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Exh E-1 Housing Needs Analysis 2023 AN 24-0001
ATTACHMENT 2 (ORDINANCE 2934) LU 23-0023 , A I `III16, 04 • I _ - • • • I I ill Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 September 21, 2023 it I JOH NSON ECONOMICS AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Lake Oswego Housing Task Force Kasey Adler,Transportation Advisory Board Yoko Kinoshita, Resident Kyrsten Baumgart, Housing producer Rebecca Lane, Resident Phil Bertrand, Housing producer Rosalie Nowalk, Resident Joseph M. Buck, City Council Liaison John E. Pauley, Resident Thea Croman, DLCD Bruce Poinsette, Development Review Commission Kelly Reid, DLCD Phillip Stewart, Planning Commission Liaison Douglas Corder, 50+Advisory Board David Tangvald, Housing producer Pat Ginn, Resident Kimvi To, D.E.I. Advisory Board Diana Howell, Resident John Turchi, Resident Cara Kao-Young, Resident Sarah Walker, Housing producer Betty Jung, Resident Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Andrew Parish, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 2 OF 55 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH &SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS 8 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY 10 I. INCOME TRENDS 11 J. POVERTY STATISTICS 12 K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 12 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 14 A. HOUSING TENURE 14 B. HOUSING STOCK 14 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 14 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 15 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 16 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 17 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 18 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 20 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 26 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED(2043)&LAND SUPPLY 32 APPENDIX A: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY 35 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 3 OF 55 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043,consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: ■ Portland State University Population Research Center ■ Metro ■ U.S. Census ■ Claritas2 ■ Oregon Employment Department ■ City of Lake Oswego ■ Clackamas County ■ Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego,as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. 1 ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 4 OF 55 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin,and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population1 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;519301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-year ACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 5 OF 55 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000, while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households.This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period. The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons; 69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census.Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2:NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more 0% Renter 6 person 1% Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in 2° 4-person 11% 18% a = 3-person 11/0 0 19/0 2-person 35/ o 38/o 1-person 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 6 OF 55 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census, the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8%of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households.In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits:An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000,with 24%being multi-family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi-Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 100 ■ 50 I I I I I I I ' I I I I I I I Hi . 0 00 O1 liii Oco Orb O 'L yR tico ti� LO y'L ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 7 OF 55 FIGURE 2.4:AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% N o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti Ln v o � o 15% - r ,, ti tsilCV o c-I o e-1 c ,-IO o e-1 O r-I %-1 O c 10% `" al I c o i to5% � N N c- 0% 1ll ''' '''' y�Ae' ��-orate ��Ae' ��aaath h��eac5 ���eate ���eat5 ��aaach A'. aec �o �o �o �o �o ,so �0 cb SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5:SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 10% 10% 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B11005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 8 OF 55 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS The following figure presents the distribution of Lake Oswego's population by race and Hispanic ethnicity. The community grew more diverse between the 2010 and 2020 Census, with the population's white (non-Hispanic) share falling from 90%to 80%. The Asian population makes up 8% of the population, and the Hispanic or Latino population makes up 5%of residents.9%of residents identify as two or more races. FIGURE 2.6:RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY,2010—2020(LAKE OSWEGO) 100% o Share of Population by Race o Lake Oswego(2010) co 80% •Lake Oswego(2020) 60% I •Clackamas Co. 40% Oregon 20% o o oo o e rn L. Hi o o HiME -. a, c v c a, v o co c > coc m O c LE o47, w• (o Z Q CO C (o cc a, J a, U Q l.1 CO N a, O i ` ▪ Q U H 3Ii 1= ~ SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P1,P2(2010,2020) In comparison,the share of the population identifying as white is also 80%in Clackamas County,and 75%statewide. The share of Lake Oswego's population identifying as Hispanic or Latino is 5% of the population, indicating over 2,100 people as of the 2020 Census.This is lower than the 14%share statewide. FIGURE 2.7:AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Average Household Size by Race & Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 2.5 White alone 2.4 Black or African American alone 2.5 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 2.8 Asian alone 2.8 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 3.5 Hispanic or Latino 3.7 Some Other Race alone 4.0 Two or more races: 2.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Avg.Number of Persons per Household SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P17A-H,(State of Oregon,2020) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2010).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature unusually large margins of error due to the small sample size. