Exh B-1 Findings Approved 09-11-2023 LU 23-0023 (02) APPROVED: 09/11/2023
1 BEFORE THE PLANNING COMMISSION
2 OF THE
3 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO
4
5 A REQUEST TO ADOPT AN UPDATED
6 2023 HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR THE ) LU 23-0023
7 PURPOSE OF COMPLYING WITH OREGON ) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO
8 HOUSE BILL 2003 (2019)AND OAR 660-08-0045 ) FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS& ORDER
9 AND ADOPTING ORDINANCE 2934. )
10
11
12 NATURE OF APPLICATION
13
14 The City of Lake Oswego is proposing to adopt an updated 2023 Housing Needs Analysis (HNA)
15 (Ordinance 2934)for the purpose of complying with Oregon House Bill 2003 (2019) and OAR 660-08-
16 0045. (The current HNA was adopted in 2013).
17
18 HEARINGS
19
20 The Planning Commission held a public hearing and considered this application at its meeting on August
21 28, 2023.The following information was presented to the Commission at its hearing and added to the
22 record:
23 G-1 Email from J. Dahlquist, dated August 28, 2023
24
25 CRITERIA AND STANDARDS
26 A. Oregon Statewide Planning Goals
27 Goal 10: Housing
28
29 B. Interpretation of Goal 10: Housing(OAR Chapter 660, Division 8)
30 OAR 660-008-0045 Housing Capacity Analysis Deadline
31
32 C. ORS Chapter 197 -Comprehensive Land Use Planning
33 ORS 197.297 Analysis of housing capacity and needed housing in Metro cities
34
35 D. City of Lake Oswego Community Development Code
36 LOC 50.07.003.3.c Notice of Public Hearing
37 LOC 50.07.003.4 Hearings before a Hearings Body
38 LOC 50.07.003.16.a Legislative Decision Defined (Quasi-judicial Comp. Plan
39 Map, Zone Map, and CDC Amendments to be processed via
40 Major Developments Procedures)
41 LOC 50.07.003.16.c Required Notice to DLCD
42 LOC 50.07.003.16.d Planning Commission Recommendation Required
43 LOC 50.07.003.16.e City Council Review and Decision
44
45
LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 1 of 5
APPROVED: 09/11/2023
1 E. Metro Code
2 Urban Growth Management Functional Plan—Title 7: Housing Choice
3
4 CONCLUSION
5
6 The Planning Commission concludes that the draft 2023 Housing Needs Analysis in Attachment 2 (dated
7 July 24, 2023) of proposed Ordinance 2934 is in compliance with all applicable criteria, as modified
8 below.
9
10 FINDINGS AND REASONS
11
12 The Planning Commission (Commission) incorporates the staff report dated 07/24/23 with all exhibits
13 attached thereto), on LU 23-0023 as support for its decision, supplemented by the further findings and
14 conclusions set forth herein. In the event of any inconsistency between the supplementary matter
15 herein and the staff report,the matter herein controls.
16
17 Following are the supplementary findings and conclusions of this Commission:
18
19 1. Solutions to remedy housing deficit.The Commission received written testimony from a
20 representative of the Housing Land Advocates noting that the proposed 2023 HNA does not
21 include any proposed solutions on how to remedy the projected deficit of housing units
22 identified in the analysis (Exhibit G-1).
23
24 The Commission has identified that ORS 197.297 is applicable to this issue:
25
26 ORS 197.297-Analysis of housing capacity and needed housing in Metro cities
27
28 (1)At least once every six years, by a date scheduled by the Land Conservation and Development
29 Commission, a city that is within a metropolitan service district and has a population greater than
30 10,000 shall:
31 (a)Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the city and determine the housing capacity
32 of the buildable lands;and
33 (b) Conduct an analysis of the city's existing and projected needed housing under statewide
34 planning goals and rules related to housing by type, mix, affordability and density range to
35 determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type for
36 the next 20 years.
37
38 (2) The housing capacity and needed housing analysis conducted under this section must be
39 adopted as part of the city's comprehensive plan no later than one year after completion of the
40 needed housing analysis.
41
42 (3)If the housing capacity and needed housing analysis conducted under this section
43 demonstrates a housing need, the city shall amend its comprehensive plan or land use regulations
44 to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that development of needed
45 housing will occur for the type, mix, affordability and densities sufficient to accommodate needed
46 housing for the next 20 years. [2021 c.164§2]
LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 2 of 5
APPROVED: 09/11/2023
1
2 Commission Finding: Compliance with ORS Chapter 197 is discussed on pages 10-11 of Exhibit D-
3 1. The Commission concurs with the findings in the Staff Report that the 2023 HNA Report was
4 prepared based upon the criteria in ORS Chapter 197 and complies.
5
6 The Commission finds that it is not appropriate for the 2023 HNA to include strategies to
7 remedy the projected deficit in housing units, as such strategies are intended to be identified
8 through the subsequent development of a Housing Production Strategy (HPS) as required per
9 Oregon House Bill 2003 (2019)[now codified at ORS 197.290] and OAR 660-08-0050.The
10 Commission finds that it would be premature to evaluate any solutions given that the HPS is the
11 statutory and administrative rule required forum for identifying solutions related to meeting
12 future housing needs, which may include amendments to the Community Development Code,
13 Comprehensive Plan amendments,financial and funding mechanisms, or other potential
14 housing production strategies.
15
16 The Commission notes that the statutory and administrative rule requirement for the City to
17 produce an HPS is relatively new, and was not a requirement when the 2013 HNA was adopted.
