45 46 The Commission finds that the 2023 HNA has been established on a factual basis, is consistent 47 with existing City policies, and has been sufficiently coordinated with needed housing in the LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 3 of 5 APPROVED: 09/11/2023 1 Metro region, in accordance with OAR 660-008-030(1). Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10 is 2 met. 3 4 3. Metro Coordinated Population Forecast.The Commission noted that the projected growth 5 identified in the 2023 HNA was based on the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake 6 Oswego included in the 2021 Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the 7 region. 8 9 The Commission identified that ORS 195.025 designates Metro as the local government 10 responsible for coordination of planning activities within the Metro district, and ORS 195.036 11 requires Metro, in coordination with other local governments within its boundary,to issue a 12 population forecast for the entire area within its boundary to be applied by Metro and local 13 governments within the boundary of Metro as a basis for changes to comprehensive plans and 14 land use regulations.The 2021 Coordinated Population Forecast was accepted and adopted by 15 the Metro Council as fulfillment of Metro's responsibilities regarding coordination of population 16 forecasts under ORS 195.025 and 195.036 and is endorsed for use by the 24 cities and three 17 counties as their own population and employment forecasts for their planning activities. 18 19 The projected annual growth rate in Metro's 2021 Coordinated Population Forecast for the City 20 of Lake Oswego was .05% per year, resulting in an increase of 411 residents over the course of 21 the 20-year planning horizon.This equates to a projected population increase of approximately 22 1%over that 20-year timeframe. 23 24 The Commission found that the growth rate for the City of Lake Oswego contained within the 25 2021 Metro Coordinated Population Forecast is not consistent with recent housing trends. On 26 page 5,the HNA states that, "Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within 27 the UGB, or 18% in 23 years."The Commission found that the projected 1%growth rate between 28 2023-2043 was significantly lower than the 18% population growth in the City over the last 20 29 years, and expressed skepticism regarding the accuracy of the 2021 Metro Coordinated 30 Population Forecast. 31 32 In order to address this concern,the Commission requests that the 2023 HNA include language 33 stating that the 2021 Metro Coordinated Population Forecast was likely under-projecting future 34 population growth in the City.The Commission finds that the following language shall be added 35 to the 2023 HNA as a footnote: 36 37 "The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory 38 approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis.To comply with state rules,the analysis relies 39 on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research 40 Center(PRC) and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast. 41 The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during 42 the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state. 43 The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1% 44 between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be 45 a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05% per year. Many community 46 members in Lake Oswego, including members of the project Task Force, as well as members of 47 the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected 48 growth rates, but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 4 of 5 APPROVED: 09/11/2023 1 extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict, the deficit of land available to 2 accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume 3 remaining buildable land more quickly, potentially running out of buildable land within several 4 years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six 5 years; thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population 6 forecast, if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends. It will be 7 important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to 8 continue to monitor actual growth patterns, as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To 9 the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected, the City will need to identify and 10 implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near 11 term." 12 13 ORDER 14 15 IT IS ORDERED BY THE PLANNING COMMISSION of the City of Lake Oswego that: 16 17 1. The Planning Commission recommends that proposed Ordinance 2934, with Exhibit A-1 (based on 18 Attachment 2, dated July 24, 2023) [LU 23-0023]be approved by the City Council. 19 20 I CERTIFY THAT THIS ORDER was presented to and APPROVED by the Planning Commission of the City of 21 Lake Oswego. 22 23 DATED this 11 day of September, 2023. 24 25 26 Is/Philip Stewart, Chair 27 Philip Stewart, Chair 28 Planning Commission 29 30 31 32 PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATION - August 28,2023 33 34 AYES: Mitchell, Naujock, Stewart,Thwing 35 NOES: Rigby 36 ABSTAIN: None 37 EXCUSED: Moreno, Schenone 38 39 ADOPTION OF FINDINGS AND ORDER - September 11, 2023 40 41 AYES: Mitchell, Naujock, Stewart,Thwing, Moreno, Schenone 42 NOES: Rigby 43 ABSTAIN: None 44 EXCUSED: None LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 5 of 5