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 9 OF 55 Minority households tend to have a larger average household size than the average of all households (Figure 2.7). (This figure presents statewide data due to the high margin of error for local data in this data set.) Households identifying as"white alone" have the lowest average household size(2.4 persons),while all other racial and ethnic categories have a larger estimated average household size. Some of the non-white categories, such as black households and those of two or more races,are still similar in average size(2.5 and 2.7 persons,respectively).Those with the largest estimated households are Latinos, Pacific Islanders,and those identifying as"some other race." Larger average household size indicates a need for units with more bedrooms on average among many minority households. Each household has its own housing needs in terms of the number of bedrooms and other factors, based on the specific makeup of each family. Based on voluntary guidelines provided by HUD for public housing programs, households of between 2 persons generally need a one-bedroom unit, households with 3 persons might need two bedrooms, and those with 4 persons might need three bedrooms. Larger households may need four or more bedrooms,which are typically found in single detached homes. Based on statewide data, many racial and ethnic minorities are currently less likely to own the homes they occupy (Figure 2.8)—meaning that they tend to occupy rental units.These communities face systemic obstacles to home ownership,including lower generational wealth, less access to capital and financing,and a history of discrimination in lending and geography(e.g.,redlining).While the country and state try to address explicit discrimination through the law, the legacy of these barriers continues to hamper home ownership for many minority households. Going forward, many communities would benefit from more entry-level homebuying opportunities for these households, as well as additional rental housing for those who are still unready or unable to buy a home. FIGURE 2.8:HOME OWNERSHIP RATE BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Owner-Occupied Households by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 63% White alone 65% Black or African American alone 36% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 48% Asian alone 63% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 32% Hispanic or Latino 45% Some Other Race alone 43% Two or more races: 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ownership Rate SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25003A-H,(State of Oregon,2021 ACS 5-year) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2020).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature larger margins of error due to small sample size in some of the racial categories. Populations from some racial and ethnic minority groups also have lower average incomes and are more likely to have income below the official poverty level when compared to the total population. Such income levels are correlated with a greater share of renter households and impact the types of housing these populations consume, as discussed in further detail below. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 10 OF 55 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY An estimated 8%of the population of Lake Oswego, or 3,140 people, report having some form of disability.This is lower than the statewide rate of 14%and the Clackamas County rate of 12%of people with a disability.(The Census reports these statistics for the"non-institutionalized population.") The following figure presents Census estimates of the types of disability reported among Lake Oswego residents. Any type of disability impacts the type of housing that may be appropriate for a resident,but those with the greatest impact on needed unit type are generally an ambulatory,self-care, or independent living disability.Those with an ambulatory disability often need units with expanded access for a wheelchair,walker,or scooter.Those with self- care or independent living disabilities may require additional safety precautions around the home to protect a resident who cannot always be directly monitored. FIGURE 2.9:LAKE OSWEGO SHARE OF THE POPULATION WITH DISABILITY,BY TYPE Share of Population Population with a disability 7.8% Hearing difficulty 2.4% Vision difficulty 1.7% Cognitive difficulty 2.7% Ambulatory difficulty 2.9% Self-care difficulty 1.1% Independent living difficulty 2.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) FIGURE 2.10:LAKE OSWEGO POPULATION WITH A DISABILITY,BY AGE Share of Population with Disability by Age Total population 7.8% Under 18 years . 2.0% 18 to 64 years NM 5.8% 65 years and over 19.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 11 OF 55 Older residents are more likely to report a disability, including nearly 20%of those over 65 years.Of those aged 18 to 64 years, 6% of the local population reports a disability, and 2% of children. Because Census data tends to undercount the homeless and other vulnerable populations, there are likely more disabled residents in Lake Oswego than reflected in these data. I. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.11: INCOME TRENDS,2000—2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH ($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 ■ Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500, and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. ■ Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. ■ Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. FIGURE 2.12: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to$99,999 11% $50,000 to$74,999 11% $35,000 to$49,999 6% $25,000 to$34,999 4% $15,000 to$24,999 4% $10,000 to$14,999 2% Less than$10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables:S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) Figure 2.12 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k(27%). ■ 41%of households earn less than$100,000. ■ Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 12 OF 55 J. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%,and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: • The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups, but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. • For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. • Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.13:POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college,associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher -9 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database.These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these, an estimated 2,250 or 10%, are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities Census Tables:S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates);Methodology The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 13 OF 55 in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now, a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.14: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Metzger • -. Milwaukie Hospi C A.I-T JL HILL • iJ 14 Tryon Cre=elc State - Q 1 1Iwaukie Et M Natural Area .ti • 1 4a e L i�'. - . - -- �_ 1— lardiL,' ----.-------- \ r2:.,, i 99'E 'Os.•ve o 20,900 2,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere \ in Lake Oswego work elsewhere :ryanl , n•s arrd .ink Durham i! _. R . t till / 10% 12% / 88% Jena'i ritage Center 1, •River Grove :: ualtifi1 Stafford ) 1 Legacy Meridian. ` m I, I L■ l• I , .Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 14 OF 55 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide (63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 0% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census. Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16% of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 15 OF 55 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom ° 27% 2% Studio ° 6% 0/ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes, which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 16 OF 55 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% • Rental 59% g 60% 0 40% 20% 18/ 10/° 13% 6% 6% 0% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% % Renter 20% j0i10JI2i4fP23 * :5% 3%■ 1/ of 3� Year Housing Unit Built c; SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units, older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 17 OF 55 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others,and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30%of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households o 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% A 60% 51% L0 U, N tto 40% •c = 20% 12% 16% v 0% n Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs, including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent' for local renter households only.This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. 'The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)."Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 18 OF 55 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% 25% 22% 0 20% =• 15% 14% v • 10% 7% N 5% � ■ 0% olo y�olo 'Lc) ��Io ��olo oe, o O O 0 Lod \ 01 of %of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents. The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families.Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds,as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or 5 Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 19 OF 55 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18), and 26 youth (aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender, 60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities,including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. 6 HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act,who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 20 OF 55 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources: Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%.This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home (tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 21 OF 55 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2:ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007, B25106,B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be $400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate,but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term. The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 22 OF 55 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference,or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% S9/ Rental 60% 0 v 40% 18% 20% 10% 0 13% - 6/ 0% 5% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004, B25032,B25063, B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 23 OF 55 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY,ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 - 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004, B25032,B25063, B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 24 OF 55 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 6,000 •Est.Owner Households N = 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level D - 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 0 2,000 o 1,000 � xk 0 M ■ ■ ■ I 0 0 < < < x0 ) ) ) ) 0) 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 h, p, p, op e c c 0 t gyp, 1, '0 0 0hy hL hgy h h 'lc) O • • • • • h ra� 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ys� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00h, h, 'h, 0, Ah' 0, h, 0 He hti hu h' h h 0 � h h'\ hti hti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 •Est.Renter Households E1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level t° 1,000 a) U, = 500 x 0 ■ ■ 1II I I I I . h h h h h ti ti ' O ' wren 000 000 000 000 000 00 00 00 hL �e`'� htih hlh, h''h, h`'0 huh 000 1h0 h00 h,' h, 'IN' Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The home value and rent segments which show a"surplus"in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around those levels.These levels will be too costly for some(i.e.require more than 30%in gross income)or"too affordable" for others(i.e.they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose). In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing.There is a need for more rental units at lower rent levels(<$900/mo.). HOME SALE PRICES It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively low housing costs.This indicates that one owner household is living in a"lower value"unit. It does not indicate that units at this price point are available on the current market. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 25 OF 55 If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current achievable market prices. For this reason,many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant. For reference,this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the market(Figure 4.7). • The median sale price was$860,000. • The average(mean)sale price was$1,075,000. • The average price per square foot was$430/s.f. • The median square footage was 2,300 s.f. FIGURE 4.7:LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES(12 MONTHS) Home Sales by Unit Type Home Sales by Price Level $900,000+ 319 $800,000-$899,000 66 20% $700,000-$799,000 67 $600,000-$699,000 56 8% $500,000-$599,000 ■ 39 0 ° 72% $400,000-$499,000 . 31 $300,000-$399,000 . 47 $200,000-$299,000 ■ 43 $100,000-$199,000 13 Detached Home Manuf. Home <$100,000 0 Attached Home Condo 0 100 200 300 400 Sources: RMLS,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • 48%of sales were priced above$900,000. • 34%of sales were priced between$500,000 and$899,000. • Only 18%of sales were priced at less than $500,000. • Only 7%of sales were priced below$300,000. Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75%of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least $600,000. Homes in this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the median household income of$123,000. Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the current for-sale market(75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households. The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following section. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 26 OF 55 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The projected future(20-year) housing profile(Figure 5.1)in the study area is based on the current housing profile (2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate. The projected future growth is the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region.This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1%per year.' FIGURE 5.1:FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE(2043),LAKE OSWEGO PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023-2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1.7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied Units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0% Stabilized vacancy assumption Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Metro,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC *Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population,household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1 The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons,meaning more smaller households to house the same population. (The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.) 