18 Thus, while it may have been appropriate to include strategies to remedy a projected deficit in
19 housing units within the HNA document itself in previous years,the new requirement to
20 develop an HPS will provide the City with an opportunity to produce a much more detailed and
21 refined set of strategies to address the housing needs identified in the HNA.
22
23 The Commission finds that there is no requirement in ORS 197.297 or elsewhere to identify
24 strategies to remedy the deficit in housing units identified in the 2023 HNA. ORS 197.297 is met.
25
26 2. Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing- Findings.The City received written testimony
27 from a representative of Housing Land Advocates with a request that City staff modify the
28 findings for Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing to include a summary of the projected
29 deficit of housing units in the City.
30
31 The Commission has identified that Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10 is applicable to this issue:
32
33 GOAL 10:HOUSING
34 To provide for the housing needs of citizens of the state.
35
36 Commission Finding: Compliance with Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing is discussed
37 on page 9 of Exhibit D-1.The Commission concurs with the findings in the Staff Report that the
38 2023 HNA is consistent with all applicable Oregon Statewide Planning Goals.
39
40 The Commission notes that the HNA Report includes a reconciliation of the anticipated future
41 housing needs identified in the HNA and the land supply identified in the Buildable Lands
42 Inventory.The results show a projected deficit of 642 dwelling units, or 86 acres, in the City by
43 2043.This includes a deficit of 192 units (38 acres) in low-density zones, 249 units (31 acres) in
44 medium-density zones, and 201 units (17 acres) in high-density zones.
45
46 The Commission finds that the 2023 HNA has been established on a factual basis, is consistent
47 with existing City policies, and has been sufficiently coordinated with needed housing in the
LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 3 of 5
APPROVED: 09/11/2023
1 Metro region, in accordance with OAR 660-008-030(1). Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10 is
2 met.
3
4 3. Metro Coordinated Population Forecast.The Commission noted that the projected growth
5 identified in the 2023 HNA was based on the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake
6 Oswego included in the 2021 Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the
7 region.
8
9 The Commission identified that ORS 195.025 designates Metro as the local government
10 responsible for coordination of planning activities within the Metro district, and ORS 195.036
11 requires Metro, in coordination with other local governments within its boundary,to issue a
12 population forecast for the entire area within its boundary to be applied by Metro and local
13 governments within the boundary of Metro as a basis for changes to comprehensive plans and
14 land use regulations.The 2021 Coordinated Population Forecast was accepted and adopted by
15 the Metro Council as fulfillment of Metro's responsibilities regarding coordination of population
16 forecasts under ORS 195.025 and 195.036 and is endorsed for use by the 24 cities and three
17 counties as their own population and employment forecasts for their planning activities.
18
19 The projected annual growth rate in Metro's 2021 Coordinated Population Forecast for the City
20 of Lake Oswego was .05% per year, resulting in an increase of 411 residents over the course of
21 the 20-year planning horizon.This equates to a projected population increase of approximately
22 1%over that 20-year timeframe.
23
24 The Commission found that the growth rate for the City of Lake Oswego contained within the
25 2021 Metro Coordinated Population Forecast is not consistent with recent housing trends. On
26 page 5,the HNA states that, "Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within
27 the UGB, or 18% in 23 years."The Commission found that the projected 1%growth rate between
28 2023-2043 was significantly lower than the 18% population growth in the City over the last 20
29 years, and expressed skepticism regarding the accuracy of the 2021 Metro Coordinated
30 Population Forecast.
31
32 In order to address this concern,the Commission requests that the 2023 HNA include language
33 stating that the 2021 Metro Coordinated Population Forecast was likely under-projecting future
34 population growth in the City.The Commission finds that the following language shall be added
35 to the 2023 HNA as a footnote:
36
37 "The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory
38 approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis.To comply with state rules,the analysis relies
39 on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research
40 Center(PRC) and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast.
41 The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during
42 the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state.
43 The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1%
44 between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be
45 a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05% per year. Many community
46 members in Lake Oswego, including members of the project Task Force, as well as members of
47 the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected
48 growth rates, but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the
LU 23-0023 EXHIBIT B-1/PAGE 4 of 5
APPROVED: 09/11/2023
1 extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict, the deficit of land available to
2 accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume
3 remaining buildable land more quickly, potentially running out of buildable land within several
4 years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six
5 years; thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population
6 forecast, if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends. It will be
7 important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to
8 continue to monitor actual growth patterns, as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To
9 the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected, the City will need to identify and
10 implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near
11 term."
12
13 ORDER
14
15 IT IS ORDERED BY THE PLANNING COMMISSION of the City of Lake Oswego that:
16
17 1. The Planning Commission recommends that proposed Ordinance 2934, with Exhibit A-1 (based on
18 Attachment 2, dated July 24, 2023) [LU 23-0023]be approved by the City Council.
19
20 I CERTIFY THAT THIS ORDER was presented to and APPROVED by the Planning Commission of the City of
21 Lake Oswego.
22
23 DATED this 11 day of September, 2023.
24
25
26 Is/Philip Stewart, Chair
27 Philip Stewart, Chair
28 Planning Commission
29
30
31
32 PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATION - August 28,2023
33
34 AYES: Mitchell, Naujock, Stewart,Thwing
35 NOES: Rigby
36 ABSTAIN: None
37 EXCUSED: Moreno, Schenone
38
39 ADOPTION OF FINDINGS AND ORDER - September 11, 2023
40
41 AYES: Mitchell, Naujock, Stewart,Thwing, Moreno, Schenone
42 NOES: Rigby
43 ABSTAIN: None
44 EXCUSED: None
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