7 The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis. To comply with state rules,the analysis relies on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC)and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast.The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state. The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1%between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05%per year.Many community members in Lake Oswego,including members of the project Task Force,as well as members of the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected growth rates,but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict,the deficit of land available to accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume remaining buildable land more quickly,potentially running out of buildable land within several years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six years;thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population forecast,if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends.It will be important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to continue to monitor actual growth patterns,as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected,the City will need to identify and implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near term. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 27 OF 55 PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND(2043) The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step. Therefore,the need identified below is the total need for actual households in occupied units(19,298). The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of each.The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households. The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing costs,from 30%for low income households down to 20%for the highest income households. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%,with 10% down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the future, these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand. Income levels and price levels are presented in 2023 dollars. Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand(current and new households,without vacancy) in 2043. FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND(2043),LAKE OSWEGO Ownership #of Price Range Households Income Range %of Total Cumulative $0k-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% Extremely <30%MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low <50%MFI $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% I Income $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80%MFI $350k-$440k 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental #of Rent Level Households Income Range %of Total Cumulative $0-$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% Extremely <30%MFI $400-$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% li Low Income $700-$900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50%MFI $900-$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% I Income $1300-$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80%MFI $1800-$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 %of All: 30.3% 19,298 Sources: Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 28 OF 55 The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next 20 years to under 70%from 71%. COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above(Figure 5.2)was compared to the current housing inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and price range(Figure 5.3). This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units. An average vacancy rate of 5%is assumed for the purpose of this analysis. FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS(2043),LAKE OSWEGO OWNERSHIP HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0% Percentage: 69.2% 12.9% 3.1% 5.6% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home othertem P Units Units Totals: 52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0% Percentage: 5.5% 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% Sources: PSU,City of Lake Oswego,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043. • Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be rental units.This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than ownership units. • There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges($300k to$600k). • The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points. Market rents are currently clustered in the $1,300 to $2,200 range in current dollars.Therefore, most units are to be found in this range. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 29 OF 55 ■ There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to maintain housing costs that are affordable(see more detail below). Needed Unit Types The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership households over the next 20 years. However,an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers. ■ 39%of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is projected to be some form of attached housing. ■ Single attached units(townhomes on individual lots)are projected to meet roughly 11%of future need. These are defined as units on separate tax lots,attached by a wall but separately metered,the most common example being townhome units. ■ Duplex,triplex,and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16%of the total need, reflecting new state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement unit.) ■ 34%of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+attached units. ■ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of some low-income households for both ownership and rental. ■ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are projected to be attached forms. ■ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings,with 62% projected in rental properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes. Group Housing Needs:There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population growth is modest. In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego's group housing population lives in nursing facilities. NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment,based on the projected demographics of new households to the market area.The needed affordability levels presented here are based on current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels. Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of "low income" used to set rent and income limits for various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income in Clackamas County of$106k in 2022, based on a family of four,while the median income in Lake Oswego was a higher$123k. For this analysis,the estimated Median Family Income(MFI)for a family of four($106k)was adjusted to match the average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the city average. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 29 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 30 OF 55 Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable unit or voucher to find housing affordability.Those at 60%to 100%MFI may find housing in older and substandard market rate rentals, manufactured homes,and middle housing types. FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Income Level Owner Renter Household Income Segment Total Share Common Housing Product (Rounded) Units Units Government-subsidized;Voucher; Extremely Low Inc. <30%MFI <$27,500 56 149 205 10% Shelter;Transitional Aging/substandard rentals; Very Low Income 30%-60%MFI $27.5k-$55k 95 221 317 16% Government-subsidized;Voucher; Manufactured homes Aging apartments;Government- Low Income 60%-80%MFI $55k-$73k 71 120 190 10% subsidized; Plexes;Aging single- detached;Small homes Single-detached homes; Middle Income 80%-120%MFI $73k-$11ok 134 172 306 16% Townhomes;Condominiums; Newer apartments Single-detached homes; Upper Income >120%MFI >$110,000 669 282 951 48% Townhomes;Condominiums; New apartments TOTAL: 1,024 944 1,968 100% Sources: HUD,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS ■ Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current need for more affordable units. For all households,current and new,to pay 30%or less of their income towards housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to become less expensive to meet the needs of current households. ■ There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum ($900 and less). ■ The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes, condos,and small detached homes,often on smaller lots. Subsidized Affordability Housing Need As alluded to in Figure 5.4,some low-income households,and particularly the lowest income households,typically need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and other household spending needs. Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043.The table uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common affordability level for tax credit properties. ■ There is an existing and on-going need at these levels,based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas County. An estimated 12%of households qualify as at least"low income"or lower on the income scale,while CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 30 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 31 OF 55 9% of households qualify as "extremely low income". (Again, this is based on the official state measure of Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs, which is relatively high.) FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT Low INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Current Need(2022) Future Need(2043) NEW Need(20-Year) Affordablilty Level Income Level* #of Units %of All #of Units %of All #of Units %of All Extremely Low Inc. <30%MFI < $26,800 1,492 9% 1,697 9% 205 10% Very Low Income 30%-50%MEI <_ $44,700 1,560 9% 1,771 9% 212 11% Low Income 50%-80%MFI <_ $71,600 2,075 12% 2,370 12% 295 15% TOTAL: 580%MFI _< $71,600 5,127 29% 5,839 30% 712 36% Tax Credit <_60%MFI <_ $53,700 3,962 23% 4,483 23% 521 26% Sources: OHCS,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,HUD * Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg.Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons. ■ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income households and many other low-income households at "affordable" housing cost levels. Often the lowest income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are more likely to serve those earning 50%to 60%of MFI. Housing Need for People Experiencing Homelessness: Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to maintain a fairly stable number of unhoused individuals and households over this period. Unhoused individuals and families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances,ranging from emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-income population shown in prior figures. Agricultural Worker Housing:There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the planning period. However,this population may also be served by other available affordable units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 31 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 32 OF 55 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED (2043) & LAND SUPPLY This section summarizes the results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). The BLI is presented in detail in an accompanying memo to this report. The BLI was conducted for land within the city limits, assessing vacant and partially vacant lands based on residential zoning, and environmental and other constraints that may impact development. The following table (Figure 6.1) presents the estimated new unit capacity of the buildable lands identified in the City of Lake Oswego and within the UGB. Residential zones, as well as mixed-use zones that can accommodate some residential uses, were included in the inventory, and are broken into broad categories based on housing density. FIGURE 6.1: ESTIMATED BUILDABLE LANDS CAPACITY BY ACREAGE AND NO.OF UNITS(2023) ACRES ACREAGE Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Land Type Acres Area(Acres) Area(Acres) Acres Capacity Residential 3,530 802 2,784 174 705 Mixed Use 490 96 397 10 146 Non-Residential 172 21 150 - - Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - - Acres Total: 7,339 2,193 5,230 185 851 UNITS UNIT TYPE Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Unit Housing Type Units Units Units Capacity Residential 648 39 17 705 Mixed Use 5 23 118 146 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Vacant and Partially Vacant Total: 653 62 135 851 Additional Capacity Approved Developments 2 23 341 366 Additional Middle Housing Infill - 110 - 110 TOTAL HOUSING UNIT CAPACITY: 655 195 476 1,327 Source: MIG • There is a total estimated remaining capacity of 1,327 units of different types within the study area. • The estimated remaining capacity for low density housing units remains the greatest share at capacity for 655 units,or 49%of the total. • There is a total estimated capacity for 195 middle housing units, including future infill in low density zones. This is roughly 15%of the total unit capacity. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 32 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 33 OF 55 • There is a total estimated capacity for 476 housing units in higher density multi-dwelling properties. This is roughly 36%of the total unit capacity. • 28%of the total capacity(366 units) is found in units already approved for development as of the time of this analysis.Additional infill opportunities identified on large-lot residential and some commercial lands account for an estimated 8%of capacity. See the attached Appendix for full Buildable Land Inventory details and methodology. The following table summarizes the forecasted future unit need for Lake Oswego. These are the summarized results from Section V of this report, presented here for reference. FIGURE 6.2: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED FUTURE UNIT NEED(2043) TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3 or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% New Units Needed Single Detached Homes 760 a) Townhomes 220 2 -4 Plex Units 309 oa c 3 5 or More Units 677 Manufactured Homes 3 00 OO OO 00 0`)'L O cb y0 Housing Units Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Census,Johnson Economics Comparison of Housing Need and Capacity There is a total forecasted need for nearly 2,000 units over the next 20 years based on the forecasted growth rate. This is greater than the estimated total capacity of 1,327 units. Figure 6.3 below presents a comparison of the BLI capacity for new housing units, compared to the estimate for new unit need by 2043. It breaks down need by general zoning category(LDR, MDR, HDR). • The projected demand for low-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 192 units,or the equivalent of 38 acres of low density residential land. • The results find a deficit for medium-density housing of 249 units,or 31 acres. • The projected demand for high-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 201 units,or the equivalent of 17 acres of high density residential land. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 33 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 34 OF 55 • These findings assume that under newly adopted state rules,3%of available buildable parcels in the LDR zone will be used for the various types of attached units(single-family attached townhomes,duplex—fourplex). FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate(0.05%) Zone& Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached & plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics • These findings point to a need for additional residential land in a range of zones over the 20-year planning period. Available inventory may meet an estimated 67% of total housing needs over the first half of the planning period, but a deficit is projected in the long run. • A range of potential housing policies and strategies will be considered in future development of a Housing Production Strategy by the City, including the ability of future plan areas to meet the need for different types of housing during the 20-year planning period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 34 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 35 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 APPENDIX A: LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY Methodology and Results I July 18, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1:Study Area and Land Classification. This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development.This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation,then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits.' 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGRAppendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf 2 A prior version of this Buildable Lands Inventory included unannexed land outside of the Lake Oswego City Limits which has a City Comprehensive Plan designation.This land has been removed from the study area following APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 35 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 36 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 1.Study Area Map s - s SW-STEPHENSONST , y D lessF RpKwY m o S�ONE �, --a O , O 0 P yy� 1 r-- MELROSE ST i \o f i44 '5, i COU/VTRy it X C1 Ug RD II \y� J J 21 a �4 KRUSE WAY O� SO P AAVE '~^ MEADOWS RD Q A. * 111 v i� ,, �r fie- -a OUN7q� SW BON ..R1 p y-�. %t c4 Q' % N, N BiVp > z Z Prim Rp 1 \�O o 71 0 0 740 cc { O cc z o ‘ u_i `� o m > 3 i' �QQ�R P�F�\E`�B\VD S�{ORE 8<V cvEV PEE -_._/` ' �fi tIlirr-Nir x ILO �T o 1- cc sow J o o! w OR 0 GREENTREE PO z� OS `eR Y 2 �.27 N3 Ov 0,00K 0R S BRGISn (FL...._Y ¢ cr I-- �ill9 Z C' m \�pSRD�`' O'rF O, �ile `1'G CHILDS RD �� S 41O _,1 n PO U AP O t . Miles OREGOd 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Study Area ,IF:—/i Study Area Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other.Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning discussion with the City's Housing Production Strategy Task Force and Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)staff. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 36 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 37 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones R-15 Residential Low To provide lands for single-family residential development with R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential development with densities ranging from seven to eight R-5 dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities and supports the economic feasibility of new construction R-DD Zone and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved Residential and integrated with new development. Medium Density The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, R-6 and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 37 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 38 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Residential High R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per Density R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the Highway needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Commercial(HC) retail uses which require access to a market area larger than the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity. Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that Mixed Use (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 38 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 39 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area. Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 39 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 40 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations Portland "Co- Cammurnr � 4 22 c College--Syl+.i�•• I:: , in Creek f ^`:a tural m- ® 1 sF n • • f a � R�7.5 - � -.-—_' ,. ilLom ---- Milwaukie „F_ � �; Heights Tigard � �f.' °e'_ P `�- 4 R_ya R-io l' v.' 4p HC' R-5 � r M d R-6 Oak Grove PIL R-ya q --t• a i Al. PNn PEC Bonita •sw eon Arts_ -�, 'try., I[d Rd ' Wi �� r• ''S PNA J . .4, ., t. '.:., •.1.tia,.et...41:ali - , IV. SW Durham r as R-yo .1R 7__n5 w5 ' w Concord R.7.5 Cook Pa. Trolley Trail Durham R.1e iiR �aVatln T�N / PNA � ��� toy Clul, / GII R i5 t e Jer R-'S Esri,NASA,NGR,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, T iia later. Pro,. Rive rg rove Gamin,SafeGraph,Gyotechnolagies,Inc,METIINASA USES.Bureau of land Management,EPA,NPS, `f_ USDA Mary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts Legend =Lake Oseego I ,HC ,F C R.6 LAYER l=I aNA C R-7.5 MI CI ®IP c-0 I l R-DD =Cl/oC 0 MC _I R-Lb ME POW =CRIkD 0 NC CI R-Ls O WLG OC ®PC =NC/R-It p R-2 =SLG R-2.5 MI EC/R-0 I=oc 1=I R-3 0 WIG RMu 0 0.25 0.5 1 0 GC 0 OCJLF3 0 R-s Miles APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 40 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 41 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations Portland [,,,�___...iii,,, Community • o / .224 ` V Ceilege-sylva' Tryon Creek _ Y + State Natural • 14T 'p ! 4i � r-!.I i 1 PNA Milwaukle C }f}9rr `1.q., - R•�o.� ,/ Hefgh[s '7t °°WW1 _5 • 'F Tigard q 5 to RI I�� ��� _ n �.. �J F q6 [J Oak Grove --. R S 1 Mc — — OCIR.3 R xo - 0EC Bonita. _•- fr. .��.. q.�a R-7.5 �'�n = SW Ronlu Rd `s'^ Cr"—i. �• R." P _.S PNA � j R_7.5 ... '. GC d L emi PNA• 1, N.7 )G — o I SW Durham cc i - • • R-7.5 Concord R•5 . �� 1 I',- ^-R"i5 Cl Trolley-Dail •,-.r. aR Durham lE Lk 4 ir Rno Aillii laiin j / ��' .� aly[lob J .R,� ,�, Iillt# I l -. ler PNA V R' Esri,NASA,NGA,USGS,FE MA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks.State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, Tualatin Rive rg rove r I Gamin,SaleGraph,Ggorechnolagies,Inc.METVNASA,V5G5,Bureau of Land Management,EPA,NOS, I USDA cMary5.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 Laie Os.vego 0 HE I]ONE I=12•7.5 I AYFR DIP MliR-0 iRW 1. CI U MC 0 It-AU =SA E CRS) I—I NC ©12-15 fi WLG OC L EC U NCR-0 =11-2 0 WLG R-2.5 EC/R.-0 U OC =R-3 =WLG RMFI L FMU O OCR--3 C R-s =I<alrotherverues> 0 0.25 0.5 1 =GC OPF OR-6 Miles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for "Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows. This land is not included in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 41 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 42 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County, State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University, which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW As noted above, properties in this category are generally not included in the inventory. However, some specific parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 42 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 43 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification •me niu'ja ^ IVIIIYYdU \ ,___ I _ Y- r�11 pq ld ltr 7. 1 , I I rii t U \1 \,� ! � 1itt. 1''J 7r� ...W. t cif! k T.> 1L ) -1iiiiL ai \ ip IIL %Alt 1�I ji ir111�'li Oakleo 1t � kw. ,„ 811 r►. , 1-49IFIAPI-AWISL 47,----6 44141--W"murFATirk A ... Ai 1 IL r...t . 7. li dpik.. <Aril_ 4 ., 1 4".N.,..., ,,wawa.. AMINC#Flig, ..• •I , PI, 00.010morp.--00_,/•40e 44000110%-ailwAt-'' 1 i ill i ....--0,4 seAV.46., +lip I, .�• 1.7f� wine��•tic�!.P " Li y ... OR l r 4-411 . OF 44:601:14/7. 4111 - I I--- ‘''' ‘..IIM ir�r .- + J,>3l i. AYAt, � - r1,� ...%� , - - iltri , :- , sit '- N ,' 1 EE-til r11 1 •- y or') O---,A EOs t r r`'I- ��r 1 I I rov.I ��=`J' ,�11 t. C.-3 O y 6. . , I u !Miles e RFGO/ 0 1 0.5 1 S: 14y Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type ® Study Area Land Type Residential = Mixed Use Non-Residential = Public/Other APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 43 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 44 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies. Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated,while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts,which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 44 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 45 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development It s 1 1'1 IS'N STEPHENSON S7 9� y 1� 1 1 1 Ry SO /0: I m F x ®� :. <�SSFR I PR PKWY I 1 11 ONES FE r — — I m T.D IRE s ._J ♦. �O 1 I ° — o z = �w s 111 I _ +1 w` epN ; '' , ,p.ROSEST -c0,1►. €[ A8. r1,r'— . d 414 /i ':. G.ti¢g: "F *k.5 4 f COU/V7 le A'= • ` f7P 1 Sri'" f Sy` i'`7 .+`"fa� 1;I Ry CHUB RDA `I',1Z �u�_:t . ,1 ro p t. ram KRUSE WAY_ O4 Imo i91 12 0s"may AVE/ A MEA DOWS RD Q Q-\ . VSc.9nma i�In�11N�.•...•• e� • ��.� .n E z 1 SW-BONITA-RD�� ��24 q� vc:iri h .11111,----►r'' t�cl` 8L4D .4a.= �—'-f i y r+ �V .'' ,, , �� ,7 •I, r d 1 a j ER��E I�� s ���•. i. PEE 101 1, ► UpQ \- ' 1`'NOREg<VpI,t�- tSC' ,�♦ J14.A j l�� I r l Q9 �O OJT - i'.. H ■_•�! :;- �O! 1 it `4 5 ai. = 6G o GREE NTREE(v� s 0E- eft* 1. I O� - - 1 1 0� 9 0A � : 1 of i� �T �� 1 '� Q +,` Y Ov�R�pOK - .. S BERGIS.RD �, %, ,6 V� 1 1 1 .E1VAv 1 (+1 �. r y�- w — Q,O c —I I 1 1 l:f t• 1 • - o _ 1 4,- - n Q 4 J `s ` f f 11 RD Ste¢ --- RO �� 6\ "' 41.04J... '{I m O�\vos 54 SFMp �� CHlLDS RDA I1,0 I- pi L . :� .f JI (Miles � O��, EGO o S f , i Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints ® Study Area Major Roads Taxlots Greenway Mgmt. - Overlay District Slopes>25% FEMA Floodplain Sensitive Lands Overlay Habitat Benefit Areas {NBA) Resource Conservation Areas {RC) Resource Protection Areas(RP) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 45 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 46 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 Mixed Use 490 96 397 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Publicly Owned/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Tax assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value; • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces; • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information; • Review of recent aerial imagery; and • Discussion and review with City staff and the Housing Production Strategy(HPS)Task Force. Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted.Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 46 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 47 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 • Partially Vacant.This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones,this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with a building value below$200,000, %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size: These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix (see Error! Reference source not found.3) are a pplied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site. Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus Zone. Campus Research & 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of residential/non- (FMU) residential mix General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 47 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 48 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots,total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type. A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 175 Mixed Use 490 96 397 14 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 _ Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 189 APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 48 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 49 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land 7 c\F . F , ,,—.141 _ . QP`rJ ri J!! 1P SW STEPHENSON ST. Phi •,, /0 , t y 1! , a . 1 �� c u, I j/ c �• `�, l . ` , , _ram 4 '1•if ,, \ �` 1 -.MELROSE ST I - ! r �( " z>1 I- `� ,, -- •-� - t(R�USSE WAYS 1 • Q� _ A AVE eQ { --j 1 MEADOWS RD e Y) '�">; _ _, - `�' • SW'BONITA RD��7. i EA�P� QG .�c,��� 0 NTAI/y BfVD- 1 IR o No ; °� w.g�VD_ • Ev��E N irl leap , �P �SNQRE.g-r - `` ��IrIP 6y SO/ •ti. lir�wIZO j III ! r_ ti r� S: `q Ali IF o GREENTREAD-- '' 2� 0S- GFR (p ' ''''' 't' (') -,I / ; r 1 Q ` Y L 10J��pO tuft-'9 - S BERGIS/RD�jr ,, , �+ O 11 0C) r i.j F, r,o` • , ,:el 1 ¢ ,Pi 1 S A F a +^ + CHIEDS RD ' .. 1:1.iig,-1.� J c,-2• `..�111� Oy? b N O` :_4..,10 tAt., nIllinin At �l1l1■ii ■ j O ozs 05 �1^ s ■� { �� ~� 1. 011/11;S .ram Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status Constraints Development Status Developed Partially Vacant Vacant ® Study Area APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 49 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 50 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones. This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density and Housing Mix Table 4 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis.The proportion of units expected to be developed as Single Family Detached, Middle Housing, and Multi-Family are also shown. Table 4. Unit Density and Mix Assumptions Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net 95% 5% DU/AC net R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area.4.3 4.3 du/ac net 95% 5% du/ac net. R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 5.8 du/ac 95% 5% du/ac net • Residential-Medium Density Zones • R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, 'r8 du/ac per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for 90% 5% 5% single-family. 1,500 for townhouse. • R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac —8 du/ac 95% 5% theoretically possible. R-6 First Addition —7 du/ac Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for 95% 5% Single-Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 50 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 51 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 —12 du/ac 70% 10% 20% min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac).Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-W ^'12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% Mixed Use Zones West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes "'5 du/ac Grove "R-5 density or greater" Residential - 50% 50% Mixed Use (WLG RMU) West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes 35 du/ac expected in Grove Office- "R-5 density or greater" BFR Staging Site, - 20% 80% Commercial nothing in other areas (WLG OC) Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes Generally applies to Institutional "R-5 density or greater." Marylhurst University, (CI) Must have commercial on which is treated - - 100% ground floor. separately. Campus 54 du/ac for projects Research& that include residential Table 50.03.002-2 notes Development (-30%of the district, as - - 100% (CR&D) "R-5 density or greater" above) based on LU 19- 0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes ^'56 du/ac Commercial "R-5 density or greater." o (EC) Must have commercial on - - 100/ ground floor. Foothills Table 50.03.002-2 notes ^'56 du/ac Mixed Use "R-5 density or greater" - - 100% (FMU) General Table 50.03.002-2 notes —27 du/ac based on Commercial "R-5 density or greater." Mercantile project (LU (GC) Must have commercial on 18-0026) ground floor. Residential o 0 not allowed "In the GC- 25/ 75/ zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road." Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes 8 du/ac(or R-5 density) Commercial "R-5 density or greater" for the 10%that may - - 100% (HC) develop as residential APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 51 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 52 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes 67 du/ac for the 50% Commercial "R-5 density or greater." that may develop as (NC) Must have commercial on residential (based on LU - 50% 50% ground floor. _ 07-0031) Office Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes 21 du/ac for the 50% (OC) "R-5 density or greater" that may develop as residential (based on - - 100% Galewood Commons Apartments) Summary of Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area, and Table 6 shows the breakdown of capacity by zoning designation. Land with a known development approval has been removed and is accounted for in a later step. Table 5. Capacity of Residential and Mixed Use Land Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Residential 174 705 Mixed Use 10 146 Non-Residential - - Public/Other - - Total 185 851 Table 6. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Land Type Unit Capacity Residential Land 705 Mixed Use Land 146 EC/R-0 5 CR&D 14 R-0 2 EC 67 R-10 241 GC 12 R-10 Comp Plan 14 NC 23 R-15 131 NC/R-0 9 R-3 28 OC/R-3 5 R-5 116 R-0 8 R-7.5 149 WLG-OC 7 R-7.5 Comp Plan 3 WLG-R RMU 1 R-DD 12 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 3 Total Capacity: 851 Units APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 52 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 53 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 7.Mix of Unit Capacity on Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Unit Capacity Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Units Units Units Residential 705 648 39 17 Mixed Use 146 5 23 118 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Total 851 653 62 136 Additional Capacity: In addition to the capacity listed above,the following categories of additional residential unit capacity have been identified.These are listed in Table 7, along with the expected mix of housing units. • Approved Development. Several parcels have land use approvals and/or are actively undergoing development. Where information about the unit capacity of these approvals is known,that information is used as future capacity(rather than an average assumption based on the zoning designation).These approvals are listed in Table 8. • Additional Middle Housing Capacity: Due to the City's middle housing legislation, most single family lots can be converted to duplexes or other middle housing types.The number of new units expected to be created through this process in the planning horizon is estimated at 1.5%of developed lots with single-detached dwellings outside of PUDs/easements.This totals 110 Units3. • Redevelopment of Commercial Land and Town Centers: An initial "strike price" analysis4 found very few properties that appear to be good candidates for redevelopment at$30/sf.Value per square foot for many properties along Kruse Way and in Town Centers is generally$50/sf or greater.There may be some opportunity to utilize parking areas for new residential uses, depending on the City's development code and many other factors,though additional commercial infill is also a possibility. For the purposes of this BLI, no redevelopment capacity is assumed. 3 A previous version of this analysis assumed 3%of all single detached units, regardless of whether they were located in a PUD. Feedback from stakeholders and DLCD was that this infill assumption seemed high and was unrealistic due to the prevalence of CC&Rs in Lake Oswego. "Strike Price" is a measure of land and building value per square foot at which a developer is assumed to be able to profitably redevelop a piece of property.The 2018 Metro BLI used a strike price of$12/sf for suburban jurisdictions—this analysis examine a more aggressive$30/sf and still found very few candidates for redevelopment. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 53 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 54 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 8. Parcels with Approved Development and Assumed Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Multi- Land Type Taxlot(s) Family Capacity Units Housing Units Units 21E18AB00400 Habitat for Humanity 21E18AB00300 Townhomes 21E18AB00200 23 0 23 0 [Link] 21E18AB00100 21E18AA00400 5400 Meadows [Link] 21E07BA00900 160 0 0 160 21E08AB02100 Twin Fir Road 2 2 0 0 21E08AB02000 The Boulder 21E07DD02300 [Link] 21E07DD02500 11 0 0 11 21E14DB02900 21E14 00300 21E14 00400 21E14 00401 21E14 00402 Marylhurst University 21E14 00403 170 0 0 170 21E14 00404 21E14 90000 21E14 900A1 21E14 900B2 Total 366 2 23 341 Table 9.Summary of Unit Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Capacity Units Units Units Vacant & Partially 851 653 62 136 Vacant Land Approved 366 2 23 341 Developments Additional Middle Housing Infill 110 110 Total 1,327 655 195 477 Next Steps This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. It forms part of the factual basis for City policies to address any deficiencies in unit capacity. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 54 AN 24-0001 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 55 OF 55